The Sim-to-Real Gap of Foundation Model Agents: A Unified MDP Perspective

Foundation model agents are increasingly deployed for real-world decision-making, but suffer from the sim-to-real gap. While robotics and classical control have mature frameworks to address this gap, the foundation model community is treating agent robustness as an entirely novel phenomenon. Our paper proposes formalizing the foundation model agent evaluation and training gap as a classical sim-to-real problem structured entirely around the four elements of a Markov Decision Process, including Observation, Action, Transition, and Reward. In this paper, we set a comprehensive research agenda that translates classical discrepancies into the foundation model domain and advocates for adopting established solutions like domain randomization. We provide concrete examples, such as a multilingual tool calling to demonstrate how severe observation space gaps lead to operationally invalid actions despite correct semantic intent. Ultimately, this agenda aims to drive a paradigm shift, yielding a unified vocabulary and standardized stress test benchmarks to foster a new generation of highly trustworthy agents for reliable real-world applications.

Position: Uncertainty Quantification in LLMs is Just Unsupervised Clustering

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is widely regarded as the primary safeguard for deploying Large Language Models (LLMs) in high-stakes domains. However, we argue that the field suffers from a category error: mainstream UQ methods for LLMs are just unsupervised clustering algorithms. We demonstrate that most current approaches inherently quantify the internal consistency of the model's generations rather than their external correctness. Consequently, current methods are fundamentally blind to factual reality and fail to detect ``confident hallucinations,'' where models exhibit high confidence in stable but incorrect answers. Therefore, the current UQ methods may create a deceptive sense of safety when deploying the models with uncertainty. In detail, we identify three critical pathologies resulting from this dependence on internal state: a hyperparameter sensitivity crisis that renders deployment unsafe, an internal evaluation cycle that conflates stability with truth, and a fundamental lack of ground truth that forces reliance on unstable proxy metrics to evaluate uncertainty. To resolve this impasse, we advocate for a paradigm shift to UQ and outline a roadmap for the research community to adopt better evaluation metrics and settings, implement mechanism changes for native uncertainty, and anchor verification in objective truth, ensuring that model confidence serves as a reliable proxy for reality.

Diagnosing Multi-step Reasoning Failures in Black-box LLMs via Stepwise Confidence Attribution

Large Language Models have achieved strong performance on reasoning tasks with objective answers by generating step-by-step solutions, but diagnosing where a multi-step reasoning trace might fail remains difficult. Confidence estimation offers a diagnostic signal, yet existing methods are restricted to final answers or require internal model access. In this paper, we introduce Stepwise Confidence Attribution (SCA), a framework for closed-source LLMs that assigns step-level confidence based only on generated reasoning traces. SCA applies the Information Bottleneck principle: steps aligning with consensus structures across correct solutions receive high confidence, while deviations are flagged as potentially erroneous. We propose two complementary methods: (1) NIBS, a non-parametric IB approach measuring consistency without graph structures, and (2) GIBS, a graph-based IB model that learns subgraphs through a differentiable mask to capture logical variability. Extensive experiments on mathematical reasoning and multi-hop question answering show that SCA reliably identifies low-confidence steps strongly correlated with reasoning errors. Moreover, using step-level confidence to guide self-correction improves the correction success rate by up to 13.5\% over answer-level feedback.

LangMARL: Natural Language Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Large language model (LLM) agents struggle to autonomously evolve coordination strategies in dynamic environments, largely because coarse global outcomes obscure the causal signals needed for local policy refinement. We identify this bottleneck as a multi-agent credit assignment problem, which has long been studied in classical multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) but remains underaddressed in LLM-based systems. Building on this observation, we propose LangMARL, a framework that brings credit assignment and policy gradient evolution from cooperative MARL into the language space. LangMARL introduces agent-level language credit assignment, pioneers gradient evolution in language space for policy improvement, and summarizes task-relevant causal relations from replayed trajectories to provide dense feedback and improve convergence under sparse rewards. Extensive experiments across diverse cooperative multi-agent tasks demonstrate improved sample efficiency, interpretability, and strong generalization.

SELAUR: Self Evolving LLM Agent via Uncertainty-aware Rewards

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as multi-step decision-making agents, where effective reward design is essential for guiding learning. Although recent work explores various forms of reward shaping and step-level credit assignment, a key signal remains largely overlooked: the intrinsic uncertainty of LLMs. Uncertainty reflects model confidence, reveals where exploration is needed, and offers valuable learning cues even in failed trajectories. We introduce SELAUR: Self Evolving LLM Agent via Uncertainty-aware Rewards, a reinforcement learning framework that incorporates uncertainty directly into the reward design. SELAUR integrates entropy-, least-confidence-, and margin-based metrics into a combined token-level uncertainty estimate, providing dense confidence-aligned supervision, and employs a failure-aware reward reshaping mechanism that injects these uncertainty signals into step- and trajectory-level rewards to improve exploration efficiency and learning stability. Experiments on two benchmarks, ALFWorld and WebShop, show that our method consistently improves success rates over strong baselines. Ablation studies further demonstrate how uncertainty signals enhance exploration and robustness.

