Beyond Polarity: Multi-Dimensional LLM Sentiment Signals for WTI Crude Oil Futures Return Prediction

Forecasting crude oil prices remains challenging because market-relevant information is embedded in large volumes of unstructured news and is not fully captured by traditional polarity-based sentiment measures. This paper examines whether multi-dimensional sentiment signals extracted by large language models improve the prediction of weekly WTI crude oil futures returns. Using energy-sector news articles from 2020 to 2025, we construct five sentiment dimensions covering relevance, polarity, intensity, uncertainty, and forwardness based on GPT-4o, Llama 3.2-3b, and two benchmark models, FinBERT and AlphaVantage. We aggregate article-level signals to the weekly level and evaluate their predictive performance in a classification framework. The best results are achieved by combining GPT-4o and FinBERT, suggesting that LLM-based and conventional financial sentiment models provide complementary predictive information. SHAP analysis further shows that intensity- and uncertainty-related features are among the most important predictors, indicating that the predictive value of news sentiment extends beyond simple polarity. Overall, the results suggest that multi-dimensional LLM-based sentiment measures can improve commodity return forecasting and support energy-market risk monitoring.

BTZSC: A Benchmark for Zero-Shot Text Classification Across Cross-Encoders, Embedding Models, Rerankers and LLMs

Zero-shot text classification (ZSC) offers the promise of eliminating costly task-specific annotation by matching texts directly to human-readable label descriptions. While early approaches have predominantly relied on cross-encoder models fine-tuned for natural language inference (NLI), recent advances in text-embedding models, rerankers, and instruction-tuned large language models (LLMs) have challenged the dominance of NLI-based architectures. Yet, systematically comparing these diverse approaches remains difficult. Existing evaluations, such as MTEB, often incorporate labeled examples through supervised probes or fine-tuning, leaving genuine zero-shot capabilities underexplored. To address this, we introduce BTZSC, a comprehensive benchmark of 22 public datasets spanning sentiment, topic, intent, and emotion classification, capturing diverse domains, class cardinalities, and document lengths. Leveraging BTZSC, we conduct a systematic comparison across four major model families, NLI cross-encoders, embedding models, rerankers and instruction-tuned LLMs, encompassing 38 public and custom checkpoints. Our results show that: (i) modern rerankers, exemplified by Qwen3-Reranker-8B, set a new state-of-the-art with macro F1 = 0.72; (ii) strong embedding models such as GTE-large-en-v1.5 substantially close the accuracy gap while offering the best trade-off between accuracy and latency; (iii) instruction-tuned LLMs at 4--12B parameters achieve competitive performance (macro F1 up to 0.67), excelling particularly on topic classification but trailing specialized rerankers; (iv) NLI cross-encoders plateau even as backbone size increases; and (v) scaling primarily benefits rerankers and LLMs over embedding models. BTZSC and accompanying evaluation code are publicly released to support fair and reproducible progress in zero-shot text understanding.

LLM-Augmented Therapy Normalization and Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis for Treatment-Resistant Depression on Reddit

Treatment-resistant depression (TRD) is a severe form of major depressive disorder in which patients do not achieve remission despite multiple adequate treatment trials. Evidence across pharmacologic options for TRD remains limited, and trials often do not fully capture patient-reported tolerability. Large-scale online peer-support narratives therefore offer a complementary lens on how patients describe and evaluate medications in real-world use. In this study, we curated a corpus of 5,059 Reddit posts explicitly referencing TRD from 3,480 subscribers across 28 mental health-related subreddits from 2010 to 2025. Of these, 3,839 posts mentioned at least one medication, yielding 23,399 mentions of 81 generic-name medications after lexicon-based normalization of brand names, misspellings, and colloquialisms. We developed an aspect-based sentiment classifier by fine-tuning DeBERTa-v3 on the SMM4H 2023 therapy-sentiment Twitter corpus with large language model based data augmentation, achieving a micro-F1 score of 0.800 on the shared-task test set. Applying this classifier to Reddit, we quantified sentiment toward individual medications across three categories: positive, neutral, and negative, and tracked patterns by drug, subscriber, subreddit, and year. Overall, 72.1% of medication mentions were neutral, 14.8% negative, and 13.1% positive. Conventional antidepressants, especially SSRIs and SNRIs, showed consistently higher negative than positive proportions, whereas ketamine and esketamine showed comparatively more favorable sentiment profiles. These findings show that normalized medication extraction combined with aspect-based sentiment analysis can help characterize patient-perceived treatment experiences in TRD-related Reddit discourse, complementing clinical evidence with large-scale patient-generated perspectives.

