An Ensemble Learning Framework for Vehicle Trajectory Prediction in Interactive Scenarios

Precisely modeling interactions and accurately predicting trajectories of surrounding vehicles are essential to the decision-making and path-planning of intelligent vehicles. This paper proposes a novel framework based on ensemble learning to improve the performance of trajectory predictions in interactive scenarios. The framework is termed Interactive Ensemble Trajectory Predictor (IETP). IETP assembles interaction-aware trajectory predictors as base learners to build an ensemble learner. Firstly, each base learner in IETP observes historical trajectories of vehicles in the scene. Then each base learner handles interactions between vehicles to predict trajectories. Finally, an ensemble learner is built to predict trajectories by applying two ensemble strategies on the predictions from all base learners. Predictions generated by the ensemble learner are final outputs of IETP. In this study, three experiments using different data are conducted based on the NGSIM dataset. Experimental results show that IETP improves the predicting accuracy and decreases the variance of errors compared to base learners. In addition, IETP exceeds baseline models with 50% of the training data, indicating that IETP is data-efficient. Moreover, the implementation of IETP is publicly available at https://github.com/BIT-Jack/IETP.

Automatic Sparse Connectivity Learning for Neural Networks

Since sparse neural networks usually contain many zero weights, these unnecessary network connections can potentially be eliminated without degrading network performance. Therefore, well-designed sparse neural networks have the potential to significantly reduce FLOPs and computational resources. In this work, we propose a new automatic pruning method - Sparse Connectivity Learning (SCL). Specifically, a weight is re-parameterized as an element-wise multiplication of a trainable weight variable and a binary mask. Thus, network connectivity is fully described by the binary mask, which is modulated by a unit step function. We theoretically prove the fundamental principle of using a straight-through estimator (STE) for network pruning. This principle is that the proxy gradients of STE should be positive, ensuring that mask variables converge at their minima. After finding Leaky ReLU, Softplus, and Identity STEs can satisfy this principle, we propose to adopt Identity STE in SCL for discrete mask relaxation. We find that mask gradients of different features are very unbalanced, hence, we propose to normalize mask gradients of each feature to optimize mask variable training. In order to automatically train sparse masks, we include the total number of network connections as a regularization term in our objective function. As SCL does not require pruning criteria or hyper-parameters defined by designers for network layers, the network is explored in a larger hypothesis space to achieve optimized sparse connectivity for the best performance. SCL overcomes the limitations of existing automatic pruning methods. Experimental results demonstrate that SCL can automatically learn and select important network connections for various baseline network structures. Deep learning models trained by SCL outperform the SOTA human-designed and automatic pruning methods in sparsity, accuracy, and FLOPs reduction.

Driver-Specific Risk Recognition in Interactive Driving Scenarios using Graph Representation

This paper presents a driver-specific risk recognition framework for autonomous vehicles that can extract inter-vehicle interactions. This extraction is carried out for urban driving scenarios in a driver-cognitive manner to improve the recognition accuracy of risky scenes. First, clustering analysis is applied to the operation data of drivers for learning the subjective assessment of risky scenes of different drivers and generating the corresponding risk label for each scene. Second, the graph representation model (GRM) is adopted to unify and construct the features of dynamic vehicles, inter-vehicle interactions and static traffic markings in real driving scenes into graphs. The driver-specific risk label provides ground truth to capture the risk evaluation criteria of different drivers. In addition, the graph model represents multiple features of the driving scenes. Therefore, the proposed framework can learn the risk-evaluating pattern of driving scenes of different drivers and establish driver-specific risk identifiers. Last, the performance of the proposed framework is evaluated via experiments conducted using real-world urban driving datasets collected by multiple drivers. The results show that the risks and their levels in real driving environments can be accurately recognized by the proposed framework.

Prediction of Pedestrian Spatiotemporal Risk Levels for Intelligent Vehicles: A Data-driven Approach

In recent years, road safety has attracted significant attention from researchers and practitioners in the intelligent transport systems domain. As one of the most common and vulnerable groups of road users, pedestrians cause great concerns due to their unpredictable behavior and movement, as subtle misunderstandings in vehicle-pedestrian interaction can easily lead to risky situations or collisions. Existing methods use either predefined collision-based models or human-labeling approaches to estimate the pedestrians' risks. These approaches are usually limited by their poor generalization ability and lack of consideration of interactions between the ego vehicle and a pedestrian. This work tackles the listed problems by proposing a Pedestrian Risk Level Prediction system. The system consists of three modules. Firstly, vehicle-perspective pedestrian data are collected. Since the data contains information regarding the movement of both the ego vehicle and pedestrian, it can simplify the prediction of spatiotemporal features in an interaction-aware fashion. Using the long short-term memory model, the pedestrian trajectory prediction module predicts their spatiotemporal features in the subsequent five frames. As the predicted trajectory follows certain interaction and risk patterns, a hybrid clustering and classification method is adopted to explore the risk patterns in the spatiotemporal features and train a risk level classifier using the learned patterns. Upon predicting the spatiotemporal features of pedestrians and identifying the corresponding risk level, the risk patterns between the ego vehicle and pedestrians are determined. Experimental results verified the capability of the PRLP system to predict the risk level of pedestrians, thus supporting the collision risk assessment of intelligent vehicles and providing safety warnings to both vehicles and pedestrians.

