How to Compute the Probability of a Word

Language models (LMs) estimate the probability distribution over sequences of natural language; these distributions are crucial for computing perplexity and surprisal in linguistics research. While we are usually concerned with measuring these values for words, most LMs operate over subwords. Despite seemingly straightforward, accurately computing probabilities over one unit given probabilities over the other requires care. Indeed, we show here that many recent linguistic studies have been incorrectly computing these values. This paper derives the correct methods for computing word probabilities, highlighting issues when relying on language models that use beginning-of-word (bow)-marking tokenisers, e.g., the GPT family. Empirically, we show that correcting the widespread bug in probability computations affects measured outcomes in sentence comprehension and lexical optimisation analyses.

Causal Estimation of Memorisation Profiles

Understanding memorisation in language models has practical and societal implications, e.g., studying models' training dynamics or preventing copyright infringements. Prior work defines memorisation as the causal effect of training with an instance on the model's ability to predict that instance. This definition relies on a counterfactual: the ability to observe what would have happened had the model not seen that instance. Existing methods struggle to provide computationally efficient and accurate estimates of this counterfactual. Further, they often estimate memorisation for a model architecture rather than for a specific model instance. This paper fills an important gap in the literature, proposing a new, principled, and efficient method to estimate memorisation based on the difference-in-differences design from econometrics. Using this method, we characterise a model's memorisation profile--its memorisation trends across training--by only observing its behaviour on a small set of instances throughout training. In experiments with the Pythia model suite, we find that memorisation (i) is stronger and more persistent in larger models, (ii) is determined by data order and learning rate, and (iii) has stable trends across model sizes, thus making memorisation in larger models predictable from smaller ones.

Language Imbalance Can Boost Cross-lingual Generalisation

Multilinguality is crucial for extending recent advancements in language modelling to diverse linguistic communities. To maintain high performance while representing multiple languages, multilingual models ideally align representations, allowing what is learned in one language to generalise to others. Prior research has emphasised the importance of parallel data and shared vocabulary elements as key factors for such alignment. In this study, we investigate an unintuitive novel driver of cross-lingual generalisation: language imbalance. In controlled experiments on perfectly equivalent cloned languages, we observe that the existence of a predominant language during training boosts the performance of less frequent languages and leads to stronger alignment of model representations across languages. Furthermore, we find that this trend is amplified with scale: with large enough models or long enough training, we observe that bilingual training data with a 90/10 language split yields better performance on both languages than a balanced 50/50 split. Building on these insights, we design training schemes that can improve performance in all cloned languages, even without altering the training data. As we extend our analysis to real languages, we find that infrequent languages still benefit from frequent ones, yet whether language imbalance causes cross-lingual generalisation there is not conclusive.

On the Effect of Duplicate Subwords in Language Modelling

Tokenisation is a core part of language models (LMs). It involves splitting a character sequence into subwords which are assigned arbitrary indices before being served to the LM. While typically lossless, however, this process may lead to less sample efficient LM training: as it removes character-level information, it could make it harder for LMs to generalise across similar subwords, such as now and Now. We refer to such subwords as near duplicates. In this paper, we study the impact of near duplicate subwords on LM training efficiency. First, we design an experiment that gives us an upper bound to how much we should expect a model to improve if we could perfectly generalise across near duplicates. We do this by duplicating each subword in our LM's vocabulary, creating perfectly equivalent classes of subwords. Experimentally, we find that LMs need roughly 17% more data when trained in a fully duplicated setting. Second, we investigate the impact of naturally occurring near duplicates on LMs. Here, we see that merging them considerably hurts LM performance. Therefore, although subword duplication negatively impacts LM training efficiency, naturally occurring near duplicates may not be as similar as anticipated, limiting the potential for performance improvements.

Revisiting the Optimality of Word Lengths

Zipf (1935) posited that wordforms are optimized to minimize utterances' communicative costs. Under the assumption that cost is given by an utterance's length, he supported this claim by showing that words' lengths are inversely correlated with their frequencies. Communicative cost, however, can be operationalized in different ways. Piantadosi et al. (2011) claim that cost should be measured as the distance between an utterance's information rate and channel capacity, which we dub the channel capacity hypothesis (CCH) here. Following this logic, they then proposed that a word's length should be proportional to the expected value of its surprisal (negative log-probability in context). In this work, we show that Piantadosi et al.'s derivation does not minimize CCH's cost, but rather a lower bound, which we term CCH-lower. We propose a novel derivation, suggesting an improved way to minimize CCH's cost. Under this method, we find that a language's word lengths should instead be proportional to the surprisal's expectation plus its variance-to-mean ratio. Experimentally, we compare these three communicative cost functions: Zipf's, CCH-lower , and CCH. Across 13 languages and several experimental settings, we find that length is better predicted by frequency than either of the other hypotheses. In fact, when surprisal's expectation, or expectation plus variance-to-mean ratio, is estimated using better language models, it leads to worse word length predictions. We take these results as evidence that Zipf's longstanding hypothesis holds.

