Prospective Learning: Back to the Future

Research on both natural intelligence (NI) and artificial intelligence (AI) generally assumes that the future resembles the past: intelligent agents or systems (what we call 'intelligence') observe and act on the world, then use this experience to act on future experiences of the same kind. We call this 'retrospective learning'. For example, an intelligence may see a set of pictures of objects, along with their names, and learn to name them. A retrospective learning intelligence would merely be able to name more pictures of the same objects. We argue that this is not what true intelligence is about. In many real world problems, both NIs and AIs will have to learn for an uncertain future. Both must update their internal models to be useful for future tasks, such as naming fundamentally new objects and using these objects effectively in a new context or to achieve previously unencountered goals. This ability to learn for the future we call 'prospective learning'. We articulate four relevant factors that jointly define prospective learning. Continual learning enables intelligences to remember those aspects of the past which it believes will be most useful in the future. Prospective constraints (including biases and priors) facilitate the intelligence finding general solutions that will be applicable to future problems. Curiosity motivates taking actions that inform future decision making, including in previously unmet situations. Causal estimation enables learning the structure of relations that guide choosing actions for specific outcomes, even when the specific action-outcome contingencies have never been observed before. We argue that a paradigm shift from retrospective to prospective learning will enable the communities that study intelligence to unite and overcome existing bottlenecks to more effectively explain, augment, and engineer intelligences.

Conservative and Adaptive Penalty for Model-Based Safe Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement Learning (RL) agents in the real world must satisfy safety constraints in addition to maximizing a reward objective. Model-based RL algorithms hold promise for reducing unsafe real-world actions: they may synthesize policies that obey all constraints using simulated samples from a learned model. However, imperfect models can result in real-world constraint violations even for actions that are predicted to satisfy all constraints. We propose Conservative and Adaptive Penalty (CAP), a model-based safe RL framework that accounts for potential modeling errors by capturing model uncertainty and adaptively exploiting it to balance the reward and the cost objectives. First, CAP inflates predicted costs using an uncertainty-based penalty. Theoretically, we show that policies that satisfy this conservative cost constraint are guaranteed to also be feasible in the true environment. We further show that this guarantees the safety of all intermediate solutions during RL training. Further, CAP adaptively tunes this penalty during training using true cost feedback from the environment. We evaluate this conservative and adaptive penalty-based approach for model-based safe RL extensively on state and image-based environments. Our results demonstrate substantial gains in sample-efficiency while incurring fewer violations than prior safe RL algorithms. Code is available at: https://github.com/Redrew/CAP

Probabilistic Modeling for Human Mesh Recovery

This paper focuses on the problem of 3D human reconstruction from 2D evidence. Although this is an inherently ambiguous problem, the majority of recent works avoid the uncertainty modeling and typically regress a single estimate for a given input. In contrast to that, in this work, we propose to embrace the reconstruction ambiguity and we recast the problem as learning a mapping from the input to a distribution of plausible 3D poses. Our approach is based on the normalizing flows model and offers a series of advantages. For conventional applications, where a single 3D estimate is required, our formulation allows for efficient mode computation. Using the mode leads to performance that is comparable with the state of the art among deterministic unimodal regression models. Simultaneously, since we have access to the likelihood of each sample, we demonstrate that our model is useful in a series of downstream tasks, where we leverage the probabilistic nature of the prediction as a tool for more accurate estimation. These tasks include reconstruction from multiple uncalibrated views, as well as human model fitting, where our model acts as a powerful image-based prior for mesh recovery. Our results validate the importance of probabilistic modeling, and indicate state-of-the-art performance across a variety of settings. Code and models are available at: https://www.seas.upenn.edu/~nkolot/projects/prohmr.

Know Thyself: Transferable Visuomotor Control Through Robot-Awareness

Training visuomotor robot controllers from scratch on a new robot typically requires generating large amounts of robot-specific data. Could we leverage data previously collected on another robot to reduce or even completely remove this need for robot-specific data? We propose a "robot-aware" solution paradigm that exploits readily available robot "self-knowledge" such as proprioception, kinematics, and camera calibration to achieve this. First, we learn modular dynamics models that pair a transferable, robot-agnostic world dynamics module with a robot-specific, analytical robot dynamics module. Next, we set up visual planning costs that draw a distinction between the robot self and the world. Our experiments on tabletop manipulation tasks in simulation and on real robots demonstrate that these plug-in improvements dramatically boost the transferability of visuomotor controllers, even permitting zero-shot transfer onto new robots for the very first time. Project website: https://hueds.github.io/rac/

