Novel Node Category Detection Under Subpopulation Shift

In real-world graph data, distribution shifts can manifest in various ways, such as the emergence of new categories and changes in the relative proportions of existing categories. It is often important to detect nodes of novel categories under such distribution shifts for safety or insight discovery purposes. We introduce a new approach, Recall-Constrained Optimization with Selective Link Prediction (RECO-SLIP), to detect nodes belonging to novel categories in attributed graphs under subpopulation shifts. By integrating a recall-constrained learning framework with a sample-efficient link prediction mechanism, RECO-SLIP addresses the dual challenges of resilience against subpopulation shifts and the effective exploitation of graph structure. Our extensive empirical evaluation across multiple graph datasets demonstrates the superior performance of RECO-SLIP over existing methods.

LSTTN: A Long-Short Term Transformer-based Spatio-temporal Neural Network for Traffic Flow Forecasting

Accurate traffic forecasting is a fundamental problem in intelligent transportation systems and learning long-range traffic representations with key information through spatiotemporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) is a basic assumption of current traffic flow prediction models. However, due to structural limitations, existing STGNNs can only utilize short-range traffic flow data; therefore, the models cannot adequately learn the complex trends and periodic features in traffic flow. Besides, it is challenging to extract the key temporal information from the long historical traffic series and obtain a compact representation. To solve the above problems, we propose a novel LSTTN (Long-Short Term Transformer-based Network) framework comprehensively considering the long- and short-term features in historical traffic flow. First, we employ a masked subseries Transformer to infer the content of masked subseries from a small portion of unmasked subseries and their temporal context in a pretraining manner, forcing the model to efficiently learn compressed and contextual subseries temporal representations from long historical series. Then, based on the learned representations, long-term trend is extracted by using stacked 1D dilated convolution layers, and periodic features are extracted by dynamic graph convolution layers. For the difficulties in making time-step level prediction, LSTTN adopts a short-term trend extractor to learn fine-grained short-term temporal features. Finally, LSTTN fuses the long-term trend, periodic features and short-term features to obtain the prediction results. Experiments on four real-world datasets show that in 60-minute-ahead long-term forecasting, the LSTTN model achieves a minimum improvement of 5.63\% and a maximum improvement of 16.78\% over baseline models. The source code is available at https://github.com/GeoX-Lab/LSTTN.

FuseMoE: Mixture-of-Experts Transformers for Fleximodal Fusion

As machine learning models in critical fields increasingly grapple with multimodal data, they face the dual challenges of handling a wide array of modalities, often incomplete due to missing elements, and the temporal irregularity and sparsity of collected samples. Successfully leveraging this complex data, while overcoming the scarcity of high-quality training samples, is key to improving these models' predictive performance. We introduce ``FuseMoE'', a mixture-of-experts framework incorporated with an innovative gating function. Designed to integrate a diverse number of modalities, FuseMoE is effective in managing scenarios with missing modalities and irregularly sampled data trajectories. Theoretically, our unique gating function contributes to enhanced convergence rates, leading to better performance in multiple downstream tasks. The practical utility of FuseMoE in real world is validated by a challenging set of clinical risk prediction tasks.

Robustify Transformers with Robust Kernel Density Estimation

Recent advances in Transformer architecture have empowered its empirical success in various tasks across different domains. However, existing works mainly focus on improving the standard accuracy and computational cost, without considering the robustness of contaminated samples. Existing work has shown that the self-attention mechanism, which is the center of the Transformer architecture, can be viewed as a non-parametric estimator based on the well-known kernel density estimation (KDE). This motivates us to leverage the robust kernel density estimation (RKDE) in the self-attention mechanism, to alleviate the issue of the contamination of data by down-weighting the weight of bad samples in the estimation process. The modified self-attention mechanism can be incorporated into different Transformer variants. Empirical results on language modeling and image classification tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach.

