Learning to target with network interference

This paper studies adaptive targeting under network interference in a bandit setting, where treatments applied to one individual may affect others through spillover effects. We consider a linear model in a sparse regime, where each individual's outcome can be affected by at most a few others. We first establish a regret lower bound showing that ignoring the network structure and reducing the problem to a standard linear bandit inevitably leads to inefficient learning, particularly in large populations. To understand how structural information can be leveraged, we analyze regimes with varying levels of knowledge of the interference structure: (1) full support knowledge, (2) knowledge of the column support sizes, and (3) no prior knowledge. For each regime, we establish regret lower bounds characterizing the fundamental limits of learning, and develop algorithms that achieve near-optimal regret. Together, our results provide a unified view of how knowledge of the interference structure governs the efficiency of online learning under interference, and offer practical adaptive targeting algorithms in each setting. Numerical experiments on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the practical benefits of our algorithms.

PopPy: Opportunistically Exploiting Parallelism in Python Compound AI Applications

Compound AI applications, which compose calls to ML models using a general-purpose programming language like Python, are widely used for a variety of user-facing tasks, from software engineering to enterprise automation, making their end-to-end latency a critical bottleneck. In contrast to traditional applications, execution time is dominated by the external components, which cannot be handled by traditional language optimization systems, like optimizing compilers. To address this problem, we develop PopPy, a system that can uncover parallelization opportunities in Python applications that invoke these heavy external components, including those used in compound AI applications. PopPy supports a very expressive fragment of Python and requires minimal developer input to uncover parallelism. It combines an ahead-of-time compiler with a runtime, addressing three key challenges in extracting parallelism from Python applications: language complexity, dynamic dispatch, and variable mutation. On a set of real-world compound AI applications, PopPy achieves up to $6.4\times$ speedups in end-to-end execution time compared to standard Python execution while preserving the sequential program semantics.

Decaf: Improving Neural Decompilation with Automatic Feedback and Search

Decompilers are useful tools used in reverse engineering to understand compiled source code. Reconstructing source code from compiled binaries is a challenging task, because high-level syntax, identifiers, and custom data types are generally lost as the compiler translates human-readable code to low-level machine code. Deterministic decompilers are useful tools for binary analysis, but can struggle to infer idiomatic syntax and identifier names. Generative AI models are a natural fit for reconstructing high-level syntax, identifiers, and types, but they can still suffer by hallucinating improper programming constructs and semantics. Instead of attempting to improve neural decompilers with more data and more training, we argue that compiler feedback can be used to dramatically improve the semantic correctness of neural decompiler outputs via search. Our system, Decaf (DECompilation with Automated Feedback), raises the neural decompilation rate from 26.0% on ExeBench to 83.9% on the Real -O2 split without sacrificing similarity to the original source code. We also find our automatic feedback methodology is highly effective for improving weaker neural decompilation models.

Policy-Guided Stepwise Model Routing for Cost-Effective Reasoning

Inference-time computation has greatly enhanced the performance of large language models (LLMs) on challenging reasoning tasks, but this strategy can incur high inference costs. One solution is to route intermediate chain-of-thought (CoT) states to language models of different sizes; however, existing approaches rely on handcrafted routing strategies that limit performance, or on training large process reward models that may be infeasible in many applications. We formulate stepwise model routing as a constrained decision-making problem, which we solve by training a small control policy using reinforcement learning in conjunction with threshold calibration to tune the performance-efficiency tradeoff. We validate our method on three math benchmarks (GSM8K, MATH500, and OmniMath) on both open and closed models. Our method consistently improves the accuracy-cost tradeoff compared to handcrafted approaches, while achieving a comparable tradeoff to methods that require training large process reward models.

Tether: Autonomous Functional Play with Correspondence-Driven Trajectory Warping

The ability to conduct and learn from interaction and experience is a central challenge in robotics, offering a scalable alternative to labor-intensive human demonstrations. However, realizing such "play" requires (1) a policy robust to diverse, potentially out-of-distribution environment states, and (2) a procedure that continuously produces useful robot experience. To address these challenges, we introduce Tether, a method for autonomous functional play involving structured, task-directed interactions. First, we design a novel open-loop policy that warps actions from a small set of source demonstrations (<=10) by anchoring them to semantic keypoint correspondences in the target scene. We show that this design is extremely data-efficient and robust even under significant spatial and semantic variations. Second, we deploy this policy for autonomous functional play in the real world via a continuous cycle of task selection, execution, evaluation, and improvement, guided by the visual understanding capabilities of vision-language models. This procedure generates diverse, high-quality datasets with minimal human intervention. In a household-like multi-object setup, our method is the first to perform many hours of autonomous multi-task play in the real world starting from only a handful of demonstrations. This produces a stream of data that consistently improves the performance of closed-loop imitation policies over time, ultimately yielding over 1000 expert-level trajectories and training policies competitive with those learned from human-collected demonstrations.

