A Generic Knowledge Based Medical Diagnosis Expert System

In this paper, we design and implement a generic medical knowledge based system (MKBS) for identifying diseases from several symptoms. In this system, some important aspects like knowledge bases system, knowledge representation, inference engine have been addressed. The system asks users different questions and inference engines will use the certainty factor to prune out low possible solutions. The proposed disease diagnosis system also uses a graphical user interface (GUI) to facilitate users to interact with the expert system. Our expert system is generic and flexible, which can be integrated with any rule bases system in disease diagnosis.

TIP: Task-Informed Motion Prediction for Intelligent Systems

Motion prediction is important for intelligent driving systems, providing the future distributions of road agent behaviors and supporting various decision making tasks. Existing motion predictors are often optimized and evaluated via task-agnostic measures based on prediction accuracy. Such measures fail to account for the use of prediction in downstream tasks, and could result in sub-optimal task performance. We propose a task-informed motion prediction framework that jointly reasons about prediction accuracy and task utility, to better support downstream tasks through its predictions. The task utility function does not require the full task information, but rather a specification of the utility of the task, resulting in predictors that serve a wide range of downstream tasks. We demonstrate our framework on two use cases of task utilities, in the context of autonomous driving and parallel autonomy, and show the advantage of task-informed predictors over task-agnostic ones on the Waymo Open Motion dataset.

Research on Knowledge based Expert System for Medical Diagnosis

In this paper we propose the design and implementation of a generic medical knowledge based system (MKBS) for identifying diseases from several symptoms and signs. To diagnosis diseases, user will be asked by the system for different questions and finally inference engine will use certainty factor to prune out low possible solutions. In this system some important aspects like Knowledge bases system, Knowledge representation, Inference Engine has been addressed. New certainty fact has been introduced to get conclusion about same firing rules. The proposed disease diagnosis system also uses a graphical user user interface to facilitate user to interact a with expert system more easily. The proposed system is generic and knowledge based, and it can be integrated with any rule bases system in disease diagnosis.

UniNet: Unified Architecture Search with Convolution, Transformer, and MLP

Recently, transformer and multi-layer perceptron (MLP) architectures have achieved impressive results on various vision tasks. A few works investigated manually combining those operators to design visual network architectures, and can achieve satisfactory performances to some extent. In this paper, we propose to jointly search the optimal combination of convolution, transformer, and MLP for building a series of all-operator network architectures with high performances on visual tasks. We empirically identify that the widely-used strided convolution or pooling based down-sampling modules become the performance bottlenecks when the operators are combined to form a network. To better tackle the global context captured by the transformer and MLP operators, we propose two novel context-aware down-sampling modules, which can better adapt to the global information encoded by transformer and MLP operators. To this end, we jointly search all operators and down-sampling modules in a unified search space. Notably, Our searched network UniNet (Unified Network) outperforms state-of-the-art pure convolution-based architecture, EfficientNet, and pure transformer-based architecture, Swin-Transformer, on multiple public visual benchmarks, ImageNet classification, COCO object detection, and ADE20K semantic segmentation.

HYPER: Learned Hybrid Trajectory Prediction via Factored Inference and Adaptive Sampling

Modeling multi-modal high-level intent is important for ensuring diversity in trajectory prediction. Existing approaches explore the discrete nature of human intent before predicting continuous trajectories, to improve accuracy and support explainability. However, these approaches often assume the intent to remain fixed over the prediction horizon, which is problematic in practice, especially over longer horizons. To overcome this limitation, we introduce HYPER, a general and expressive hybrid prediction framework that models evolving human intent. By modeling traffic agents as a hybrid discrete-continuous system, our approach is capable of predicting discrete intent changes over time. We learn the probabilistic hybrid model via a maximum likelihood estimation problem and leverage neural proposal distributions to sample adaptively from the exponentially growing discrete space. The overall approach affords a better trade-off between accuracy and coverage. We train and validate our model on the Argoverse dataset, and demonstrate its effectiveness through comprehensive ablation studies and comparisons with state-of-the-art models.

