Novel Node Category Detection Under Subpopulation Shift

In real-world graph data, distribution shifts can manifest in various ways, such as the emergence of new categories and changes in the relative proportions of existing categories. It is often important to detect nodes of novel categories under such distribution shifts for safety or insight discovery purposes. We introduce a new approach, Recall-Constrained Optimization with Selective Link Prediction (RECO-SLIP), to detect nodes belonging to novel categories in attributed graphs under subpopulation shifts. By integrating a recall-constrained learning framework with a sample-efficient link prediction mechanism, RECO-SLIP addresses the dual challenges of resilience against subpopulation shifts and the effective exploitation of graph structure. Our extensive empirical evaluation across multiple graph datasets demonstrates the superior performance of RECO-SLIP over existing methods.

Causal-structure Driven Augmentations for Text OOD Generalization

The reliance of text classifiers on spurious correlations can lead to poor generalization at deployment, raising concerns about their use in safety-critical domains such as healthcare. In this work, we propose to use counterfactual data augmentation, guided by knowledge of the causal structure of the data, to simulate interventions on spurious features and to learn more robust text classifiers. We show that this strategy is appropriate in prediction problems where the label is spuriously correlated with an attribute. Under the assumptions of such problems, we discuss the favorable sample complexity of counterfactual data augmentation, compared to importance re-weighting. Pragmatically, we match examples using auxiliary data, based on diff-in-diff methodology, and use a large language model (LLM) to represent a conditional probability of text. Through extensive experimentation on learning caregiver-invariant predictors of clinical diagnoses from medical narratives and on semi-synthetic data, we demonstrate that our method for simulating interventions improves out-of-distribution (OOD) accuracy compared to baseline invariant learning algorithms.

Don't blame Dataset Shift! Shortcut Learning due to Gradients and Cross Entropy

Common explanations for shortcut learning assume that the shortcut improves prediction under the training distribution but not in the test distribution. Thus, models trained via the typical gradient-based optimization of cross-entropy, which we call default-ERM, utilize the shortcut. However, even when the stable feature determines the label in the training distribution and the shortcut does not provide any additional information, like in perception tasks, default-ERM still exhibits shortcut learning. Why are such solutions preferred when the loss for default-ERM can be driven to zero using the stable feature alone? By studying a linear perception task, we show that default-ERM's preference for maximizing the margin leads to models that depend more on the shortcut than the stable feature, even without overparameterization. This insight suggests that default-ERM's implicit inductive bias towards max-margin is unsuitable for perception tasks. Instead, we develop an inductive bias toward uniform margins and show that this bias guarantees dependence only on the perfect stable feature in the linear perception task. We develop loss functions that encourage uniform-margin solutions, called margin control (MARG-CTRL). MARG-CTRL mitigates shortcut learning on a variety of vision and language tasks, showing that better inductive biases can remove the need for expensive two-stage shortcut-mitigating methods in perception tasks.

Malign Overfitting: Interpolation Can Provably Preclude Invariance

Learned classifiers should often possess certain invariance properties meant to encourage fairness, robustness, or out-of-distribution generalization. However, multiple recent works empirically demonstrate that common invariance-inducing regularizers are ineffective in the over-parameterized regime, in which classifiers perfectly fit (i.e. interpolate) the training data. This suggests that the phenomenon of ``benign overfitting," in which models generalize well despite interpolating, might not favorably extend to settings in which robustness or fairness are desirable. In this work we provide a theoretical justification for these observations. We prove that -- even in the simplest of settings -- any interpolating learning rule (with arbitrarily small margin) will not satisfy these invariance properties. We then propose and analyze an algorithm that -- in the same setting -- successfully learns a non-interpolating classifier that is provably invariant. We validate our theoretical observations on simulated data and the Waterbirds dataset.

In the Eye of the Beholder: Robust Prediction with Causal User Modeling

Accurately predicting the relevance of items to users is crucial to the success of many social platforms. Conventional approaches train models on logged historical data; but recommendation systems, media services, and online marketplaces all exhibit a constant influx of new content -- making relevancy a moving target, to which standard predictive models are not robust. In this paper, we propose a learning framework for relevance prediction that is robust to changes in the data distribution. Our key observation is that robustness can be obtained by accounting for how users causally perceive the environment. We model users as boundedly-rational decision makers whose causal beliefs are encoded by a causal graph, and show how minimal information regarding the graph can be used to contend with distributional changes. Experiments in multiple settings demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

Explaining in Style: Training a GAN to explain a classifier in StyleSpace

Image classification models can depend on multiple different semantic attributes of the image. An explanation of the decision of the classifier needs to both discover and visualize these properties. Here we present StylEx, a method for doing this, by training a generative model to specifically explain multiple attributes that underlie classifier decisions. A natural source for such attributes is the StyleSpace of StyleGAN, which is known to generate semantically meaningful dimensions in the image. However, because standard GAN training is not dependent on the classifier, it may not represent these attributes which are important for the classifier decision, and the dimensions of StyleSpace may represent irrelevant attributes. To overcome this, we propose a training procedure for a StyleGAN, which incorporates the classifier model, in order to learn a classifier-specific StyleSpace. Explanatory attributes are then selected from this space. These can be used to visualize the effect of changing multiple attributes per image, thus providing image-specific explanations. We apply StylEx to multiple domains, including animals, leaves, faces and retinal images. For these, we show how an image can be modified in different ways to change its classifier output. Our results show that the method finds attributes that align well with semantic ones, generate meaningful image-specific explanations, and are human-interpretable as measured in user-studies.

On Calibration and Out-of-domain Generalization

Out-of-domain (OOD) generalization is a significant challenge for machine learning models. To overcome it, many novel techniques have been proposed, often focused on learning models with certain invariance properties. In this work, we draw a link between OOD performance and model calibration, arguing that calibration across multiple domains can be viewed as a special case of an invariant representation leading to better OOD generalization. Specifically, we prove in a simplified setting that models which achieve multi-domain calibration are free of spurious correlations. This leads us to propose multi-domain calibration as a measurable surrogate for the OOD performance of a classifier. An important practical benefit of calibration is that there are many effective tools for calibrating classifiers. We show that these tools are easy to apply and adapt for a multi-domain setting. Using five datasets from the recently proposed WILDS OOD benchmark we demonstrate that simply re-calibrating models across multiple domains in a validation set leads to significantly improved performance on unseen test domains. We believe this intriguing connection between calibration and OOD generalization is promising from a practical point of view and deserves further research from a theoretical point of view.

Robust Conditional Probabilities

Conditional probabilities are a core concept in machine learning. For example, optimal prediction of a label $Y$ given an input $X$ corresponds to maximizing the conditional probability of $Y$ given $X$. A common approach to inference tasks is learning a model of conditional probabilities. However, these models are often based on strong assumptions (e.g., log-linear models), and hence their estimate of conditional probabilities is not robust and is highly dependent on the validity of their assumptions. Here we propose a framework for reasoning about conditional probabilities without assuming anything about the underlying distributions, except knowledge of their second order marginals, which can be estimated from data. We show how this setting leads to guaranteed bounds on conditional probabilities, which can be calculated efficiently in a variety of settings, including structured-prediction. Finally, we apply them to semi-supervised deep learning, obtaining results competitive with variational autoencoders.