Mining Citywide Dengue Spread Patterns in Singapore Through Hotspot Dynamics from Open Web Data

Dengue, a mosquito-borne disease, continues to pose a persistent public health challenge in urban areas, particularly in tropical regions such as Singapore. Effective and affordable control requires anticipating where transmission risks are likely to emerge so that interventions can be deployed proactively rather than reactively. This study introduces a novel framework that uncovers and exploits latent transmission links between urban regions, mined directly from publicly available dengue case data. Instead of treating cases as isolated reports, we model how hotspot formation in one area is influenced by epidemic dynamics in neighboring regions. While mosquito movement is highly localized, long-distance transmission is often driven by human mobility, and in our case study, the learned network aligns closely with commuting flows, providing an interpretable explanation for citywide spread. These hidden links are optimized through gradient descent and used not only to forecast hotspot status but also to verify the consistency of spreading patterns, by examining the stability of the inferred network across consecutive weeks. Case studies on Singapore during 2013-2018 and 2020 show that four weeks of hotspot history are sufficient to achieve an average F-score of 0.79. Importantly, the learned transmission links align with commuting flows, highlighting the interpretable interplay between hidden epidemic spread and human mobility. By shifting from simply reporting dengue cases to mining and validating hidden spreading dynamics, this work transforms open web-based case data into a predictive and explanatory resource. The proposed framework advances epidemic modeling while providing a scalable, low-cost tool for public health planning, early intervention, and urban resilience.

Supporting Migration Policies with Forecasts: Illegal Border Crossings in Europe through a Mixed Approach

This paper presents a mixed-methodology to forecast illegal border crossings in Europe across five key migratory routes, with a one-year time horizon. The methodology integrates machine learning techniques with qualitative insights from migration experts. This approach aims at improving the predictive capacity of data-driven models through the inclusion of a human-assessed covariate, an innovation that addresses challenges posed by sudden shifts in migration patterns and limitations in traditional datasets. The proposed methodology responds directly to the forecasting needs outlined in the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum, supporting the Asylum and Migration Management Regulation (AMMR). It is designed to provide policy-relevant forecasts that inform strategic decisions, early warning systems, and solidarity mechanisms among EU Member States. By joining data-driven modeling with expert judgment, this work aligns with existing academic recommendations and introduces a novel operational tool tailored for EU migration governance. The methodology is tested and validated with known data to demonstrate its applicability and reliability in migration-related policy context.

Scriboora: Rethinking Human Pose Forecasting

Human pose forecasting predicts future poses based on past observations, and has many significant applications in areas such as action recognition, autonomous driving or human-robot interaction. This paper evaluates a wide range of pose forecasting algorithms in the task of absolute pose forecasting, revealing many reproducibility issues, and provides a unified training and evaluation pipeline. After drawing a high-level analogy to the task of speech understanding, it is shown that recent speech models can be efficiently adapted to the task of pose forecasting, and improve current state-of-the-art performance. At last the robustness of the models is evaluated, using noisy joint coordinates obtained from a pose estimator model, to reflect a realistic type of noise, which is more close to real-world applications. For this a new dataset variation is introduced, and it is shown that estimated poses result in a substantial performance degradation, and how much of it can be recovered again by unsupervised finetuning.

MiVLA: Towards Generalizable Vision-Language-Action Model with Human-Robot Mutual Imitation Pre-training

While leveraging abundant human videos and simulated robot data poses a scalable solution to the scarcity of real-world robot data, the generalization capability of existing vision-language-action models (VLAs) remains limited by mismatches in camera views, visual appearance, and embodiment morphologies. To overcome this limitation, we propose MiVLA, a generalizable VLA empowered by human-robot mutual imitation pre-training, which leverages inherent behavioral similarity between human hands and robotic arms to build a foundation of strong behavioral priors for both human actions and robotic control. Specifically, our method utilizes kinematic rules with left/right hand coordinate systems for bidirectional alignment between human and robot action spaces. Given human or simulated robot demonstrations, MiVLA is trained to forecast behavior trajectories for one embodiment, and imitate behaviors for another one unseen in the demonstration. Based on this mutual imitation, it integrates the behavioral fidelity of real-world human data with the manipulative diversity of simulated robot data into a unified model, thereby enhancing the generalization capability for downstream tasks. Extensive experiments conducted on both simulation and real-world platforms with three robots (ARX, PiPer and LocoMan), demonstrate that MiVLA achieves strong improved generalization capability, outperforming state-of-the-art VLAs (e.g., $\boldsymbolπ_{0}$, $\boldsymbolπ_{0.5}$ and H-RDT) by 25% in simulation, and 14% in real-world robot control tasks.

