When AI Navigates the Fog of War

Can AI reason about a war before its trajectory becomes historically obvious? Analyzing this capability is difficult because retrospective geopolitical prediction is heavily confounded by training-data leakage. We address this challenge through a temporally grounded case study of the early stages of the 2026 Middle East conflict, which unfolded after the training cutoff of current frontier models. We construct 11 critical temporal nodes, 42 node-specific verifiable questions, and 5 general exploratory questions, requiring models to reason only from information that would have been publicly available at each moment. This design substantially mitigates training-data leakage concerns, creating a setting well-suited for studying how models analyze an unfolding crisis under the fog of war, and provides, to our knowledge, the first temporally grounded analysis of LLM reasoning in an ongoing geopolitical conflict. Our analysis reveals three main findings. First, current state-of-the-art large language models often display a striking degree of strategic realism, reasoning beyond surface rhetoric toward deeper structural incentives. Second, this capability is uneven across domains: models are more reliable in economically and logistically structured settings than in politically ambiguous multi-actor environments. Finally, model narratives evolve over time, shifting from early expectations of rapid containment toward more systemic accounts of regional entrenchment and attritional de-escalation. Since the conflict remains ongoing at the time of writing, this work can serve as an archival snapshot of model reasoning during an unfolding geopolitical crisis, enabling future studies without the hindsight bias of retrospective analysis.

Does Socialization Emerge in AI Agent Society? A Case Study of Moltbook

As large language model agents increasingly populate networked environments, a fundamental question arises: do artificial intelligence (AI) agent societies undergo convergence dynamics similar to human social systems? Lately, Moltbook approximates a plausible future scenario in which autonomous agents participate in an open-ended, continuously evolving online society. We present the first large-scale systemic diagnosis of this AI agent society. Beyond static observation, we introduce a quantitative diagnostic framework for dynamic evolution in AI agent societies, measuring semantic stabilization, lexical turnover, individual inertia, influence persistence, and collective consensus. Our analysis reveals a system in dynamic balance in Moltbook: while global semantic averages stabilize rapidly, individual agents retain high diversity and persistent lexical turnover, defying homogenization. However, agents exhibit strong individual inertia and minimal adaptive response to interaction partners, preventing mutual influence and consensus. Consequently, influence remains transient with no persistent supernodes, and the society fails to develop stable collective influence anchors due to the absence of shared social memory. These findings demonstrate that scale and interaction density alone are insufficient to induce socialization, providing actionable design and analysis principles for upcoming next-generation AI agent societies.

What does RL improve for Visual Reasoning? A Frankenstein-Style Analysis

Reinforcement learning (RL) with verifiable rewards has become a standard post-training stage for boosting visual reasoning in vision-language models, yet it remains unclear what capabilities RL actually improves compared with supervised fine-tuning as cold-start initialization (IN). End-to-end benchmark gains conflate multiple factors, making it difficult to attribute improvements to specific skills. To bridge the gap, we propose a Frankenstein-style analysis framework including: (i) functional localization via causal probing; (ii) update characterization via parameter comparison; and (iii) transferability test via model merging. Instead, RL induces a consistent inference-time shift primarily in mid-to-late layers, and these mid-to-late refinements are both transferable (via merging) and necessary (via freezing) for RL gains. Overall, our results suggest that RL's reliable contribution in visual reasoning is not a uniform enhancement of visual perception, but a systematic refinement of mid-to-late transformer computation that improves vision-to-reasoning alignment and reasoning performance, highlighting the limitations of benchmark-only evaluation for understanding multimodal reasoning improvements.

Hunyuan-TurboS: Advancing Large Language Models through Mamba-Transformer Synergy and Adaptive Chain-of-Thought

