Abstract:Sparse tangent portfolio optimization aims to learn an interpretable, low-cardinality portfolio in the tangency direction of the mean-variance frontier. However, the associated cardinality-constrained formulation is NP-hard, and standard predict-then-optimize pipelines often misalign forecasting accuracy with downstream portfolio quality. We propose an end-to-end decision-focused learning framework that reformulates Sharpe ratio maximization as a Disciplined Parametrized Programming (DPP)-compliant convex programming layer and replaces discrete selection with a smooth top-$k$ operator enforcing an exact cardinality $k$. This enables gradient flow through prediction, asset selection, and re-optimization, allowing the predictive model to directly optimize portfolio performance. Across four major equity markets, our method achieves competitive and often superior out-of-sample Sharpe ratios compared with historical and prediction-focused baselines, with particularly strong gains in larger asset universes. Our \href{https://github.com/feuerwerksh/Diffble-card-SR}{code} is publicly available.
Abstract:Demand for personalized financial advising is growing, but consistent advisor expertise is difficult to obtain, scale, and encode in LLM systems. Simple persona prompts rarely specify how a financial advisor should reason and often drift toward generic recommendations. We propose Fund2Persona, a framework that grounds financial-advisor personas in fund disclosures, holdings transitions, market context, and manager commentary, then refines them through an agentic actor--scorer--patcher loop. We evaluate the resulting personas on held-out holdings-transition reconstruction and manager-commentary alignment, where they better recover portfolio decisions and grounded manager interpretation than generic baselines. We further study two downstream diagnostics: market-scenario generation, where persona retrieval broadens plausible investment views beyond repeated generic rollouts, and advisory dialogues grounded in investor profiles, where matched personas give more specific and useful advice than a generic advisor. These results suggest that fund-data-grounded financial-advisor personas can make manager-specific investment expertise portable rather than merely changing an LLM's surface style.
Abstract:Financial decision-makers face more information than they can directly inspect, making context compression necessary. Yet when large language models (LLMs) compress financial source material, they can alter the investment judgment supported by the original source. We frame this problem as information fidelity: compression loses fidelity when it changes the decision induced by the source. In agentic systems, such losses may recur across intermediate steps and amplify throughout the decision process. Across financial filings and earnings-call transcripts, we find that LLM-based compression can produce fluent and factually plausible compressed contexts that nevertheless alter downstream decisions. We analyze two diagnostic patterns associated with fidelity loss: decontextualization, where salient evidence is retained but separated from the caveats and contextual qualifiers needed for correct interpretation, and model dependency, where different compressors expose different views of the same source. We then propose Agentic Context Compression, which generates multiple candidate compressions and audits their disagreements against the original source. Our results suggest that financial compression should be evaluated not only by efficiency or factuality, but also by its ability to preserve decision-relevant context.
Abstract:Reinforcement learning (RL) has become a prominent framework for developing driving experts in autonomous vehicles. However, most existing RL-based experts are designed to output direct control commands (e.g., throttle, steering), which suffer from a lack of interpretability, high spatial complexity in learning road geometries, and poor compatibility with modern end-to-end planning architectures. To address these limitations, we propose a novel trajectory planning architecture for RL driving experts that integrates an RL policy with a polynomial-based trajectory planner. By employing a Frenet-frame coordinate system, our method simplifies complex road geometries into a curvilinear framework, offering a structured coordinate prior that facilitates policy learning. Furthermore, we incorporate a kinematic feasibility check into the planning stage to ensure that generated trajectories remain within the vehicle's physical limits, effectively mitigating cumulative tracking errors typically found in planning-based systems. We evaluate our approach on key CARLA benchmarks, where it significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art control-based RL experts. On the CARLA Offline Leaderboard v1 and NoCrash benchmarks, our method improves the driving score by 5% and 11%, respectively, and increases the success rate by 8% and 19%.
Abstract:The financial domain involves a variety of important time-series problems. Recently, time-series analysis methods that jointly leverage textual and numerical information have gained increasing attention. Accordingly, numerous efforts have been made to construct text-paired time-series datasets in the financial domain. However, financial markets are characterized by complex interdependencies, in which a company's stock price is influenced not only by company-specific events but also by events in other companies and broader macroeconomic factors. Existing approaches that pair text with financial time-series data based on simple keyword matching often fail to capture such complex relationships. To address this limitation, we propose a semantic-based and multi-level pairing framework. Specifically, we extract company-specific context for the target company from SEC filings and apply an embedding-based matching mechanism to retrieve semantically relevant news articles based on this context. Furthermore, we classify news articles into four levels (macro-level, sector-level, related company-level, and target-company level) using large language models (LLMs), enabling multi-level pairing of news articles with the target company. Applying this framework to publicly-available news datasets, we construct \textbf{FinTexTS}, a new large-scale text-paired stock price dataset. Experimental results on \textbf{FinTexTS} demonstrate the effectiveness of our semantic-based and multi-level pairing strategy in stock price forecasting. In addition to publicly-available news underlying \textbf{FinTexTS}, we show that applying our method to proprietary yet carefully curated news sources leads to higher-quality paired data and improved stock price forecasting performance.