Fast nonlinear risk assessment for autonomous vehicles using learned conditional probabilistic models of agent futures

This paper presents fast non-sampling based methods to assess the risk for trajectories of autonomous vehicles when probabilistic predictions of other agents' futures are generated by deep neural networks (DNNs). The presented methods address a wide range of representations for uncertain predictions including both Gaussian and non-Gaussian mixture models to predict both agent positions and control inputs conditioned on the scene contexts. We show that the problem of risk assessment when Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) of agent positions are learned can be solved rapidly to arbitrary levels of accuracy with existing numerical methods. To address the problem of risk assessment for non-Gaussian mixture models of agent position, we propose finding upper bounds on risk using nonlinear Chebyshev's Inequality and sums-of-squares (SOS) programming; they are both of interest as the former is much faster while the latter can be arbitrarily tight. These approaches only require higher order statistical moments of agent positions to determine upper bounds on risk. To perform risk assessment when models are learned for agent control inputs as opposed to positions, we propagate the moments of uncertain control inputs through the nonlinear motion dynamics to obtain the exact moments of uncertain position over the planning horizon. To this end, we construct deterministic linear dynamical systems that govern the exact time evolution of the moments of uncertain position in the presence of uncertain control inputs. The presented methods are demonstrated on realistic predictions from DNNs trained on the Argoverse and CARLA datasets and are shown to be effective for rapidly assessing the probability of low probability events.

Risk Conditioned Neural Motion Planning

Risk-bounded motion planning is an important yet difficult problem for safety-critical tasks. While existing mathematical programming methods offer theoretical guarantees in the context of constrained Markov decision processes, they either lack scalability in solving larger problems or produce conservative plans. Recent advances in deep reinforcement learning improve scalability by learning policy networks as function approximators. In this paper, we propose an extension of soft actor critic model to estimate the execution risk of a plan through a risk critic and produce risk-bounded policies efficiently by adding an extra risk term in the loss function of the policy network. We define the execution risk in an accurate form, as opposed to approximating it through a summation of immediate risks at each time step that leads to conservative plans. Our proposed model is conditioned on a continuous spectrum of risk bounds, allowing the user to adjust the risk-averse level of the agent on the fly. Through a set of experiments, we show the advantage of our model in terms of both computational time and plan quality, compared to a state-of-the-art mathematical programming baseline, and validate its performance in more complicated scenarios, including nonlinear dynamics and larger state space.

Sea Ice Forecasting using Attention-based Ensemble LSTM

Accurately forecasting Arctic sea ice from subseasonal to seasonal scales has been a major scientific effort with fundamental challenges at play. In addition to physics-based earth system models, researchers have been applying multiple statistical and machine learning models for sea ice forecasting. Looking at the potential of data-driven sea ice forecasting, we propose an attention-based Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) ensemble method to predict monthly sea ice extent up to 1 month ahead. Using daily and monthly satellite retrieved sea ice data from NSIDC and atmospheric and oceanic variables from ERA5 reanalysis product for 39 years, we show that our multi-temporal ensemble method outperforms several baseline and recently proposed deep learning models. This will substantially improve our ability in predicting future Arctic sea ice changes, which is fundamental for forecasting transporting routes, resource development, coastal erosion, threats to Arctic coastal communities and wildlife.

Cognitive Visual Commonsense Reasoning Using Dynamic Working Memory

Visual Commonsense Reasoning (VCR) predicts an answer with corresponding rationale, given a question-image input. VCR is a recently introduced visual scene understanding task with a wide range of applications, including visual question answering, automated vehicle systems, and clinical decision support. Previous approaches to solving the VCR task generally rely on pre-training or exploiting memory with long dependency relationship encoded models. However, these approaches suffer from a lack of generalizability and prior knowledge. In this paper we propose a dynamic working memory based cognitive VCR network, which stores accumulated commonsense between sentences to provide prior knowledge for inference. Extensive experiments show that the proposed model yields significant improvements over existing methods on the benchmark VCR dataset. Moreover, the proposed model provides intuitive interpretation into visual commonsense reasoning. A Python implementation of our mechanism is publicly available at https://github.com/tanjatang/DMVCR

PP-YOLOv2: A Practical Object Detector

Being effective and efficient is essential to an object detector for practical use. To meet these two concerns, we comprehensively evaluate a collection of existing refinements to improve the performance of PP-YOLO while almost keep the infer time unchanged. This paper will analyze a collection of refinements and empirically evaluate their impact on the final model performance through incremental ablation study. Things we tried that didn't work will also be discussed. By combining multiple effective refinements, we boost PP-YOLO's performance from 45.9% mAP to 49.5% mAP on COCO2017 test-dev. Since a significant margin of performance has been made, we present PP-YOLOv2. In terms of speed, PP-YOLOv2 runs in 68.9FPS at 640x640 input size. Paddle inference engine with TensorRT, FP16-precision, and batch size = 1 further improves PP-YOLOv2's infer speed, which achieves 106.5 FPS. Such a performance surpasses existing object detectors with roughly the same amount of parameters (i.e., YOLOv4-CSP, YOLOv5l). Besides, PP-YOLOv2 with ResNet101 achieves 50.3% mAP on COCO2017 test-dev. Source code is at https://github.com/PaddlePaddle/PaddleDetection.