Multiple-Prediction-Powered Inference

Statistical estimation often involves tradeoffs between expensive, high-quality measurements and a variety of lower-quality proxies. We introduce Multiple-Prediction-Powered Inference (MultiPPI): a general framework for constructing statistically efficient estimates by optimally allocating resources across these diverse data sources. This work provides theoretical guarantees about the minimax optimality, finite-sample performance, and asymptotic normality of the MultiPPI estimator. Through experiments across three diverse large language model (LLM) evaluation scenarios, we show that MultiPPI consistently achieves lower estimation error than existing baselines. This advantage stems from its budget-adaptive allocation strategy, which strategically combines subsets of models by learning their complex cost and correlation structures.

ConvApparel: A Benchmark Dataset and Validation Framework for User Simulators in Conversational Recommenders

The promise of LLM-based user simulators to improve conversational AI is hindered by a critical "realism gap," leading to systems that are optimized for simulated interactions, but may fail to perform well in the real world. We introduce ConvApparel, a new dataset of human-AI conversations designed to address this gap. Its unique dual-agent data collection protocol -- using both "good" and "bad" recommenders -- enables counterfactual validation by capturing a wide spectrum of user experiences, enriched with first-person annotations of user satisfaction. We propose a comprehensive validation framework that combines statistical alignment, a human-likeness score, and counterfactual validation to test for generalization. Our experiments reveal a significant realism gap across all simulators. However, the framework also shows that data-driven simulators outperform a prompted baseline, particularly in counterfactual validation where they adapt more realistically to unseen behaviors, suggesting they embody more robust, if imperfect, user models.

Latent Reasoning with Supervised Thinking States

Reasoning with a chain-of-thought (CoT) enables Large Language Models (LLMs) to solve complex tasks but incurs significant inference costs due to the generation of long rationales. We propose Thinking States, a method that performs reasoning {\em while} the input is processing. Specifically, Thinking States generates sequences of thinking tokens every few input tokens, transforms the thoughts back into embedding space, and adds them to the following input tokens. This has two key advantages. First, it captures the recurrent nature of CoT, but where the thought tokens are generated as input is processing. Second, since the thoughts are represented as tokens, they can be learned from natural language supervision, and using teacher-forcing, which is parallelizable. Empirically, Thinking States outperforms other latent reasoning methods on multiple reasoning tasks, narrowing the gap to CoT on math problems, and matching its performance on 2-Hop QA with improved latency. On state-tracking tasks, we show Thinking States leads to stronger reasoning behavior than CoT, successfully extrapolating to longer sequences than seen during training.

The FACTS Leaderboard: A Comprehensive Benchmark for Large Language Model Factuality

We introduce The FACTS Leaderboard, an online leaderboard suite and associated set of benchmarks that comprehensively evaluates the ability of language models to generate factually accurate text across diverse scenarios. The suite provides a holistic measure of factuality by aggregating the performance of models on four distinct sub-leaderboards: (1) FACTS Multimodal, which measures the factuality of responses to image-based questions; (2) FACTS Parametric, which assesses models' world knowledge by answering closed-book factoid questions from internal parameters; (3) FACTS Search, which evaluates factuality in information-seeking scenarios, where the model must use a search API; and (4) FACTS Grounding (v2), which evaluates whether long-form responses are grounded in provided documents, featuring significantly improved judge models. Each sub-leaderboard employs automated judge models to score model responses, and the final suite score is an average of the four components, designed to provide a robust and balanced assessment of a model's overall factuality. The FACTS Leaderboard Suite will be actively maintained, containing both public and private splits to allow for external participation while guarding its integrity. It can be found at https://www.kaggle.com/benchmarks/google/facts .

Depth-Width tradeoffs in Algorithmic Reasoning of Graph Tasks with Transformers

Transformers have revolutionized the field of machine learning. In particular, they can be used to solve complex algorithmic problems, including graph-based tasks. In such algorithmic tasks a key question is what is the minimal size of a transformer that can implement a task. Recent work has begun to explore this problem for graph-based tasks, showing that for sub-linear embedding dimension (i.e., model width) logarithmic depth suffices. However, an open question, which we address here, is what happens if width is allowed to grow linearly. Here we analyze this setting, and provide the surprising result that with linear width, constant depth suffices for solving a host of graph-based problems. This suggests that a moderate increase in width can allow much shallower models, which are advantageous in terms of inference time. For other problems, we show that quadratic width is required. Our results demonstrate the complex and intriguing landscape of transformer implementations of graph-based algorithms. We support our theoretical results with empirical evaluations.

