Robust Anomaly Detection for Particle Physics Using Multi-Background Representation Learning

Anomaly, or out-of-distribution, detection is a promising tool for aiding discoveries of new particles or processes in particle physics. In this work, we identify and address two overlooked opportunities to improve anomaly detection for high-energy physics. First, rather than train a generative model on the single most dominant background process, we build detection algorithms using representation learning from multiple background types, thus taking advantage of more information to improve estimation of what is relevant for detection. Second, we generalize decorrelation to the multi-background setting, thus directly enforcing a more complete definition of robustness for anomaly detection. We demonstrate the benefit of the proposed robust multi-background anomaly detection algorithms on a high-dimensional dataset of particle decays at the Large Hadron Collider.

Don't blame Dataset Shift! Shortcut Learning due to Gradients and Cross Entropy

Common explanations for shortcut learning assume that the shortcut improves prediction under the training distribution but not in the test distribution. Thus, models trained via the typical gradient-based optimization of cross-entropy, which we call default-ERM, utilize the shortcut. However, even when the stable feature determines the label in the training distribution and the shortcut does not provide any additional information, like in perception tasks, default-ERM still exhibits shortcut learning. Why are such solutions preferred when the loss for default-ERM can be driven to zero using the stable feature alone? By studying a linear perception task, we show that default-ERM's preference for maximizing the margin leads to models that depend more on the shortcut than the stable feature, even without overparameterization. This insight suggests that default-ERM's implicit inductive bias towards max-margin is unsuitable for perception tasks. Instead, we develop an inductive bias toward uniform margins and show that this bias guarantees dependence only on the perfect stable feature in the linear perception task. We develop loss functions that encourage uniform-margin solutions, called margin control (MARG-CTRL). MARG-CTRL mitigates shortcut learning on a variety of vision and language tasks, showing that better inductive biases can remove the need for expensive two-stage shortcut-mitigating methods in perception tasks.

When More is Less: Incorporating Additional Datasets Can Hurt Performance By Introducing Spurious Correlations

In machine learning, incorporating more data is often seen as a reliable strategy for improving model performance; this work challenges that notion by demonstrating that the addition of external datasets in many cases can hurt the resulting model's performance. In a large-scale empirical study across combinations of four different open-source chest x-ray datasets and 9 different labels, we demonstrate that in 43% of settings, a model trained on data from two hospitals has poorer worst group accuracy over both hospitals than a model trained on just a single hospital's data. This surprising result occurs even though the added hospital makes the training distribution more similar to the test distribution. We explain that this phenomenon arises from the spurious correlation that emerges between the disease and hospital, due to hospital-specific image artifacts. We highlight the trade-off one encounters when training on multiple datasets, between the obvious benefit of additional data and insidious cost of the introduced spurious correlation. In some cases, balancing the dataset can remove the spurious correlation and improve performance, but it is not always an effective strategy. We contextualize our results within the literature on spurious correlations to help explain these outcomes. Our experiments underscore the importance of exercising caution when selecting training data for machine learning models, especially in settings where there is a risk of spurious correlations such as with medical imaging. The risks outlined highlight the need for careful data selection and model evaluation in future research and practice.

A dynamic risk score for early prediction of cardiogenic shock using machine learning

Myocardial infarction and heart failure are major cardiovascular diseases that affect millions of people in the US. The morbidity and mortality are highest among patients who develop cardiogenic shock. Early recognition of cardiogenic shock is critical. Prompt implementation of treatment measures can prevent the deleterious spiral of ischemia, low blood pressure, and reduced cardiac output due to cardiogenic shock. However, early identification of cardiogenic shock has been challenging due to human providers' inability to process the enormous amount of data in the cardiac intensive care unit (ICU) and lack of an effective risk stratification tool. We developed a deep learning-based risk stratification tool, called CShock, for patients admitted into the cardiac ICU with acute decompensated heart failure and/or myocardial infarction to predict onset of cardiogenic shock. To develop and validate CShock, we annotated cardiac ICU datasets with physician adjudicated outcomes. CShock achieved an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.820, which substantially outperformed CardShock (AUROC 0.519), a well-established risk score for cardiogenic shock prognosis. CShock was externally validated in an independent patient cohort and achieved an AUROC of 0.800, demonstrating its generalizability in other cardiac ICUs.

Nuisances via Negativa: Adjusting for Spurious Correlations via Data Augmentation

There exist features that are related to the label in the same way across different settings for that task; these are semantic features or semantics. Features with varying relationships to the label are nuisances. For example, in detecting cows from natural images, the shape of the head is a semantic and because images of cows often have grass backgrounds but only in certain settings, the background is a nuisance. Relationships between a nuisance and the label are unstable across settings and, consequently, models that exploit nuisance-label relationships face performance degradation when these relationships change. Direct knowledge of a nuisance helps build models that are robust to such changes, but knowledge of a nuisance requires extra annotations beyond the label and the covariates. In this paper, we develop an alternative way to produce robust models by data augmentation. These data augmentations corrupt semantic information to produce models that identify and adjust for where nuisances drive predictions. We study semantic corruptions in powering different robust-modeling methods for multiple out-of distribution (OOD) tasks like classifying waterbirds, natural language inference, and detecting Cardiomegaly in chest X-rays.

