Certainly Uncertain: A Benchmark and Metric for Multimodal Epistemic and Aleatoric Awareness

The ability to acknowledge the inevitable uncertainty in their knowledge and reasoning is a prerequisite for AI systems to be truly truthful and reliable. In this paper, we present a taxonomy of uncertainty specific to vision-language AI systems, distinguishing between epistemic uncertainty (arising from a lack of information) and aleatoric uncertainty (due to inherent unpredictability), and further explore finer categories within. Based on this taxonomy, we synthesize a benchmark dataset, CertainlyUncertain, featuring 178K visual question answering (VQA) samples as contrastive pairs. This is achieved by 1) inpainting images to make previously answerable questions into unanswerable ones; and 2) using image captions to prompt large language models for both answerable and unanswerable questions. Additionally, we introduce a new metric confidence-weighted accuracy, that is well correlated with both accuracy and calibration error, to address the shortcomings of existing metrics.

Selective "Selective Prediction": Reducing Unnecessary Abstention in Vision-Language Reasoning

Prior work on selective prediction minimizes incorrect predictions from vision-language models (VLMs) by allowing them to abstain from answering when uncertain. However, when deploying a vision-language system with low tolerance for inaccurate predictions, selective prediction may be over-cautious and abstain too frequently, even on many correct predictions. We introduce ReCoVERR, an inference-time algorithm to reduce the over-abstention of a selective vision-language system without decreasing prediction accuracy. When the VLM makes a low-confidence prediction, instead of abstaining ReCoVERR tries to find relevant clues in the image that provide additional evidence for the prediction. ReCoVERR uses an LLM to pose related questions to the VLM, collects high-confidence evidences, and if enough evidence confirms the prediction the system makes a prediction instead of abstaining. ReCoVERR enables two VLMs, BLIP2 and InstructBLIP, to answer up to 20% more questions on the A-OKVQA task than vanilla selective prediction without decreasing system accuracy, thus improving overall system reliability.

OLMo: Accelerating the Science of Language Models

Language models (LMs) have become ubiquitous in both NLP research and in commercial product offerings. As their commercial importance has surged, the most powerful models have become closed off, gated behind proprietary interfaces, with important details of their training data, architectures, and development undisclosed. Given the importance of these details in scientifically studying these models, including their biases and potential risks, we believe it is essential for the research community to have access to powerful, truly open LMs. To this end, this technical report details the first release of OLMo, a state-of-the-art, truly Open Language Model and its framework to build and study the science of language modeling. Unlike most prior efforts that have only released model weights and inference code, we release OLMo and the whole framework, including training data and training and evaluation code. We hope this release will empower and strengthen the open research community and inspire a new wave of innovation.

Deal, or no deal ? Forecasting Uncertainty in Conversations using Large Language Models

Effective interlocutors account for the uncertain goals, beliefs, and emotions of others. But even the best human conversationalist cannot perfectly anticipate the trajectory of a dialogue. How well can language models represent inherent uncertainty in conversations? We propose FortUne Dial, an expansion of the long-standing "conversation forecasting" task: instead of just accuracy, evaluation is conducted with uncertainty-aware metrics, effectively enabling abstention on individual instances. We study two ways in which language models potentially represent outcome uncertainty (internally, using scores and directly, using tokens) and propose fine-tuning strategies to improve calibration of both representations. Experiments on eight difficult negotiation corpora demonstrate that our proposed fine-tuning strategies (a traditional supervision strategy and an off-policy reinforcement learning strategy) can calibrate smaller open-source models to compete with pre-trained models 10x their size.

Localized Symbolic Knowledge Distillation for Visual Commonsense Models

Instruction following vision-language (VL) models offer a flexible interface that supports a broad range of multimodal tasks in a zero-shot fashion. However, interfaces that operate on full images do not directly enable the user to "point to" and access specific regions within images. This capability is important not only to support reference-grounded VL benchmarks, but also, for practical applications that require precise within-image reasoning. We build Localized Visual Commonsense models, which allow users to specify (multiple) regions as input. We train our model by sampling localized commonsense knowledge from a large language model (LLM): specifically, we prompt an LLM to collect commonsense knowledge given a global literal image description and a local literal region description automatically generated by a set of VL models. With a separately trained critic model that selects high-quality examples, we find that training on the localized commonsense corpus can successfully distill existing VL models to support a reference-as-input interface. Empirical results and human evaluations in a zero-shot setup demonstrate that our distillation method results in more precise VL models of reasoning compared to a baseline of passing a generated referring expression to an LLM.

