Counterfactual Multi-task Learning for Delayed Conversion Modeling in E-commerce Sales Pre-Promotion

Sales promotions, as short-term incentives to stimulate product purchases, play a pivotal role in modern e-commerce marketing strategies. During promotional events, user behavior patterns exhibit distinct characteristics compared to regular periods. In the pre-promotion phase, users typically engage in product search and browsing without immediate purchases, adding items to carts in anticipation of promotional discounts. This behavior leads to delayed conversions, resulting in significantly lower conversion rates (CVR) before the promotion day. Although existing research has made progress in CVR prediction for promotion days using historical data, it largely overlooks the critical pre-promotion period. And delayed feedback modeling has been extensively studied, current approaches fail to account for the unique distribution shifts in conversion behavior before promotional events, where delayed conversions predominantly occur on the promotion day rather than over continuous time windows. To address these limitations, we propose the Counterfactual Multi-task Delayed Conversion Model (CM-DCM), which leverages historical pre-promotion data to enhance CVR prediction for both delayed and direct conversions. Our model incorporates three key innovations: (i) A multi-task architecture that jointly models direct and delayed conversions using historical pre-promotion data; (ii) A personalized user behavior gating module to mitigate data sparsity issues during brief pre-promotion periods; (iii) A counterfactual causal approach to model the transition probability from add-to-cart (ATC) to delayed conversion. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CM-DCM outperforms baselines in pre-promotion scenarios. Online A/B tests during major promotional events showed significant improvements in advertising revenue, delayed conversion GMV, and overall GMV, validating the effectiveness of our approach.

RCLRec: Reverse Curriculum Learning for Modeling Sparse Conversions in Generative Recommendation

Conversion objectives in large-scale recommender systems are sparse, making them difficult to optimize. Generative recommendation (GR) partially alleviates data sparsity by organizing multi-type behaviors into a unified token sequence with shared representations, but conversion signals remain insufficiently modeled. While recent behavior-aware GR models encode behavior types and employ behavior-aware attention to highlight decision-related intermediate behaviors, they still rely on standard attention over the full history and provide no additional supervision for conversions, leaving conversion sparsity largely unresolved. To address these challenges, we propose RCLRec, a reverse curriculum learning-based GR framework for sparse conversion supervision. For each conversion target, RCLRec constructs a short curriculum by selecting a subsequence of conversion-related items from the history in reverse. Their semantic tokens are fed to the decoder as a prefix, together with the target conversion tokens, under a joint generation objective. This design provides additional instance-specific intermediate supervision, alleviating conversion sparsity and focusing the model on the user's critical decision process. We further introduce a curriculum quality-aware loss to ensure that the selected curricula are informative for conversion prediction. Experiments on offline datasets and an online A/B test show that RCLRec achieves superior performance, with +2.09% advertising revenue and +1.86% orders in online deployment.

AgenticRS-Architecture: System Design for Agentic Recommender Systems

AutoModel is an agent based architecture for the full lifecycle of industrial recommender systems. Instead of a fixed recall and ranking pipeline, AutoModel organizes recommendation as a set of interacting evolution agents with long term memory and self improvement capability. We instantiate three core agents along the axes of models, features, and resources: AutoTrain for model design and training, AutoFeature for data analysis and feature evolution, and AutoPerf for performance, deployment, and online experimentation. A shared coordination and knowledge layer connects these agents and records decisions, configurations, and outcomes. Through a case study of a module called paper autotrain, we show how AutoTrain automates paper driven model reproduction by closing the loop from method parsing to code generation, large scale training, and offline comparison, reducing manual effort for method transfer. AutoModel enables locally automated yet globally aligned evolution of large scale recommender systems and can be generalized to other AI systems such as search and advertising.

Rethinking Recommendation Paradigms: From Pipelines to Agentic Recommender Systems

Large-scale industrial recommenders typically use a fixed multi-stage pipeline (recall, ranking, re-ranking) and have progressed from collaborative filtering to deep and large pre-trained models. However, both multi-stage and so-called One Model designs remain essentially static: models are black boxes, and system improvement relies on manual hypotheses and engineering, which is hard to scale under heterogeneous data and multi-objective business constraints. We propose an Agentic Recommender System (AgenticRS) that reorganizes key modules as agents. Modules are promoted to agents only when they form a functionally closed loop, can be independently evaluated, and possess an evolvable decision space. For model agents, we outline two self-evolution mechanisms: reinforcement learning style optimization in well-defined action spaces, and large language model based generation and selection of new architectures and training schemes in open-ended design spaces. We further distinguish individual evolution of single agents from compositional evolution over how multiple agents are selected and connected, and use a layered inner and outer reward design to couple local optimization with global objectives. This provides a concise blueprint for turning static pipelines into self-evolving agentic recommender systems.