Abstract:Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into financial workflows, but evaluation practice has not kept up. Finance-specific biases can inflate performance, contaminate backtests, and make reported results useless for any deployment claim. We identify five recurring biases in financial LLM applications. They include look-ahead bias, survivorship bias, narrative bias, objective bias, and cost bias. These biases break financial tasks in distinct ways and they often compound to create an illusion of validity. We reviewed 164 papers from 2023 to 2025 and found that no single bias is discussed in more than 28 percent of studies. This position paper argues that bias in financial LLM systems requires explicit attention and that structural validity should be enforced before any result is used to support a deployment claim. We propose a Structural Validity Framework and an evaluation checklist with minimal requirements for bias diagnosis and future system design. The material is available at https://github.com/Eleanorkong/Awesome-Financial-LLM-Bias-Mitigation.
Abstract:Asset retrieval--finding similar assets in a financial universe--is central to quantitative investment decision-making. Existing approaches define similarity through historical price patterns or sector classifications, but such backward-looking criteria provide no guarantee about future behavior. We argue that effective asset retrieval should be future-aligned: the retrieved assets should be those most likely to exhibit correlated future returns. To this end, we propose Future-Aligned Soft Contrastive Learning (FASCL), a representation learning framework whose soft contrastive loss uses pairwise future return correlations as continuous supervision targets. We further introduce an evaluation protocol designed to directly assess whether retrieved assets share similar future trajectories. Experiments on 4,229 US equities demonstrate that FASCL consistently outperforms 13 baselines across all future-behavior metrics. The source code will be available soon.
Abstract:Accurately predicting procurement lead time (PLT) remains a challenge in engineered-to-order industries such as shipbuilding and plant construction, where delays in a single key component can disrupt project timelines. In shipyards, pipe spools are critical components; installed deep within hull blocks soon after steel erection, any delay in their procurement can halt all downstream tasks. Recognizing their importance, existing studies predict PLT using the static physical attributes of pipe spools. However, procurement is inherently a dynamic, multi-stakeholder business process involving a continuous sequence of internal and external events at the shipyard, factors often overlooked in traditional approaches. To address this issue, this paper proposes a novel framework that combines event logs, dataset records of the procurement events, with static attributes to predict PLT. The temporal attributes of each event are extracted to reflect the continuity and temporal context of the process. Subsequently, a deep sequential neural network combined with a multi-layered perceptron is employed to integrate these static and dynamic features, enabling the model to capture both structural and contextual information in procurement. Comparative experiments are conducted using real-world pipe spool procurement data from a globally renowned South Korean shipbuilding corporation. Three tasks are evaluated, which are production, post-processing, and procurement lead time prediction. The results show a 22.6% to 50.4% improvement in prediction performance in terms of mean absolute error over the best-performing existing approaches across the three tasks. These findings indicate the value of considering procurement process information for more accurate PLT prediction.
Abstract:This study demonstrates that GuruAgents, prompt-guided AI agents, can systematically operationalize the strategies of legendary investment gurus. We develop five distinct GuruAgents, each designed to emulate an iconic investor, by encoding their distinct philosophies into LLM prompts that integrate financial tools and a deterministic reasoning pipeline. In a backtest on NASDAQ-100 constituents from Q4 2023 to Q2 2025, the GuruAgents exhibit unique behaviors driven by their prompted personas. The Buffett GuruAgent achieves the highest performance, delivering a 42.2\% CAGR that significantly outperforms benchmarks, while other agents show varied results. These findings confirm that prompt engineering can successfully translate the qualitative philosophies of investment gurus into reproducible, quantitative strategies, highlighting a novel direction for automated systematic investing. The source code and data are available at https://github.com/yejining99/GuruAgents.
Abstract:Decision-making under uncertainty is often considered in two stages: predicting the unknown parameters, and then optimizing decisions based on predictions. While traditional prediction-focused learning (PFL) treats these two stages separately, decision-focused learning (DFL) trains the predictive model by directly optimizing the decision quality in an end-to-end manner. However, despite using exact or well-approximated gradients, vanilla DFL often suffers from unstable convergence due to its flat-and-sharp loss landscapes. In contrast, PFL yields more stable optimization, but overlooks the downstream decision quality. To address this, we propose a simple yet effective approach: perturbing the decision loss gradient using the prediction loss gradient to construct an update direction. Our method requires no additional training and can be integrated with any DFL solvers. Using the sigmoid-like decaying parameter, we let the prediction loss gradient guide the decision loss gradient to train a predictive model that optimizes decision quality. Also, we provide a theoretical convergence guarantee to Pareto stationary point under mild assumptions. Empirically, we demonstrate our method across three stochastic optimization problems, showing promising results compared to other baselines. We validate that our approach achieves lower regret with more stable training, even in situations where either PFL or DFL struggles.