Informative Priors Improve the Reliability of Multimodal Clinical Data Classification

Machine learning-aided clinical decision support has the potential to significantly improve patient care. However, existing efforts in this domain for principled quantification of uncertainty have largely been limited to applications of ad-hoc solutions that do not consistently improve reliability. In this work, we consider stochastic neural networks and design a tailor-made multimodal data-driven (M2D2) prior distribution over network parameters. We use simple and scalable Gaussian mean-field variational inference to train a Bayesian neural network using the M2D2 prior. We train and evaluate the proposed approach using clinical time-series data in MIMIC-IV and corresponding chest X-ray images in MIMIC-CXR for the classification of acute care conditions. Our empirical results show that the proposed method produces a more reliable predictive model compared to deterministic and Bayesian neural network baselines.

Privacy-preserving machine learning for healthcare: open challenges and future perspectives

Machine Learning (ML) has recently shown tremendous success in modeling various healthcare prediction tasks, ranging from disease diagnosis and prognosis to patient treatment. Due to the sensitive nature of medical data, privacy must be considered along the entire ML pipeline, from model training to inference. In this paper, we conduct a review of recent literature concerning Privacy-Preserving Machine Learning (PPML) for healthcare. We primarily focus on privacy-preserving training and inference-as-a-service, and perform a comprehensive review of existing trends, identify challenges, and discuss opportunities for future research directions. The aim of this review is to guide the development of private and efficient ML models in healthcare, with the prospects of translating research efforts into real-world settings.

Deterioration Prediction using Time-Series of Three Vital Signs and Current Clinical Features Amongst COVID-19 Patients

Unrecognized patient deterioration can lead to high morbidity and mortality. Most existing deterioration prediction models require a large number of clinical information, typically collected in hospital settings, such as medical images or comprehensive laboratory tests. This is infeasible for telehealth solutions and highlights a gap in deterioration prediction models that are based on minimal data, which can be recorded at a large scale in any clinic, nursing home, or even at the patient's home. In this study, we propose and develop a prognostic model that predicts if a patient will experience deterioration in the forthcoming 3-24 hours. The model sequentially processes routine triadic vital signs: (a) oxygen saturation, (b) heart rate, and (c) temperature. The model is also provided with basic patient information, including sex, age, vaccination status, vaccination date, and status of obesity, hypertension, or diabetes. We train and evaluate the model using data collected from 37,006 COVID-19 patients at NYU Langone Health in New York, USA. The model achieves an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.808-0.880 for 3-24 hour deterioration prediction. We also conduct occlusion experiments to evaluate the importance of each input feature, where the results reveal the significance of continuously monitoring the variations of the vital signs. Our results show the prospect of accurate deterioration forecast using a minimum feature set that can be relatively easily obtained using wearable devices and self-reported patient information.

MedFuse: Multi-modal fusion with clinical time-series data and chest X-ray images

Multi-modal fusion approaches aim to integrate information from different data sources. Unlike natural datasets, such as in audio-visual applications, where samples consist of "paired" modalities, data in healthcare is often collected asynchronously. Hence, requiring the presence of all modalities for a given sample is not realistic for clinical tasks and significantly limits the size of the dataset during training. In this paper, we propose MedFuse, a conceptually simple yet promising LSTM-based fusion module that can accommodate uni-modal as well as multi-modal input. We evaluate the fusion method and introduce new benchmark results for in-hospital mortality prediction and phenotype classification, using clinical time-series data in the MIMIC-IV dataset and corresponding chest X-ray images in MIMIC-CXR. Compared to more complex multi-modal fusion strategies, MedFuse provides a performance improvement by a large margin on the fully paired test set. It also remains robust across the partially paired test set containing samples with missing chest X-ray images. We release our code for reproducibility and to enable the evaluation of competing models in the future.

Towards dynamic multi-modal phenotyping using chest radiographs and physiological data

The healthcare domain is characterized by heterogeneous data modalities, such as imaging and physiological data. In practice, the variety of medical data assists clinicians in decision-making. However, most of the current state-of-the-art deep learning models solely rely upon carefully curated data of a single modality. In this paper, we propose a dynamic training approach to learn modality-specific data representations and to integrate auxiliary features, instead of solely relying on a single modality. Our preliminary experiments results for a patient phenotyping task using physiological data in MIMIC-IV & chest radiographs in the MIMIC- CXR dataset show that our proposed approach achieves the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) (0.764 AUROC) compared to the performance of the benchmark method in previous work, which only used physiological data (0.740 AUROC). For a set of five recurring or chronic diseases with periodic acute episodes, including cardiac dysrhythmia, conduction disorders, and congestive heart failure, the AUROC improves from 0.747 to 0.798. This illustrates the benefit of leveraging the chest imaging modality in the phenotyping task and highlights the potential of multi-modal learning in medical applications.

