Disentangling Bias by Modeling Intra- and Inter-modal Causal Attention for Multimodal Sentiment Analysis

Multimodal sentiment analysis (MSA) aims to understand human emotions by integrating information from multiple modalities, such as text, audio, and visual data. However, existing methods often suffer from spurious correlations both within and across modalities, leading models to rely on statistical shortcuts rather than true causal relationships, thereby undermining generalization. To mitigate this issue, we propose a Multi-relational Multimodal Causal Intervention (MMCI) model, which leverages the backdoor adjustment from causal theory to address the confounding effects of such shortcuts. Specifically, we first model the multimodal inputs as a multi-relational graph to explicitly capture intra- and inter-modal dependencies. Then, we apply an attention mechanism to separately estimate and disentangle the causal features and shortcut features corresponding to these intra- and inter-modal relations. Finally, by applying the backdoor adjustment, we stratify the shortcut features and dynamically combine them with the causal features to encourage MMCI to produce stable predictions under distribution shifts. Extensive experiments on several standard MSA datasets and out-of-distribution (OOD) test sets demonstrate that our method effectively suppresses biases and improves performance.

Resource-Limited Joint Multimodal Sentiment Reasoning and Classification via Chain-of-Thought Enhancement and Distillation

The surge in rich multimodal content on social media platforms has greatly advanced Multimodal Sentiment Analysis (MSA), with Large Language Models (LLMs) further accelerating progress in this field. Current approaches primarily leverage the knowledge and reasoning capabilities of parameter-heavy (Multimodal) LLMs for sentiment classification, overlooking autonomous multimodal sentiment reasoning generation in resource-constrained environments. Therefore, we focus on the Resource-Limited Joint Multimodal Sentiment Reasoning and Classification task, JMSRC, which simultaneously performs multimodal sentiment reasoning chain generation and sentiment classification only with a lightweight model. We propose a Multimodal Chain-of-Thought Reasoning Distillation model, MulCoT-RD, designed for JMSRC that employs a "Teacher-Assistant-Student" distillation paradigm to address deployment constraints in resource-limited environments. We first leverage a high-performance Multimodal Large Language Model (MLLM) to generate the initial reasoning dataset and train a medium-sized assistant model with a multi-task learning mechanism. A lightweight student model is jointly trained to perform efficient multimodal sentiment reasoning generation and classification. Extensive experiments on four datasets demonstrate that MulCoT-RD with only 3B parameters achieves strong performance on JMSRC, while exhibiting robust generalization and enhanced interpretability.

Reasoning Beyond Labels: Measuring LLM Sentiment in Low-Resource, Culturally Nuanced Contexts

Sentiment analysis in low-resource, culturally nuanced contexts challenges conventional NLP approaches that assume fixed labels and universal affective expressions. We present a diagnostic framework that treats sentiment as a context-dependent, culturally embedded construct, and evaluate how large language models (LLMs) reason about sentiment in informal, code-mixed WhatsApp messages from Nairobi youth health groups. Using a combination of human-annotated data, sentiment-flipped counterfactuals, and rubric-based explanation evaluation, we probe LLM interpretability, robustness, and alignment with human reasoning. Framing our evaluation through a social-science measurement lens, we operationalize and interrogate LLMs outputs as an instrument for measuring the abstract concept of sentiment. Our findings reveal significant variation in model reasoning quality, with top-tier LLMs demonstrating interpretive stability, while open models often falter under ambiguity or sentiment shifts. This work highlights the need for culturally sensitive, reasoning-aware AI evaluation in complex, real-world communication.

Federal Reserve Communication and the COVID-19 Pandemic

In this study, we examine the Federal Reserve's communication strategies during the COVID-19 pandemic, comparing them with communication during previous periods of economic stress. Using specialized dictionaries tailored to COVID-19, unconventional monetary policy (UMP), and financial stability, combined with sentiment analysis and topic modeling techniques, we identify a distinct focus in Fed communication during the pandemic on financial stability, market volatility, social welfare, and UMP, characterized by notable contextual uncertainty. Through comparative analysis, we juxtapose the Fed's communication during the COVID-19 crisis with its responses during the dot-com and global financial crises, examining content, sentiment, and timing dimensions. Our findings reveal that Fed communication and policy actions were more reactive to the COVID-19 crisis than to previous crises. Additionally, declining sentiment related to financial stability in interest rate announcements and minutes anticipated subsequent accommodative monetary policy decisions. We further document that communicating about UMP has become the "new normal" for the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes and Chairman's speeches since the Global Financial Crisis, reflecting an institutional adaptation in communication strategy following periods of economic distress. These findings contribute to our understanding of how central bank communication evolves during crises and how communication strategies adapt to exceptional economic circumstances.

Echo State Networks for Bitcoin Time Series Prediction

Forecasting stock and cryptocurrency prices is challenging due to high volatility and non-stationarity, influenced by factors like economic changes and market sentiment. Previous research shows that Echo State Networks (ESNs) can effectively model short-term stock market movements, capturing nonlinear patterns in dynamic data. To the best of our knowledge, this work is among the first to explore ESNs for cryptocurrency forecasting, especially during extreme volatility. We also conduct chaos analysis through the Lyapunov exponent in chaotic periods and show that our approach outperforms existing machine learning methods by a significant margin. Our findings are consistent with the Lyapunov exponent analysis, showing that ESNs are robust during chaotic periods and excel under high chaos compared to Boosting and Na\"ive methods.

