What LLMs explain is not what they believe: Evaluating explanation sufficiency under models' own input beliefs

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, where free-text explanations such as chain-of-thought and post-hoc rationales are used to justify model outputs. Yet it remains unclear whether these explanations are sufficient, i.e., if they contain enough information to explain the model's output-generating process. We generalize classical sufficiency from feature attributions to arbitrary explanations and prove that explanation sufficiency can change depending on the input distribution, which must be explicitly defined for LLM explanations. We propose using the LLM itself to generate alternative inputs conditioned on an explanation, capturing its beliefs about possible inputs. We formalize self-consistent sufficiency as a goal for free-text explanations and introduce an information-theoretic metric, SCSuff, that enables evaluation of free-text explanations without relying on predefined biases or shortcuts. Our experiments show that SCSuff agrees with targeted perturbation tests where applicable and demonstrate that explanation sufficiency can vary with the input distribution. We find LLM explanations are generally insufficient and weakly correlated with model size, accuracy, or output entropy. Analysis of final-token hidden states shows that top and bottom SCSuff scores can be predicted from internal representations, suggesting that SCSuff can guide detection and improvement of sufficient LLM explanations. The code for this paper is available at https://github.com/rajesh-lab/self-consistent-sufficiency .

Can LLM Agents Infer World Models? Evidence from Agentic Automata Learning

We propose agentic automata learning to evaluate the extent to which tool-calling LLM agents can uncover hidden environments through interaction. In our setup, an agent should uncover a hidden deterministic finite automaton (DFA) by interacting with an oracle through (1) membership queries ("Does this string belong to the target language?") and (2) equivalence queries ("Is this the target DFA?"). This yields a scalable testbed with controlled task complexity, measurable interaction efficiency, and strong baselines (classic automata-learning algorithms). Evaluating state-of-the-art LLMs, we find that performance drops sharply as DFA size increases. Reasoning models are markedly stronger than non-reasoning models, yet trajectory analyses reveal recurring failures in query planning, evidence integration, and hypothesis construction. Overall, our results show that current LLM agents can sometimes perform non-trivial interactive discovery, but remain far less robust and efficient than classic algorithms for the task.

Can LLMs Introspect? A Reality Check

Can large language models detect and report their own internal states? A number of studies have argued that the answer to this question is yes. We argue, based on lessons from human metacognition research, that this conclusion may be premature: to be convinced of this conclusion we need to distinguish genuine introspection from pattern matching based on surface-level cues. Furthermore, we argue that behavioral evidence alone is inherently insufficient to establish strong introspective claims. We re-examine two recently introduced evaluation paradigms in light of this consideration. In the first paradigm, models are expected to detect whether their internal states have been tampered with. We find that models cannot reliably distinguish such interventions on their internal states from manipulations of the input, suggesting that their success in the original studies reflects their ability to detect anomalies more generally, as opposed to interventions on their internal states in particular. In the second paradigm we examine, models are tasked with predicting labels derived from their own hidden states. Here, we find that classifiers that only have access to the input achieve equivalent performance to the model's own in-context predictions, indicating that the original results do not conclusively demonstrate that the model has privileged access to its internal representations. We further introduce a relabeled control setting, where models cannot rely on the semantics of the task to solve it, and instead must rely on the internal representation; models perform closer to chance on this better-controlled version of the task. Taken together, these results indicate that current evidence is insufficient to establish that LLMs display metacognitive monitoring.

Geometric Factual Recall in Transformers

How do transformer language models memorize factual associations? A common view casts internal weight matrices as associative memories over pairs of embeddings, requiring parameter counts that scale linearly with the number of facts. We develop a theoretical and empirical account of an alternative, \emph{geometric} form of memorization in which learned embeddings encode relational structure directly, and the MLP plays a qualitatively different role. In a controlled setting where a single-layer transformer must memorize random bijections from subjects to a shared attribute set, we prove that a logarithmic embedding dimension suffices: subject embeddings encode \emph{linear superpositions} of their associated attribute vectors, and a small MLP acts as a relation-conditioned selector that extracts the relevant attribute via ReLU gating, and not as an associative key-value mapping. We extend these results to the multi-hop setting -- chains of relational queries such as ``Who is the mother of the wife of $x$?'' -- providing constructions with and without chain-of-thought that exhibit a provable capacity-depth tradeoff, complemented by a matching information-theoretic lower bound. Empirically, gradient descent discovers solutions with precisely the predicted structure. Once trained, the MLP transfers zero-shot to entirely new bijections when subject embeddings are appropriately re-initialized, revealing that it has learned a generic selection mechanism rather than memorized any particular set of facts.