AgenticRS-EnsNAS: Ensemble-Decoupled Self-Evolving Architecture Search

Neural Architecture Search (NAS) deployment in industrial production systems faces a fundamental validation bottleneck: verifying a single candidate architecture pi requires evaluating the deployed ensemble of M models, incurring prohibitive O(M) computational cost per candidate. This cost barrier severely limits architecture iteration frequency in real-world applications where ensembles (M=50-200) are standard for robustness. This work introduces Ensemble-Decoupled Architecture Search, a framework that leverages ensemble theory to predict system-level performance from single-learner evaluation. We establish the Ensemble-Decoupled Theory with a sufficient condition for monotonic ensemble improvement under homogeneity assumptions: a candidate architecture pi yields lower ensemble error than the current baseline if rho(pi) < rho(pi_old) - (M / (M - 1)) * (Delta E(pi) / sigma^2(pi)), where Delta E, rho, and sigma^2 are estimable from lightweight dual-learner training. This decouples architecture search from full ensemble training, reducing per-candidate search cost from O(M) to O(1) while maintaining O(M) deployment cost only for validated winners. We unify solution strategies across pipeline continuity: (1) closed-form optimization for tractable continuous pi (exemplified by feature bagging in CTR prediction), (2) constrained differentiable optimization for intractable continuous pi, and (3) LLM-driven search with iterative monotonic acceptance for discrete pi. The framework reveals two orthogonal improvement mechanisms -- base diversity gain and accuracy gain -- providing actionable design principles for industrial-scale NAS. All theoretical derivations are rigorous with detailed proofs deferred to the appendix. Comprehensive empirical validation will be included in the journal extension of this work.

Deferred is Better: A Framework for Multi-Granularity Deferred Interaction of Heterogeneous Features

Click-through rate (CTR) prediction models estimates the probability of a user-item click by modeling interactions across a vast feature space. A fundamental yet often overlooked challenge is the inherent heterogeneity of these features: their sparsity and information content vary dramatically. For instance, categorical features like item IDs are extremely sparse, whereas numerical features like item price are relatively dense. Prevailing CTR models have largely ignored this heterogeneity, employing a uniform feature interaction strategy that inputs all features into the interaction layers simultaneously. This approach is suboptimal, as the premature introduction of low-information features can inject significant noise and mask the signals from information-rich features, which leads to model collapse and hinders the learning of robust representations. To address the above challenge, we propose a Multi-Granularity Information-Aware Deferred Interaction Network (MGDIN), which adaptively defers the introduction of features into the feature interaction process. MGDIN's core mechanism operates in two stages: First, it employs a multi-granularity feature grouping strategy to partition the raw features into distinct groups with more homogeneous information density in different granularities, thereby mitigating the effects of extreme individual feature sparsity and enabling the model to capture feature interactions from diverse perspectives. Second, a delayed interaction mechanism is implemented through a hierarchical masking strategy, which governs when and how each group participates by masking low-information groups in the early layers and progressively unmasking them as the network deepens. This deferred introduction allows the model to establish a robust understanding based on high-information features before gradually incorporating sparser information from other groups...

Bridging Sequential and Contextual Features with a Dual-View of Fine-grained Core-Behaviors and Global Interest-Distribution

Click-through rate (CTR) prediction tasks typically estimate the probability of a user clicking on a candidate item by modeling both user behavior sequence features and the item's contextual features, where the user behavior sequence is particularly critical as it dynamically reflects real-time shifts in user interest. Traditional CTR models often aggregate this dynamic sequence into a single vector before interacting it with contextual features. This approach, however, not only leads to behavior information loss during aggregation but also severely limits the model's capacity to capture interactions between contextual features and specific user behaviors, ultimately impairing its ability to capture fine-grained behavioral details and hindering models' prediction accuracy. Conversely, a naive approach of directly interacting with each user action with contextual features is computationally expensive and introduces significant noise from behaviors irrelevant to the candidate item. This noise tends to overwhelm the valuable signals arising from interactions involving more behaviors relevant to the candidate item. Therefore, to resolve the above issue, we propose a Core-Behaviors and Distributional-Compensation Dual-View Interaction Network (CDNet), which bridges the gap between sequential and contextual feature interactions from two complementary angles: a fine-grained interaction involving the most relevant behaviors and contextual features, and a coarse-grained interaction that models the user's overall interest distribution against the contextual features. By simultaneously capturing important behavioral details without forgoing the holistic user interest, CDNet effectively models the interplay between sequential and contextual features without imposing a significant computational burden. Ultimately, extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of CDNet.