How Do LLMs Persuade? Linear Probes Can Uncover Persuasion Dynamics in Multi-Turn Conversations

Large Language Models (LLMs) have started to demonstrate the ability to persuade humans, yet our understanding of how this dynamic transpires is limited. Recent work has used linear probes, lightweight tools for analyzing model representations, to study various LLM skills such as the ability to model user sentiment and political perspective. Motivated by this, we apply probes to study persuasion dynamics in natural, multi-turn conversations. We leverage insights from cognitive science to train probes on distinct aspects of persuasion: persuasion success, persuadee personality, and persuasion strategy. Despite their simplicity, we show that they capture various aspects of persuasion at both the sample and dataset levels. For instance, probes can identify the point in a conversation where the persuadee was persuaded or where persuasive success generally occurs across the entire dataset. We also show that in addition to being faster than expensive prompting-based approaches, probes can do just as well and even outperform prompting in some settings, such as when uncovering persuasion strategy. This suggests probes as a plausible avenue for studying other complex behaviours such as deception and manipulation, especially in multi-turn settings and large-scale dataset analysis where prompting-based methods would be computationally inefficient.

Technical Indicator Networks (TINs): An Interpretable Neural Architecture Modernizing Classic al Technical Analysis for Adaptive Algorithmic Trading

This work proposes that a vast majority of classical technical indicators in financial analysis are, in essence, special cases of neural networks with fixed and interpretable weights. It is shown that nearly all such indicators, such as moving averages, momentum-based oscillators, volatility bands, and other commonly used technical constructs, can be reconstructed topologically as modular neural network components. Technical Indicator Networks (TINs) are introduced as a general neural architecture that replicates and structurally upgrades traditional indicators by supporting n-dimensional inputs such as price, volume, sentiment, and order book data. By encoding domain-specific knowledge into neural structures, TINs modernize the foundational logic of technical analysis and propel algorithmic trading into a new era, bridging the legacy of proven indicators with the potential of contemporary AI systems.

Cross-lingual Few-shot Learning for Persian Sentiment Analysis with Incremental Adaptation

This research examines cross-lingual sentiment analysis using few-shot learning and incremental learning methods in Persian. The main objective is to develop a model capable of performing sentiment analysis in Persian using limited data, while getting prior knowledge from high-resource languages. To achieve this, three pre-trained multilingual models (XLM-RoBERTa, mDeBERTa, and DistilBERT) were employed, which were fine-tuned using few-shot and incremental learning approaches on small samples of Persian data from diverse sources, including X, Instagram, Digikala, Snappfood, and Taaghche. This variety enabled the models to learn from a broad range of contexts. Experimental results show that the mDeBERTa and XLM-RoBERTa achieved high performances, reaching 96% accuracy on Persian sentiment analysis. These findings highlight the effectiveness of combining few-shot learning and incremental learning with multilingual pre-trained models.

DCR: Quantifying Data Contamination in LLMs Evaluation

The rapid advancement of large language models (LLMs) has heightened concerns about benchmark data contamination (BDC), where models inadvertently memorize evaluation data, inflating performance metrics and undermining genuine generalization assessment. This paper introduces the Data Contamination Risk (DCR) framework, a lightweight, interpretable pipeline designed to detect and quantify BDC across four granular levels: semantic, informational, data, and label. By synthesizing contamination scores via a fuzzy inference system, DCR produces a unified DCR Factor that adjusts raw accuracy to reflect contamination-aware performance. Validated on 9 LLMs (0.5B-72B) across sentiment analysis, fake news detection, and arithmetic reasoning tasks, the DCR framework reliably diagnoses contamination severity and with accuracy adjusted using the DCR Factor to within 4% average error across the three benchmarks compared to the uncontaminated baseline. Emphasizing computational efficiency and transparency, DCR provides a practical tool for integrating contamination assessment into routine evaluations, fostering fairer comparisons and enhancing the credibility of LLM benchmarking practices.

GNN-CNN: An Efficient Hybrid Model of Convolutional and Graph Neural Networks for Text Representation

Time, cost, and energy efficiency are critical considerations in Deep-Learning (DL), particularly when processing long texts. Transformers, which represent the current state of the art, exhibit quadratic computational complexity relative to input length, making them inefficient for extended documents. This study introduces a novel model architecture that combines Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), integrated with a real-time, end-to-end graph generation mechanism. The model processes compact batches of character-level inputs without requiring padding or truncation. To enhance performance while maintaining high speed and efficiency, the model incorporates information from Large Language Models (LLMs), such as token embeddings and sentiment polarities, through efficient dictionary lookups. It captures local contextual patterns using CNNs, expands local receptive fields via lattice-based graph structures, and employs small-world graphs to aggregate document-level information. The generated graphs exhibit structural properties indicative of meaningful semantic organization, with an average clustering coefficient of approximately 0.45 and an average shortest path length ranging between 4 and 5. The model is evaluated across multiple text classification tasks, including sentiment analysis and news-categorization, and is compared against state-of-the-art models. Experimental results confirm the proposed model's efficiency and competitive performance.