The Truthfulness Spectrum Hypothesis

Large language models (LLMs) have been reported to linearly encode truthfulness, yet recent work questions this finding's generality. We reconcile these views with the truthfulness spectrum hypothesis: the representational space contains directions ranging from broadly domain-general to narrowly domain-specific. To test this hypothesis, we systematically evaluate probe generalization across five truth types (definitional, empirical, logical, fictional, and ethical), sycophantic and expectation-inverted lying, and existing honesty benchmarks. Linear probes generalize well across most domains but fail on sycophantic and expectation-inverted lying. Yet training on all domains jointly recovers strong performance, confirming that domain-general directions exist despite poor pairwise transfer. The geometry of probe directions explains these patterns: Mahalanobis cosine similarity between probes near-perfectly predicts cross-domain generalization (R^2=0.98). Concept-erasure methods further isolate truth directions that are (1) domain-general, (2) domain-specific, or (3) shared only across particular domain subsets. Causal interventions reveal that domain-specific directions steer more effectively than domain-general ones. Finally, post-training reshapes truth geometry, pushing sycophantic lying further from other truth types, suggesting a representational basis for chat models' sycophantic tendencies. Together, our results support the truthfulness spectrum hypothesis: truth directions of varying generality coexist in representational space, with post-training reshaping their geometry. Code for all experiments is provided in https://github.com/zfying/truth_spec.

Discrete Diffusion Models Exploit Asymmetry to Solve Lookahead Planning Tasks

While Autoregressive (AR) Transformer-based Generative Language Models are frequently employed for lookahead tasks, recent research suggests a potential discrepancy in their ability to perform planning tasks that require multi-step lookahead. In this work, we investigate the distinct emergent mechanisms that arise when training AR versus Non-Autoregressive (NAR) models, such as Discrete Diffusion Models (dLLMs), on lookahead tasks. By requiring the models to plan ahead to reach the correct conclusion, we analyze how these two paradigms fundamentally differ in their approach to the problem. We identify a critical asymmetry in planning problems: while forward generation requires complex lookahead at branching junctions, reverse generation is often deterministic. This asymmetry creates an opportunity for NAR models. Through mechanistic analysis of training and inference dynamics, we demonstrate that NAR models learn to solve planning tasks by utilizing future tokens to decode backwards, avoiding the need to learn complex traversal mechanisms entirely. Consequently, we report that both AR and NAR models are able to achieve perfect accuracy on the lookahead task. However, NAR models require exponentially fewer training examples and shallower architectures compared to AR models, which often fail to converge without specific curriculum adjustments.

From Directions to Regions: Decomposing Activations in Language Models via Local Geometry

Activation decomposition methods in language models are tightly coupled to geometric assumptions on how concepts are realized in activation space. Existing approaches search for individual global directions, implicitly assuming linear separability, which overlooks concepts with nonlinear or multi-dimensional structure. In this work, we leverage Mixture of Factor Analyzers (MFA) as a scalable, unsupervised alternative that models the activation space as a collection of Gaussian regions with their local covariance structure. MFA decomposes activations into two compositional geometric objects: the region's centroid in activation space, and the local variation from the centroid. We train large-scale MFAs for Llama-3.1-8B and Gemma-2-2B, and show they capture complex, nonlinear structures in activation space. Moreover, evaluations on localization and steering benchmarks show that MFA outperforms unsupervised baselines, is competitive with supervised localization methods, and often achieves stronger steering performance than sparse autoencoders. Together, our findings position local geometry, expressed through subspaces, as a promising unit of analysis for scalable concept discovery and model control, accounting for complex structures that isolated directions fail to capture.

State over Tokens: Characterizing the Role of Reasoning Tokens

Large Language Models (LLMs) can generate reasoning tokens before their final answer to boost performance on complex tasks. While these sequences seem like human thought processes, empirical evidence reveals that they are not a faithful explanation of the model's actual reasoning process. To address this gap between appearance and function, we introduce the State over Tokens (SoT) conceptual framework. SoT reframes reasoning tokens not as a linguistic narrative, but as an externalized computational state -- the sole persistent information carrier across the model's stateless generation cycles. This explains how the tokens can drive correct reasoning without being a faithful explanation when read as text and surfaces previously overlooked research questions on these tokens. We argue that to truly understand the process that LLMs do, research must move beyond reading the reasoning tokens as text and focus on decoding them as state.

IQ Test for LLMs: An Evaluation Framework for Uncovering Core Skills in LLMs

Current evaluations of large language models (LLMs) rely on benchmark scores, but it is difficult to interpret what these individual scores reveal about a model's overall skills. Specifically, as a community we lack understanding of how tasks relate to one another, what they measure in common, how they differ, or which ones are redundant. As a result, models are often assessed via a single score averaged across benchmarks, an approach that fails to capture the models' wholistic strengths and limitations. Here, we propose a new evaluation paradigm that uses factor analysis to identify latent skills driving performance across benchmarks. We apply this method to a comprehensive new leaderboard showcasing the performance of 60 LLMs on 44 tasks, and identify a small set of latent skills that largely explain performance. Finally, we turn these insights into practical tools that identify redundant tasks, aid in model selection, and profile models along each latent skill.

The Medium Is Not the Message: Deconfounding Text Embeddings via Linear Concept Erasure

Embedding-based similarity metrics between text sequences can be influenced not just by the content dimensions we most care about, but can also be biased by spurious attributes like the text's source or language. These document confounders cause problems for many applications, but especially those that need to pool texts from different corpora. This paper shows that a debiasing algorithm that removes information about observed confounders from the encoder representations substantially reduces these biases at a minimal computational cost. Document similarity and clustering metrics improve across every embedding variant and task we evaluate -- often dramatically. Interestingly, performance on out-of-distribution benchmarks is not impacted, indicating that the embeddings are not otherwise degraded.