Evaluating Interventional Reasoning Capabilities of Large Language Models

Numerous decision-making tasks require estimating causal effects under interventions on different parts of a system. As practitioners consider using large language models (LLMs) to automate decisions, studying their causal reasoning capabilities becomes crucial. A recent line of work evaluates LLMs ability to retrieve commonsense causal facts, but these evaluations do not sufficiently assess how LLMs reason about interventions. Motivated by the role that interventions play in causal inference, in this paper, we conduct empirical analyses to evaluate whether LLMs can accurately update their knowledge of a data-generating process in response to an intervention. We create benchmarks that span diverse causal graphs (e.g., confounding, mediation) and variable types, and enable a study of intervention-based reasoning. These benchmarks allow us to isolate the ability of LLMs to accurately predict changes resulting from their ability to memorize facts or find other shortcuts. Our analysis on four LLMs highlights that while GPT- 4 models show promising accuracy at predicting the intervention effects, they remain sensitive to distracting factors in the prompts.

Additive Decoders for Latent Variables Identification and Cartesian-Product Extrapolation

We tackle the problems of latent variables identification and "out-of-support" image generation in representation learning. We show that both are possible for a class of decoders that we call additive, which are reminiscent of decoders used for object-centric representation learning (OCRL) and well suited for images that can be decomposed as a sum of object-specific images. We provide conditions under which exactly solving the reconstruction problem using an additive decoder is guaranteed to identify the blocks of latent variables up to permutation and block-wise invertible transformations. This guarantee relies only on very weak assumptions about the distribution of the latent factors, which might present statistical dependencies and have an almost arbitrarily shaped support. Our result provides a new setting where nonlinear independent component analysis (ICA) is possible and adds to our theoretical understanding of OCRL methods. We also show theoretically that additive decoders can generate novel images by recombining observed factors of variations in novel ways, an ability we refer to as Cartesian-product extrapolation. We show empirically that additivity is crucial for both identifiability and extrapolation on simulated data.

Synergies Between Disentanglement and Sparsity: a Multi-Task Learning Perspective

Although disentangled representations are often said to be beneficial for downstream tasks, current empirical and theoretical understanding is limited. In this work, we provide evidence that disentangled representations coupled with sparse base-predictors improve generalization. In the context of multi-task learning, we prove a new identifiability result that provides conditions under which maximally sparse base-predictors yield disentangled representations. Motivated by this theoretical result, we propose a practical approach to learn disentangled representations based on a sparsity-promoting bi-level optimization problem. Finally, we explore a meta-learning version of this algorithm based on group Lasso multiclass SVM base-predictors, for which we derive a tractable dual formulation. It obtains competitive results on standard few-shot classification benchmarks, while each task is using only a fraction of the learned representations.

Empirical Analysis of Model Selection for Heterogenous Causal Effect Estimation

We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for the case of conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation under binary treatments. Unlike model selection in machine learning, we cannot use the technique of cross-validation here as we do not observe the counterfactual potential outcome for any data point. Hence, we need to design model selection techniques that do not explicitly rely on counterfactual data. As an alternative to cross-validation, there have been a variety of proxy metrics proposed in the literature, that depend on auxiliary nuisance models also estimated from the data (propensity score model, outcome regression model). However, the effectiveness of these metrics has only been studied on synthetic datasets as we can observe the counterfactual data for them. We conduct an extensive empirical analysis to judge the performance of these metrics, where we utilize the latest advances in generative modeling to incorporate multiple realistic datasets. We evaluate 9 metrics on 144 datasets for selecting between 415 estimators per dataset, including datasets that closely mimic real-world datasets. Further, we use the latest techniques from AutoML to ensure consistent hyperparameter selection for nuisance models for a fair comparison across metrics.

Interventional Causal Representation Learning

The theory of identifiable representation learning aims to build general-purpose methods that extract high-level latent (causal) factors from low-level sensory data. Most existing works focus on identifiable representation learning with observational data, relying on distributional assumptions on latent (causal) factors. However, in practice, we often also have access to interventional data for representation learning. How can we leverage interventional data to help identify high-level latents? To this end, we explore the role of interventional data for identifiable representation learning in this work. We study the identifiability of latent causal factors with and without interventional data, under minimal distributional assumptions on the latents. We prove that, if the true latent variables map to the observed high-dimensional data via a polynomial function, then representation learning via minimizing the standard reconstruction loss of autoencoders identifies the true latents up to affine transformation. If we further have access to interventional data generated by hard $do$ interventions on some of the latents, then we can identify these intervened latents up to permutation, shift and scaling.

