Mitigating Label Shift in Tabular In-Context Learning via Test-Time Posterior Adjustment

TabPFN has recently gained attention as a foundation model for tabular datasets, achieving strong performance by leveraging in-context learning on synthetic data. However, we find that TabPFN is vulnerable to label shift, often overfitting to the majority class in the training dataset. To address this limitation, we propose DistPFN, the first test-time posterior adjustment method designed for tabular foundation models. DistPFN rescales predicted class probabilities by downweighting the influence of the training prior (i.e., the class distribution of the context) and emphasizing the contribution of the model's predicted posterior, without architectural modification or additional training. We further introduce DistPFN-T, which incorporates temperature scaling to adaptively control the adjustment strength based on the discrepancy between prior and posterior. We evaluate our methods on over 250 OpenML datasets, demonstrating substantial improvements for various TabPFN-based models in classification tasks under label shift, while maintaining strong performance in standard settings without label shift. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/seunghan96/DistPFN.

FinSTaR: Towards Financial Reasoning with Time Series Reasoning Models

Time series (TS) reasoning models (TSRMs) have shown promising capabilities in general domains, yet they consistently fail on financial domain, which exhibit unique characteristics. We propose a general 2x2 capability taxonomy for TSRMs by crossing 1) single-entity vs. multi-entity analysis with 2) assessment of the current state vs. prediction of future behavior. We instantiate this taxonomy in the financial domain -- where the distinction between deterministic assessment and stochastic prediction is particularly critical -- as ten financial reasoning tasks, forming the FinTSR-Bench benchmark based on S&P stocks. To this end, we propose FinSTaR (Financial Time Series Thinking and Reasoning), trained on FinTSR-Bench with distinct chain-of-thought (CoT) strategies tailored to each category. For assessment, which is deterministic (i.e., computable from observable data), we employ Compute-in-CoT, a programmatic CoT that enables models to derive answers directly from raw prices. For prediction, which is inherently stochastic (i.e., subject to unobservable factors), we adopt Scenario-Aware CoT, which generates diverse scenarios before making a judgment, mirroring how financial analysts reason under uncertainty. The proposed method achieves 78.9% average accuracy on FinTSR-Bench, substantially outperforming LLM and TSRM baselines. Furthermore, we show that the four capability categories are complementary and mutually reinforcing through joint training, and that Scenario-Aware CoT consistently improves prediction accuracy over standard CoT. Code is publicly available at: https://github.com/seunghan96/FinSTaR.

ReFEree: Reference-Free and Fine-Grained Method for Evaluating Factual Consistency in Real-World Code Summarization

As Large Language Models (LLMs) have become capable of generating long and descriptive code summaries, accurate and reliable evaluation of factual consistency has become a critical challenge. However, previous evaluation methods are primarily designed for short summaries of isolated code snippets. Consequently, they struggle to provide fine-grained evaluation of multi-sentence functionalities and fail to accurately assess dependency context commonly found in real-world code summaries. To address this, we propose ReFEree, a reference-free and fine-grained method for evaluating factual consistency in real-world code summaries. We define factual inconsistency criteria specific to code summaries and evaluate them at the segment level using these criteria along with dependency information. These segment-level results are then aggregated into a fine-grained score. We construct a code summarization benchmark with human-annotated factual consistency labels. The evaluation results demonstrate that ReFEree achieves the highest correlation with human judgment among 13 baselines, improving 15-18% over the previous state-of-the-art. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/bsy99615/ReFEree.git.