Early Warning Index for Patient Deteriorations in Hospitals

Hospitals lack automated systems to harness the growing volume of heterogeneous clinical and operational data to effectively forecast critical events. Early identification of patients at risk for deterioration is essential not only for patient care quality monitoring but also for physician care management. However, translating varied data streams into accurate and interpretable risk assessments poses significant challenges due to inconsistent data formats. We develop a multimodal machine learning framework, the Early Warning Index (EWI), to predict the aggregate risk of ICU admission, emergency response team dispatch, and mortality. Key to EWI's design is a human-in-the-loop process: clinicians help determine alert thresholds and interpret model outputs, which are enhanced by explainable outputs using Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to highlight clinical and operational factors (e.g., scheduled surgeries, ward census) driving each patient's risk. We deploy EWI in a hospital dashboard that stratifies patients into three risk tiers. Using a dataset of 18,633 unique patients at a large U.S. hospital, our approach automatically extracts features from both structured and unstructured electronic health record (EHR) data and achieves C-statistics of 0.796. It is currently used as a triage tool for proactively managing at-risk patients. The proposed approach saves physicians valuable time by automatically sorting patients of varying risk levels, allowing them to concentrate on patient care rather than sifting through complex EHR data. By further pinpointing specific risk drivers, the proposed model provides data-informed adjustments to caregiver scheduling and allocation of critical resources. As a result, clinicians and administrators can avert downstream complications, including costly procedures or high readmission rates and improve overall patient flow.

MAT-MPNN: A Mobility-Aware Transformer-MPNN Model for Dynamic Spatiotemporal Prediction of HIV Diagnoses in California, Florida, and New England

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) has posed a major global health challenge for decades, and forecasting HIV diagnoses continues to be a critical area of research. However, capturing the complex spatial and temporal dependencies of HIV transmission remains challenging. Conventional Message Passing Neural Network (MPNN) models rely on a fixed binary adjacency matrix that only encodes geographic adjacency, which is unable to represent interactions between non-contiguous counties. Our study proposes a deep learning architecture Mobility-Aware Transformer-Message Passing Neural Network (MAT-MPNN) framework to predict county-level HIV diagnosis rates across California, Florida, and the New England region. The model combines temporal features extracted by a Transformer encoder with spatial relationships captured through a Mobility Graph Generator (MGG). The MGG improves conventional adjacency matrices by combining geographic and demographic information. Compared with the best-performing hybrid baseline, the Transformer MPNN model, MAT-MPNN reduced the Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE) by 27.9% in Florida, 39.1% in California, and 12.5% in New England, and improved the Predictive Model Choice Criterion (PMCC) by 7.7%, 3.5%, and 3.9%, respectively. MAT-MPNN also achieved better results than the Spatially Varying Auto-Regressive (SVAR) model in Florida and New England, with comparable performance in California. These results demonstrate that applying mobility-aware dynamic spatial structures substantially enhances predictive accuracy and calibration in spatiotemporal epidemiological prediction.

Breaking the Passive Learning Trap: An Active Perception Strategy for Human Motion Prediction

Forecasting 3D human motion is an important embodiment of fine-grained understanding and cognition of human behavior by artificial agents. Current approaches excessively rely on implicit network modeling of spatiotemporal relationships and motion characteristics, falling into the passive learning trap that results in redundant and monotonous 3D coordinate information acquisition while lacking actively guided explicit learning mechanisms. To overcome these issues, we propose an Active Perceptual Strategy (APS) for human motion prediction, leveraging quotient space representations to explicitly encode motion properties while introducing auxiliary learning objectives to strengthen spatio-temporal modeling. Specifically, we first design a data perception module that projects poses into the quotient space, decoupling motion geometry from coordinate redundancy. By jointly encoding tangent vectors and Grassmann projections, this module simultaneously achieves geometric dimension reduction, semantic decoupling, and dynamic constraint enforcement for effective motion pose characterization. Furthermore, we introduce a network perception module that actively learns spatio-temporal dependencies through restorative learning. This module deliberately masks specific joints or injects noise to construct auxiliary supervision signals. A dedicated auxiliary learning network is designed to actively adapt and learn from perturbed information. Notably, APS is model agnostic and can be integrated with different prediction models to enhance active perceptual. The experimental results demonstrate that our method achieves the new state-of-the-art, outperforming existing methods by large margins: 16.3% on H3.6M, 13.9% on CMU Mocap, and 10.1% on 3DPW.

