Scaling Laws Are Unreliable for Downstream Tasks: A Reality Check

Downstream scaling laws aim to predict task performance at larger scales from pretraining losses at smaller scales. Whether this prediction should be possible is unclear: some works demonstrate that task performance follows clear linear scaling trends under transformation, whereas others point out fundamental challenges to downstream scaling laws, such as emergence and inverse scaling. In this work, we conduct a meta-analysis of existing data on downstream scaling laws, finding that close fit to linear scaling laws only occurs in a minority of cases: 39% of the time. Furthermore, seemingly benign changes to the experimental setting can completely change the scaling trend. Our analysis underscores the need to understand the conditions under which scaling laws succeed. To fully model the relationship between pretraining loss and downstream task performance, we must embrace the cases in which scaling behavior deviates from linear trends.

Why Knowledge Distillation Works in Generative Models: A Minimal Working Explanation

Knowledge distillation (KD) is a core component in the training and deployment of modern generative models, particularly large language models (LLMs). While its empirical benefits are well documented--enabling smaller student models to emulate the performance of much larger teachers--the underlying mechanisms by which KD improves generative quality remain poorly understood. In this work, we present a minimal working explanation of KD in generative modeling. Using a controlled simulation with mixtures of Gaussians, we demonstrate that distillation induces a trade-off between precision and recall in the student model. As the teacher distribution becomes more selective, the student concentrates more probability mass on high-likelihood regions at the expense of coverage--a behavior modulated by a single entropy-controlling parameter. We then validate this effect in a large-scale language modeling setup using the SmolLM2 family of models. Empirical results reveal the same precision-recall dynamics observed in simulation, where precision corresponds to sample quality and recall to distributional coverage. This precision-recall trade-off proves especially beneficial in scenarios where sample quality outweighs diversity, such as instruction tuning or downstream generation. Our analysis provides a simple and general explanation for the effectiveness of KD in generative modeling.

Machine Learning: a Lecture Note

This lecture note is intended to prepare early-year master's and PhD students in data science or a related discipline with foundational ideas in machine learning. It starts with basic ideas in modern machine learning with classification as a main target task. These basic ideas include loss formulation, backpropagation, stochastic gradient descent, generalization, model selection as well as fundamental blocks of artificial neural networks. Based on these basic ideas, the lecture note explores in depth the probablistic approach to unsupervised learning, covering directed latent variable models, product of experts, generative adversarial networks and autoregressive models. Finally, the note ends by covering a diverse set of further topics, such as reinforcement learning, ensemble methods and meta-learning. After reading this lecture note, a student should be ready to embark on studying and researching more advanced topics in machine learning and more broadly artificial intelligence.

RAGEN: Understanding Self-Evolution in LLM Agents via Multi-Turn Reinforcement Learning

Training large language models (LLMs) as interactive agents presents unique challenges including long-horizon decision making and interacting with stochastic environment feedback. While reinforcement learning (RL) has enabled progress in static tasks, multi-turn agent RL training remains underexplored. We propose StarPO (State-Thinking-Actions-Reward Policy Optimization), a general framework for trajectory-level agent RL, and introduce RAGEN, a modular system for training and evaluating LLM agents. Our study on three stylized environments reveals three core findings. First, our agent RL training shows a recurring mode of Echo Trap where reward variance cliffs and gradient spikes; we address this with StarPO-S, a stabilized variant with trajectory filtering, critic incorporation, and decoupled clipping. Second, we find the shaping of RL rollouts would benefit from diverse initial states, medium interaction granularity and more frequent sampling. Third, we show that without fine-grained, reasoning-aware reward signals, agent reasoning hardly emerge through multi-turn RL and they may show shallow strategies or hallucinated thoughts. Code and environments are available at https://github.com/RAGEN-AI/RAGEN.

Black Box Causal Inference: Effect Estimation via Meta Prediction

Causal inference and the estimation of causal effects plays a central role in decision-making across many areas, including healthcare and economics. Estimating causal effects typically requires an estimator that is tailored to each problem of interest. But developing estimators can take significant effort for even a single causal inference setting. For example, algorithms for regression-based estimators, propensity score methods, and doubly robust methods were designed across several decades to handle causal estimation with observed confounders. Similarly, several estimators have been developed to exploit instrumental variables (IVs), including two-stage least-squares (TSLS), control functions, and the method-of-moments. In this work, we instead frame causal inference as a dataset-level prediction problem, offloading algorithm design to the learning process. The approach we introduce, called black box causal inference (BBCI), builds estimators in a black-box manner by learning to predict causal effects from sampled dataset-effect pairs. We demonstrate accurate estimation of average treatment effects (ATEs) and conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) with BBCI across several causal inference problems with known identification, including problems with less developed estimators.