HeSS: Head Sensitivity Score for Sparsity Redistribution in VGGT

Visual Geometry Grounded Transformer (VGGT) has advanced 3D vision, yet its global attention layers suffer from quadratic computational costs that hinder scalability. Several sparsification-based acceleration techniques have been proposed to alleviate this issue, but they often suffer from substantial accuracy degradation. We hypothesize that the accuracy degradation stems from the heterogeneity in head-wise sparsification sensitivity, as the existing methods apply a uniform sparsity pattern across all heads. Motivated by this hypothesis, we present a two-stage sparsification pipeline that effectively quantifies and exploits headwise sparsification sensitivity. In the first stage, we measure head-wise sparsification sensitivity using a novel metric, the Head Sensitivity Score (HeSS), which approximates the Hessian with respect to two distinct error terms on a small calibration set. In the inference stage, we perform HeSS-Guided Sparsification, leveraging the pre-computed HeSS to reallocate the total attention budget-assigning denser attention to sensitive heads and sparser attention to more robust ones. We demonstrate that HeSS effectively captures head-wise sparsification sensitivity and empirically confirm that attention heads in the global attention layers exhibit heterogeneous sensitivity characteristics. Extensive experiments further show that our method effectively mitigates performance degradation under high sparsity, demonstrating strong robustness across varying sparsification levels. Code is available at https://github.com/libary753/HeSS.

Rethinking Multimodal Fusion for Time Series: Auxiliary Modalities Need Constrained Fusion

Recent advances in multimodal learning have motivated the integration of auxiliary modalities such as text or vision into time series (TS) forecasting. However, most existing methods provide limited gains, often improving performance only in specific datasets or relying on architecture-specific designs that limit generalization. In this paper, we show that multimodal models with naive fusion strategies (e.g., simple addition or concatenation) often underperform unimodal TS models, which we attribute to the uncontrolled integration of auxiliary modalities which may introduce irrelevant information. Motivated by this observation, we explore various constrained fusion methods designed to control such integration and find that they consistently outperform naive fusion methods. Furthermore, we propose Controlled Fusion Adapter (CFA), a simple plug-in method that enables controlled cross-modal interactions without modifying the TS backbone, integrating only relevant textual information aligned with TS dynamics. CFA employs low-rank adapters to filter irrelevant textual information before fusing it into temporal representations. We conduct over 20K experiments across various datasets and TS/text models, demonstrating the effectiveness of the constrained fusion methods including CFA. Code is publicly available at: https://github.com/seunghan96/cfa/.

Balancing Saliency and Coverage: Semantic Prominence-Aware Budgeting for Visual Token Compression in VLMs

Large Vision-Language Models (VLMs) achieve strong multimodal understanding capabilities by leveraging high-resolution visual inputs, but the resulting large number of visual tokens creates a major computational bottleneck. Recent work mitigates this issue through visual token compression, typically compressing tokens based on saliency, diversity, or a fixed combination of both. We observe that the distribution of semantic prominence varies substantially across samples, leading to different optimal trade-offs between local saliency preservation and global coverage. This observation suggests that applying a static compression strategy across all samples can be suboptimal. Motivated by this insight, we propose PromPrune, a sample-adaptive visual token selection framework composed of semantic prominence-aware budget allocation and a two-stage selection pipeline. Our method adaptively balances local saliency preservation and global coverage according to the semantic prominence distribution of each sample. By allocating token budgets between locally salient regions and globally diverse regions, our method maintains strong performance even under high compression ratios. On LLaVA-NeXT-7B, our approach reduces FLOPs by 88% and prefill latency by 22% while preserving 97.5% of the original accuracy.

Cross-RAG: Zero-Shot Retrieval-Augmented Time Series Forecasting via Cross-Attention

Recent advances in time series foundation models (TSFMs) demonstrate strong expressive capacity through large-scale pretraining across diverse time series domains. Zero-shot time series forecasting with TSFMs, however, exhibits limited generalization to unseen datasets, which retrieval-augmented forecasting addresses by leveraging an external knowledge base. Existing approaches rely on a fixed number of retrieved samples that may introduce irrelevant information. To this end, we propose Cross-RAG, a zero-shot retrieval-augmented forecasting framework that selectively attends to query-relevant retrieved samples. Cross-RAG models input-level relevance between the query and retrieved samples via query-retrieval cross-attention, while jointly incorporating information from the query and retrieved samples. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Cross-RAG consistently improves zero-shot forecasting performance across various TSFMs and RAG methods, and additional analyses confirm its effectiveness across diverse retrieval scenarios. Code is available at https://github.com/seunghan96/cross-rag/.

