Agentic Test-Time Scaling for WebAgents

Test-time scaling has become a standard way to improve performance and boost reliability of neural network models. However, its behavior on agentic, multi-step tasks remains less well-understood: small per-step errors can compound over long horizons; and we find that naive policies that uniformly increase sampling show diminishing returns. In this work, we present CATTS, a simple technique for dynamically allocating compute for multi-step agents. We first conduct an empirical study of inference-time scaling for web agents. We find that uniformly increasing per-step compute quickly saturates in long-horizon environments. We then investigate stronger aggregation strategies, including an LLM-based Arbiter that can outperform naive voting, but that can overrule high-consensus decisions. We show that uncertainty statistics derived from the agent's own vote distribution (entropy and top-1/top-2 margin) correlate with downstream success and provide a practical signal for dynamic compute allocation. Based on these findings, we introduce Confidence-Aware Test-Time Scaling (CATTS), which uses vote-derived uncertainty to allocate compute only when decisions are genuinely contentious. CATTS improves performance on WebArena-Lite and GoBrowse by up to 9.1% over React while using up to 2.3x fewer tokens than uniform scaling, providing both efficiency gains and an interpretable decision rule.

Learning to Discover Iterative Spectral Algorithms

We introduce AutoSpec, a neural network framework for discovering iterative spectral algorithms for large-scale numerical linear algebra and numerical optimization. Our self-supervised models adapt to input operators using coarse spectral information (e.g., eigenvalue estimates and residual norms), and they predict recurrence coefficients for computing or applying a matrix polynomial tailored to a downstream task. The effectiveness of AutoSpec relies on three ingredients: an architecture whose inference pass implements short, executable numerical linear algebra recurrences; efficient training on small synthetic problems with transfer to large-scale real-world operators; and task-defined objectives that enforce the desired approximation or preconditioning behavior across the range of spectral profiles represented in the training set. We apply AutoSpec to discovering algorithms for representative numerical linear algebra tasks: accelerating matrix-function approximation; accelerating sparse linear solvers; and spectral filtering/preconditioning for eigenvalue computations. On real-world matrices, the learned procedures deliver orders-of-magnitude improvements in accuracy and/or reductions in iteration count, relative to basic baselines. We also find clear connections to classical theory: the induced polynomials often exhibit near-equiripple, near-minimax behavior characteristic of Chebyshev polynomials.

Is Flow Matching Just Trajectory Replay for Sequential Data?

Flow matching (FM) is increasingly used for time-series generation, but it is not well understood whether it learns a general dynamical structure or simply performs an effective "trajectory replay". We study this question by deriving the velocity field targeted by the empirical FM objective on sequential data, in the limit of perfect function approximation. For the Gaussian conditional paths commonly used in practice, we show that the implied sampler is an ODE whose dynamics constitutes a nonparametric, memory-augmented continuous-time dynamical system. The optimal field admits a closed-form expression as a similarity-weighted mixture of instantaneous velocities induced by past transitions, making the dataset dependence explicit and interpretable. This perspective positions neural FM models trained by stochastic optimization as parametric surrogates of an ideal nonparametric solution. Using the structure of the optimal field, we study sampling and approximation schemes that improve the efficiency and numerical robustness of ODE-based generation. On nonlinear dynamical system benchmarks, the resulting closed-form sampler yields strong probabilistic forecasts directly from historical transitions, without training.

Landscaper: Understanding Loss Landscapes Through Multi-Dimensional Topological Analysis

Loss landscapes are a powerful tool for understanding neural network optimization and generalization, yet traditional low-dimensional analyses often miss complex topological features. We present Landscaper, an open-source Python package for arbitrary-dimensional loss landscape analysis. Landscaper combines Hessian-based subspace construction with topological data analysis to reveal geometric structures such as basin hierarchy and connectivity. A key component is the Saddle-Minimum Average Distance (SMAD) for quantifying landscape smoothness. We demonstrate Landscaper's effectiveness across various architectures and tasks, including those involving pre-trained language models, showing that SMAD captures training transitions, such as landscape simplification, that conventional metrics miss. We also illustrate Landscaper's performance in challenging chemical property prediction tasks, where SMAD can serve as a metric for out-of-distribution generalization, offering valuable insights for model diagnostics and architecture design in data-scarce scientific machine learning scenarios.

Residual Context Diffusion Language Models

Diffusion Large Language Models (dLLMs) have emerged as a promising alternative to purely autoregressive language models because they can decode multiple tokens in parallel. However, state-of-the-art block-wise dLLMs rely on a "remasking" mechanism that decodes only the most confident tokens and discards the rest, effectively wasting computation. We demonstrate that recycling computation from the discarded tokens is beneficial, as these tokens retain contextual information useful for subsequent decoding iterations. In light of this, we propose Residual Context Diffusion (RCD), a module that converts these discarded token representations into contextual residuals and injects them back for the next denoising step. RCD uses a decoupled two-stage training pipeline to bypass the memory bottlenecks associated with backpropagation. We validate our method on both long CoT reasoning (SDAR) and short CoT instruction following (LLaDA) models. We demonstrate that a standard dLLM can be efficiently converted to the RCD paradigm with merely ~1 billion tokens. RCD consistently improves frontier dLLMs by 5-10 points in accuracy with minimal extra computation overhead across a wide range of benchmarks. Notably, on the most challenging AIME tasks, RCD nearly doubles baseline accuracy and attains up to 4-5x fewer denoising steps at equivalent accuracy levels.

