Estimating Long-term Heterogeneous Dose-response Curve: Generalization Bound Leveraging Optimal Transport Weights

Long-term causal effect estimation is a significant but challenging problem in many applications. Existing methods rely on ideal assumptions to estimate long-term average effects, e.g., no unobserved confounders or a binary treatment,while in numerous real-world applications, these assumptions could be violated and average effects are unable to provide individual-level suggestions.In this paper,we address a more general problem of estimating the long-term heterogeneous dose-response curve (HDRC) while accounting for unobserved confounders. Specifically, to remove unobserved confounding in observational data, we introduce an optimal transport weighting framework to align the observational data to the experimental data with theoretical guarantees. Furthermore,to accurately predict the heterogeneous effects of continuous treatment, we establish a generalization bound on counterfactual prediction error by leveraging the reweighted distribution induced by optimal transport. Finally, we develop an HDRC estimator building upon the above theoretical foundations. Extensive experimental studies conducted on multiple synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Doubly Robust Causal Effect Estimation under Networked Interference via Targeted Learning

Causal effect estimation under networked interference is an important but challenging problem. Available parametric methods are limited in their model space, while previous semiparametric methods, e.g., leveraging neural networks to fit only one single nuisance function, may still encounter misspecification problems under networked interference without appropriate assumptions on the data generation process. To mitigate bias stemming from misspecification, we propose a novel doubly robust causal effect estimator under networked interference, by adapting the targeted learning technique to the training of neural networks. Specifically, we generalize the targeted learning technique into the networked interference setting and establish the condition under which an estimator achieves double robustness. Based on the condition, we devise an end-to-end causal effect estimator by transforming the identified theoretical condition into a targeted loss. Moreover, we provide a theoretical analysis of our designed estimator, revealing a faster convergence rate compared to a single nuisance model. Extensive experimental results on two real-world networks with semisynthetic data demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed estimators.

Generalization bound for estimating causal effects from observational network data

Estimating causal effects from observational network data is a significant but challenging problem. Existing works in causal inference for observational network data lack an analysis of the generalization bound, which can theoretically provide support for alleviating the complex confounding bias and practically guide the design of learning objectives in a principled manner. To fill this gap, we derive a generalization bound for causal effect estimation in network scenarios by exploiting 1) the reweighting schema based on joint propensity score and 2) the representation learning schema based on Integral Probability Metric (IPM). We provide two perspectives on the generalization bound in terms of reweighting and representation learning, respectively. Motivated by the analysis of the bound, we propose a weighting regression method based on the joint propensity score augmented with representation learning. Extensive experimental studies on two real-world networks with semi-synthetic data demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm.

Long-term Causal Effects Estimation via Latent Surrogates Representation Learning

Estimating long-term causal effects based on short-term surrogates is a significant but challenging problem in many real-world applications, e.g., marketing and medicine. Despite its success in certain domains, most existing methods estimate causal effects in an idealistic and simplistic way - ignoring the causal structure among short-term outcomes and treating all of them as surrogates. However, such methods cannot be well applied to real-world scenarios, in which the partially observed surrogates are mixed with their proxies among short-term outcomes. To this end, we develop our flexible method, Laser, to estimate long-term causal effects in the more realistic situation that the surrogates are observed or have observed proxies.Given the indistinguishability between the surrogates and proxies, we utilize identifiable variational auto-encoder (iVAE) to recover the whole valid surrogates on all the surrogates candidates without the need of distinguishing the observed surrogates or the proxies of latent surrogates. With the help of the recovered surrogates, we further devise an unbiased estimation of long-term causal effects. Extensive experimental results on the real-world and semi-synthetic datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.