Conformal Feedback Alignment: Quantifying Answer-Level Reliability for Robust LLM Alignment

Preference-based alignment like Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) learns from pairwise preferences, yet the labels are often noisy and inconsistent. Existing uncertainty-aware approaches weight preferences, but ignore a more fundamental factor: the reliability of the \emph{answers} being compared. To address the problem, we propose Conformal Feedback Alignment (CFA), a framework that grounds preference weighting in the statistical guarantees of Conformal Prediction (CP). CFA quantifies answer-level reliability by constructing conformal prediction sets with controllable coverage and aggregates these reliabilities into principled weights for both DPO- and PPO-style training. Experiments across different datasets show that CFA improves alignment robustness and data efficiency, highlighting that modeling \emph{answer-side} uncertainty complements preference-level weighting and yields more robust, data-efficient alignment. Codes are provided here.

VARMA-Enhanced Transformer for Time Series Forecasting

Transformer-based models have significantly advanced time series forecasting. Recent work, like the Cross-Attention-only Time Series transformer (CATS), shows that removing self-attention can make the model more accurate and efficient. However, these streamlined architectures may overlook the fine-grained, local temporal dependencies effectively captured by classical statistical models like Vector AutoRegressive Moving Average model (VARMA). To address this gap, we propose VARMAformer, a novel architecture that synergizes the efficiency of a cross-attention-only framework with the principles of classical time series analysis. Our model introduces two key innovations: (1) a dedicated VARMA-inspired Feature Extractor (VFE) that explicitly models autoregressive (AR) and moving-average (MA) patterns at the patch level, and (2) a VARMA-Enhanced Attention (VE-atten) mechanism that employs a temporal gate to make queries more context-aware. By fusing these classical insights into a modern backbone, VARMAformer captures both global, long-range dependencies and local, statistical structures. Through extensive experiments on widely-used benchmark datasets, we demonstrate that our model consistently outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods. Our work validates the significant benefit of integrating classical statistical insights into modern deep learning frameworks for time series forecasting.

SalientFusion: Context-Aware Compositional Zero-Shot Food Recognition

Food recognition has gained significant attention, but the rapid emergence of new dishes requires methods for recognizing unseen food categories, motivating Zero-Shot Food Learning (ZSFL). We propose the task of Compositional Zero-Shot Food Recognition (CZSFR), where cuisines and ingredients naturally align with attributes and objects in Compositional Zero-Shot learning (CZSL). However, CZSFR faces three challenges: (1) Redundant background information distracts models from learning meaningful food features, (2) Role confusion between staple and side dishes leads to misclassification, and (3) Semantic bias in a single attribute can lead to confusion of understanding. Therefore, we propose SalientFusion, a context-aware CZSFR method with two components: SalientFormer, which removes background redundancy and uses depth features to resolve role confusion; DebiasAT, which reduces the semantic bias by aligning prompts with visual features. Using our proposed benchmarks, CZSFood-90 and CZSFood-164, we show that SalientFusion achieves state-of-the-art results on these benchmarks and the most popular general datasets for the general CZSL. The code is avaliable at https://github.com/Jiajun-RUC/SalientFusion.

Uncertainty Quantification and Confidence Calibration in Large Language Models: A Survey

Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in text generation, reasoning, and decision-making, enabling their adoption in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, law, and transportation. However, their reliability is a major concern, as they often produce plausible but incorrect responses. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) enhances trustworthiness by estimating confidence in outputs, enabling risk mitigation and selective prediction. However, traditional UQ methods struggle with LLMs due to computational constraints and decoding inconsistencies. Moreover, LLMs introduce unique uncertainty sources, such as input ambiguity, reasoning path divergence, and decoding stochasticity, that extend beyond classical aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. To address this, we introduce a new taxonomy that categorizes UQ methods based on computational efficiency and uncertainty dimensions (input, reasoning, parameter, and prediction uncertainty). We evaluate existing techniques, assess their real-world applicability, and identify open challenges, emphasizing the need for scalable, interpretable, and robust UQ approaches to enhance LLM reliability.

Large-Scale AI in Telecom: Charting the Roadmap for Innovation, Scalability, and Enhanced Digital Experiences

This white paper discusses the role of large-scale AI in the telecommunications industry, with a specific focus on the potential of generative AI to revolutionize network functions and user experiences, especially in the context of 6G systems. It highlights the development and deployment of Large Telecom Models (LTMs), which are tailored AI models designed to address the complex challenges faced by modern telecom networks. The paper covers a wide range of topics, from the architecture and deployment strategies of LTMs to their applications in network management, resource allocation, and optimization. It also explores the regulatory, ethical, and standardization considerations for LTMs, offering insights into their future integration into telecom infrastructure. The goal is to provide a comprehensive roadmap for the adoption of LTMs to enhance scalability, performance, and user-centric innovation in telecom networks.