Are LLM Uncertainty and Correctness Encoded by the Same Features? A Functional Dissociation via Sparse Autoencoders

Large language models can be uncertain yet correct, or confident yet wrong, raising the question of whether their output-level uncertainty and their actual correctness are driven by the same internal mechanisms or by distinct feature populations. We introduce a 2x2 framework that partitions model predictions along correctness and confidence axes, and uses sparse autoencoders to identify features associated with each dimension independently. Applying this to Llama-3.1-8B and Gemma-2-9B, we identify three feature populations that play fundamentally different functional roles. Pure uncertainty features are functionally essential: suppressing them severely degrades accuracy. Pure incorrectness features are functionally inert: despite showing statistically significant activation differences between correct and incorrect predictions, the majority produce near-zero change in accuracy when suppressed. Confounded features that encode both signals are detrimental to output quality, and targeted suppression of them yields a 1.1% accuracy improvement and a 75% entropy reduction, with effects transferring across the ARC-Challenge and RACE benchmarks. The feature categories are also informationally distinct: the activations of just 3 confounded features from a single mid-network layer predict model correctness (AUROC ~0.79), enabling selective abstention that raises accuracy from 62% to 81% at 53% coverage. The results demonstrate that uncertainty and correctness are distinct internal phenomena, with implications for interpretability and targeted inference-time intervention.

Every Response Counts: Quantifying Uncertainty of LLM-based Multi-Agent Systems through Tensor Decomposition

While Large Language Model-based Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) consistently outperform single-agent systems on complex tasks, their intricate interactions introduce critical reliability challenges arising from communication dynamics and role dependencies. Existing Uncertainty Quantification methods, typically designed for single-turn outputs, fail to address the unique complexities of the MAS. Specifically, these methods struggle with three distinct challenges: the cascading uncertainty in multi-step reasoning, the variability of inter-agent communication paths, and the diversity of communication topologies. To bridge this gap, we introduce MATU, a novel framework that quantifies uncertainty through tensor decomposition. MATU moves beyond analyzing final text outputs by representing entire reasoning trajectories as embedding matrices and organizing multiple execution runs into a higher-order tensor. By applying tensor decomposition, we disentangle and quantify distinct sources of uncertainty, offering a comprehensive reliability measure that is generalizable across different agent structures. We provide comprehensive experiments to show that MATU effectively estimates holistic and robust uncertainty across diverse tasks and communication topologies.

Conformal Feedback Alignment: Quantifying Answer-Level Reliability for Robust LLM Alignment

Preference-based alignment like Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) learns from pairwise preferences, yet the labels are often noisy and inconsistent. Existing uncertainty-aware approaches weight preferences, but ignore a more fundamental factor: the reliability of the \emph{answers} being compared. To address the problem, we propose Conformal Feedback Alignment (CFA), a framework that grounds preference weighting in the statistical guarantees of Conformal Prediction (CP). CFA quantifies answer-level reliability by constructing conformal prediction sets with controllable coverage and aggregates these reliabilities into principled weights for both DPO- and PPO-style training. Experiments across different datasets show that CFA improves alignment robustness and data efficiency, highlighting that modeling \emph{answer-side} uncertainty complements preference-level weighting and yields more robust, data-efficient alignment. Codes are provided here.

Uncertainty Quantification and Confidence Calibration in Large Language Models: A Survey

Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in text generation, reasoning, and decision-making, enabling their adoption in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, law, and transportation. However, their reliability is a major concern, as they often produce plausible but incorrect responses. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) enhances trustworthiness by estimating confidence in outputs, enabling risk mitigation and selective prediction. However, traditional UQ methods struggle with LLMs due to computational constraints and decoding inconsistencies. Moreover, LLMs introduce unique uncertainty sources, such as input ambiguity, reasoning path divergence, and decoding stochasticity, that extend beyond classical aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. To address this, we introduce a new taxonomy that categorizes UQ methods based on computational efficiency and uncertainty dimensions (input, reasoning, parameter, and prediction uncertainty). We evaluate existing techniques, assess their real-world applicability, and identify open challenges, emphasizing the need for scalable, interpretable, and robust UQ approaches to enhance LLM reliability.

Generative AI in Transportation Planning: A Survey

The integration of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) into transportation planning has the potential to revolutionize tasks such as demand forecasting, infrastructure design, policy evaluation, and traffic simulation. However, there is a critical need for a systematic framework to guide the adoption of GenAI in this interdisciplinary domain. In this survey, we, a multidisciplinary team of researchers spanning computer science and transportation engineering, present the first comprehensive framework for leveraging GenAI in transportation planning. Specifically, we introduce a new taxonomy that categorizes existing applications and methodologies into two perspectives: transportation planning tasks and computational techniques. From the transportation planning perspective, we examine the role of GenAI in automating descriptive, predictive, generative, simulation, and explainable tasks to enhance mobility systems. From the computational perspective, we detail advancements in data preparation, domain-specific fine-tuning, and inference strategies, such as retrieval-augmented generation and zero-shot learning tailored to transportation applications. Additionally, we address critical challenges, including data scarcity, explainability, bias mitigation, and the development of domain-specific evaluation frameworks that align with transportation goals like sustainability, equity, and system efficiency. This survey aims to bridge the gap between traditional transportation planning methodologies and modern AI techniques, fostering collaboration and innovation. By addressing these challenges and opportunities, we seek to inspire future research that ensures ethical, equitable, and impactful use of generative AI in transportation planning.