New-Onset Diabetes Assessment Using Artificial Intelligence-Enhanced Electrocardiography

Undiagnosed diabetes is present in 21.4% of adults with diabetes. Diabetes can remain asymptomatic and undetected due to limitations in screening rates. To address this issue, questionnaires, such as the American Diabetes Association (ADA) Risk test, have been recommended for use by physicians and the public. Based on evidence that blood glucose concentration can affect cardiac electrophysiology, we hypothesized that an artificial intelligence (AI)-enhanced electrocardiogram (ECG) could identify adults with new-onset diabetes. We trained a neural network to estimate HbA1c using a 12-lead ECG and readily available demographics. We retrospectively assembled a dataset comprised of patients with paired ECG and HbA1c data. The population of patients who receive both an ECG and HbA1c may a biased sample of the complete outpatient population, so we adjusted the importance placed on each patient to generate a more representative pseudo-population. We found ECG-based assessment outperforms the ADA Risk test, achieving a higher area under the curve (0.80 vs. 0.68) and positive predictive value (14% vs. 9%) -- 2.6 times the prevalence of diabetes in the cohort. The AI-enhanced ECG significantly outperforms electrophysiologist interpretation of the ECG, suggesting that the task is beyond current clinical capabilities. Given the prevalence of ECGs in clinics and via wearable devices, such a tool would make precise, automated diabetes assessment widely accessible.

Learning Invariant Representations with Missing Data

Spurious correlations allow flexible models to predict well during training but poorly on related test populations. Recent work has shown that models that satisfy particular independencies involving correlation-inducing \textit{nuisance} variables have guarantees on their test performance. Enforcing such independencies requires nuisances to be observed during training. However, nuisances, such as demographics or image background labels, are often missing. Enforcing independence on just the observed data does not imply independence on the entire population. Here we derive \acrshort{mmd} estimators used for invariance objectives under missing nuisances. On simulations and clinical data, optimizing through these estimates achieves test performance similar to using estimators that make use of the full data.

Inverse-Weighted Survival Games

Deep models trained through maximum likelihood have achieved state-of-the-art results for survival analysis. Despite this training scheme, practitioners evaluate models under other criteria, such as binary classification losses at a chosen set of time horizons, e.g. Brier score (BS) and Bernoulli log likelihood (BLL). Models trained with maximum likelihood may have poor BS or BLL since maximum likelihood does not directly optimize these criteria. Directly optimizing criteria like BS requires inverse-weighting by the censoring distribution, estimation of which itself also requires inverse-weighted by the failure distribution. But neither are known. To resolve this dilemma, we introduce Inverse-Weighted Survival Games to train both failure and censoring models with respect to criteria such as BS or BLL. In these games, objectives for each model are built from re-weighted estimates featuring the other model, where the re-weighting model is held fixed during training. When the loss is proper, we show that the games always have the true failure and censoring distributions as a stationary point. This means models in the game do not leave the correct distributions once reached. We construct one case where this stationary point is unique. We show that these games optimize BS on simulations and then apply these principles on real world cancer and critically-ill patient data.

Predictive Modeling in the Presence of Nuisance-Induced Spurious Correlations

Deep predictive models often make use of spurious correlations between the label and the covariates that differ between training and test distributions. In many classification tasks, spurious correlations are induced by a changing relationship between the label and some nuisance variables correlated with the covariates. For example, in classifying animals in natural images, the background, which is the nuisance, can predict the type of animal. This nuisance-label relationship does not always hold. We formalize a family of distributions that only differ in the nuisance-label relationship and introduce a distribution where this relationship is broken called the nuisance-randomized distribution. We introduce a set of predictive models built from the nuisance-randomized distribution with representations, that when conditioned on, do not correlate the label and the nuisance. For models in this set, we lower bound the performance for any member of the family with the mutual information between the representation and the label under the nuisance-randomized distribution. To build predictive models that maximize the performance lower bound, we develop Nuisance-Randomized Distillation (NURD). We evaluate NURD on a synthetic example, colored-MNIST, and classifying chest X-rays. When using non-lung patches as the nuisance in classifying chest X-rays, NURD produces models that predict pneumonia under strong spurious correlations.

Causal Estimation with Functional Confounders

Causal inference relies on two fundamental assumptions: ignorability and positivity. We study causal inference when the true confounder value can be expressed as a function of the observed data; we call this setting estimation with functional confounders (EFC). In this setting, ignorability is satisfied, however positivity is violated, and causal inference is impossible in general. We consider two scenarios where causal effects are estimable. First, we discuss interventions on a part of the treatment called functional interventions and a sufficient condition for effect estimation of these interventions called functional positivity. Second, we develop conditions for nonparametric effect estimation based on the gradient fields of the functional confounder and the true outcome function. To estimate effects under these conditions, we develop Level-set Orthogonal Descent Estimation (LODE). Further, we prove error bounds on LODE's effect estimates, evaluate our methods on simulated and real data, and empirically demonstrate the value of EFC.