FinTexTS: Financial Text-Paired Time-Series Dataset via Semantic-Based and Multi-Level Pairing

The financial domain involves a variety of important time-series problems. Recently, time-series analysis methods that jointly leverage textual and numerical information have gained increasing attention. Accordingly, numerous efforts have been made to construct text-paired time-series datasets in the financial domain. However, financial markets are characterized by complex interdependencies, in which a company's stock price is influenced not only by company-specific events but also by events in other companies and broader macroeconomic factors. Existing approaches that pair text with financial time-series data based on simple keyword matching often fail to capture such complex relationships. To address this limitation, we propose a semantic-based and multi-level pairing framework. Specifically, we extract company-specific context for the target company from SEC filings and apply an embedding-based matching mechanism to retrieve semantically relevant news articles based on this context. Furthermore, we classify news articles into four levels (macro-level, sector-level, related company-level, and target-company level) using large language models (LLMs), enabling multi-level pairing of news articles with the target company. Applying this framework to publicly-available news datasets, we construct \textbf{FinTexTS}, a new large-scale text-paired stock price dataset. Experimental results on \textbf{FinTexTS} demonstrate the effectiveness of our semantic-based and multi-level pairing strategy in stock price forecasting. In addition to publicly-available news underlying \textbf{FinTexTS}, we show that applying our method to proprietary yet carefully curated news sources leads to higher-quality paired data and improved stock price forecasting performance.

FEATHer: Fourier-Efficient Adaptive Temporal Hierarchy Forecaster for Time-Series Forecasting

Time-series forecasting is fundamental in industrial domains like manufacturing and smart factories. As systems evolve toward automation, models must operate on edge devices (e.g., PLCs, microcontrollers) with strict constraints on latency and memory, limiting parameters to a few thousand. Conventional deep architectures are often impractical here. We propose the Fourier-Efficient Adaptive Temporal Hierarchy Forecaster (FEATHer) for accurate long-term forecasting under severe limits. FEATHer introduces: (i) ultra-lightweight multiscale decomposition into frequency pathways; (ii) a shared Dense Temporal Kernel using projection-depthwise convolution-projection without recurrence or attention; (iii) frequency-aware branch gating that adaptively fuses representations based on spectral characteristics; and (iv) a Sparse Period Kernel reconstructing outputs via period-wise downsampling to capture seasonality. FEATHer maintains a compact architecture (as few as 400 parameters) while outperforming baselines. Across eight benchmarks, it achieves the best ranking, recording 60 first-place results with an average rank of 2.05. These results demonstrate that reliable long-range forecasting is achievable on constrained edge hardware, offering a practical direction for industrial real-time inference.

Adaptive Information Routing for Multimodal Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting is a critical task for artificial intelligence with numerous real-world applications. Traditional approaches primarily rely on historical time series data to predict the future values. However, in practical scenarios, this is often insufficient for accurate predictions due to the limited information available. To address this challenge, multimodal time series forecasting methods which incorporate additional data modalities, mainly text data, alongside time series data have been explored. In this work, we introduce the Adaptive Information Routing (AIR) framework, a novel approach for multimodal time series forecasting. Unlike existing methods that treat text data on par with time series data as interchangeable auxiliary features for forecasting, AIR leverages text information to dynamically guide the time series model by controlling how and to what extent multivariate time series information should be combined. We also present a text-refinement pipeline that employs a large language model to convert raw text data into a form suitable for multimodal forecasting, and we introduce a benchmark that facilitates multimodal forecasting experiments based on this pipeline. Experiment results with the real world market data such as crude oil price and exchange rates demonstrate that AIR effectively modulates the behavior of the time series model using textual inputs, significantly enhancing forecasting accuracy in various time series forecasting tasks.