A Hybrid Autoencoder-Transformer Model for Robust Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting under Extreme Conditions

Accurate day-ahead electricity price forecasting (DAEPF) is critical for the efficient operation of power systems, but extreme condition and market anomalies pose significant challenges to existing forecasting methods. To overcome these challenges, this paper proposes a novel hybrid deep learning framework that integrates a Distilled Attention Transformer (DAT) model and an Autoencoder Self-regression Model (ASM). The DAT leverages a self-attention mechanism to dynamically assign higher weights to critical segments of historical data, effectively capturing both long-term trends and short-term fluctuations. Concurrently, the ASM employs unsupervised learning to detect and isolate anomalous patterns induced by extreme conditions, such as heavy rain, heat waves, or human festivals. Experiments on datasets sampled from California and Shandong Province demonstrate that our framework significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in prediction accuracy, robustness, and computational efficiency. Our framework thus holds promise for enhancing grid resilience and optimizing market operations in future power systems.

MODE: Learning compositional representations of complex systems with Mixtures Of Dynamical Experts

Dynamical systems in the life sciences are often composed of complex mixtures of overlapping behavioral regimes. Cellular subpopulations may shift from cycling to equilibrium dynamics or branch towards different developmental fates. The transitions between these regimes can appear noisy and irregular, posing a serious challenge to traditional, flow-based modeling techniques which assume locally smooth dynamics. To address this challenge, we propose MODE (Mixture Of Dynamical Experts), a graphical modeling framework whose neural gating mechanism decomposes complex dynamics into sparse, interpretable components, enabling both the unsupervised discovery of behavioral regimes and accurate long-term forecasting across regime transitions. Crucially, because agents in our framework can jump to different governing laws, MODE is especially tailored to the aforementioned noisy transitions. We evaluate our method on a battery of synthetic and real datasets from computational biology. First, we systematically benchmark MODE on an unsupervised classification task using synthetic dynamical snapshot data, including in noisy, few-sample settings. Next, we show how MODE succeeds on challenging forecasting tasks which simulate key cycling and branching processes in cell biology. Finally, we deploy our method on human, single-cell RNA sequencing data and show that it can not only distinguish proliferation from differentiation dynamics but also predict when cells will commit to their ultimate fate, a key outstanding challenge in computational biology.

Deep learning framework for predicting stochastic take-off and die-out of early spreading

Large-scale outbreaks of epidemics, misinformation, or other harmful contagions pose significant threats to human society, yet the fundamental question of whether an emerging outbreak will escalate into a major epidemic or naturally die out remains largely unaddressed. This problem is challenging, partially due to inadequate data during the early stages of outbreaks and also because established models focus on average behaviors of large epidemics rather than the stochastic nature of small transmission chains. Here, we introduce the first systematic framework for forecasting whether initial transmission events will amplify into major outbreaks or fade into extinction during early stages, when intervention strategies can still be effectively implemented. Using extensive data from stochastic spreading models, we developed a deep learning framework that predicts early-stage spreading outcomes in real-time. Validation across Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi and Barab\'asi-Albert networks with varying infectivity levels shows our method accurately forecasts stochastic spreading events well before potential outbreaks, demonstrating robust performance across different network structures and infectivity scenarios.To address the challenge of sparse data during early outbreak stages, we further propose a pretrain-finetune framework that leverages diverse simulation data for pretraining and adapts to specific scenarios through targeted fine-tuning. The pretrain-finetune framework consistently outperforms baseline models, achieving superior performance even when trained on limited scenario-specific data. To our knowledge, this work presents the first framework for predicting stochastic take-off versus die-out. This framework provides valuable insights for epidemic preparedness and public health decision-making, enabling more informed early intervention strategies.