Statistical Agnostic Regression: a machine learning method to validate regression models

Regression analysis is a central topic in statistical modeling, aiming to estimate the relationships between a dependent variable, commonly referred to as the response variable, and one or more independent variables, i.e., explanatory variables. Linear regression is by far the most popular method for performing this task in several fields of research, such as prediction, forecasting, or causal inference. Beyond various classical methods to solve linear regression problems, such as Ordinary Least Squares, Ridge, or Lasso regressions - which are often the foundation for more advanced machine learning (ML) techniques - the latter have been successfully applied in this scenario without a formal definition of statistical significance. At most, permutation or classical analyses based on empirical measures (e.g., residuals or accuracy) have been conducted to reflect the greater ability of ML estimations for detection. In this paper, we introduce a method, named Statistical Agnostic Regression (SAR), for evaluating the statistical significance of an ML-based linear regression based on concentration inequalities of the actual risk using the analysis of the worst case. To achieve this goal, similar to the classification problem, we define a threshold to establish that there is sufficient evidence with a probability of at least 1-eta to conclude that there is a linear relationship in the population between the explanatory (feature) and the response (label) variables. Simulations in only two dimensions demonstrate the ability of the proposed agnostic test to provide a similar analysis of variance given by the classical $F$ test for the slope parameter.

From PARIS to LE-PARIS: Toward Patent Response Automation with Recommender Systems and Collaborative Large Language Models

In patent prosecution, timely and effective responses to Office Actions (OAs) are crucial for acquiring patents, yet past automation and AI research have scarcely addressed this aspect. To address this gap, our study introduces the Patent Office Action Response Intelligence System (PARIS) and its advanced version, the Large Language Model Enhanced PARIS (LE-PARIS). These systems are designed to expedite the efficiency of patent attorneys in collaboratively handling OA responses. The systems' key features include the construction of an OA Topics Database, development of Response Templates, and implementation of Recommender Systems and LLM-based Response Generation. Our validation involves a multi-paradigmatic analysis using the USPTO Office Action database and longitudinal data of attorney interactions with our systems over six years. Through five studies, we examine the constructiveness of OA topics (studies 1 and 2) using topic modeling and the proposed Delphi process, the efficacy of our proposed hybrid recommender system tailored for OA (both LLM-based and non-LLM-based) (study 3), the quality of response generation (study 4), and the practical value of the systems in real-world scenarios via user studies (study 5). Results demonstrate that both PARIS and LE-PARIS significantly meet key metrics and positively impact attorney performance.

Beyond Automated Evaluation Metrics: Evaluating Topic Models On Practical Social Science Content Analysis Tasks

Topic models are a popular tool for understanding text collections, but their evaluation has been a point of contention. Automated evaluation metrics such as coherence are often used, however, their validity has been questioned for neural topic models (NTMs) and can overlook the benefits of a model in real world applications. To this end, we conduct the first evaluation of neural, supervised and classical topic models in an interactive task based setting. We combine topic models with a classifier and test their ability to help humans conduct content analysis and document annotation. From simulated, real user and expert pilot studies, the Contextual Neural Topic Model does the best on cluster evaluation metrics and human evaluations; however, LDA is competitive with two other NTMs under our simulated experiment and user study results, contrary to what coherence scores suggest. We show that current automated metrics do not provide a complete picture of topic modeling capabilities, but the right choice of NTMs can be better than classical models on practical tasks.

Towards the TopMost: A Topic Modeling System Toolkit

Topic models have been proposed for decades with various applications and recently refreshed by the neural variational inference. However, these topic models adopt totally distinct dataset, implementation, and evaluation settings, which hinders their quick utilization and fair comparisons. This greatly hinders the research progress of topic models. To address these issues, in this paper we propose a Topic Modeling System Toolkit (TopMost). Compared to existing toolkits, TopMost stands out by covering a wider range of topic modeling scenarios including complete lifecycles with dataset pre-processing, model training, testing, and evaluations. The highly cohesive and decoupled modular design of TopMost enables quick utilization, fair comparisons, and flexible extensions of different topic models. This can facilitate the research and applications of topic models. Our code, tutorials, and documentation are available at https://github.com/bobxwu/topmost.

A Novel Method of Fuzzy Topic Modeling based on Transformer Processing

Topic modeling is admittedly a convenient way to monitor markets trend. Conventionally, Latent Dirichlet Allocation, LDA, is considered a must-do model to gain this type of information. By given the merit of deducing keyword with token conditional probability in LDA, we can know the most possible or essential topic. However, the results are not intuitive because the given topics cannot wholly fit human knowledge. LDA offers the first possible relevant keywords, which also brings out another problem of whether the connection is reliable based on the statistic possibility. It is also hard to decide the topic number manually in advance. As the booming trend of using fuzzy membership to cluster and using transformers to embed words, this work presents the fuzzy topic modeling based on soft clustering and document embedding from state-of-the-art transformer-based model. In our practical application in a press release monitoring, the fuzzy topic modeling gives a more natural result than the traditional output from LDA.