As Large Language Models (LLMs) rapidly advance, we introduce Hunyuan-TurboS, a novel large hybrid Transformer-Mamba Mixture of Experts (MoE) model. It synergistically combines Mamba's long-sequence processing efficiency with Transformer's superior contextual understanding. Hunyuan-TurboS features an adaptive long-short chain-of-thought (CoT) mechanism, dynamically switching between rapid responses for simple queries and deep "thinking" modes for complex problems, optimizing computational resources. Architecturally, this 56B activated (560B total) parameter model employs 128 layers (Mamba2, Attention, FFN) with an innovative AMF/MF block pattern. Faster Mamba2 ensures linear complexity, Grouped-Query Attention minimizes KV cache, and FFNs use an MoE structure. Pre-trained on 16T high-quality tokens, it supports a 256K context length and is the first industry-deployed large-scale Mamba model. Our comprehensive post-training strategy enhances capabilities via Supervised Fine-Tuning (3M instructions), a novel Adaptive Long-short CoT Fusion method, Multi-round Deliberation Learning for iterative improvement, and a two-stage Large-scale Reinforcement Learning process targeting STEM and general instruction-following. Evaluations show strong performance: overall top 7 rank on LMSYS Chatbot Arena with a score of 1356, outperforming leading models like Gemini-2.0-Flash-001 (1352) and o4-mini-2025-04-16 (1345). TurboS also achieves an average of 77.9% across 23 automated benchmarks. Hunyuan-TurboS balances high performance and efficiency, offering substantial capabilities at lower inference costs than many reasoning models, establishing a new paradigm for efficient large-scale pre-trained models.

R1-Zero's "Aha Moment" in Visual Reasoning on a 2B Non-SFT Model

Recently DeepSeek R1 demonstrated how reinforcement learning with simple rule-based incentives can enable autonomous development of complex reasoning in large language models, characterized by the "aha moment", in which the model manifest self-reflection and increased response length during training. However, attempts to extend this success to multimodal reasoning often failed to reproduce these key characteristics. In this report, we present the first successful replication of these emergent characteristics for multimodal reasoning on only a non-SFT 2B model. Starting with Qwen2-VL-2B and applying reinforcement learning directly on the SAT dataset, our model achieves 59.47% accuracy on CVBench, outperforming the base model by approximately ~30% and exceeding both SFT setting by ~2%. In addition, we share our failed attempts and insights in attempting to achieve R1-like reasoning using RL with instruct models. aiming to shed light on the challenges involved. Our key observations include: (1) applying RL on instruct model often results in trivial reasoning trajectories, and (2) naive length reward are ineffective in eliciting reasoning capabilities. The project code is available at https://github.com/turningpoint-ai/VisualThinker-R1-Zero

Teaching Video Diffusion Model with Latent Physical Phenomenon Knowledge

Video diffusion models have exhibited tremendous progress in various video generation tasks. However, existing models struggle to capture latent physical knowledge, failing to infer physical phenomena that are challenging to articulate with natural language. Generating videos following the fundamental physical laws is still an opening challenge. To address this challenge, we propose a novel method to teach video diffusion models with latent physical phenomenon knowledge, enabling the accurate generation of physically informed phenomena. Specifically, we first pretrain Masked Autoencoders (MAE) to reconstruct the physical phenomena, resulting in output embeddings that encapsulate latent physical phenomenon knowledge. Leveraging these embeddings, we could generate the pseudo-language prompt features based on the aligned spatial relationships between CLIP vision and language encoders. Particularly, given that diffusion models typically use CLIP's language encoder for text prompt embeddings, our approach integrates the CLIP visual features informed by latent physical knowledge into a quaternion hidden space. This enables the modeling of spatial relationships to produce physical knowledge-informed pseudo-language prompts. By incorporating these prompt features and fine-tuning the video diffusion model in a parameter-efficient manner, the physical knowledge-informed videos are successfully generated. We validate our method extensively through both numerical simulations and real-world observations of physical phenomena, demonstrating its remarkable performance across diverse scenarios.

Hunyuan-Large: An Open-Source MoE Model with 52 Billion Activated Parameters by Tencent

In this paper, we introduce Hunyuan-Large, which is currently the largest open-source Transformer-based mixture of experts model, with a total of 389 billion parameters and 52 billion activation parameters, capable of handling up to 256K tokens. We conduct a thorough evaluation of Hunyuan-Large's superior performance across various benchmarks including language understanding and generation, logical reasoning, mathematical problem-solving, coding, long-context, and aggregated tasks, where it outperforms LLama3.1-70B and exhibits comparable performance when compared to the significantly larger LLama3.1-405B model. Key practice of Hunyuan-Large include large-scale synthetic data that is orders larger than in previous literature, a mixed expert routing strategy, a key-value cache compression technique, and an expert-specific learning rate strategy. Additionally, we also investigate the scaling laws and learning rate schedule of mixture of experts models, providing valuable insights and guidances for future model development and optimization. The code and checkpoints of Hunyuan-Large are released to facilitate future innovations and applications. Codes: https://github.com/Tencent/Hunyuan-Large Models: https://huggingface.co/tencent/Tencent-Hunyuan-Large

