EVOQUANT: Self-Evolving Verifier-Guided Strategy Optimization for Robust Quantitative Trading

Quantitative strategy optimization remains largely manual, requiring domain experts to identify weak signals, tune risk-control rules, and repeatedly validate iterative revisions. Large language models can accelerate this process, but directly relying on them to rewrite trading strategies often introduces hallucinated edits, strategy drift, and backtest overfitting. We propose EVOQUANT, a self-Evolving Verifier-guided framework for strategy Optimization in Quantitative trading. Our method utilizes LLMs to deeply diagnose performance bottlenecks, generates semantically controlled candidate edits, selects the best strategy through a multi-stage verification pipeline, and distills optimization experience into reusable knowledge for continual self-improvement. We evaluate our method using seven representative strategies: four from the A-share market and three from the Crypto market. Experimental results show that our method significantly improves the Sharpe ratio across all tested strategies: the average test Sharpe increases from -0.298 to 0.538, and the best-performing strategy achieves a 199% relative improvement. Ablation studies and stress tests under stricter conditions further validate the effectiveness and robustness of the framework. Overall, this work transforms quantitative strategy optimization from costly manual trial and error into an automated and verifiable iterative paradigm, offering a new path for applying large language models to financial strategy research.

Can Agentic Trading Systems Pay for Their Own Intelligence?

Large language model (LLM) agents are increasingly used in trading systems, where model reasoning, tool use, and continual decisions incur costs that are expected to produce trading value. Existing evaluations typically report performance metrics, but rarely examine agentic viability: whether dynamic LLM-mediated decisions convert their induced costs into measurable incremental profit. To apply this criterion, we introduce TradeLens, a trace-grounded diagnostic toolkit for evaluating agentic trading systems from their trading records, runtime traces, and deployment configurations. It reconstructs trading trajectories, attributes profit and cost to interpretable evidence, and diagnoses whether and why an agent pays for its own intelligence. We conduct extensive analysis across backbone models, capital scales, trading frequencies, and system architectures, together with deployment discussion. Our results show that viability hinges on intelligence-to-profit conversion: models exhibit different failure patterns, such as poor asset selection in DeepSeek-V3.2 and negative timing in GLM-4.7, while capital scale, trading frequency, and architecture matter only by amplifying or degrading decision-attributed timing value. These findings reframe the evaluation of LLM-based trading agents from capability-centric performance ranking to trace-grounded diagnosis of intelligence-to-profit conversion. Our code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/TradeLens.

CSTrader: A Testbed for Language-Grounded Trading in a Community-Driven Virtual Asset Market

Niche asset markets, such as Counter-Strike 2 (CS2) weapon skins, are small, volatile, and heavily driven by community discussions and platform rules. These properties make them hard for traditional quantitative models, but provide an ideal testbed for studying how large language models (LLMs) turn unstructured text into trading actions. We present CSTrader, a multi-agent framework for language-grounded trading in the CS2 skin market. The system first integrates heterogeneous signals from various sources, then uses specialized agents for technical analysis, liquidity, events, and (reversed) sentiment, and finally applies risk control, transaction friction, and portfolio management agents to produce buy, sell, or hold decisions under realistic trading frictions. We build a live-like evaluation environment with real CS2 data from a highly volatile period and evaluate several recent LLM backbones. Across models, CSTrader consistently outperforms both a falling market index (-15.62%) and simple single-prompt LLM baselines, achieving up to a 7.58% cumulative return with controlled risk. Ablation studies show that liquidity, reversed sentiment, and transaction friction agents are crucial for turning noisy language signals into stable profits, suggesting that niche, language-driven markets are a useful benchmark for future language-to-action research. Code is available at: https://github.com/IatomicreactorI/CSGOTrading?tab=readme-ov-file#quick-start