Split Localized Conformal Prediction

Conformal prediction is a simple and powerful tool that can quantify uncertainty without any distributional assumptions. However, existing methods can only provide an average coverage guarantee, which is not ideal compared to the stronger conditional coverage guarantee. Although achieving exact conditional coverage is proven to be impossible, approximating conditional coverage is still an important research direction. In this paper, we propose a modified non-conformity score by leveraging local approximation of the conditional distribution. The modified score inherits the spirit of split conformal methods, which is simple and efficient compared with full conformal methods but better approximates conditional coverage guarantee. Empirical results on various datasets, including a high dimension age regression on image, demonstrate that our method provides tighter intervals compared to existing methods.

Efficient Forecasting of Large Scale Hierarchical Time Series via Multilevel Clustering

We propose a novel approach to the problem of clustering hierarchically aggregated time-series data, which has remained an understudied problem though it has several commercial applications. We first group time series at each aggregated level, while simultaneously leveraging local and global information. The proposed method can cluster hierarchical time series (HTS) with different lengths and structures. For common two-level hierarchies, we employ a combined objective for local and global clustering over spaces of discrete probability measures, using Wasserstein distance coupled with Soft-DTW divergence. For multi-level hierarchies, we present a bottom-up procedure that progressively leverages lower-level information for higher-level clustering. Our final goal is to improve both the accuracy and speed of forecasts for a larger number of HTS needed for a real-world application. To attain this goal, each time series is first assigned the forecast for its cluster representative, which can be considered as a "shrinkage prior" for the set of time series it represents. Then this base forecast can be quickly fine-tuned to adjust to the specifics of that time series. We empirically show that our method substantially improves performance in terms of both speed and accuracy for large-scale forecasting tasks involving much HTS.

Architecture Agnostic Federated Learning for Neural Networks

With growing concerns regarding data privacy and rapid increase in data volume, Federated Learning(FL) has become an important learning paradigm. However, jointly learning a deep neural network model in a FL setting proves to be a non-trivial task because of the complexities associated with the neural networks, such as varied architectures across clients, permutation invariance of the neurons, and presence of non-linear transformations in each layer. This work introduces a novel Federated Heterogeneous Neural Networks (FedHeNN) framework that allows each client to build a personalised model without enforcing a common architecture across clients. This allows each client to optimize with respect to local data and compute constraints, while still benefiting from the learnings of other (potentially more powerful) clients. The key idea of FedHeNN is to use the instance-level representations obtained from peer clients to guide the simultaneous training on each client. The extensive experimental results demonstrate that the FedHeNN framework is capable of learning better performing models on clients in both the settings of homogeneous and heterogeneous architectures across clients.

MECATS: Mixture-of-Experts for Quantile Forecasts of Aggregated Time Series

We introduce a mixture of heterogeneous experts framework called \texttt{MECATS}, which simultaneously forecasts the values of a set of time series that are related through an aggregation hierarchy. Different types of forecasting models can be employed as individual experts so that the form of each model can be tailored to the nature of the corresponding time series. \texttt{MECATS} learns hierarchical relationships during the training stage to help generalize better across all the time series being modeled and also mitigates coherency issues that arise due to constraints imposed by the hierarchy. We further build multiple quantile estimators on top of the point forecasts. The resulting probabilistic forecasts are nearly coherent, distribution-free, and independent of the choice of forecasting models. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation on both point and probabilistic forecasts and also formulate an extension for situations where change points exist in sequential data. In general, our method is robust, adaptive to datasets with different properties, and highly configurable and efficient for large-scale forecasting pipelines.

Multi-Pair Text Style Transfer on Unbalanced Data

Text-style transfer aims to convert text given in one domain into another by paraphrasing the sentence or substituting the keywords without altering the content. By necessity, state-of-the-art methods have evolved to accommodate nonparallel training data, as it is frequently the case there are multiple data sources of unequal size, with a mixture of labeled and unlabeled sentences. Moreover, the inherent style defined within each source might be distinct. A generic bidirectional (e.g., formal $\Leftrightarrow$ informal) style transfer regardless of different groups may not generalize well to different applications. In this work, we developed a task adaptive meta-learning framework that can simultaneously perform a multi-pair text-style transfer using a single model. The proposed method can adaptively balance the difference of meta-knowledge across multiple tasks. Results show that our method leads to better quantitative performance as well as coherent style variations. Common challenges of unbalanced data and mismatched domains are handled well by this method.