Retrieval-Corrected Conformal Prediction for Time Series

Conformal prediction (CP) provides distribution-free prediction intervals for fixed forecasters, but its standard calibration procedure is often inefficient for time series data, where forecast errors are temporally dependent and change across time and operating conditions. Recent time series CP methods improve local calibration using recent, weighted, or localized residuals. Yet local calibration can remain indirect, since broad residual weighting or additional adaptation procedures may dilute the evidence most relevant to the current prediction. This motivates a simple retrieval and correction strategy that selects similar past residuals as local evidence and then corrects the coverage error left by retrieval. In this paper, we propose Retrieval--Corrected Conformal Prediction (RCCP), a retrieval-augmented calibration method for time series prediction intervals. RCCP builds an asymmetric interval from retrieved one-sided residuals and calibrates its normalized retrieval error with a scalar conformal correction. Thus, retrieval provides local residual evidence, while conformal correction determines the final scale needed for coverage. We provide a coverage-gap bound based on the stability of the normalized retrieval error distribution. Across standard benchmarks and backbone forecasters, RCCP attains the target coverage in every setting and achieves the lowest Winkler scores, with fewer severe misses. RCCP also achieves low calibration and inference overhead, showing that retrieval-corrected calibration is an effective and scalable approach to uncertainty quantification in time series forecasting. Code is available at https://github.com/jinsaaang/rccp.

Post-Calibration Reliability Reranking of Relevance Decisions via Label-wise Monotone Projection

Web search, product search, and question-answering retrieval systems often assign a relevance label and confidence score to each query-candidate pair. The relevance label describes how well a page, product, or passage matches the query, while the confidence often guides downstream use or fallback decisions. Post-hoc calibration is therefore needed because misaligned confidence can make systems over-trust wrong predictions or unnecessarily defer correct ones. However, calibration mainly aligns confidence with average correctness, and does not remove predicted-label-dependent reliability differences that remain within the same calibrated confidence level. We address this gap with Label-wise Monotone Reliability Projection (MRP), which learns label-wise monotone functions that map calibrated confidence to correctness reliability while preserving the original predicted labels and class probabilities. The resulting reliability score reranks fixed predictions according to residual risk. Across six information access relevance datasets and multiple post-hoc calibrators, MRP improves reliability reranking and average fallback utility while preserving full-coverage accuracy and ECE. Structural ablations show that the main gains come from label-wise residual reliability rather than from global confidence remapping. We further analyze when MRP reliability scores can be embedded back into top-label probability geometry, showing that this projection is useful as a compatibility analysis but is distinct from the main reliability-reranking objective. The implementation will be made publicly available.

Do Generative Models Keep Time? A Time-Aware Evaluation of Synthetic Sequential Tabular Data

Synthetic sequential tabular data are increasingly used for privacy-preserving data sharing, yet a generator can reproduce every marginal and every foreign-key relationship while emitting timestamps that run backwards or repeat, and while sending entities along paths that no real entity followed. Conventional tabular evaluation, which pools records into static distributions, is blind to such failures. We present a taxonomy-guided evaluation protocol for temporal fidelity, in which the applicable measurements are determined by the data rather than fixed in advance. Each dataset is first characterized along four properties: how time is represented, whether observations are regularly sampled, whether trajectories are mutually dependent, and how the schema links entities to their histories. These properties determine which evaluation dimensions are meaningful. The protocol then measures timestamp validity, cross-sectional structure at aligned time points, within-entity dynamics, and time-varying relational structure, and recasts utility and privacy evaluation over trajectories rather than isolated rows. We apply the protocol to eight generative models across thirteen datasets spanning six domains. Rankings under conventional evaluation disagree substantially with those obtained under temporal evaluation, and the resulting failures are architecture-coherent rather than random. Temporal fidelity must therefore be measured on the time axis itself, rather than inferred from pooled record distributions.

Decision-focused Sparse Tangent Portfolio Optimization

Sparse tangent portfolio optimization aims to learn an interpretable, low-cardinality portfolio in the tangency direction of the mean-variance frontier. However, the associated cardinality-constrained formulation is NP-hard, and standard predict-then-optimize pipelines often misalign forecasting accuracy with downstream portfolio quality. We propose an end-to-end decision-focused learning framework that reformulates Sharpe ratio maximization as a Disciplined Parametrized Programming (DPP)-compliant convex programming layer and replaces discrete selection with a smooth top-$k$ operator enforcing an exact cardinality $k$. This enables gradient flow through prediction, asset selection, and re-optimization, allowing the predictive model to directly optimize portfolio performance. Across four major equity markets, our method achieves competitive and often superior out-of-sample Sharpe ratios compared with historical and prediction-focused baselines, with particularly strong gains in larger asset universes. Our \href{https://github.com/feuerwerksh/Diffble-card-SR}{code} is publicly available.

Fund2Persona: A Framework for Building and Refining Financial Advisor Personas from Fund Disclosure Data

Demand for personalized financial advising is growing, but consistent advisor expertise is difficult to obtain, scale, and encode in LLM systems. Simple persona prompts rarely specify how a financial advisor should reason and often drift toward generic recommendations. We propose Fund2Persona, a framework that grounds financial-advisor personas in fund disclosures, holdings transitions, market context, and manager commentary, then refines them through an agentic actor--scorer--patcher loop. We evaluate the resulting personas on held-out holdings-transition reconstruction and manager-commentary alignment, where they better recover portfolio decisions and grounded manager interpretation than generic baselines. We further study two downstream diagnostics: market-scenario generation, where persona retrieval broadens plausible investment views beyond repeated generic rollouts, and advisory dialogues grounded in investor profiles, where matched personas give more specific and useful advice than a generic advisor. These results suggest that fund-data-grounded financial-advisor personas can make manager-specific investment expertise portable rather than merely changing an LLM's surface style.

