From Perceptions to Decisions: Wildfire Evacuation Decision Prediction with Behavioral Theory-informed LLMs

Evacuation decision prediction is critical for efficient and effective wildfire response by helping emergency management anticipate traffic congestion and bottlenecks, allocate resources, and minimize negative impacts. Traditional statistical methods for evacuation decision prediction fail to capture the complex and diverse behavioral logic of different individuals. In this work, for the first time, we introduce FLARE, short for facilitating LLM for advanced reasoning on wildfire evacuation decision prediction, a Large Language Model (LLM)-based framework that integrates behavioral theories and models to streamline the Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning and subsequently integrate with memory-based Reinforcement Learning (RL) module to provide accurate evacuation decision prediction and understanding. Our proposed method addresses the limitations of using existing LLMs for evacuation behavioral predictions, such as limited survey data, mismatching with behavioral theory, conflicting individual preferences, implicit and complex mental states, and intractable mental state-behavior mapping. Experiments on three post-wildfire survey datasets show an average of 20.47% performance improvement over traditional theory-informed behavioral models, with strong cross-event generalizability. Our complete code is publicly available at https://github.com/SusuXu-s-Lab/FLARE

Humanity's Last Exam

Benchmarks are important tools for tracking the rapid advancements in large language model (LLM) capabilities. However, benchmarks are not keeping pace in difficulty: LLMs now achieve over 90\% accuracy on popular benchmarks like MMLU, limiting informed measurement of state-of-the-art LLM capabilities. In response, we introduce Humanity's Last Exam (HLE), a multi-modal benchmark at the frontier of human knowledge, designed to be the final closed-ended academic benchmark of its kind with broad subject coverage. HLE consists of 3,000 questions across dozens of subjects, including mathematics, humanities, and the natural sciences. HLE is developed globally by subject-matter experts and consists of multiple-choice and short-answer questions suitable for automated grading. Each question has a known solution that is unambiguous and easily verifiable, but cannot be quickly answered via internet retrieval. State-of-the-art LLMs demonstrate low accuracy and calibration on HLE, highlighting a significant gap between current LLM capabilities and the expert human frontier on closed-ended academic questions. To inform research and policymaking upon a clear understanding of model capabilities, we publicly release HLE at https://lastexam.ai.

MLAN: Language-Based Instruction Tuning Improves Zero-Shot Generalization of Multimodal Large Language Models

We present a novel instruction tuning recipe to improve the zero-shot task generalization of multimodal large language models. In contrast to existing instruction tuning mechanisms that heavily rely on visual instructions, our approach focuses on language-based instruction tuning, offering a distinct and more training efficient path for multimodal instruction tuning. We evaluate the performance of the proposed approach on 9 unseen datasets across both language and vision modalities. Our results show that our language-only instruction tuning is able to significantly improve the performance of two pretrained multimodal models based on Llama 2 and Vicuna on those unseen datasets. Interestingly, the language instruction following ability also helps unlock the models to follow vision instructions without explicit training. Compared to the state of the art multimodal instruction tuning approaches that are mainly based on visual instructions, our language-based method not only achieves superior performance but also significantly enhances training efficiency. For instance, the language-only instruction tuning produces competitive average performance across the evaluated datasets (with even better performance on language datasets) with significant training efficiency improvements (on average 4x), thanks to the striking reduction in the need for vision data. With a small number of visual instructions, this emerging language instruction following ability transfers well to the unseen vision datasets, outperforming the state of the art with greater training efficiency.

Rethinking the "Heatmap + Monte Carlo Tree Search" Paradigm for Solving Large Scale TSP

The Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP) remains a fundamental challenge in combinatorial optimization, inspiring diverse algorithmic strategies. This paper revisits the "heatmap + Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)" paradigm that has recently gained traction for learning-based TSP solutions. Within this framework, heatmaps encode the likelihood of edges forming part of the optimal tour, and MCTS refines this probabilistic guidance to discover optimal solutions. Contemporary approaches have predominantly emphasized the refinement of heatmap generation through sophisticated learning models, inadvertently sidelining the critical role of MCTS. Our extensive empirical analysis reveals two pivotal insights: 1) The configuration of MCTS strategies profoundly influences the solution quality, demanding meticulous tuning to leverage their full potential; 2) Our findings demonstrate that a rudimentary and parameter-free heatmap, derived from the intrinsic $k$-nearest nature of TSP, can rival or even surpass the performance of complicated heatmaps, with strong generalizability across various scales. Empirical evaluations across various TSP scales underscore the efficacy of our approach, achieving competitive results. These observations challenge the prevailing focus on heatmap sophistication, advocating a reevaluation of the paradigm to harness both components synergistically. Our code is available at: https://github.com/LOGO-CUHKSZ/rethink_mcts_tsp.

JudgeBench: A Benchmark for Evaluating LLM-based Judges

LLM-based judges have emerged as a scalable alternative to human evaluation and are increasingly used to assess, compare, and improve models. However, the reliability of LLM-based judges themselves is rarely scrutinized. As LLMs become more advanced, their responses grow more sophisticated, requiring stronger judges to evaluate them. Existing benchmarks primarily focus on a judge's alignment with human preferences, but often fail to account for more challenging tasks where crowdsourced human preference is a poor indicator of factual and logical correctness. To address this, we propose a novel evaluation framework to objectively evaluate LLM-based judges. Based on this framework, we propose JudgeBench, a benchmark for evaluating LLM-based judges on challenging response pairs spanning knowledge, reasoning, math, and coding. JudgeBench leverages a novel pipeline for converting existing difficult datasets into challenging response pairs with preference labels reflecting objective correctness. Our comprehensive evaluation on a collection of prompted judges, fine-tuned judges, multi-agent judges, and reward models shows that JudgeBench poses a significantly greater challenge than previous benchmarks, with many strong models (e.g., GPT-4o) performing just slightly better than random guessing. Overall, JudgeBench offers a reliable platform for assessing increasingly advanced LLM-based judges. Data and code are available at https://github.com/ScalerLab/JudgeBench .