Conservative Offline Distributional Reinforcement Learning

Many reinforcement learning (RL) problems in practice are offline, learning purely from observational data. A key challenge is how to ensure the learned policy is safe, which requires quantifying the risk associated with different actions. In the online setting, distributional RL algorithms do so by learning the distribution over returns (i.e., cumulative rewards) instead of the expected return; beyond quantifying risk, they have also been shown to learn better representations for planning. We propose Conservative Offline Distributional Actor Critic (CODAC), an offline RL algorithm suitable for both risk-neutral and risk-averse domains. CODAC adapts distributional RL to the offline setting by penalizing the predicted quantiles of the return for out-of-distribution actions. We prove that CODAC learns a conservative return distribution -- in particular, for finite MDPs, CODAC converges to an uniform lower bound on the quantiles of the return distribution; our proof relies on a novel analysis of the distributional Bellman operator. In our experiments, on two challenging robot navigation tasks, CODAC successfully learns risk-averse policies using offline data collected purely from risk-neutral agents. Furthermore, CODAC is state-of-the-art on the D4RL MuJoCo benchmark in terms of both expected and risk-sensitive performance.

Keyframe-Focused Visual Imitation Learning

Imitation learning trains control policies by mimicking pre-recorded expert demonstrations. In partially observable settings, imitation policies must rely on observation histories, but many seemingly paradoxical results show better performance for policies that only access the most recent observation. Recent solutions ranging from causal graph learning to deep information bottlenecks have shown promising results, but failed to scale to realistic settings such as visual imitation. We propose a solution that outperforms these prior approaches by upweighting demonstration keyframes corresponding to expert action changepoints. This simple approach easily scales to complex visual imitation settings. Our experimental results demonstrate consistent performance improvements over all baselines on image-based Gym MuJoCo continuous control tasks. Finally, on the CARLA photorealistic vision-based urban driving simulator, we resolve a long-standing issue in behavioral cloning for driving by demonstrating effective imitation from observation histories. Supplementary materials and code at: \url{https://tinyurl.com/imitation-keyframes}.

How Are Learned Perception-Based Controllers Impacted by the Limits of Robust Control?

The difficulty of optimal control problems has classically been characterized in terms of system properties such as minimum eigenvalues of controllability/observability gramians. We revisit these characterizations in the context of the increasing popularity of data-driven techniques like reinforcement learning (RL), and in control settings where input observations are high-dimensional images and transition dynamics are unknown. Specifically, we ask: to what extent are quantifiable control and perceptual difficulty metrics of a task predictive of the performance and sample complexity of data-driven controllers? We modulate two different types of partial observability in a cartpole "stick-balancing" problem -- (i) the height of one visible fixation point on the cartpole, which can be used to tune fundamental limits of performance achievable by any controller, and by (ii) the level of perception noise in the fixation point position inferred from depth or RGB images of the cartpole. In these settings, we empirically study two popular families of controllers: RL and system identification-based $H_\infty$ control, using visually estimated system state. Our results show that the fundamental limits of robust control have corresponding implications for the sample-efficiency and performance of learned perception-based controllers. Visit our project website https://jxu.ai/rl-vs-control-web for more information.

Diverse Sampling for Normalizing Flow Based Trajectory Forecasting

For autonomous cars to drive safely and effectively, they must anticipate the stochastic future trajectories of other agents in the scene, such as pedestrians and other cars. Forecasting such complex multi-modal distributions requires powerful probabilistic approaches. Normalizing flows have recently emerged as an attractive tool to model such distributions. However, when generating trajectory predictions from a flow model, a key drawback is that independent samples often do not adequately capture all the modes in the underlying distribution. We propose Diversity Sampling for Flow (DSF), a method for improving the quality and the diversity of trajectory samples from a pre-trained flow model. Rather than producing individual samples, DSF produces a set of trajectories in one shot. Given a pre-trained forecasting flow model, we train DSF using gradients from the model, to optimize an objective function that rewards high likelihood for individual trajectories in the predicted set, together with high spatial separation between trajectories. DSF is easy to implement, and we show that it offers a simple plug-in improvement for several existing flow-based forecasting models, achieving state-of-art results on two challenging vehicle and pedestrian forecasting benchmarks.

Fighting Copycat Agents in Behavioral Cloning from Observation Histories

Imitation learning trains policies to map from input observations to the actions that an expert would choose. In this setting, distribution shift frequently exacerbates the effect of misattributing expert actions to nuisance correlates among the observed variables. We observe that a common instance of this causal confusion occurs in partially observed settings when expert actions are strongly correlated over time: the imitator learns to cheat by predicting the expert's previous action, rather than the next action. To combat this "copycat problem", we propose an adversarial approach to learn a feature representation that removes excess information about the previous expert action nuisance correlate, while retaining the information necessary to predict the next action. In our experiments, our approach improves performance significantly across a variety of partially observed imitation learning tasks.