Tether: Autonomous Functional Play with Correspondence-Driven Trajectory Warping

The ability to conduct and learn from interaction and experience is a central challenge in robotics, offering a scalable alternative to labor-intensive human demonstrations. However, realizing such "play" requires (1) a policy robust to diverse, potentially out-of-distribution environment states, and (2) a procedure that continuously produces useful robot experience. To address these challenges, we introduce Tether, a method for autonomous functional play involving structured, task-directed interactions. First, we design a novel open-loop policy that warps actions from a small set of source demonstrations (<=10) by anchoring them to semantic keypoint correspondences in the target scene. We show that this design is extremely data-efficient and robust even under significant spatial and semantic variations. Second, we deploy this policy for autonomous functional play in the real world via a continuous cycle of task selection, execution, evaluation, and improvement, guided by the visual understanding capabilities of vision-language models. This procedure generates diverse, high-quality datasets with minimal human intervention. In a household-like multi-object setup, our method is the first to perform many hours of autonomous multi-task play in the real world starting from only a handful of demonstrations. This produces a stream of data that consistently improves the performance of closed-loop imitation policies over time, ultimately yielding over 1000 expert-level trajectories and training policies competitive with those learned from human-collected demonstrations.

Adversarial Query Synthesis via Bayesian Optimization

Benchmark workloads are extremely important to the database management research community, especially as more machine learning components are integrated into database systems. Here, we propose a Bayesian optimization technique to automatically search for difficult benchmark queries, significantly reducing the amount of manual effort usually required. In preliminary experiments, we show that our approach can generate queries with more than double the optimization headroom compared to existing benchmarks.

Prior-Agnostic Incentive-Compatible Exploration

In bandit settings, optimizing long-term regret metrics requires exploration, which corresponds to sometimes taking myopically sub-optimal actions. When a long-lived principal merely recommends actions to be executed by a sequence of different agents (as in an online recommendation platform) this provides an incentive misalignment: exploration is "worth it" for the principal but not for the agents. Prior work studies regret minimization under the constraint of Bayesian Incentive-Compatibility in a static stochastic setting with a fixed and common prior shared amongst the agents and the algorithm designer. We show that (weighted) swap regret bounds on their own suffice to cause agents to faithfully follow forecasts in an approximate Bayes Nash equilibrium, even in dynamic environments in which agents have conflicting prior beliefs and the mechanism designer has no knowledge of any agents beliefs. To obtain these bounds, it is necessary to assume that the agents have some degree of uncertainty not just about the rewards, but about their arrival time -- i.e. their relative position in the sequence of agents served by the algorithm. We instantiate our abstract bounds with concrete algorithms for guaranteeing adaptive and weighted regret in bandit settings.

Winner's Curse Drives False Promises in Data-Driven Decisions: A Case Study in Refugee Matching

A major challenge in data-driven decision-making is accurate policy evaluation-i.e., guaranteeing that a learned decision-making policy achieves the promised benefits. A popular strategy is model-based policy evaluation, which estimates a model from data to infer counterfactual outcomes. This strategy is known to produce unwarrantedly optimistic estimates of the true benefit due to the winner's curse. We searched the recent literature on data-driven decision-making, identifying a sample of 55 papers published in the Management Science in the past decade; all but two relied on this flawed methodology. Several common justifications are provided: (1) the estimated models are accurate, stable, and well-calibrated, (2) the historical data uses random treatment assignment, (3) the model family is well-specified, and (4) the evaluation methodology uses sample splitting. Unfortunately, we show that no combination of these justifications avoids the winner's curse. First, we provide a theoretical analysis demonstrating that the winner's curse can cause large, spurious reported benefits even when all these justifications hold. Second, we perform a simulation study based on the recent and consequential data-driven refugee matching problem. We construct a synthetic refugee matching environment (calibrated to closely match the real setting) but designed so that no assignment policy can improve expected employment compared to random assignment. Model-based methods report large, stable gains of around 60% even when the true effect is zero; these gains are on par with improvements of 22-75% reported in the literature. Our results provide strong evidence against model-based evaluation.

Are AI Capabilities Increasing Exponentially? A Competing Hypothesis

Rapidly increasing AI capabilities have substantial real-world consequences, ranging from AI safety concerns to labor market consequences. The Model Evaluation & Threat Research (METR) report argues that AI capabilities have exhibited exponential growth since 2019. In this note, we argue that the data does not support exponential growth, even in shorter-term horizons. Whereas the METR study claims that fitting sigmoid/logistic curves results in inflection points far in the future, we fit a sigmoid curve to their current data and find that the inflection point has already passed. In addition, we propose a more complex model that decomposes AI capabilities into base and reasoning capabilities, exhibiting individual rates of improvement. We prove that this model supports our hypothesis that AI capabilities will exhibit an inflection point in the near future. Our goal is not to establish a rigorous forecast of our own, but to highlight the fragility of existing forecasts of exponential growth.