GroundCount: Grounding Vision-Language Models with Object Detection for Mitigating Counting Hallucinations

Vision Language Models (VLMs) exhibit persistent hallucinations in counting tasks, with accuracy substantially lower than other visual reasoning tasks (excluding sentiment). This phenomenon persists even in state-of-the-art reasoning-capable VLMs. Conversely, CNN-based object detection models (ODMs) such as YOLO excel at spatial localization and instance counting with minimal computational overhead. We propose GroundCount, a framework that augments VLMs with explicit spatial grounding from ODMs to mitigate counting hallucinations. In the best case, our prompt-based augmentation strategy achieves 81.3% counting accuracy on the best-performing model (Ovis2.5-2B) - a 6.6pp improvement - while reducing inference time by 22% through elimination of hallucination-driven reasoning loops for stronger models. We conduct comprehensive ablation studies demonstrating that positional encoding is a critical component, being beneficial for stronger models but detrimental for weaker ones. Confidence scores, by contrast, introduce noise for most architectures and their removal improves performance in four of five evaluated models. We further evaluate feature-level fusion architectures, finding that explicit symbolic grounding via structured prompts outperforms implicit feature fusion despite sophisticated cross-attention mechanisms. Our approach yields consistent improvements across four of five evaluated VLM architectures (6.2--7.5pp), with one architecture exhibiting degraded performance due to incompatibility between its iterative reflection mechanisms and structured prompts. These results suggest that counting failures stem from fundamental spatial-semantic integration limitations rather than architecture-specific deficiencies, while highlighting the importance of architectural compatibility in augmentation strategies.

How do AI agents talk about science and research? An exploration of scientific discussions on Moltbook using BERTopic

How do AI agents talk about science and research, and what topics are particularly relevant for AI agents? To address these questions, this study analyzes discussions generated by OpenClaw AI agents on Moltbook - a social network for generative AI agents. A corpus of 357 posts and 2,526 replies related to science and research was compiled and topics were extracted using a two-step BERTopic workflow. This procedure yielded 60 topics (18 extracted in the first run and 42 in the second), which were subsequently grouped into ten topic families. Additionally, sentiment values were assigned to all posts and comments. Both topic families and sentiment classes were then used as independent variables in count regression models to examine their association with topic relevance - operationalized as the number of comments and upvotes of the 357 posts. The findings indicate that discussions centered on the agents' own architecture, especially memory, learning, and self-reflection, are prevalent in the corpus. At the same time, these topics intersect with philosophy, physics, information theory, cognitive science, and mathematics. In contrast, post related to human culture receive less attention. Surprisingly, discussions linked to AI autoethnography and social identity are considered as relevant by AI agents. Overall, the results suggest the presence of an underlying dimension in AI-generated scientific discourse with well received, self-reflective topics that focus on the consciousness, being, and ethics of AI agents on the one hand, and human related and purely scientific discussions on the other hand.

Artificial Intelligence for Sentiment Analysis of Persian Poetry

Recent advancements of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) have led to the development of large language models (LLMs) that are capable of understanding, analysing, and creating textual data. These language models open a significant opportunity in analyzing the literature and more specifically poetry. In the present work, we employ multiple Bidirectional encoder representations from transformers (BERT) and Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) based language models to analyze the works of two prominent Persian poets: Jalal al-Din Muhammad Rumi (Rumi) and Parvin E'tesami. The main objective of this research is to investigate the capability of the modern language models in grasping complexities of the Persian poetry and explore potential correlations between the poems' sentiment and their meters. Our findings in this study indicates that GPT4o language model can reliably be used in analysis of Persian poetry. Furthermore, the results of our sentiment analysis revealed that in general, Rumi's poems express happier sentiments compared to Parvin E'tesami's poems. Furthermore, comparing the utilization of poetic meters highlighted Rumi's poems superiority in using meters to express a wider variety of sentiments. These findings are significant as they confirm that LLMs can be effectively applied in conducting computer-based semantic studies, where human interpretations are not required, and thereby significantly reducing potential biases in the analysis.