TuneAhead: Predicting Fine-tuning Performance Before Full Training Begins

Fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) is compute-intensive and error-prone: model performance depends sensitively on data quality and hyperparameter choices, and naïve runs can even degrade model performance. This raises a practical question:can we predict fine-tuning performance before committing to a full training run? We present TUNEAHEAD, a lightweight framework for pre-hoc prediction of fine-tuning performance. TUNEAHEAD encodes each candidate run as a meta-feature vector that combines static dataset descriptors with dynamic probe features from a short standardized probe. A predictor maps these features to performance estimates, while SHAP-based attributions provide interpretable diagnostics that reveal which specific features drive the prediction. Across 1,300+ fine-tuning runs on Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct, TUNEAHEAD consistently outperforms strong baselines such as Early-Stop Extrapolation and ProxyLM. On a held-out test set of 370 runs, TUNEAHEAD achieves an RMSE of 1.47 percentage points and places 95.1% of predictions within +3/-3 percentage points of the true score. These accurate continuous predictions support practical go/no-go screening policies that can reduce unnecessary full fine-tuning while retaining most promising runs.

A Risk Decomposition Framework for Pre-Hoc Fine-Tuning Prediction

The high cost of fine-tuning LLMs poses a significant economic barrier; pre-hoc performance prediction offers a critical solution to substantially reduce this expense. However, the theoretical limits of pre-hoc performance prediction remain unexplored. We formulate it as a stochastic estimation problem under information constraints, decomposing prediction risk into two components: an intrinsic limit (static data-model compatibility) and a reducible optimization variance. We prove that optimization variance admits a necessary lower bound on its decay rate, implying fundamental constraints on how quickly uncertainty dissipates, regardless of the predictor used. Based on these dynamics, we derive a budget-optimal probing principle and introduce a predictability phase diagram that organizes tasks into three distinct regimes: Static-Sufficient, Dynamic-Critical, and Noise-Dominant. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world benchmarks validate these theoretical regimes and demonstrate the efficiency of our probing strategy.

AnnoRetrieve: Efficient Structured Retrieval for Unstructured Document Analysis

Unstructured documents dominate enterprise and web data, but their lack of explicit organization hinders precise information retrieval. Current mainstream retrieval methods, especially embedding-based vector search, rely on coarse-grained semantic similarity, incurring high computational cost and frequent LLM calls for post-processing. To address this critical issue, we propose AnnoRetrieve, a novel retrieval paradigm that shifts from embeddings to structured annotations, enabling precise, annotation-driven semantic retrieval. Our system replaces expensive vector comparisons with lightweight structured queries over automatically induced schemas, dramatically reducing LLM usage and overall cost. The system integrates two synergistic core innovations: SchemaBoot, which automatically generates document annotation schemas via multi-granularity pattern discovery and constraint-based optimization, laying a foundation for annotation-driven retrieval and eliminating manual schema design, and Structured Semantic Retrieval (SSR), the core retrieval engine, which unifies semantic understanding with structured query execution; by leveraging the annotated structure instead of vector embeddings, SSR achieves precise semantic matching, seamlessly completing attribute-value extraction, table generation, and progressive SQL-based reasoning without relying on LLM interventions. This annotation-driven paradigm overcomes the limitations of traditional vector-based methods with coarse-grained matching and heavy LLM dependency and graph-based methods with high computational overhead. Experiments on three real-world datasets confirm that AnnoRetrieve significantly lowers LLM call frequency and retrieval cost while maintaining high accuracy. AnnoRetrieve establishes a new paradigm for cost-effective, precise, and scalable document analysis through intelligent structuring.

TABQAWORLD: Optimizing Multimodal Reasoning for Multi-Turn Table Question Answering

Multimodal reasoning has emerged as a powerful framework for enhancing reasoning capabilities of reasoning models. While multi-turn table reasoning methods have improved reasoning accuracy through tool use and reward modeling, they rely on fixed text serialization for table state readouts. This introduces representation errors in table encoding that significantly accumulate over multiple turns. Such accumulation is alleviated by tabular grounding methods in the expense of inference compute and cost, rendering real world deployment impractical. To address this, we introduce TABQAWORLD, a table reasoning framework that jointly optimizes tabular action through representation and estimation. For representation, TABQAWORLD employs an action-conditioned multimodal selection policy, which dynamically switches between visual and textual representations to maximize table state readout reliability. For estimation, TABQAWORLD optimizes stepwise reasoning trajectory through table metadata including dimension, data types and key values, safely planning trajectory and compressing low-complexity actions to reduce conversation turns and latency. Designed as a training-free framework, empirical evaluations show that TABQAWORLD achieves state-of-the-art performance with 4.87% accuracy improvements over baselines, with 5.42% accuracy gain and 33.35% inference latency reduction over static settings, establishing a new standard for reliable and efficient table reasoning.