An Overview of Large Language Models for Statisticians

Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as transformative tools in artificial intelligence (AI), exhibiting remarkable capabilities across diverse tasks such as text generation, reasoning, and decision-making. While their success has primarily been driven by advances in computational power and deep learning architectures, emerging problems -- in areas such as uncertainty quantification, decision-making, causal inference, and distribution shift -- require a deeper engagement with the field of statistics. This paper explores potential areas where statisticians can make important contributions to the development of LLMs, particularly those that aim to engender trustworthiness and transparency for human users. Thus, we focus on issues such as uncertainty quantification, interpretability, fairness, privacy, watermarking and model adaptation. We also consider possible roles for LLMs in statistical analysis. By bridging AI and statistics, we aim to foster a deeper collaboration that advances both the theoretical foundations and practical applications of LLMs, ultimately shaping their role in addressing complex societal challenges.

Meta-Statistical Learning: Supervised Learning of Statistical Inference

This work demonstrates that the tools and principles driving the success of large language models (LLMs) can be repurposed to tackle distribution-level tasks, where the goal is to predict properties of the data-generating distribution rather than labels for individual datapoints. These tasks encompass statistical inference problems such as parameter estimation, hypothesis testing, or mutual information estimation. Framing these tasks within traditional machine learning pipelines is challenging, as supervision is typically tied to individual datapoint. We propose meta-statistical learning, a framework inspired by multi-instance learning that reformulates statistical inference tasks as supervised learning problems. In this approach, entire datasets are treated as single inputs to neural networks, which predict distribution-level parameters. Transformer-based architectures, without positional encoding, provide a natural fit due to their permutation-invariance properties. By training on large-scale synthetic datasets, meta-statistical models can leverage the scalability and optimization infrastructure of Transformer-based LLMs. We demonstrate the framework's versatility with applications in hypothesis testing and mutual information estimation, showing strong performance, particularly for small datasets where traditional neural methods struggle.

NaturalReasoning: Reasoning in the Wild with 2.8M Challenging Questions

Scaling reasoning capabilities beyond traditional domains such as math and coding is hindered by the lack of diverse and high-quality questions. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a scalable approach for generating diverse and challenging reasoning questions, accompanied by reference answers. We present NaturalReasoning, a comprehensive dataset comprising 2.8 million questions that span multiple domains, including STEM fields (e.g., Physics, Computer Science), Economics, Social Sciences, and more. We demonstrate the utility of the questions in NaturalReasoning through knowledge distillation experiments which show that NaturalReasoning can effectively elicit and transfer reasoning capabilities from a strong teacher model. Furthermore, we demonstrate that NaturalReasoning is also effective for unsupervised self-training using external reward models or self-rewarding.

Cost-Efficient Continual Learning with Sufficient Exemplar Memory

Continual learning (CL) research typically assumes highly constrained exemplar memory resources. However, in many real-world scenarios-especially in the era of large foundation models-memory is abundant, while GPU computational costs are the primary bottleneck. In this work, we investigate CL in a novel setting where exemplar memory is ample (i.e., sufficient exemplar memory). Unlike prior methods designed for strict exemplar memory constraints, we propose a simple yet effective approach that directly operates in the model's weight space through a combination of weight resetting and averaging techniques. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance while reducing the computational cost to a quarter or third of existing methods. These findings challenge conventional CL assumptions and provide a practical baseline for computationally efficient CL applications.

The Geometry of Prompting: Unveiling Distinct Mechanisms of Task Adaptation in Language Models

Decoder-only language models have the ability to dynamically switch between various computational tasks based on input prompts. Despite many successful applications of prompting, there is very limited understanding of the internal mechanism behind such flexibility. In this work, we investigate how different prompting methods affect the geometry of representations in these models. Employing a framework grounded in statistical physics, we reveal that various prompting techniques, while achieving similar performance, operate through distinct representational mechanisms for task adaptation. Our analysis highlights the critical role of input distribution samples and label semantics in few-shot in-context learning. We also demonstrate evidence of synergistic and interfering interactions between different tasks on the representational level. Our work contributes to the theoretical understanding of large language models and lays the groundwork for developing more effective, representation-aware prompting strategies.