Uncertainty Quantification and Confidence Calibration in Large Language Models: A Survey

Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in text generation, reasoning, and decision-making, enabling their adoption in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, law, and transportation. However, their reliability is a major concern, as they often produce plausible but incorrect responses. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) enhances trustworthiness by estimating confidence in outputs, enabling risk mitigation and selective prediction. However, traditional UQ methods struggle with LLMs due to computational constraints and decoding inconsistencies. Moreover, LLMs introduce unique uncertainty sources, such as input ambiguity, reasoning path divergence, and decoding stochasticity, that extend beyond classical aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. To address this, we introduce a new taxonomy that categorizes UQ methods based on computational efficiency and uncertainty dimensions (input, reasoning, parameter, and prediction uncertainty). We evaluate existing techniques, assess their real-world applicability, and identify open challenges, emphasizing the need for scalable, interpretable, and robust UQ approaches to enhance LLM reliability.

Generative AI in Transportation Planning: A Survey

The integration of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) into transportation planning has the potential to revolutionize tasks such as demand forecasting, infrastructure design, policy evaluation, and traffic simulation. However, there is a critical need for a systematic framework to guide the adoption of GenAI in this interdisciplinary domain. In this survey, we, a multidisciplinary team of researchers spanning computer science and transportation engineering, present the first comprehensive framework for leveraging GenAI in transportation planning. Specifically, we introduce a new taxonomy that categorizes existing applications and methodologies into two perspectives: transportation planning tasks and computational techniques. From the transportation planning perspective, we examine the role of GenAI in automating descriptive, predictive, generative, simulation, and explainable tasks to enhance mobility systems. From the computational perspective, we detail advancements in data preparation, domain-specific fine-tuning, and inference strategies, such as retrieval-augmented generation and zero-shot learning tailored to transportation applications. Additionally, we address critical challenges, including data scarcity, explainability, bias mitigation, and the development of domain-specific evaluation frameworks that align with transportation goals like sustainability, equity, and system efficiency. This survey aims to bridge the gap between traditional transportation planning methodologies and modern AI techniques, fostering collaboration and innovation. By addressing these challenges and opportunities, we seek to inspire future research that ensures ethical, equitable, and impactful use of generative AI in transportation planning.

Uncertainty Quantification of Large Language Models through Multi-Dimensional Responses

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various tasks due to large training datasets and powerful transformer architecture. However, the reliability of responses from LLMs remains a question. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) of LLMs is crucial for ensuring their reliability, especially in areas such as healthcare, finance, and decision-making. Existing UQ methods primarily focus on semantic similarity, overlooking the deeper knowledge dimensions embedded in responses. We introduce a multi-dimensional UQ framework that integrates semantic and knowledge-aware similarity analysis. By generating multiple responses and leveraging auxiliary LLMs to extract implicit knowledge, we construct separate similarity matrices and apply tensor decomposition to derive a comprehensive uncertainty representation. This approach disentangles overlapping information from both semantic and knowledge dimensions, capturing both semantic variations and factual consistency, leading to more accurate UQ. Our empirical evaluations demonstrate that our method outperforms existing techniques in identifying uncertain responses, offering a more robust framework for enhancing LLM reliability in high-stakes applications.

Understanding the Uncertainty of LLM Explanations: A Perspective Based on Reasoning Topology

Understanding the uncertainty in large language model (LLM) explanations is important for evaluating their faithfulness and reasoning consistency, and thus provides insights into the reliability of LLM's output regarding a question. In this work, we propose a novel framework that quantifies uncertainty in LLM explanations through a reasoning topology perspective. By designing a structural elicitation strategy, we guide the LLMs to frame the explanations of an answer into a graph topology. This process decomposes the explanations into the knowledge related sub-questions and topology-based reasoning structures, which allows us to quantify uncertainty not only at the semantic level but also from the reasoning path. It further brings convenience to assess knowledge redundancy and provide interpretable insights into the reasoning process. Our method offers a systematic way to interpret the LLM reasoning, analyze limitations, and provide guidance for enhancing robustness and faithfulness. This work pioneers the use of graph-structured uncertainty measurement in LLM explanations and demonstrates the potential of topology-based quantification.