Long-Document QA with Chain-of-Structured-Thought and Fine-Tuned SLMs

Large language models (LLMs) are widely applied to data analytics over documents, yet direct reasoning over long, noisy documents remains brittle and error-prone. Hence, we study document question answering (QA) that consolidates dispersed evidence into a structured output (e.g., a table, graph, or chunks) to support reliable, verifiable QA. We propose a two-pillar framework, LiteCoST, to achieve both high accuracy and low latency with small language models (SLMs). Pillar 1: Chain-of-Structured-Thought (CoST). We introduce a CoST template, a schema-aware instruction that guides a strong LLM to produce both a step-wise CoST trace and the corresponding structured output. The process induces a minimal structure, normalizes entities/units, aligns records, serializes the output, and verifies/refines it, yielding auditable supervision. Pillar 2: SLM fine-tuning. The compact models are trained on LLM-generated CoST data in two stages: Supervised Fine-Tuning for structural alignment, followed by Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) incorporating triple rewards for answer/format quality and process consistency. By distilling structure-first behavior into SLMs, this approach achieves LLM-comparable quality on multi-domain long-document QA using 3B/7B SLMs, while delivering 2-4x lower latency than GPT-4o and DeepSeek-R1 (671B). The code is available at https://github.com/HKUSTDial/LiteCoST.

VLGOR: Visual-Language Knowledge Guided Offline Reinforcement Learning for Generalizable Agents

Combining Large Language Models (LLMs) with Reinforcement Learning (RL) enables agents to interpret language instructions more effectively for task execution. However, LLMs typically lack direct perception of the physical environment, which limits their understanding of environmental dynamics and their ability to generalize to unseen tasks. To address this limitation, we propose Visual-Language Knowledge-Guided Offline Reinforcement Learning (VLGOR), a framework that integrates visual and language knowledge to generate imaginary rollouts, thereby enriching the interaction data. The core premise of VLGOR is to fine-tune a vision-language model to predict future states and actions conditioned on an initial visual observation and high-level instructions, ensuring that the generated rollouts remain temporally coherent and spatially plausible. Furthermore, we employ counterfactual prompts to produce more diverse rollouts for offline RL training, enabling the agent to acquire knowledge that facilitates following language instructions while grounding in environments based on visual cues. Experiments on robotic manipulation benchmarks demonstrate that VLGOR significantly improves performance on unseen tasks requiring novel optimal policies, achieving a success rate over 24% higher than the baseline methods.

DocSage: An Information Structuring Agent for Multi-Doc Multi-Entity Question Answering

Multi-document Multi-entity Question Answering inherently demands models to track implicit logic between multiple entities across scattered documents. However, existing Large Language Models (LLMs) and Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) frameworks suffer from critical limitations: standard RAG's vector similarity-based coarse-grained retrieval often omits critical facts, graph-based RAG fails to efficiently integrate fragmented complex relationship networks, and both lack schema awareness, leading to inadequate cross-document evidence chain construction and inaccurate entity relationship deduction. To address these challenges, we propose DocSage, an end-to-end agentic framework that integrates dynamic schema discovery, structured information extraction, and schema-aware relational reasoning with error guarantees. DocSage operates through three core modules: (1) A schema discovery module dynamically infers query-specific minimal joinable schemas to capture essential entities and relationships; (2) An extraction module transforms unstructured text into semantically coherent relational tables, enhanced by error-aware correction mechanisms to reduce extraction errors; (3) A reasoning module performs multi-hop relational reasoning over structured tables, leveraging schema awareness to efficiently align cross-document entities and aggregate evidence. This agentic design offers three key advantages: precise fact localization via SQL-powered indexing, natural support for cross-document entity joins through relational tables, and mitigated LLM attention diffusion via structured representation. Evaluations on two MDMEQA benchmarks demonstrate that DocSage significantly outperforms state-of-the-art long-context LLMs and RAG systems, achieving more than 27% accuracy improvements respectively.