When Summaries Distort Decisions: Information Fidelity in LLM-Compressed Financial Analysis

Financial decision-makers face more information than they can directly inspect, making context compression necessary. Yet when large language models (LLMs) compress financial source material, they can alter the investment judgment supported by the original source. We frame this problem as information fidelity: compression loses fidelity when it changes the decision induced by the source. In agentic systems, such losses may recur across intermediate steps and amplify throughout the decision process. Across financial filings and earnings-call transcripts, we find that LLM-based compression can produce fluent and factually plausible compressed contexts that nevertheless alter downstream decisions. We analyze two diagnostic patterns associated with fidelity loss: decontextualization, where salient evidence is retained but separated from the caveats and contextual qualifiers needed for correct interpretation, and model dependency, where different compressors expose different views of the same source. We then propose Agentic Context Compression, which generates multiple candidate compressions and audits their disagreements against the original source. Our results suggest that financial compression should be evaluated not only by efficiency or factuality, but also by its ability to preserve decision-relevant context.

PlanRL: A Trajectory Planning Architecture for Reinforcement Learning-based Driving Experts

Reinforcement learning (RL) has become a prominent framework for developing driving experts in autonomous vehicles. However, most existing RL-based experts are designed to output direct control commands (e.g., throttle, steering), which suffer from a lack of interpretability, high spatial complexity in learning road geometries, and poor compatibility with modern end-to-end planning architectures. To address these limitations, we propose a novel trajectory planning architecture for RL driving experts that integrates an RL policy with a polynomial-based trajectory planner. By employing a Frenet-frame coordinate system, our method simplifies complex road geometries into a curvilinear framework, offering a structured coordinate prior that facilitates policy learning. Furthermore, we incorporate a kinematic feasibility check into the planning stage to ensure that generated trajectories remain within the vehicle's physical limits, effectively mitigating cumulative tracking errors typically found in planning-based systems. We evaluate our approach on key CARLA benchmarks, where it significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art control-based RL experts. On the CARLA Offline Leaderboard v1 and NoCrash benchmarks, our method improves the driving score by 5% and 11%, respectively, and increases the success rate by 8% and 19%.

FinTexTS: Financial Text-Paired Time-Series Dataset via Semantic-Based and Multi-Level Pairing

The financial domain involves a variety of important time-series problems. Recently, time-series analysis methods that jointly leverage textual and numerical information have gained increasing attention. Accordingly, numerous efforts have been made to construct text-paired time-series datasets in the financial domain. However, financial markets are characterized by complex interdependencies, in which a company's stock price is influenced not only by company-specific events but also by events in other companies and broader macroeconomic factors. Existing approaches that pair text with financial time-series data based on simple keyword matching often fail to capture such complex relationships. To address this limitation, we propose a semantic-based and multi-level pairing framework. Specifically, we extract company-specific context for the target company from SEC filings and apply an embedding-based matching mechanism to retrieve semantically relevant news articles based on this context. Furthermore, we classify news articles into four levels (macro-level, sector-level, related company-level, and target-company level) using large language models (LLMs), enabling multi-level pairing of news articles with the target company. Applying this framework to publicly-available news datasets, we construct \textbf{FinTexTS}, a new large-scale text-paired stock price dataset. Experimental results on \textbf{FinTexTS} demonstrate the effectiveness of our semantic-based and multi-level pairing strategy in stock price forecasting. In addition to publicly-available news underlying \textbf{FinTexTS}, we show that applying our method to proprietary yet carefully curated news sources leads to higher-quality paired data and improved stock price forecasting performance.

Evaluating LLMs in Finance Requires Explicit Bias Consideration

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into financial workflows, but evaluation practice has not kept up. Finance-specific biases can inflate performance, contaminate backtests, and make reported results useless for any deployment claim. We identify five recurring biases in financial LLM applications. They include look-ahead bias, survivorship bias, narrative bias, objective bias, and cost bias. These biases break financial tasks in distinct ways and they often compound to create an illusion of validity. We reviewed 164 papers from 2023 to 2025 and found that no single bias is discussed in more than 28 percent of studies. This position paper argues that bias in financial LLM systems requires explicit attention and that structural validity should be enforced before any result is used to support a deployment claim. We propose a Structural Validity Framework and an evaluation checklist with minimal requirements for bias diagnosis and future system design. The material is available at https://github.com/Eleanorkong/Awesome-Financial-LLM-Bias-Mitigation.

Cross-Sectional Asset Retrieval via Future-Aligned Soft Contrastive Learning

Asset retrieval--finding similar assets in a financial universe--is central to quantitative investment decision-making. Existing approaches define similarity through historical price patterns or sector classifications, but such backward-looking criteria provide no guarantee about future behavior. We argue that effective asset retrieval should be future-aligned: the retrieved assets should be those most likely to exhibit correlated future returns. To this end, we propose Future-Aligned Soft Contrastive Learning (FASCL), a representation learning framework whose soft contrastive loss uses pairwise future return correlations as continuous supervision targets. We further introduce an evaluation protocol designed to directly assess whether retrieved assets share similar future trajectories. Experiments on 4,229 US equities demonstrate that FASCL consistently outperforms 13 baselines across all future-behavior metrics. The source code will be available soon.