LightGTS: A Lightweight General Time Series Forecasting Model

Existing works on general time series forecasting build foundation models with heavy model parameters through large-scale multi-source pre-training. These models achieve superior generalization ability across various datasets at the cost of significant computational burdens and limitations in resource-constrained scenarios. This paper introduces LightGTS, a lightweight general time series forecasting model designed from the perspective of consistent periodical modeling. To handle diverse scales and intrinsic periods in multi-source pre-training, we introduce Periodical Tokenization, which extracts consistent periodic patterns across different datasets with varying scales. To better utilize the periodicity in the decoding process, we further introduce Periodical Parallel Decoding, which leverages historical tokens to improve forecasting. Based on the two techniques above which fully leverage the inductive bias of periods inherent in time series, LightGTS uses a lightweight model to achieve outstanding performance on general time series forecasting. It achieves state-of-the-art forecasting performance on 9 real-world benchmarks in both zero-shot and full-shot settings with much better efficiency compared with existing time series foundation models.

$K^2$VAE: A Koopman-Kalman Enhanced Variational AutoEncoder for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting (PTSF) plays a crucial role in decision-making across various fields, including economics, energy, and transportation. Most existing methods excell at short-term forecasting, while overlooking the hurdles of Long-term Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting (LPTSF). As the forecast horizon extends, the inherent nonlinear dynamics have a significant adverse effect on prediction accuracy, and make generative models inefficient by increasing the cost of each iteration. To overcome these limitations, we introduce $K^2$VAE, an efficient VAE-based generative model that leverages a KoopmanNet to transform nonlinear time series into a linear dynamical system, and devises a KalmanNet to refine predictions and model uncertainty in such linear system, which reduces error accumulation in long-term forecasting. Extensive experiments demonstrate that $K^2$VAE outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both short- and long-term PTSF, providing a more efficient and accurate solution.

Rethinking Irregular Time Series Forecasting: A Simple yet Effective Baseline

The forecasting of irregular multivariate time series (IMTS) is crucial in key areas such as healthcare, biomechanics, climate science, and astronomy. However, achieving accurate and practical predictions is challenging due to two main factors. First, the inherent irregularity and data missingness in irregular time series make modeling difficult. Second, most existing methods are typically complex and resource-intensive. In this study, we propose a general framework called APN to address these challenges. Specifically, we design a novel Time-Aware Patch Aggregation (TAPA) module that achieves adaptive patching. By learning dynamically adjustable patch boundaries and a time-aware weighted averaging strategy, TAPA transforms the original irregular sequences into high-quality, regularized representations in a channel-independent manner. Additionally, we use a simple query module to effectively integrate historical information while maintaining the model's efficiency. Finally, predictions are made by a shallow MLP. Experimental results on multiple real-world datasets show that APN outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods in both efficiency and accuracy.

AimTS: Augmented Series and Image Contrastive Learning for Time Series Classification

Time series classification (TSC) is an important task in time series analysis. Existing TSC methods mainly train on each single domain separately, suffering from a degradation in accuracy when the samples for training are insufficient in certain domains. The pre-training and fine-tuning paradigm provides a promising direction for solving this problem. However, time series from different domains are substantially divergent, which challenges the effective pre-training on multi-source data and the generalization ability of pre-trained models. To handle this issue, we introduce Augmented Series and Image Contrastive Learning for Time Series Classification (AimTS), a pre-training framework that learns generalizable representations from multi-source time series data. We propose a two-level prototype-based contrastive learning method to effectively utilize various augmentations in multi-source pre-training, which learns representations for TSC that can be generalized to different domains. In addition, considering augmentations within the single time series modality are insufficient to fully address classification problems with distribution shift, we introduce the image modality to supplement structural information and establish a series-image contrastive learning to improve the generalization of the learned representations for TSC tasks. Extensive experiments show that after multi-source pre-training, AimTS achieves good generalization performance, enabling efficient learning and even few-shot learning on various downstream TSC datasets.

Learning Generalizable Skills from Offline Multi-Task Data for Multi-Agent Cooperation

Learning cooperative multi-agent policy from offline multi-task data that can generalize to unseen tasks with varying numbers of agents and targets is an attractive problem in many scenarios. Although aggregating general behavior patterns among multiple tasks as skills to improve policy transfer is a promising approach, two primary challenges hinder the further advancement of skill learning in offline multi-task MARL. Firstly, extracting general cooperative behaviors from various action sequences as common skills lacks bringing cooperative temporal knowledge into them. Secondly, existing works only involve common skills and can not adaptively choose independent knowledge as task-specific skills in each task for fine-grained action execution. To tackle these challenges, we propose Hierarchical and Separate Skill Discovery (HiSSD), a novel approach for generalizable offline multi-task MARL through skill learning. HiSSD leverages a hierarchical framework that jointly learns common and task-specific skills. The common skills learn cooperative temporal knowledge and enable in-sample exploitation for offline multi-task MARL. The task-specific skills represent the priors of each task and achieve a task-guided fine-grained action execution. To verify the advancement of our method, we conduct experiments on multi-agent MuJoCo and SMAC benchmarks. After training the policy using HiSSD on offline multi-task data, the empirical results show that HiSSD assigns effective cooperative behaviors and obtains superior performance in unseen tasks.