PRISM: Distribution-free Adaptive Computation of Matrix Functions for Accelerating Neural Network Training

Matrix functions such as square root, inverse roots, and orthogonalization play a central role in preconditioned gradient methods for neural network training. This has motivated the development of iterative algorithms that avoid explicit eigendecompositions and rely primarily on matrix multiplications, making them well suited for modern GPU accelerators. We present PRISM (Polynomial-fitting and Randomized Iterative Sketching for Matrix functions computation), a general framework for accelerating iterative algorithms for computing matrix functions. PRISM combines adaptive polynomial approximation with randomized sketching: at each iteration, it fits a polynomial surrogate to the current spectrum via a sketched least-squares problem, adapting to the instance at hand with minimal overhead. We apply PRISM to accelerate Newton-Schulz-like iterations for matrix square roots and orthogonalization, which are core primitives in machine learning. Unlike prior methods, PRISM requires no explicit spectral bounds or singular value estimates; and it adapts automatically to the evolving spectrum. Empirically, PRISM accelerates training when integrated into Shampoo and Muon optimizers.

Zero-shot Forecasting by Simulation Alone

Zero-shot time-series forecasting holds great promise, but is still in its infancy, hindered by limited and biased data corpora, leakage-prone evaluation, and privacy and licensing constraints. Motivated by these challenges, we propose the first practical univariate time series simulation pipeline which is simultaneously fast enough for on-the-fly data generation and enables notable zero-shot forecasting performance on M-Series and GiftEval benchmarks that capture trend/seasonality/intermittency patterns, typical of industrial forecasting applications across a variety of domains. Our simulator, which we call SarSim0 (SARIMA Simulator for Zero-Shot Forecasting), is based off of a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model as its core data source. Due to instability in the autoregressive component, naive SARIMA simulation often leads to unusable paths. Instead, we follow a three-step procedure: (1) we sample well-behaved trajectories from its characteristic polynomial stability region; (2) we introduce a superposition scheme that combines multiple paths into rich multi-seasonality traces; and (3) we add rate-based heavy-tailed noise models to capture burstiness and intermittency alongside seasonalities and trends. SarSim0 is orders of magnitude faster than kernel-based generators, and it enables training on circa 1B unique purely simulated series, generated on the fly; after which well-established neural network backbones exhibit strong zero-shot generalization, surpassing strong statistical forecasters and recent foundation baselines, while operating under strict zero-shot protocol. Notably, on GiftEval we observe a "student-beats-teacher" effect: models trained on our simulations exceed the forecasting accuracy of the AutoARIMA generating processes.

The Forecast Critic: Leveraging Large Language Models for Poor Forecast Identification

Monitoring forecasting systems is critical for customer satisfaction, profitability, and operational efficiency in large-scale retail businesses. We propose The Forecast Critic, a system that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) for automated forecast monitoring, taking advantage of their broad world knowledge and strong ``reasoning'' capabilities. As a prerequisite for this, we systematically evaluate the ability of LLMs to assess time series forecast quality, focusing on three key questions. (1) Can LLMs be deployed to perform forecast monitoring and identify obviously unreasonable forecasts? (2) Can LLMs effectively incorporate unstructured exogenous features to assess what a reasonable forecast looks like? (3) How does performance vary across model sizes and reasoning capabilities, measured across state-of-the-art LLMs? We present three experiments, including on both synthetic and real-world forecasting data. Our results show that LLMs can reliably detect and critique poor forecasts, such as those plagued by temporal misalignment, trend inconsistencies, and spike errors. The best-performing model we evaluated achieves an F1 score of 0.88, somewhat below human-level performance (F1 score: 0.97). We also demonstrate that multi-modal LLMs can effectively incorporate unstructured contextual signals to refine their assessment of the forecast. Models correctly identify missing or spurious promotional spikes when provided with historical context about past promotions (F1 score: 0.84). Lastly, we demonstrate that these techniques succeed in identifying inaccurate forecasts on the real-world M5 time series dataset, with unreasonable forecasts having an sCRPS at least 10% higher than that of reasonable forecasts. These findings suggest that LLMs, even without domain-specific fine-tuning, may provide a viable and scalable option for automated forecast monitoring and evaluation.

Accelerating scientific discovery with the common task framework

Machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms are transforming and empowering the characterization and control of dynamic systems in the engineering, physical, and biological sciences. These emerging modeling paradigms require comparative metrics to evaluate a diverse set of scientific objectives, including forecasting, state reconstruction, generalization, and control, while also considering limited data scenarios and noisy measurements. We introduce a common task framework (CTF) for science and engineering, which features a growing collection of challenge data sets with a diverse set of practical and common objectives. The CTF is a critically enabling technology that has contributed to the rapid advance of ML/AI algorithms in traditional applications such as speech recognition, language processing, and computer vision. There is a critical need for the objective metrics of a CTF to compare the diverse algorithms being rapidly developed and deployed in practice today across science and engineering.

Understanding the Implicit Biases of Design Choices for Time Series Foundation Models

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are a class of potentially powerful, general-purpose tools for time series forecasting and related temporal tasks, but their behavior is strongly shaped by subtle inductive biases in their design. Rather than developing a new model and claiming that it is better than existing TSFMs, e.g., by winning on existing well-established benchmarks, our objective is to understand how the various ``knobs'' of the training process affect model quality. Using a mix of theory and controlled empirical evaluation, we identify several design choices (patch size, embedding choice, training objective, etc.) and show how they lead to implicit biases in fundamental model properties (temporal behavior, geometric structure, how aggressively or not the model regresses to the mean, etc.); and we show how these biases can be intuitive or very counterintuitive, depending on properties of the model and data. We also illustrate in a case study on outlier handling how multiple biases can interact in complex ways; and we discuss implications of our results for learning the bitter lesson and building TSFMs.