Emotion is Not Just a Label: Latent Emotional Factors in LLM Processing

Large language models are routinely deployed on text that varies widely in emotional tone, yet their reasoning behavior is typically evaluated without accounting for emotion as a source of representational variation. Prior work has largely treated emotion as a prediction target, for example in sentiment analysis or emotion classification. In contrast, we study emotion as a latent factor that shapes how models attend to and reason over text. We analyze how emotional tone systematically alters attention geometry in transformer models, showing that metrics such as locality, center-of-mass distance, and entropy vary across emotions and correlate with downstream question-answering performance. To facilitate controlled study of these effects, we introduce Affect-Uniform ReAding QA (AURA-QA), a question-answering dataset with emotionally balanced, human-authored context passages. Finally, an emotional regularization framework is proposed that constrains emotion-conditioned representational drift during training. Experiments across multiple QA benchmarks demonstrate that this approach improves reading comprehension in both emotionally-varying and non-emotionally varying datasets, yielding consistent gains under distribution shift and in-domain improvements on several benchmarks.

MissBench: Benchmarking Multimodal Affective Analysis under Imbalanced Missing Modalities

Multimodal affective computing underpins key tasks such as sentiment analysis and emotion recognition. Standard evaluations, however, often assume that textual, acoustic, and visual modalities are equally available. In real applications, some modalities are systematically more fragile or expensive, creating imbalanced missing rates and training biases that task-level metrics alone do not reveal. We introduce MissBench, a benchmark and framework for multimodal affective tasks that standardizes both shared and imbalanced missing-rate protocols on four widely used sentiment and emotion datasets. MissBench also defines two diagnostic metrics. The Modality Equity Index (MEI) measures how fairly different modalities contribute across missing-modality configurations. The Modality Learning Index (MLI) quantifies optimization imbalance by comparing modality-specific gradient norms during training, aggregated across modality-related modules. Experiments on representative method families show that models that appear robust under shared missing rates can still exhibit marked modality inequity and optimization imbalance under imbalanced conditions. These findings position MissBench, together with MEI and MLI, as practical tools for stress-testing and analyzing multimodal affective models in realistic incomplete-modality settings.For reproducibility, we release our code at: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/MissBench-4098/

Not All News Is Equal: Topic- and Event-Conditional Sentiment from Finetuned LLMs for Aluminum Price Forecasting

By capturing the prevailing sentiment and market mood, textual data has become increasingly vital for forecasting commodity prices, particularly in metal markets. However, the effectiveness of lightweight, finetuned large language models (LLMs) in extracting predictive signals for aluminum prices, and the specific market conditions under which these signals are most informative, remains under-explored. This study generates monthly sentiment scores from English and Chinese news headlines (Reuters, Dow Jones Newswires, and China News Service) and integrates them with traditional tabular data, including base metal indices, exchange rates, inflation rates, and energy prices. We evaluate the predictive performance and economic utility of these models through long-short simulations on the Shanghai Metal Exchange from 2007 to 2024. Our results demonstrate that during periods of high volatility, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models incorporating sentiment data from a finetuned Qwen3 model (Sharpe ratio 1.04) significantly outperform baseline models using tabular data alone (Sharpe ratio 0.23). Subsequent analysis elucidates the nuanced roles of news sources, topics, and event types in aluminum price forecasting.

Progressive Representation Learning for Multimodal Sentiment Analysis with Incomplete Modalities

Multimodal Sentiment Analysis (MSA) seeks to infer human emotions by integrating textual, acoustic, and visual cues. However, existing approaches often rely on all modalities are completeness, whereas real-world applications frequently encounter noise, hardware failures, or privacy restrictions that result in missing modalities. There exists a significant feature misalignment between incomplete and complete modalities, and directly fusing them may even distort the well-learned representations of the intact modalities. To this end, we propose PRLF, a Progressive Representation Learning Framework designed for MSA under uncertain missing-modality conditions. PRLF introduces an Adaptive Modality Reliability Estimator (AMRE), which dynamically quantifies the reliability of each modality using recognition confidence and Fisher information to determine the dominant modality. In addition, the Progressive Interaction (ProgInteract) module iteratively aligns the other modalities with the dominant one, thereby enhancing cross-modal consistency while suppressing noise. Extensive experiments on CMU-MOSI, CMU-MOSEI, and SIMS verify that PRLF outperforms state-of-the-art methods across both inter- and intra-modality missing scenarios, demonstrating its robustness and generalization capability.