Data Driven Decision Making with Time Series and Spatio-temporal Data

Time series data captures properties that change over time. Such data occurs widely, ranging from the scientific and medical domains to the industrial and environmental domains. When the properties in time series exhibit spatial variations, we often call the data spatio-temporal. As part of the continued digitalization of processes throughout society, increasingly large volumes of time series and spatio-temporal data are available. In this tutorial, we focus on data-driven decision making with such data, e.g., enabling greener and more efficient transportation based on traffic time series forecasting. The tutorial adopts the holistic paradigm of "data-governance-analytics-decision." We first introduce the data foundation of time series and spatio-temporal data, which is often heterogeneous. Next, we discuss data governance methods that aim to improve data quality. We then cover data analytics, focusing on five desired characteristics: automation, robustness, generality, explainability, and resource efficiency. We finally cover data-driven decision making strategies and briefly discuss promising research directions. We hope that the tutorial will serve as a primary resource for researchers and practitioners who are interested in value creation from time series and spatio-temporal data.

RCRank: Multimodal Ranking of Root Causes of Slow Queries in Cloud Database Systems

With the continued migration of storage to cloud database systems,the impact of slow queries in such systems on services and user experience is increasing. Root-cause diagnosis plays an indispensable role in facilitating slow-query detection and revision. This paper proposes a method capable of both identifying possible root cause types for slow queries and ranking these according to their potential for accelerating slow queries. This enables prioritizing root causes with the highest impact, in turn improving slow-query revision effectiveness. To enable more accurate and detailed diagnoses, we propose the multimodal Ranking for the Root Causes of slow queries (RCRank) framework, which formulates root cause analysis as a multimodal machine learning problem and leverages multimodal information from query statements, execution plans, execution logs, and key performance indicators. To obtain expressive embeddings from its heterogeneous multimodal input, RCRank integrates self-supervised pre-training that enhances cross-modal alignment and task relevance. Next, the framework integrates root-cause-adaptive cross Transformers that enable adaptive fusion of multimodal features with varying characteristics. Finally, the framework offers a unified model that features an impact-aware training objective for identifying and ranking root causes. We report on experiments on real and synthetic datasets, finding that RCRank is capable of consistently outperforming the state-of-the-art methods at root cause identification and ranking according to a range of metrics.

Assessing Pre-trained Models for Transfer Learning through Distribution of Spectral Components

Pre-trained model assessment for transfer learning aims to identify the optimal candidate for the downstream tasks from a model hub, without the need of time-consuming fine-tuning. Existing advanced works mainly focus on analyzing the intrinsic characteristics of the entire features extracted by each pre-trained model or how well such features fit the target labels. This paper proposes a novel perspective for pre-trained model assessment through the Distribution of Spectral Components (DISCO). Through singular value decomposition of features extracted from pre-trained models, we investigate different spectral components and observe that they possess distinct transferability, contributing diversely to the fine-tuning performance. Inspired by this, we propose an assessment method based on the distribution of spectral components which measures the proportions of their corresponding singular values. Pre-trained models with features concentrating on more transferable components are regarded as better choices for transfer learning. We further leverage the labels of downstream data to better estimate the transferability of each spectral component and derive the final assessment criterion. Our proposed method is flexible and can be applied to both classification and regression tasks. We conducted comprehensive experiments across three benchmarks and two tasks including image classification and object detection, demonstrating that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in choosing proper pre-trained models from the model hub for transfer learning.

EasyTime: Time Series Forecasting Made Easy

Time series forecasting has important applications across diverse domains. EasyTime, the system we demonstrate, facilitates easy use of time-series forecasting methods by researchers and practitioners alike. First, EasyTime enables one-click evaluation, enabling researchers to evaluate new forecasting methods using the suite of diverse time series datasets collected in the preexisting time series forecasting benchmark (TFB). This is achieved by leveraging TFB's flexible and consistent evaluation pipeline. Second, when practitioners must perform forecasting on a new dataset, a nontrivial first step is often to find an appropriate forecasting method. EasyTime provides an Automated Ensemble module that combines the promising forecasting methods to yield superior forecasting accuracy compared to individual methods. Third, EasyTime offers a natural language Q&A module leveraging large language models. Given a question like "Which method is best for long term forecasting on time series with strong seasonality?", EasyTime converts the question into SQL queries on the database of results obtained by TFB and then returns an answer in natural language and charts. By demonstrating EasyTime, we intend to show how it is possible to simplify the use of time series forecasting and to offer better support for the development of new generations of time series forecasting methods.

DUET: Dual Clustering Enhanced Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

Multivariate time series forecasting is crucial for various applications, such as financial investment, energy management, weather forecasting, and traffic optimization. However, accurate forecasting is challenging due to two main factors. First, real-world time series often show heterogeneous temporal patterns caused by distribution shifts over time. Second, correlations among channels are complex and intertwined, making it hard to model the interactions among channels precisely and flexibly. In this study, we address these challenges by proposing a general framework called \textbf{DUET}, which introduces \underline{DU}al clustering on the temporal and channel dimensions to \underline{E}nhance multivariate \underline{T}ime series forecasting. First, we design a Temporal Clustering Module (TCM) that clusters time series into fine-grained distributions to handle heterogeneous temporal patterns. For different distribution clusters, we design various pattern extractors to capture their intrinsic temporal patterns, thus modeling the heterogeneity. Second, we introduce a novel Channel-Soft-Clustering strategy and design a Channel Clustering Module (CCM), which captures the relationships among channels in the frequency domain through metric learning and applies sparsification to mitigate the adverse effects of noisy channels. Finally, DUET combines TCM and CCM to incorporate both the temporal and channel dimensions. Extensive experiments on 25 real-world datasets from 10 application domains, demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of DUET.