MCQA-Eval: Efficient Confidence Evaluation in NLG with Gold-Standard Correctness Labels

Large Language Models (LLMs) require robust confidence estimation, particularly in critical domains like healthcare and law where unreliable outputs can lead to significant consequences. Despite much recent work in confidence estimation, current evaluation frameworks rely on correctness functions -- various heuristics that are often noisy, expensive, and possibly introduce systematic biases. These methodological weaknesses tend to distort evaluation metrics and thus the comparative ranking of confidence measures. We introduce MCQA-Eval, an evaluation framework for assessing confidence measures in Natural Language Generation (NLG) that eliminates dependence on an explicit correctness function by leveraging gold-standard correctness labels from multiple-choice datasets. MCQA-Eval enables systematic comparison of both internal state-based white-box (e.g. logit-based) and consistency-based black-box confidence measures, providing a unified evaluation methodology across different approaches. Through extensive experiments on multiple LLMs and widely used QA datasets, we report that MCQA-Eval provides efficient and more reliable assessments of confidence estimation methods than existing approaches.

A Survey of Sim-to-Real Methods in RL: Progress, Prospects and Challenges with Foundation Models

Deep Reinforcement Learning (RL) has been explored and verified to be effective in solving decision-making tasks in various domains, such as robotics, transportation, recommender systems, etc. It learns from the interaction with environments and updates the policy using the collected experience. However, due to the limited real-world data and unbearable consequences of taking detrimental actions, the learning of RL policy is mainly restricted within the simulators. This practice guarantees safety in learning but introduces an inevitable sim-to-real gap in terms of deployment, thus causing degraded performance and risks in execution. There are attempts to solve the sim-to-real problems from different domains with various techniques, especially in the era with emerging techniques such as large foundations or language models that have cast light on the sim-to-real. This survey paper, to the best of our knowledge, is the first taxonomy that formally frames the sim-to-real techniques from key elements of the Markov Decision Process (State, Action, Transition, and Reward). Based on the framework, we cover comprehensive literature from the classic to the most advanced methods including the sim-to-real techniques empowered by foundation models, and we also discuss the specialties that are worth attention in different domains of sim-to-real problems. Then we summarize the formal evaluation process of sim-to-real performance with accessible code or benchmarks. The challenges and opportunities are also presented to encourage future exploration of this direction. We are actively maintaining a to include the most up-to-date sim-to-real research outcomes to help the researchers in their work.

Political-LLM: Large Language Models in Political Science

In recent years, large language models (LLMs) have been widely adopted in political science tasks such as election prediction, sentiment analysis, policy impact assessment, and misinformation detection. Meanwhile, the need to systematically understand how LLMs can further revolutionize the field also becomes urgent. In this work, we--a multidisciplinary team of researchers spanning computer science and political science--present the first principled framework termed Political-LLM to advance the comprehensive understanding of integrating LLMs into computational political science. Specifically, we first introduce a fundamental taxonomy classifying the existing explorations into two perspectives: political science and computational methodologies. In particular, from the political science perspective, we highlight the role of LLMs in automating predictive and generative tasks, simulating behavior dynamics, and improving causal inference through tools like counterfactual generation; from a computational perspective, we introduce advancements in data preparation, fine-tuning, and evaluation methods for LLMs that are tailored to political contexts. We identify key challenges and future directions, emphasizing the development of domain-specific datasets, addressing issues of bias and fairness, incorporating human expertise, and redefining evaluation criteria to align with the unique requirements of computational political science. Political-LLM seeks to serve as a guidebook for researchers to foster an informed, ethical, and impactful use of Artificial Intelligence in political science. Our online resource is available at: http://political-llm.org/.