Learning to Reflect and Correct: Towards Better Decoding Trajectories for Large-Scale Generative Recommendation

Generative Recommendation (GR) has become a promising paradigm for large-scale recommendation systems. However, existing GR models typically perform single-pass decoding without explicit refinement, causing early deviations to accumulate and ultimately degrade recommendation quality. To tackle this problem, we propose GRC, which is, to our knowledge, the first structured reflection-correction framework for GR that extends standard decoding into a Generation-Reflection-Correction (GRC) process. Concretely, GRC introduces a supervised reflection-correction template that decomposes the decoding process into initial draft generation, multi-granular reflection, and reflection-guided correction, thereby enabling structured reflection and correction in the semantic token space. To further explore the enlarged refinement space introduced by the GRC process, we optimize the entire GRC trajectory with GRPO-based reinforcement learning, under a carefully designed reward function with token-level and trajectory-level signals. For efficient online serving, we propose an Entropy-Guided Reflection Scheduling (EGRS) strategy that dynamically allocates more correction budget to high-uncertainty decoding trajectories during beam search. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets show that GRC consistently outperforms six state-of-the-art baselines by up to 15.74%, and online A/B tests demonstrate its substantial practical value in large-scale industrial recommendation, delivering a 1.79% lift in advertising revenue with only modest latency overhead.

Masked Diffusion Generative Recommendation

Generative recommendation (GR) typically first quantizes continuous item embeddings into multi-level semantic IDs (SIDs), and then generates the next item via autoregressive decoding. Although existing methods are already competitive in terms of recommendation performance, directly inheriting the autoregressive decoding paradigm from language models still suffers from three key limitations: (1) autoregressive decoding struggles to jointly capture global dependencies among the multi-dimensional features associated with different positions of SID; (2) using a unified, fixed decoding path for the same item implicitly assumes that all users attend to item attributes in the same order; (3) autoregressive decoding is inefficient at inference time and struggles to meet real-time requirements. To tackle these challenges, we propose MDGR, a Masked Diffusion Generative Recommendation framework that reshapes the GR pipeline from three perspectives: codebook, training, and inference. (1) We adopt a parallel codebook to provide a structural foundation for diffusion-based GR. (2) During training, we adaptively construct masking supervision signals along both the temporal and sample dimensions. (3) During inference, we develop a warm-up-based two-stage parallel decoding strategy for efficient generation of SIDs. Extensive experiments on multiple public and industrial-scale datasets show that MDGR outperforms ten state-of-the-art baselines by up to 10.78%. Furthermore, by deploying MDGR on a large-scale online advertising platform, we achieve a 1.20% increase in revenue, demonstrating its practical value. The code will be released upon acceptance.

Infer As You Train: A Symmetric Paradigm of Masked Generative for Click-Through Rate Prediction

Generative models are increasingly being explored in click-through rate (CTR) prediction field to overcome the limitations of the conventional discriminative paradigm, which rely on a simple binary classification objective. However, existing generative models typically confine the generative paradigm to the training phase, primarily for representation learning. During online inference, they revert to a standard discriminative paradigm, failing to leverage their powerful generative capabilities to further improve prediction accuracy. This fundamental asymmetry between the training and inference phases prevents the generative paradigm from realizing its full potential. To address this limitation, we propose the Symmetric Masked Generative Paradigm for CTR prediction (SGCTR), a novel framework that establishes symmetry between the training and inference phases. Specifically, after acquiring generative capabilities by learning feature dependencies during training, SGCTR applies the generative capabilities during online inference to iteratively redefine the features of input samples, which mitigates the impact of noisy features and enhances prediction accuracy. Extensive experiments validate the superiority of SGCTR, demonstrating that applying the generative paradigm symmetrically across both training and inference significantly unlocks its power in CTR prediction.