Quantifying the redundancy between prosody and text

Prosody -- the suprasegmental component of speech, including pitch, loudness, and tempo -- carries critical aspects of meaning. However, the relationship between the information conveyed by prosody vs. by the words themselves remains poorly understood. We use large language models (LLMs) to estimate how much information is redundant between prosody and the words themselves. Using a large spoken corpus of English audiobooks, we extract prosodic features aligned to individual words and test how well they can be predicted from LLM embeddings, compared to non-contextual word embeddings. We find a high degree of redundancy between the information carried by the words and prosodic information across several prosodic features, including intensity, duration, pauses, and pitch contours. Furthermore, a word's prosodic information is redundant with both the word itself and the context preceding as well as following it. Still, we observe that prosodic features can not be fully predicted from text, suggesting that prosody carries information above and beyond the words. Along with this paper, we release a general-purpose data processing pipeline for quantifying the relationship between linguistic information and extra-linguistic features.

An Exploration of Left-Corner Transformations

The left-corner transformation (Rosenkrantz and Lewis, 1970) is used to remove left recursion from context-free grammars, which is an important step towards making the grammar parsable top-down with simple techniques. This paper generalizes prior left-corner transformations to support semiring-weighted production rules and to provide finer-grained control over which left corners may be moved. Our generalized left-corner transformation (GLCT) arose from unifying the left-corner transformation and speculation transformation (Eisner and Blatz, 2007), originally for logic programming. Our new transformation and speculation define equivalent weighted languages. Yet, their derivation trees are structurally different in an important way: GLCT replaces left recursion with right recursion, and speculation does not. We also provide several technical results regarding the formal relationships between the outputs of GLCT, speculation, and the original grammar. Lastly, we empirically investigate the efficiency of GLCT for left-recursion elimination from grammars of nine languages.

Testing the Predictions of Surprisal Theory in 11 Languages

A fundamental result in psycholinguistics is that less predictable words take a longer time to process. One theoretical explanation for this finding is Surprisal Theory (Hale, 2001; Levy, 2008), which quantifies a word's predictability as its surprisal, i.e. its negative log-probability given a context. While evidence supporting the predictions of Surprisal Theory have been replicated widely, most have focused on a very narrow slice of data: native English speakers reading English texts. Indeed, no comprehensive multilingual analysis exists. We address this gap in the current literature by investigating the relationship between surprisal and reading times in eleven different languages, distributed across five language families. Deriving estimates from language models trained on monolingual and multilingual corpora, we test three predictions associated with surprisal theory: (i) whether surprisal is predictive of reading times; (ii) whether expected surprisal, i.e. contextual entropy, is predictive of reading times; (iii) and whether the linking function between surprisal and reading times is linear. We find that all three predictions are borne out crosslinguistically. By focusing on a more diverse set of languages, we argue that these results offer the most robust link to-date between information theory and incremental language processing across languages.

On the Efficacy of Sampling Adapters

Sampling is a common strategy for generating text from probabilistic models, yet standard ancestral sampling often results in text that is incoherent or ungrammatical. To alleviate this issue, various modifications to a model's sampling distribution, such as nucleus or top-k sampling, have been introduced and are now ubiquitously used in language generation systems. We propose a unified framework for understanding these techniques, which we term sampling adapters. Sampling adapters often lead to qualitatively better text, which raises the question: From a formal perspective, how are they changing the (sub)word-level distributions of language generation models? And why do these local changes lead to higher-quality text? We argue that the shift they enforce can be viewed as a trade-off between precision and recall: while the model loses its ability to produce certain strings, its precision rate on desirable text increases. While this trade-off is not reflected in standard metrics of distribution quality (such as perplexity), we find that several precision-emphasizing measures indeed indicate that sampling adapters can lead to probability distributions more aligned with the true distribution. Further, these measures correlate with higher sequence-level quality scores, specifically, Mauve.

A Cross-Linguistic Pressure for Uniform Information Density in Word Order

While natural languages differ widely in both canonical word order and word order flexibility, their word orders still follow shared cross-linguistic statistical patterns, often attributed to functional pressures. In the effort to identify these pressures, prior work has compared real and counterfactual word orders. Yet one functional pressure has been overlooked in such investigations: the uniform information density (UID) hypothesis, which holds that information should be spread evenly throughout an utterance. Here, we ask whether a pressure for UID may have influenced word order patterns cross-linguistically. To this end, we use computational models to test whether real orders lead to greater information uniformity than counterfactual orders. In our empirical study of 10 typologically diverse languages, we find that: (i) among SVO languages, real word orders consistently have greater uniformity than reverse word orders, and (ii) only linguistically implausible counterfactual orders consistently exceed the uniformity of real orders. These findings are compatible with a pressure for information uniformity in the development and usage of natural languages.