Towards Invariance to Node Identifiers in Graph Neural Networks

Message-Passing Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are known to have limited expressive power, due to their message passing structure. One mechanism for circumventing this limitation is to add unique node identifiers (IDs), which break the symmetries that underlie the expressivity limitation. In this work, we highlight a key limitation of the ID framework, and propose an approach for addressing it. We begin by observing that the final output of the GNN should clearly not depend on the specific IDs used. We then show that in practice this does not hold, and thus the learned network does not possess this desired structural property. Such invariance to node IDs may be enforced in several ways, and we discuss their theoretical properties. We then propose a novel regularization method that effectively enforces ID invariance to the network. Extensive evaluations on both real-world and synthetic tasks demonstrate that our approach significantly improves ID invariance and, in turn, often boosts generalization performance.

On the Expressivity of Selective State-Space Layers: A Multivariate Polynomial Approach

Recent advances in efficient sequence modeling have introduced selective state-space layers, a key component of the Mamba architecture, which have demonstrated remarkable success in a wide range of NLP and vision tasks. While Mamba's empirical performance has matched or surpassed SoTA transformers on such diverse benchmarks, the theoretical foundations underlying its powerful representational capabilities remain less explored. In this work, we investigate the expressivity of selective state-space layers using multivariate polynomials, and prove that they surpass linear transformers in expressiveness. Consequently, our findings reveal that Mamba offers superior representational power over linear attention-based models for long sequences, while not sacrificing their generalization. Our theoretical insights are validated by a comprehensive set of empirical experiments on various datasets.

Teaching Models to Improve on Tape

Large Language Models (LLMs) often struggle when prompted to generate content under specific constraints. However, in such cases it is often easy to check whether these constraints are satisfied or violated. Recent works have shown that LLMs can benefit from such ``corrective feedback''. Here we claim that this skill of LLMs can be significantly enhanced via training. We introduce an RL framework for teaching models to use such rewards, by simulating interaction sessions, and rewarding the model according to its ability to satisfy the constraints. We refer to our method as CORGI (Controlled Generation with RL for Guided Interaction), and evaluate it on a variety of controlled generation tasks using unlabeled training data. We find that CORGI consistently outperforms the baseline reinforcement learning method that does not incorporate conversational feedback. Furthermore, CORGI's interactive framework enables meta-learning, allowing the LLM to generalize better to guided interaction in new tasks. Our results clearly show that conversational optimization, when combined with reinforcement learning, significantly improves the effectiveness of LLMs in controlled generation contexts.

On the Utilization of Unique Node Identifiers in Graph Neural Networks

Graph neural networks have inherent representational limitations due to their message-passing structure. Recent work has suggested that these limitations can be overcome by using unique node identifiers (UIDs). Here we argue that despite the advantages of UIDs, one of their disadvantages is that they lose the desirable property of permutation-equivariance. We thus propose to focus on UID models that are permutation-equivariant, and present theoretical arguments for their advantages. Motivated by this, we propose a method to regularize UID models towards permutation equivariance, via a contrastive loss. We empirically demonstrate that our approach improves generalization and extrapolation abilities while providing faster training convergence. On the recent BREC expressiveness benchmark, our proposed method achieves state-of-the-art performance compared to other random-based approaches.

Provable Benefits of Complex Parameterizations for Structured State Space Models

Structured state space models (SSMs), the core engine behind prominent neural networks such as S4 and Mamba, are linear dynamical systems adhering to a specified structure, most notably diagonal. In contrast to typical neural network modules, whose parameterizations are real, SSMs often use complex parameterizations. Theoretically explaining the benefits of complex parameterizations for SSMs is an open problem. The current paper takes a step towards its resolution, by establishing formal gaps between real and complex diagonal SSMs. Firstly, we prove that while a moderate dimension suffices in order for a complex SSM to express all mappings of a real SSM, a much higher dimension is needed for a real SSM to express mappings of a complex SSM. Secondly, we prove that even if the dimension of a real SSM is high enough to express a given mapping, typically, doing so requires the parameters of the real SSM to hold exponentially large values, which cannot be learned in practice. In contrast, a complex SSM can express any given mapping with moderate parameter values. Experiments corroborate our theory, and suggest a potential extension of the theory that accounts for selectivity, a new architectural feature yielding state of the art performance.