Diagnosing Generalization Failures from Representational Geometry Markers

Generalization, the ability to perform well beyond the training context, is a hallmark of biological and artificial intelligence, yet anticipating unseen failures remains a central challenge. Conventional approaches often take a ``bottom-up'' mechanistic route by reverse-engineering interpretable features or circuits to build explanatory models. While insightful, these methods often struggle to provide the high-level, predictive signals for anticipating failure in real-world deployment. Here, we propose using a ``top-down'' approach to studying generalization failures inspired by medical biomarkers: identifying system-level measurements that serve as robust indicators of a model's future performance. Rather than mapping out detailed internal mechanisms, we systematically design and test network markers to probe structure, function links, identify prognostic indicators, and validate predictions in real-world settings. In image classification, we find that task-relevant geometric properties of in-distribution (ID) object manifolds consistently forecast poor out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization. In particular, reductions in two geometric measures, effective manifold dimensionality and utility, predict weaker OOD performance across diverse architectures, optimizers, and datasets. We apply this finding to transfer learning with ImageNet-pretrained models. We consistently find that the same geometric patterns predict OOD transfer performance more reliably than ID accuracy. This work demonstrates that representational geometry can expose hidden vulnerabilities, offering more robust guidance for model selection and AI interpretability.

The Geometry of Prompting: Unveiling Distinct Mechanisms of Task Adaptation in Language Models

Decoder-only language models have the ability to dynamically switch between various computational tasks based on input prompts. Despite many successful applications of prompting, there is very limited understanding of the internal mechanism behind such flexibility. In this work, we investigate how different prompting methods affect the geometry of representations in these models. Employing a framework grounded in statistical physics, we reveal that various prompting techniques, while achieving similar performance, operate through distinct representational mechanisms for task adaptation. Our analysis highlights the critical role of input distribution samples and label semantics in few-shot in-context learning. We also demonstrate evidence of synergistic and interfering interactions between different tasks on the representational level. Our work contributes to the theoretical understanding of large language models and lays the groundwork for developing more effective, representation-aware prompting strategies.