DeTiME: Diffusion-Enhanced Topic Modeling using Encoder-decoder based LLM

In the burgeoning field of natural language processing, Neural Topic Models (NTMs) and Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as areas of significant research interest. Despite this, NTMs primarily utilize contextual embeddings from LLMs, which are not optimal for clustering or capable for topic generation. Our study addresses this gap by introducing a novel framework named Diffusion-Enhanced Topic Modeling using Encoder-Decoder-based LLMs (DeTiME). DeTiME leverages ncoder-Decoder-based LLMs to produce highly clusterable embeddings that could generate topics that exhibit both superior clusterability and enhanced semantic coherence compared to existing methods. Additionally, by exploiting the power of diffusion, our framework also provides the capability to generate content relevant to the identified topics. This dual functionality allows users to efficiently produce highly clustered topics and related content simultaneously. DeTiME's potential extends to generating clustered embeddings as well. Notably, our proposed framework proves to be efficient to train and exhibits high adaptability, demonstrating its potential for a wide array of applications.

Recent Advances in Text Analysis

Text analysis is an interesting research area in data science and has various applications, such as in artificial intelligence, biomedical research, and engineering. We review popular methods for text analysis, ranging from topic modeling to the recent neural language models. In particular, we review Topic-SCORE, a statistical approach to topic modeling, and discuss how to use it to analyze MADStat - a dataset on statistical publications that we collected and cleaned. The application of Topic-SCORE and other methods on MADStat leads to interesting findings. For example, $11$ representative topics in statistics are identified. For each journal, the evolution of topic weights over time can be visualized, and these results are used to analyze the trends in statistical research. In particular, we propose a new statistical model for ranking the citation impacts of $11$ topics, and we also build a cross-topic citation graph to illustrate how research results on different topics spread to one another. The results on MADStat provide a data-driven picture of the statistical research in $1975$--$2015$, from a text analysis perspective.

Navigating Dataset Documentations in AI: A Large-Scale Analysis of Dataset Cards on Hugging Face

Advances in machine learning are closely tied to the creation of datasets. While data documentation is widely recognized as essential to the reliability, reproducibility, and transparency of ML, we lack a systematic empirical understanding of current dataset documentation practices. To shed light on this question, here we take Hugging Face -- one of the largest platforms for sharing and collaborating on ML models and datasets -- as a prominent case study. By analyzing all 7,433 dataset documentation on Hugging Face, our investigation provides an overview of the Hugging Face dataset ecosystem and insights into dataset documentation practices, yielding 5 main findings: (1) The dataset card completion rate shows marked heterogeneity correlated with dataset popularity. (2) A granular examination of each section within the dataset card reveals that the practitioners seem to prioritize Dataset Description and Dataset Structure sections, while the Considerations for Using the Data section receives the lowest proportion of content. (3) By analyzing the subsections within each section and utilizing topic modeling to identify key topics, we uncover what is discussed in each section, and underscore significant themes encompassing both technical and social impacts, as well as limitations within the Considerations for Using the Data section. (4) Our findings also highlight the need for improved accessibility and reproducibility of datasets in the Usage sections. (5) In addition, our human annotation evaluation emphasizes the pivotal role of comprehensive dataset content in shaping individuals' perceptions of a dataset card's overall quality. Overall, our study offers a unique perspective on analyzing dataset documentation through large-scale data science analysis and underlines the need for more thorough dataset documentation in machine learning research.

Dynamic planning in hierarchical active inference

By dynamic planning, we refer to the ability of the human brain to infer and impose motor trajectories related to cognitive decisions. A recent paradigm, active inference, brings fundamental insights into the adaptation of biological organisms, constantly striving to minimize prediction errors to restrict themselves to life-compatible states. Over the past years, many studies have shown how human and animal behavior could be explained in terms of an active inferential process -- either as discrete decision-making or continuous motor control -- inspiring innovative solutions in robotics and artificial intelligence. Still, the literature lacks a comprehensive outlook on how to effectively plan actions in changing environments. Setting ourselves the goal of modeling tool use, we delve into the topic of dynamic planning in active inference, keeping in mind two crucial aspects of biological goal-directed behavior: the capacity to understand and exploit affordances for object manipulation, and to learn the hierarchical interactions between the self and the environment, including other agents. We start from a simple unit and gradually describe more advanced structures, comparing recently proposed design choices and providing basic examples for each section. This study distances itself from traditional views centered on neural networks and reinforcement learning, and points toward a yet unexplored direction in active inference: hybrid representations in hierarchical models.

Text mining arXiv: a look through quantitative finance papers

This paper explores articles hosted on the arXiv preprint server with the aim to uncover valuable insights hidden in this vast collection of research. Employing text mining techniques and through the application of natural language processing methods, we examine the contents of quantitative finance papers posted in arXiv from 1997 to 2022. We extract and analyze crucial information from the entire documents, including the references, to understand the topics trends over time and to find out the most cited researchers and journals on this domain. Additionally, we compare numerous algorithms to perform topic modeling, including state-of-the-art approaches.