Uncertainty Quantification of Large Language Models through Multi-Dimensional Responses

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various tasks due to large training datasets and powerful transformer architecture. However, the reliability of responses from LLMs remains a question. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) of LLMs is crucial for ensuring their reliability, especially in areas such as healthcare, finance, and decision-making. Existing UQ methods primarily focus on semantic similarity, overlooking the deeper knowledge dimensions embedded in responses. We introduce a multi-dimensional UQ framework that integrates semantic and knowledge-aware similarity analysis. By generating multiple responses and leveraging auxiliary LLMs to extract implicit knowledge, we construct separate similarity matrices and apply tensor decomposition to derive a comprehensive uncertainty representation. This approach disentangles overlapping information from both semantic and knowledge dimensions, capturing both semantic variations and factual consistency, leading to more accurate UQ. Our empirical evaluations demonstrate that our method outperforms existing techniques in identifying uncertain responses, offering a more robust framework for enhancing LLM reliability in high-stakes applications.

Zer0-Jack: A Memory-efficient Gradient-based Jailbreaking Method for Black-box Multi-modal Large Language Models

Jailbreaking methods, which induce Multi-modal Large Language Models (MLLMs) to output harmful responses, raise significant safety concerns. Among these methods, gradient-based approaches, which use gradients to generate malicious prompts, have been widely studied due to their high success rates in white-box settings, where full access to the model is available. However, these methods have notable limitations: they require white-box access, which is not always feasible, and involve high memory usage. To address scenarios where white-box access is unavailable, attackers often resort to transfer attacks. In transfer attacks, malicious inputs generated using white-box models are applied to black-box models, but this typically results in reduced attack performance. To overcome these challenges, we propose Zer0-Jack, a method that bypasses the need for white-box access by leveraging zeroth-order optimization. We propose patch coordinate descent to efficiently generate malicious image inputs to directly attack black-box MLLMs, which significantly reduces memory usage further. Through extensive experiments, Zer0-Jack achieves a high attack success rate across various models, surpassing previous transfer-based methods and performing comparably with existing white-box jailbreak techniques. Notably, Zer0-Jack achieves a 95\% attack success rate on MiniGPT-4 with the Harmful Behaviors Multi-modal Dataset on a black-box setting, demonstrating its effectiveness. Additionally, we show that Zer0-Jack can directly attack commercial MLLMs such as GPT-4o. Codes are provided in the supplement.

SynTraC: A Synthetic Dataset for Traffic Signal Control from Traffic Monitoring Cameras

This paper introduces SynTraC, the first public image-based traffic signal control dataset, aimed at bridging the gap between simulated environments and real-world traffic management challenges. Unlike traditional datasets for traffic signal control which aim to provide simplified feature vectors like vehicle counts from traffic simulators, SynTraC provides real-style images from the CARLA simulator with annotated features, along with traffic signal states. This image-based dataset comes with diverse real-world scenarios, including varying weather and times of day. Additionally, SynTraC also provides different reward values for advanced traffic signal control algorithms like reinforcement learning. Experiments with SynTraC demonstrate that it is still an open challenge to image-based traffic signal control methods compared with feature-based control methods, indicating our dataset can further guide the development of future algorithms. The code for this paper can be found in \url{https://github.com/DaRL-LibSignal/SynTraC}.SynTraC

LLM Uncertainty Quantification through Directional Entailment Graph and Claim Level Response Augmentation

The Large language models (LLMs) have showcased superior capabilities in sophisticated tasks across various domains, stemming from basic question-answer (QA), they are nowadays used as decision assistants or explainers for unfamiliar content. However, they are not always correct due to the data sparsity in specific domain corpus, or the model's hallucination problems. Given this, how much should we trust the responses from LLMs? This paper presents a novel way to evaluate the uncertainty that captures the directional instability, by constructing a directional graph from entailment probabilities, and we innovatively conduct Random Walk Laplacian given the asymmetric property of a constructed directed graph, then the uncertainty is aggregated by the derived eigenvalues from the Laplacian process. We also provide a way to incorporate the existing work's semantics uncertainty with our proposed layer. Besides, this paper identifies the vagueness issues in the raw response set and proposes an augmentation approach to mitigate such a problem, we conducted extensive empirical experiments and demonstrated the superiority of our proposed solutions.

Are Classification Robustness and Explanation Robustness Really Strongly Correlated? An Analysis Through Input Loss Landscape

This paper delves into the critical area of deep learning robustness, challenging the conventional belief that classification robustness and explanation robustness in image classification systems are inherently correlated. Through a novel evaluation approach leveraging clustering for efficient assessment of explanation robustness, we demonstrate that enhancing explanation robustness does not necessarily flatten the input loss landscape with respect to explanation loss - contrary to flattened loss landscapes indicating better classification robustness. To deeply investigate this contradiction, a groundbreaking training method designed to adjust the loss landscape with respect to explanation loss is proposed. Through the new training method, we uncover that although such adjustments can impact the robustness of explanations, they do not have an influence on the robustness of classification. These findings not only challenge the prevailing assumption of a strong correlation between the two forms of robustness but also pave new pathways for understanding relationship between loss landscape and explanation loss.