An Efficient and Explainable Transformer-Based Few-Shot Learning for Modeling Electricity Consumption Profiles Across Thousands of Domains

Electricity Consumption Profiles (ECPs) are crucial for operating and planning power distribution systems, especially with the increasing numbers of various low-carbon technologies such as solar panels and electric vehicles. Traditional ECP modeling methods typically assume the availability of sufficient ECP data. However, in practice, the accessibility of ECP data is limited due to privacy issues or the absence of metering devices. Few-shot learning (FSL) has emerged as a promising solution for ECP modeling in data-scarce scenarios. Nevertheless, standard FSL methods, such as those used for images, are unsuitable for ECP modeling because (1) these methods usually assume several source domains with sufficient data and several target domains. However, in the context of ECP modeling, there may be thousands of source domains with a moderate amount of data and thousands of target domains. (2) Standard FSL methods usually involve cumbersome knowledge transfer mechanisms, such as pre-training and fine-tuning, whereas ECP modeling requires more lightweight methods. (3) Deep learning models often lack explainability, hindering their application in industry. This paper proposes a novel FSL method that exploits Transformers and Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) for ECP modeling to address the above-described issues. Results show that our method can accurately restore the complex ECP distribution with a minimal amount of ECP data (e.g., only 1.6\% of the complete domain dataset) while it outperforms state-of-the-art time series modeling methods, maintaining the advantages of being both lightweight and interpretable. The project is open-sourced at https://github.com/xiaweijie1996/TransformerEM-GMM.git.

Re-Tuning: Overcoming the Compositionality Limits of Large Language Models with Recursive Tuning

We present a new method for large language models to solve compositional tasks. Although they have shown strong performance on traditional language understanding tasks, large language models struggle to solve compositional tasks, where the solution depends on solving smaller instances of the same problem. We propose a natural approach to solve compositional tasks recursively. Our method, Re-Tuning, tunes models to break down a problem into subproblems, solve those subproblems, and combine the results. We show that our method significantly improves model performance on three representative compositional tasks: integer addition, dynamic programming, and parity. Compared to state-of-the-art methods that keep intermediate steps towards solving the problems, Re-Tuning achieves significantly higher accuracy and is more GPU memory efficient.

RuleR: Improving LLM Controllability by Rule-based Data Recycling

Large language models (LLMs) still lack delicate controllability over their responses, which is critical to enhancing their performance and the user experience. However, curating supervised fine-tuning (SFT) datasets to improve LLM controllability usually relies on human experts or proprietary LLMs, which requires additional costs. To bridge this gap, we propose Rule-based Data Recycling (RuleR), a data augmentation method incorporating multiple constraints into the original data samples according to predefined rules, which creates new training tasks to consolidate the controllability of LLMs. Instead of creating new data from scratch, RuleR ``recycles'' existing data by simply applying rule-based edits to their responses and appending the rule-instructions in their original instructions. Experimental results demonstrate RuleR's effectiveness in improving LLM controllability while maintaining general instruction-following capabilities. The code will be released on https://github.com/MingLiiii/RuleR.

Mosaic IT: Enhancing Instruction Tuning with Data Mosaics

Finetuning large language models with a variety of instruction-response pairs has enhanced their capability to understand and follow instructions. Current instruction tuning primarily relies on teacher models or human intervention to generate and refine the instructions and responses, which are costly, non-sustainable, and may lack diversity. In this paper, we introduce Mosaic Instruction Tuning (Mosaic-IT), a human/model-free method that can efficiently create rich and diverse augmentations from existing instruction tuning data to enhance the finetuned LLM.Mosaic-IT randomly concatenates multiple instruction data into one and trains the model to produce the corresponding responses with predefined higher-level meta-instructions to strengthen its multi-step instruction-following and format-following skills. Our extensive evaluations demonstrate a superior performance and training efficiency of Mosaic-IT, which achieves consistent performance improvements over various benchmarks and an 80% reduction in training costs compared with original instruction tuning. Our codes and data are available at https://github.com/tianyi-lab/Mosaic-IT.

A Flow-Based Model for Conditional and Probabilistic Electricity Consumption Profile Generation and Prediction

Residential Load Profile (RLP) generation and prediction are critical for the operation and planning of distribution networks, particularly as diverse low-carbon technologies are increasingly integrated. This paper introduces a novel flow-based generative model, termed Full Convolutional Profile Flow (FCPFlow), which is uniquely designed for both conditional and unconditional RLP generation, and for probabilistic load forecasting. By introducing two new layers--the invertible linear layer and the invertible normalization layer--the proposed FCPFlow architecture shows three main advantages compared to traditional statistical and contemporary deep generative models: 1) it is well-suited for RLP generation under continuous conditions, such as varying weather and annual electricity consumption, 2) it shows superior scalability in different datasets compared to traditional statistical models, and 3) it also demonstrates better modeling capabilities in capturing the complex correlation of RLPs compared with deep generative models.