Physics-informed generative neural network: an application to troposphere temperature prediction

The troposphere is one of the atmospheric layers where most weather phenomena occur. Temperature variations in the troposphere, especially at 500 hPa, a typical level of the middle troposphere, are significant indicators of future weather changes. Numerical weather prediction is effective for temperature prediction, but its computational complexity hinders a timely response. This paper proposes a novel temperature prediction approach in framework ofphysics-informed deep learning. The new model, called PGnet, builds upon a generative neural network with a mask matrix. The mask is designed to distinguish the low-quality predicted regions generated by the first physical stage. The generative neural network takes the mask as prior for the second-stage refined predictions. A mask-loss and a jump pattern strategy are developed to train the generative neural network without accumulating errors during making time-series predictions. Experiments on ERA5 demonstrate that PGnet can generate more refined temperature predictions than the state-of-the-art.

PAC-Bayes Bounds for Meta-learning with Data-Dependent Prior

By leveraging experience from previous tasks, meta-learning algorithms can achieve effective fast adaptation ability when encountering new tasks. However it is unclear how the generalization property applies to new tasks. Probably approximately correct (PAC) Bayes bound theory provides a theoretical framework to analyze the generalization performance for meta-learning. We derive three novel generalisation error bounds for meta-learning based on PAC-Bayes relative entropy bound. Furthermore, using the empirical risk minimization (ERM) method, a PAC-Bayes bound for meta-learning with data-dependent prior is developed. Experiments illustrate that the proposed three PAC-Bayes bounds for meta-learning guarantee a competitive generalization performance guarantee, and the extended PAC-Bayes bound with data-dependent prior can achieve rapid convergence ability.

GenCos' Behaviors Modeling Based on Q Learning Improved by Dichotomy

Q learning is widely used to simulate the behaviors of generation companies (GenCos) in an electricity market. However, existing Q learning method usually requires numerous iterations to converge, which is time-consuming and inefficient in practice. To enhance the calculation efficiency, a novel Q learning algorithm improved by dichotomy is proposed in this paper. This method modifies the update process of the Q table by dichotomizing the state space and the action space step by step. Simulation results in a repeated Cournot game show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Deep Variational Luenberger-type Observer for Stochastic Video Prediction

Considering the inherent stochasticity and uncertainty, predicting future video frames is exceptionally challenging. In this work, we study the problem of video prediction by combining interpretability of stochastic state space models and representation learning of deep neural networks. Our model builds upon an variational encoder which transforms the input video into a latent feature space and a Luenberger-type observer which captures the dynamic evolution of the latent features. This enables the decomposition of videos into static features and dynamics in an unsupervised manner. By deriving the stability theory of the nonlinear Luenberger-type observer, the hidden states in the feature space become insensitive with respect to the initial values, which improves the robustness of the overall model. Furthermore, the variational lower bound on the data log-likelihood can be derived to obtain the tractable posterior prediction distribution based on the variational principle. Finally, the experiments such as the Bouncing Balls dataset and the Pendulum dataset are provided to demonstrate the proposed model outperforms concurrent works.

An Empirical Comparison of FAISS and FENSHSES for Nearest Neighbor Search in Hamming Space

In this paper, we compare the performances of FAISS and FENSHSES on nearest neighbor search in Hamming space--a fundamental task with ubiquitous applications in nowadays eCommerce. Comprehensive evaluations are made in terms of indexing speed, search latency and RAM consumption. This comparison is conducted towards a better understanding on trade-offs between nearest neighbor search systems implemented in main memory and the ones implemented in secondary memory, which is largely unaddressed in literature.

DOB-Net: Actively Rejecting Unknown Excessive Time-Varying Disturbances

This paper presents an observer-integrated Reinforcement Learning (RL) approach, called Disturbance OBserver Network (DOB-Net), for robots operating in environments where disturbances are unknown and time-varying, and may frequently exceed robot control capabilities. The DOB-Net integrates a disturbance dynamics observer network and a controller network. Originated from classical DOB mechanisms, the observer is built and enhanced via Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), encoding estimation of past values and prediction of future values of unknown disturbances in RNN hidden state. Such encoding allows the controller generate optimal control signals to actively reject disturbances, under the constraints of robot control capabilities. The observer and the controller are jointly learned within policy optimization by advantage actor critic. Numerical simulations on position regulation tasks have demonstrated that the proposed DOB-Net significantly outperforms a canonical feedback controller and classical RL algorithms.

Empowering Elasticsearch with Exact and Fast $r$-Neighbor Search in Hamming Space

A growing interest has been witnessed recently in building nearest neighbor search solutions within Elasticsearch--one of the most popular full-text search engines. In this paper, we focus specifically on Hamming space nearest neighbor search using Elasticsearch. By combining three techniques: bit operation, substring filtering and data preprocessing with permutation, we develop a novel approach called FENSHSES (Fast Exact Neighbor Search in Hamming Space on Elasticsearch), which achieves dramatic speed-ups over the existing term match baseline. This will empower Elasticsearch with the capability of fast information retrieval even when documents (e.g., texts, images and sounds) are represented with binary codes--a common practice in nowadays semantic representation learning.

Deep Uncertainty Learning: A Machine Learning Approach for Weather Forecasting

This paper uses the weather forecasting as an application background to illustrate the technique of \textit{deep uncertainty learning} (DUL). Weather forecasting has great significance throughout human history and is traditionally approached through numerical weather prediction (NWP) in which the atmosphere is modelled as differential equations. However, due to the instability of these differential equations in the presence of uncertainties, weather forecasting through numerical simulations may not be reliable. This paper explores weather forecasting as a data mining problem. We build a deep prediction interval (DPI) model based on sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) that predicts spatio-temporal patterns of meteorological variables in the future 37 hours, which incorporates the informative knowledge of NWP. A big contribution and surprising finding in the training process of DPI is that training by mean variance error (MVE) loss instead of mean square error loss can significantly improve the generalization of point estimation, which has never been reported in previous researches. We think this phenomenon can be regarded as a new kind of regularization which can not only be on a par with the famous Dropout but also provide more uncertainty information, and hence comes into win-win situation. Based on single DPI, we then build deep ensemble. We evaluate our method on dataset from 10 realistic weather stations in Beijing of China. Experimental results shown DPI has better generalization than traditional point estimation and deep ensemble can further improve the performance. The deep ensemble method also achieved top-2 online score ranking in the competition of AI Challenger 2018. It can dramatically decrease up to 56\% error compared with NWP.

Towards Practical Visual Search Engine within Elasticsearch

In this paper, we describe our end-to-end content-based image retrieval system built upon Elasticsearch, a well-known and popular textual search engine. As far as we know, this is the first time such a system has been implemented in eCommerce, and our efforts have turned out to be highly worthwhile. We end up with a novel and exciting visual search solution that is extremely easy to be deployed, distributed, scaled and monitored in a cost-friendly manner. Moreover, our platform is intrinsically flexible in supporting multimodal searches, where visual and textual information can be jointly leveraged in retrieval. The core idea is to encode image feature vectors into a collection of string tokens in a way such that closer vectors will share more string tokens in common. By doing that, we can utilize Elasticsearch to efficiently retrieve similar images based on similarities within encoded sting tokens. As part of the development, we propose a novel vector to string encoding method, which is shown to substantially outperform the previous ones in terms of both precision and latency. First-hand experiences in implementing this Elasticsearch-based platform are extensively addressed, which should be valuable to practitioners also interested in building visual search engine on top of Elasticsearch.