Life-Long Multi-Task Learning of Adaptive Path Tracking Policy for Autonomous Vehicle

This paper proposes a life-long adaptive path tracking policy learning method for autonomous vehicles that can self-evolve and self-adapt with multi-task knowledge. Firstly, the proposed method can learn a model-free control policy for path tracking directly from the historical driving experience, where the property of vehicle dynamics and corresponding control strategy can be learned simultaneously. Secondly, by utilizing the life-long learning method, the proposed method can learn the policy with task-incremental knowledge without encountering catastrophic forgetting. Thus, with continual multi-task knowledge learned, the policy can iteratively adapt to new tasks and improve its performance with knowledge from new tasks. Thirdly, a memory evaluation and updating method is applied to optimize memory structure for life-long learning which enables the policy to learn toward selected directions. Experiments are conducted using a high-fidelity vehicle dynamic model in a complex curvy road to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. Results show that the proposed method can effectively evolve with continual multi-task knowledge and adapt to the new environment, where the performance of the proposed method can also surpass two commonly used baseline methods after evolving.

Physics-informed Neural Network for Nonlinear Dynamics in Fiber Optics

A physics-informed neural network (PINN) that combines deep learning with physics is studied to solve the nonlinear Schr\"odinger equation for learning nonlinear dynamics in fiber optics. We carry out a systematic investigation and comprehensive verification on PINN for multiple physical effects in optical fibers, including dispersion, self-phase modulation, and higher-order nonlinear effects. Moreover, both special case (soliton propagation) and general case (multi-pulse propagation) are investigated and realized with PINN. In the previous studies, the PINN was mainly effective for single scenario. To overcome this problem, the physical parameters (pulse peak power and amplitudes of sub-pulses) are hereby embedded as additional input parameter controllers, which allow PINN to learn the physical constraints of different scenarios and perform good generalizability. Furthermore, PINN exhibits better performance than the data-driven neural network using much less data, and its computational complexity (in terms of number of multiplications) is much lower than that of the split-step Fourier method. The results report here show that the PINN is not only an effective partial differential equation solver, but also a prospective technique to advance the scientific computing and automatic modeling in fiber optics.

Data-Driven Short-Term Voltage Stability Assessment Based on Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network

Post-fault dynamics of short-term voltage stability (SVS) present spatial-temporal characteristics, but the existing data-driven methods for online SVS assessment fail to incorporate such characteristics into their models effectively. Confronted with this dilemma, this paper develops a novel spatial-temporal graph convolutional network (STGCN) to address this problem. The proposed STGCN utilizes graph convolution to integrate network topology information into the learning model to exploit spatial information. Then, it adopts one-dimensional convolution to exploit temporal information. In this way, it models the spatial-temporal characteristics of SVS with complete convolutional structures. After that, a node layer and a system layer are strategically designed in the STGCN for SVS assessment. The proposed STGCN incorporates the characteristics of SVS into the data-driven classification model. It can result in higher assessment accuracy, better robustness and adaptability than conventional methods. Besides, parameters in the system layer can provide valuable information about the influences of individual buses on SVS. Test results on the real-world Guangdong Power Grid in South China verify the effectiveness of the proposed network.

Driver Behavior Modelling at the Urban Intersection via Canonical Correlation Analysis

The urban intersection is a typically dynamic and complex scenario for intelligent vehicles, which exists a variety of driving behaviors and traffic participants. Accurately modelling the driver behavior at the intersection is essential for intelligent transportation systems (ITS). Previous researches mainly focus on using attention mechanism to model the degree of correlation. In this research, a canonical correlation analysis (CCA)-based framework is proposed. The value of canonical correlation is used for feature selection. Gaussian mixture model and Gaussian process regression are applied for driver behavior modelling. Two experiments using simulated and naturalistic driving data are designed for verification. Experimental results are consistent with the driver's judgment. Comparative studies show that the proposed framework can obtain a better performance.

MOTS: Multiple Object Tracking for General Categories Based On Few-Shot Method

Most modern Multi-Object Tracking (MOT) systems typically apply REID-based paradigm to hold a balance between computational efficiency and performance. In the past few years, numerous attempts have been made to perfect the systems. Although they presented favorable performance, they were constrained to track specified category. Drawing on the ideas of few shot method, we pioneered a new multi-target tracking system, named MOTS, which is based on metrics but not limited to track specific category. It contains two stages in series: In the first stage, we design the self-Adaptive-matching module to perform simple targets matching, which can complete 88.76% assignments without sacrificing performance on MOT16 training set. In the second stage, a Fine-match Network was carefully designed for unmatched targets. With a newly built TRACK-REID data-set, the Fine-match Network can perform matching of 31 category targets, even generalizes to unseen categories.

Analyzing Linguistic Complexity and Scientific Impact

The number of publications and the number of citations received have become the most common indicators of scholarly success. In this context, scientific writing increasingly plays an important role in scholars' scientific careers. To understand the relationship between scientific writing and scientific impact, this paper selected 12 variables of linguistic complexity as a proxy for depicting scientific writing. We then analyzed these features from 36,400 full-text Biology articles and 1,797 full-text Psychology articles. These features were compared to the scientific impact of articles, grouped into high, medium, and low categories. The results suggested no practical significant relationship between linguistic complexity and citation strata in either discipline. This suggests that textual complexity plays little role in scientific impact in our data sets.