How Far Can Camels Go? Exploring the State of Instruction Tuning on Open Resources

In this work we explore recent advances in instruction-tuning language models on a range of open instruction-following datasets. Despite recent claims that open models can be on par with state-of-the-art proprietary models, these claims are often accompanied by limited evaluation, making it difficult to compare models across the board and determine the utility of various resources. We provide a large set of instruction-tuned models from 6.7B to 65B parameters in size, trained on 12 instruction datasets ranging from manually curated (e.g., OpenAssistant) to synthetic and distilled (e.g., Alpaca) and systematically evaluate them on their factual knowledge, reasoning, multilinguality, coding, and open-ended instruction following abilities through a collection of automatic, model-based, and human-based metrics. We further introduce T\"ulu, our best performing instruction-tuned model suite finetuned on a combination of high-quality open resources. Our experiments show that different instruction-tuning datasets can uncover or enhance specific skills, while no single dataset (or combination) provides the best performance across all evaluations. Interestingly, we find that model and human preference-based evaluations fail to reflect differences in model capabilities exposed by benchmark-based evaluations, suggesting the need for the type of systemic evaluation performed in this work. Our evaluations show that the best model in any given evaluation reaches on average 83% of ChatGPT performance, and 68% of GPT-4 performance, suggesting that further investment in building better base models and instruction-tuning data is required to close the gap. We release our instruction-tuned models, including a fully finetuned 65B T\"ulu, along with our code, data, and evaluation framework at https://github.com/allenai/open-instruct to facilitate future research.

Continual Dialogue State Tracking via Example-Guided Question Answering

Dialogue systems are frequently updated to accommodate new services, but naively updating them by continually training with data for new services in diminishing performance on previously learnt services. Motivated by the insight that dialogue state tracking (DST), a crucial component of dialogue systems that estimates the user's goal as a conversation proceeds, is a simple natural language understanding task, we propose reformulating it as a bundle of granular example-guided question answering tasks to minimize the task shift between services and thus benefit continual learning. Our approach alleviates service-specific memorization and teaches a model to contextualize the given question and example to extract the necessary information from the conversation. We find that a model with just 60M parameters can achieve a significant boost by learning to learn from in-context examples retrieved by a retriever trained to identify turns with similar dialogue state changes. Combining our method with dialogue-level memory replay, our approach attains state of the art performance on DST continual learning metrics without relying on any complex regularization or parameter expansion methods.

Curriculum Script Distillation for Multilingual Visual Question Answering

Pre-trained models with dual and cross encoders have shown remarkable success in propelling the landscape of several tasks in vision and language in Visual Question Answering (VQA). However, since they are limited by the requirements of gold annotated data, most of these advancements do not see the light of day in other languages beyond English. We aim to address this problem by introducing a curriculum based on the source and target language translations to finetune the pre-trained models for the downstream task. Experimental results demonstrate that script plays a vital role in the performance of these models. Specifically, we show that target languages that share the same script perform better (~6%) than other languages and mixed-script code-switched languages perform better than their counterparts (~5-12%).

Multilingual Multimodality: A Taxonomical Survey of Datasets, Techniques, Challenges and Opportunities

Contextualizing language technologies beyond a single language kindled embracing multiple modalities and languages. Individually, each of these directions undoubtedly proliferated into several NLP tasks. Despite this momentum, most of the multimodal research is primarily centered around English and multilingual research is primarily centered around contexts from text modality. Challenging this conventional setup, researchers studied the unification of multilingual and multimodal (MultiX) streams. The main goal of this work is to catalogue and characterize these works by charting out the categories of tasks, datasets and methods to address MultiX scenarios. To this end, we review the languages studied, gold or silver data with parallel annotations, and understand how these modalities and languages interact in modeling. We present an account of the modeling approaches along with their strengths and weaknesses to better understand what scenarios they can be used reliably. Following this, we present the high-level trends in the overall paradigm of the field. Finally, we conclude by presenting a road map of challenges and promising research directions.

GEMv2: Multilingual NLG Benchmarking in a Single Line of Code

Evaluation in machine learning is usually informed by past choices, for example which datasets or metrics to use. This standardization enables the comparison on equal footing using leaderboards, but the evaluation choices become sub-optimal as better alternatives arise. This problem is especially pertinent in natural language generation which requires ever-improving suites of datasets, metrics, and human evaluation to make definitive claims. To make following best model evaluation practices easier, we introduce GEMv2. The new version of the Generation, Evaluation, and Metrics Benchmark introduces a modular infrastructure for dataset, model, and metric developers to benefit from each others work. GEMv2 supports 40 documented datasets in 51 languages. Models for all datasets can be evaluated online and our interactive data card creation and rendering tools make it easier to add new datasets to the living benchmark.