Adversarial Query Synthesis via Bayesian Optimization

Benchmark workloads are extremely important to the database management research community, especially as more machine learning components are integrated into database systems. Here, we propose a Bayesian optimization technique to automatically search for difficult benchmark queries, significantly reducing the amount of manual effort usually required. In preliminary experiments, we show that our approach can generate queries with more than double the optimization headroom compared to existing benchmarks.

Prior-Agnostic Incentive-Compatible Exploration

In bandit settings, optimizing long-term regret metrics requires exploration, which corresponds to sometimes taking myopically sub-optimal actions. When a long-lived principal merely recommends actions to be executed by a sequence of different agents (as in an online recommendation platform) this provides an incentive misalignment: exploration is "worth it" for the principal but not for the agents. Prior work studies regret minimization under the constraint of Bayesian Incentive-Compatibility in a static stochastic setting with a fixed and common prior shared amongst the agents and the algorithm designer. We show that (weighted) swap regret bounds on their own suffice to cause agents to faithfully follow forecasts in an approximate Bayes Nash equilibrium, even in dynamic environments in which agents have conflicting prior beliefs and the mechanism designer has no knowledge of any agents beliefs. To obtain these bounds, it is necessary to assume that the agents have some degree of uncertainty not just about the rewards, but about their arrival time -- i.e. their relative position in the sequence of agents served by the algorithm. We instantiate our abstract bounds with concrete algorithms for guaranteeing adaptive and weighted regret in bandit settings.

Winner's Curse Drives False Promises in Data-Driven Decisions: A Case Study in Refugee Matching

A major challenge in data-driven decision-making is accurate policy evaluation-i.e., guaranteeing that a learned decision-making policy achieves the promised benefits. A popular strategy is model-based policy evaluation, which estimates a model from data to infer counterfactual outcomes. This strategy is known to produce unwarrantedly optimistic estimates of the true benefit due to the winner's curse. We searched the recent literature on data-driven decision-making, identifying a sample of 55 papers published in the Management Science in the past decade; all but two relied on this flawed methodology. Several common justifications are provided: (1) the estimated models are accurate, stable, and well-calibrated, (2) the historical data uses random treatment assignment, (3) the model family is well-specified, and (4) the evaluation methodology uses sample splitting. Unfortunately, we show that no combination of these justifications avoids the winner's curse. First, we provide a theoretical analysis demonstrating that the winner's curse can cause large, spurious reported benefits even when all these justifications hold. Second, we perform a simulation study based on the recent and consequential data-driven refugee matching problem. We construct a synthetic refugee matching environment (calibrated to closely match the real setting) but designed so that no assignment policy can improve expected employment compared to random assignment. Model-based methods report large, stable gains of around 60% even when the true effect is zero; these gains are on par with improvements of 22-75% reported in the literature. Our results provide strong evidence against model-based evaluation.

Are AI Capabilities Increasing Exponentially? A Competing Hypothesis

Rapidly increasing AI capabilities have substantial real-world consequences, ranging from AI safety concerns to labor market consequences. The Model Evaluation & Threat Research (METR) report argues that AI capabilities have exhibited exponential growth since 2019. In this note, we argue that the data does not support exponential growth, even in shorter-term horizons. Whereas the METR study claims that fitting sigmoid/logistic curves results in inflection points far in the future, we fit a sigmoid curve to their current data and find that the inflection point has already passed. In addition, we propose a more complex model that decomposes AI capabilities into base and reasoning capabilities, exhibiting individual rates of improvement. We prove that this model supports our hypothesis that AI capabilities will exhibit an inflection point in the near future. Our goal is not to establish a rigorous forecast of our own, but to highlight the fragility of existing forecasts of exponential growth.

Purely Agentic Black-Box Optimization for Biological Design

Many key challenges in biological design-such as small-molecule drug discovery, antimicrobial peptide development, and protein engineering-can be framed as black-box optimization over vast, complex structured spaces. Existing methods rely mainly on raw structural data and struggle to exploit the rich scientific literature. While large language models (LLMs) have been added to these pipelines, they have been confined to narrow roles within structure-centered optimizers. We instead cast biological black-box optimization as a fully agentic, language-based reasoning process. We introduce Purely Agentic BLack-box Optimization (PABLO), a hierarchical agentic system that uses scientific LLMs pretrained on chemistry and biology literature to generate and iteratively refine biological candidates. On both the standard GuacaMol molecular design and antimicrobial peptide optimization tasks, PABLO achieves state-of-the-art performance, substantially improving sample efficiency and final objective values over established baselines. Compared to prior optimization methods that incorporate LLMs, PABLO achieves competitive token usage per run despite relying on LLMs throughout the optimization loop. Beyond raw performance, the agentic formulation offers key advantages for realistic design: it naturally incorporates semantic task descriptions, retrieval-augmented domain knowledge, and complex constraints. In follow-up in vitro validation, PABLO-optimized peptides showed strong activity against drug-resistant pathogens, underscoring the practical potential of PABLO for therapeutic discovery.