Meta-repository of screening mammography classifiers

Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming medicine and showing promise in improving clinical diagnosis. In breast cancer screening, several recent studies show that AI has the potential to improve radiologists' accuracy, subsequently helping in early cancer diagnosis and reducing unnecessary workup. As the number of proposed models and their complexity grows, it is becoming increasingly difficult to re-implement them in order to reproduce the results and to compare different approaches. To enable reproducibility of research in this application area and to enable comparison between different methods, we release a meta-repository containing deep learning models for classification of screening mammograms. This meta-repository creates a framework that enables the evaluation of machine learning models on any private or public screening mammography data set. At its inception, our meta-repository contains five state-of-the-art models with open-source implementations and cross-platform compatibility. We compare their performance on five international data sets: two private New York University breast cancer screening data sets as well as three public (DDSM, INbreast and Chinese Mammography Database) data sets. Our framework has a flexible design that can be generalized to other medical image analysis tasks. The meta-repository is available at https://www.github.com/nyukat/mammography_metarepository.

Multi-Label Generalized Zero Shot Learning for the Classification of Disease in Chest Radiographs

Despite the success of deep neural networks in chest X-ray (CXR) diagnosis, supervised learning only allows the prediction of disease classes that were seen during training. At inference, these networks cannot predict an unseen disease class. Incorporating a new class requires the collection of labeled data, which is not a trivial task, especially for less frequently-occurring diseases. As a result, it becomes inconceivable to build a model that can diagnose all possible disease classes. Here, we propose a multi-label generalized zero shot learning (CXR-ML-GZSL) network that can simultaneously predict multiple seen and unseen diseases in CXR images. Given an input image, CXR-ML-GZSL learns a visual representation guided by the input's corresponding semantics extracted from a rich medical text corpus. Towards this ambitious goal, we propose to map both visual and semantic modalities to a latent feature space using a novel learning objective. The objective ensures that (i) the most relevant labels for the query image are ranked higher than irrelevant labels, (ii) the network learns a visual representation that is aligned with its semantics in the latent feature space, and (iii) the mapped semantics preserve their original inter-class representation. The network is end-to-end trainable and requires no independent pre-training for the offline feature extractor. Experiments on the NIH Chest X-ray dataset show that our network outperforms two strong baselines in terms of recall, precision, f1 score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/nyuad-cai/CXR-ML-GZSL.git

Clinical prediction system of complications among COVID-19 patients: a development and validation retrospective multicentre study

Existing prognostic tools mainly focus on predicting the risk of mortality among patients with coronavirus disease 2019. However, clinical evidence suggests that COVID-19 can result in non-mortal complications that affect patient prognosis. To support patient risk stratification, we aimed to develop a prognostic system that predicts complications common to COVID-19. In this retrospective study, we used data collected from 3,352 COVID-19 patient encounters admitted to 18 facilities between April 1 and April 30, 2020, in Abu Dhabi (AD), UAE. The hospitals were split based on geographical proximity to assess for our proposed system's learning generalizability, AD Middle region and AD Western & Eastern regions, A and B, respectively. Using data collected during the first 24 hours of admission, the machine learning-based prognostic system predicts the risk of developing any of seven complications during the hospital stay. The complications include secondary bacterial infection, AKI, ARDS, and elevated biomarkers linked to increased patient severity, including d-dimer, interleukin-6, aminotransferases, and troponin. During training, the system applies an exclusion criteria, hyperparameter tuning, and model selection for each complication-specific model. The system achieves good accuracy across all complications and both regions. In test set A (587 patient encounters), the system achieves 0.91 AUROC for AKI and >0.80 AUROC for most of the other complications. In test set B (225 patient encounters), the respective system achieves 0.90 AUROC for AKI, elevated troponin, and elevated interleukin-6, and >0.80 AUROC for most of the other complications. The best performing models, as selected by our system, were mainly gradient boosting models and logistic regression. Our results show that a data-driven approach using machine learning can predict the risk of such complications with high accuracy.

An artificial intelligence system for predicting the deterioration of COVID-19 patients in the emergency department

During the COVID-19 pandemic, rapid and accurate triage of patients at the emergency department is critical to inform decision-making. We propose a data-driven approach for automatic prediction of deterioration risk using a deep neural network that learns from chest X-ray images, and a gradient boosting model that learns from routine clinical variables. Our AI prognosis system, trained using data from 3,661 patients, achieves an AUC of 0.786 (95% CI: 0.742-0.827) when predicting deterioration within 96 hours. The deep neural network extracts informative areas of chest X-ray images to assist clinicians in interpreting the predictions, and performs comparably to two radiologists in a reader study. In order to verify performance in a real clinical setting, we silently deployed a preliminary version of the deep neural network at NYU Langone Health during the first wave of the pandemic, which produced accurate predictions in real-time. In summary, our findings demonstrate the potential of the proposed system for assisting front-line physicians in the triage of COVID-19 patients.