Zer0-Jack: A Memory-efficient Gradient-based Jailbreaking Method for Black-box Multi-modal Large Language Models

Jailbreaking methods, which induce Multi-modal Large Language Models (MLLMs) to output harmful responses, raise significant safety concerns. Among these methods, gradient-based approaches, which use gradients to generate malicious prompts, have been widely studied due to their high success rates in white-box settings, where full access to the model is available. However, these methods have notable limitations: they require white-box access, which is not always feasible, and involve high memory usage. To address scenarios where white-box access is unavailable, attackers often resort to transfer attacks. In transfer attacks, malicious inputs generated using white-box models are applied to black-box models, but this typically results in reduced attack performance. To overcome these challenges, we propose Zer0-Jack, a method that bypasses the need for white-box access by leveraging zeroth-order optimization. We propose patch coordinate descent to efficiently generate malicious image inputs to directly attack black-box MLLMs, which significantly reduces memory usage further. Through extensive experiments, Zer0-Jack achieves a high attack success rate across various models, surpassing previous transfer-based methods and performing comparably with existing white-box jailbreak techniques. Notably, Zer0-Jack achieves a 95\% attack success rate on MiniGPT-4 with the Harmful Behaviors Multi-modal Dataset on a black-box setting, demonstrating its effectiveness. Additionally, we show that Zer0-Jack can directly attack commercial MLLMs such as GPT-4o. Codes are provided in the supplement.

CoMAL: Collaborative Multi-Agent Large Language Models for Mixed-Autonomy Traffic

The integration of autonomous vehicles into urban traffic has great potential to improve efficiency by reducing congestion and optimizing traffic flow systematically. In this paper, we introduce CoMAL (Collaborative Multi-Agent LLMs), a framework designed to address the mixed-autonomy traffic problem by collaboration among autonomous vehicles to optimize traffic flow. CoMAL is built upon large language models, operating in an interactive traffic simulation environment. It utilizes a Perception Module to observe surrounding agents and a Memory Module to store strategies for each agent. The overall workflow includes a Collaboration Module that encourages autonomous vehicles to discuss the effective strategy and allocate roles, a reasoning engine to determine optimal behaviors based on assigned roles, and an Execution Module that controls vehicle actions using a hybrid approach combining rule-based models. Experimental results demonstrate that CoMAL achieves superior performance on the Flow benchmark. Additionally, we evaluate the impact of different language models and compare our framework with reinforcement learning approaches. It highlights the strong cooperative capability of LLM agents and presents a promising solution to the mixed-autonomy traffic challenge. The code is available at https://github.com/Hyan-Yao/CoMAL.

GUS-Net: Social Bias Classification in Text with Generalizations, Unfairness, and Stereotypes

The detection of bias in natural language processing (NLP) is a critical challenge, particularly with the increasing use of large language models (LLMs) in various domains. This paper introduces GUS-Net, an innovative approach to bias detection that focuses on three key types of biases: (G)eneralizations, (U)nfairness, and (S)tereotypes. GUS-Net leverages generative AI and automated agents to create a comprehensive synthetic dataset, enabling robust multi-label token classification. Our methodology enhances traditional bias detection methods by incorporating the contextual encodings of pre-trained models, resulting in improved accuracy and depth in identifying biased entities. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that GUS-Net outperforms state-of-the-art techniques, achieving superior performance in terms of accuracy, F1-score, and Hamming Loss. The findings highlight GUS-Net's effectiveness in capturing a wide range of biases across diverse contexts, making it a valuable tool for social bias detection in text. This study contributes to the ongoing efforts in NLP to address implicit bias, providing a pathway for future research and applications in various fields. The Jupyter notebooks used to create the dataset and model are available at: https://github.com/Ethical-Spectacle/fair-ly/tree/main/resources. Warning: This paper contains examples of harmful language, and reader discretion is recommended.