Purely Agentic Black-Box Optimization for Biological Design

Many key challenges in biological design-such as small-molecule drug discovery, antimicrobial peptide development, and protein engineering-can be framed as black-box optimization over vast, complex structured spaces. Existing methods rely mainly on raw structural data and struggle to exploit the rich scientific literature. While large language models (LLMs) have been added to these pipelines, they have been confined to narrow roles within structure-centered optimizers. We instead cast biological black-box optimization as a fully agentic, language-based reasoning process. We introduce Purely Agentic BLack-box Optimization (PABLO), a hierarchical agentic system that uses scientific LLMs pretrained on chemistry and biology literature to generate and iteratively refine biological candidates. On both the standard GuacaMol molecular design and antimicrobial peptide optimization tasks, PABLO achieves state-of-the-art performance, substantially improving sample efficiency and final objective values over established baselines. Compared to prior optimization methods that incorporate LLMs, PABLO achieves competitive token usage per run despite relying on LLMs throughout the optimization loop. Beyond raw performance, the agentic formulation offers key advantages for realistic design: it naturally incorporates semantic task descriptions, retrieval-augmented domain knowledge, and complex constraints. In follow-up in vitro validation, PABLO-optimized peptides showed strong activity against drug-resistant pathogens, underscoring the practical potential of PABLO for therapeutic discovery.

Conformal Constrained Policy Optimization for Cost-Effective LLM Agents

While large language models (LLMs) have recently made tremendous progress towards solving challenging AI problems, they have done so at increasingly steep computational and API costs. We propose a novel strategy where we combine multiple LLM models with varying cost/accuracy tradeoffs in an agentic manner, where models and tools are run in sequence as determined by an orchestration model to minimize cost subject to a user-specified level of reliability; this constraint is formalized using conformal prediction to provide guarantees. To solve this problem, we propose Conformal Constrained Policy Optimization (CCPO), a training paradigm that integrates constrained policy optimization with off-policy reinforcement learning and recent advances in online conformal prediction. CCPO jointly optimizes a cost-aware policy (score function) and an adaptive threshold. Across two multi-hop question answering benchmarks, CCPO achieves up to a 30% cost reduction compared to other cost-aware baselines and LLM-guided methods without compromising reliability. Our approach provides a principled and practical framework for deploying LLM agents that are significantly more cost-effective while maintaining reliability.

A Fast, Reliable, and Secure Programming Language for LLM Agents with Code Actions

Modern large language models (LLMs) are often deployed as agents, calling external tools adaptively to solve tasks. Rather than directly calling tools, it can be more effective for LLMs to write code to perform the tool calls, enabling them to automatically generate complex control flow such as conditionals and loops. Such code actions are typically provided as Python code, since LLMs are quite proficient at it; however, Python may not be the ideal language due to limited built-in support for performance, security, and reliability. We propose a novel programming language for code actions, called Quasar, which has several benefits: (1) automated parallelization to improve performance, (2) uncertainty quantification to improve reliability and mitigate hallucinations, and (3) security features enabling the user to validate actions. LLMs can write code in a subset of Python, which is automatically transpiled to Quasar. We evaluate our approach on the ViperGPT visual question answering agent, applied to the GQA dataset, demonstrating that LLMs with Quasar actions instead of Python actions retain strong performance, while reducing execution time when possible by 42%, improving security by reducing user approval interactions when possible by 52%, and improving reliability by applying conformal prediction to achieve a desired target coverage level.

Alignment of large language models with constrained learning

We study the problem of computing an optimal large language model (LLM) policy for a constrained alignment problem, where the goal is to maximize a primary reward objective while satisfying constraints on secondary utilities. Despite the popularity of Lagrangian-based LLM policy search in constrained alignment, iterative primal-dual methods often fail to converge, and non-iterative dual-based methods do not achieve optimality in the LLM parameter space. To address these challenges, we employ Lagrangian duality to develop an iterative dual-based alignment method that alternates between updating the LLM policy via Lagrangian maximization and updating the dual variable via dual descent. In theory, we characterize the primal-dual gap between the primal value in the distribution space and the dual value in the LLM parameter space. We further quantify the optimality gap of the learned LLM policies at near-optimal dual variables with respect to both the objective and the constraint functions. These results prove that dual-based alignment methods can find an optimal constrained LLM policy, up to an LLM parametrization gap. We demonstrate the effectiveness and merits of our approach through extensive experiments conducted on the PKU-SafeRLHF dataset.

Effective Reinforcement Learning for Reasoning in Language Models

Reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a promising strategy for improving the reasoning capabilities of language models (LMs) in domains such as mathematics and coding. However, most modern RL algorithms were designed to target robotics applications, which differ significantly from LM reasoning. We analyze RL algorithm design decisions for LM reasoning, for both accuracy and computational efficiency, focusing on relatively small models due to computational constraints. Our findings are: (i) on-policy RL significantly outperforms supervised fine-tuning (SFT), (ii) PPO-based off-policy updates increase accuracy instead of reduce variance, and (iii) removing KL divergence can lead to more concise generations and higher accuracy. Furthermore, we find that a key bottleneck to computational efficiency is that the optimal batch sizes for inference and backpropagation are different. We propose a novel algorithm, DASH, that performs preemptive sampling (i.e., sample a large batch and accumulate gradient updates in small increments), and gradient filtering (i.e., drop samples with small advantage estimates). We show that DASH reduces training time by 83% compared to a standard implementation of GRPO without sacrificing accuracy. Our findings provide valuable insights on designing effective RL algorithms for LM reasoning.