A Simple Approach to Unifying Diffusion-based Conditional Generation

Recent progress in image generation has sparked research into controlling these models through condition signals, with various methods addressing specific challenges in conditional generation. Instead of proposing another specialized technique, we introduce a simple, unified framework to handle diverse conditional generation tasks involving a specific image-condition correlation. By learning a joint distribution over a correlated image pair (e.g. image and depth) with a diffusion model, our approach enables versatile capabilities via different inference-time sampling schemes, including controllable image generation (e.g. depth to image), estimation (e.g. image to depth), signal guidance, joint generation (image & depth), and coarse control. Previous attempts at unification often introduce significant complexity through multi-stage training, architectural modification, or increased parameter counts. In contrast, our simple formulation requires a single, computationally efficient training stage, maintains the standard model input, and adds minimal learned parameters (15% of the base model). Moreover, our model supports additional capabilities like non-spatially aligned and coarse conditioning. Extensive results show that our single model can produce comparable results with specialized methods and better results than prior unified methods. We also demonstrate that multiple models can be effectively combined for multi-signal conditional generation.

MOSSBench: Is Your Multimodal Language Model Oversensitive to Safe Queries?

Humans are prone to cognitive distortions -- biased thinking patterns that lead to exaggerated responses to specific stimuli, albeit in very different contexts. This paper demonstrates that advanced Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) exhibit similar tendencies. While these models are designed to respond queries under safety mechanism, they sometimes reject harmless queries in the presence of certain visual stimuli, disregarding the benign nature of their contexts. As the initial step in investigating this behavior, we identify three types of stimuli that trigger the oversensitivity of existing MLLMs: Exaggerated Risk, Negated Harm, and Counterintuitive Interpretation. To systematically evaluate MLLMs' oversensitivity to these stimuli, we propose the Multimodal OverSenSitivity Benchmark (MOSSBench). This toolkit consists of 300 manually collected benign multimodal queries, cross-verified by third-party reviewers (AMT). Empirical studies using MOSSBench on 20 MLLMs reveal several insights: (1). Oversensitivity is prevalent among SOTA MLLMs, with refusal rates reaching up to 76% for harmless queries. (2). Safer models are more oversensitive: increasing safety may inadvertently raise caution and conservatism in the model's responses. (3). Different types of stimuli tend to cause errors at specific stages -- perception, intent reasoning, and safety judgement -- in the response process of MLLMs. These findings highlight the need for refined safety mechanisms that balance caution with contextually appropriate responses, improving the reliability of MLLMs in real-world applications. We make our project available at https://turningpoint-ai.github.io/MOSSBench/.

DrAttack: Prompt Decomposition and Reconstruction Makes Powerful LLM Jailbreakers

The safety alignment of Large Language Models (LLMs) is vulnerable to both manual and automated jailbreak attacks, which adversarially trigger LLMs to output harmful content. However, current methods for jailbreaking LLMs, which nest entire harmful prompts, are not effective at concealing malicious intent and can be easily identified and rejected by well-aligned LLMs. This paper discovers that decomposing a malicious prompt into separated sub-prompts can effectively obscure its underlying malicious intent by presenting it in a fragmented, less detectable form, thereby addressing these limitations. We introduce an automatic prompt \textbf{D}ecomposition and \textbf{R}econstruction framework for jailbreak \textbf{Attack} (DrAttack). DrAttack includes three key components: (a) `Decomposition' of the original prompt into sub-prompts, (b) `Reconstruction' of these sub-prompts implicitly by in-context learning with semantically similar but harmless reassembling demo, and (c) a `Synonym Search' of sub-prompts, aiming to find sub-prompts' synonyms that maintain the original intent while jailbreaking LLMs. An extensive empirical study across multiple open-source and closed-source LLMs demonstrates that, with a significantly reduced number of queries, DrAttack obtains a substantial gain of success rate over prior SOTA prompt-only attackers. Notably, the success rate of 78.0\% on GPT-4 with merely 15 queries surpassed previous art by 33.1\%. The project is available at https://github.com/xirui-li/DrAttack.