Towards efficient representation identification in supervised learning

Humans have a remarkable ability to disentangle complex sensory inputs (e.g., image, text) into simple factors of variation (e.g., shape, color) without much supervision. This ability has inspired many works that attempt to solve the following question: how do we invert the data generation process to extract those factors with minimal or no supervision? Several works in the literature on non-linear independent component analysis have established this negative result; without some knowledge of the data generation process or appropriate inductive biases, it is impossible to perform this inversion. In recent years, a lot of progress has been made on disentanglement under structural assumptions, e.g., when we have access to auxiliary information that makes the factors of variation conditionally independent. However, existing work requires a lot of auxiliary information, e.g., in supervised classification, it prescribes that the number of label classes should be at least equal to the total dimension of all factors of variation. In this work, we depart from these assumptions and ask: a) How can we get disentanglement when the auxiliary information does not provide conditional independence over the factors of variation? b) Can we reduce the amount of auxiliary information required for disentanglement? For a class of models where auxiliary information does not ensure conditional independence, we show theoretically and experimentally that disentanglement (to a large extent) is possible even when the auxiliary information dimension is much less than the dimension of the true latent representation.

The Connection between Out-of-Distribution Generalization and Privacy of ML Models

With the goal of generalizing to out-of-distribution (OOD) data, recent domain generalization methods aim to learn "stable" feature representations whose effect on the output remains invariant across domains. Given the theoretical connection between generalization and privacy, we ask whether better OOD generalization leads to better privacy for machine learning models, where privacy is measured through robustness to membership inference (MI) attacks. In general, we find that the relationship does not hold. Through extensive evaluation on a synthetic dataset and image datasets like MNIST, Fashion-MNIST, and Chest X-rays, we show that a lower OOD generalization gap does not imply better robustness to MI attacks. Instead, privacy benefits are based on the extent to which a model captures the stable features. A model that captures stable features is more robust to MI attacks than models that exhibit better OOD generalization but do not learn stable features. Further, for the same provable differential privacy guarantees, a model that learns stable features provides higher utility as compared to others. Our results offer the first extensive empirical study connecting stable features and privacy, and also have a takeaway for the domain generalization community; MI attack can be used as a complementary metric to measure model quality.

Split-Treatment Analysis to Rank Heterogeneous Causal Effects for Prospective Interventions

For many kinds of interventions, such as a new advertisement, marketing intervention, or feature recommendation, it is important to target a specific subset of people for maximizing its benefits at minimum cost or potential harm. However, a key challenge is that no data is available about the effect of such a prospective intervention since it has not been deployed yet. In this work, we propose a split-treatment analysis that ranks the individuals most likely to be positively affected by a prospective intervention using past observational data. Unlike standard causal inference methods, the split-treatment method does not need any observations of the target treatments themselves. Instead it relies on observations of a proxy treatment that is caused by the target treatment. Under reasonable assumptions, we show that the ranking of heterogeneous causal effect based on the proxy treatment is the same as the ranking based on the target treatment's effect. In the absence of any interventional data for cross-validation, Split-Treatment uses sensitivity analyses for unobserved confounding to select model parameters. We apply Split-Treatment to both a simulated data and a large-scale, real-world targeting task and validate our discovered rankings via a randomized experiment for the latter.

Towards Unifying Feature Attribution and Counterfactual Explanations: Different Means to the Same End

To explain a machine learning model, there are two main approaches: feature attributions that assign an importance score to each input feature, and counterfactual explanations that provide input examples with minimal changes to alter the model's prediction. We provide two key results towards unifying these approaches in terms of their interpretation and use. First, we present a method to generate feature attribution explanations from a set of counterfactual examples. These feature attributions convey how important a feature is to changing the classification outcome of a model, especially on whether a subset of features is necessary and/or sufficient for that change, which feature attribution methods are unable to provide. Second, we show how counterfactual examples can be used to evaluate the goodness of an attribution-based explanation in terms of its necessity and sufficiency. As a result, we highlight the complementarity of these two approaches and provide an interpretation based on a causal inference framework. Our evaluation on three benchmark datasets -- Adult Income, LendingClub, and GermanCredit -- confirm the complementarity. Feature attribution methods like LIME and SHAP and counterfactual explanation methods like DiCE often do not agree on feature importance rankings. In addition, by restricting the features that can be modified for generating counterfactual examples, we find that the top-k features from LIME or SHAP are neither necessary nor sufficient explanations of a model's prediction. Finally, we present a case study of different explanation methods on a real-world hospital triage problem.

Domain Generalization using Causal Matching

Learning invariant representations has been proposed as a key technique for addressing the domain generalization problem. However, the question of identifying the right conditions for invariance remains unanswered. In this work, we propose a causal interpretation of domain generalization that defines domains as interventions under a data-generating process. Based on a general causal model for data from multiple domains, we show that prior methods for learning an invariant representation optimize for an incorrect objective. We highlight an alternative condition: inputs across domains should have the same representation if they are derived from the same base object. In practice, knowledge about generation of data or objects is not available. Hence we propose an iterative algorithm called MatchDG that approximates base object similarity by using a contrastive loss formulation adapted for multiple domains. We then match inputs that are similar under the resultant representation to build an invariant classifier. We evaluate MatchDG on rotated MNIST, Fashion-MNIST, and PACS datasets and find that it outperforms prior work on out-of-domain accuracy and learns matches that have over 25\% overlap with ground-truth object matches in MNIST and Fashion-MNIST. Code repository can be accessed here: \textit{https://github.com/microsoft/robustdg}