Learning Alternative Ways of Performing a Task

A common way of learning to perform a task is to observe how it is carried out by experts. However, it is well known that for most tasks there is no unique way to perform them. This is especially noticeable the more complex the task is because factors such as the skill or the know-how of the expert may well affect the way she solves the task. In addition, learning from experts also suffers of having a small set of training examples generally coming from several experts (since experts are usually a limited and expensive resource), being all of them positive examples (i.e. examples that represent successful executions of the task). Traditional machine learning techniques are not useful in such scenarios, as they require extensive training data. Starting from very few executions of the task presented as activity sequences, we introduce a novel inductive approach for learning multiple models, with each one representing an alternative strategy of performing a task. By an iterative process based on generalisation and specialisation, we learn the underlying patterns that capture the different styles of performing a task exhibited by the examples. We illustrate our approach on two common activity recognition tasks: a surgical skills training task and a cooking domain. We evaluate the inferred models with respect to two metrics that measure how well the models represent the examples and capture the different forms of executing a task showed by the examples. We compare our results with the traditional process mining approach and show that a small set of meaningful examples is enough to obtain patterns that capture the different strategies that are followed to solve the tasks.

Animal-AI 3: What's New & Why You Should Care

The Animal-AI Environment is a unique game-based research platform designed to serve both the artificial intelligence and cognitive science research communities. In this paper, we present Animal-AI 3, the latest version of the environment, outlining several major new features that make the game more engaging for humans and more complex for AI systems. New features include interactive buttons, reward dispensers, and player notifications, as well as an overhaul of the environment's graphics and processing for significant increases in agent training time and quality of the human player experience. We provide detailed guidance on how to build computational and behavioural experiments with Animal-AI 3. We present results from a series of agents, including the state-of-the-art Deep Reinforcement Learning agent (dreamer-v3), on newly designed tests and the Animal-AI Testbed of 900 tasks inspired by research in comparative psychology. Animal-AI 3 is designed to facilitate collaboration between the cognitive sciences and artificial intelligence. This paper serves as a stand-alone document that motivates, describes, and demonstrates Animal-AI 3 for the end user.

An International Consortium for Evaluations of Societal-Scale Risks from Advanced AI

Given rapid progress toward advanced AI and risks from frontier AI systems (advanced AI systems pushing the boundaries of the AI capabilities frontier), the creation and implementation of AI governance and regulatory schemes deserves prioritization and substantial investment. However, the status quo is untenable and, frankly, dangerous. A regulatory gap has permitted AI labs to conduct research, development, and deployment activities with minimal oversight. In response, frontier AI system evaluations have been proposed as a way of assessing risks from the development and deployment of frontier AI systems. Yet, the budding AI risk evaluation ecosystem faces significant coordination challenges, such as a limited diversity of evaluators, suboptimal allocation of effort, and perverse incentives. This paper proposes a solution in the form of an international consortium for AI risk evaluations, comprising both AI developers and third-party AI risk evaluators. Such a consortium could play a critical role in international efforts to mitigate societal-scale risks from advanced AI, including in managing responsible scaling policies and coordinated evaluation-based risk response. In this paper, we discuss the current evaluation ecosystem and its shortcomings, propose an international consortium for advanced AI risk evaluations, discuss issues regarding its implementation, discuss lessons that can be learnt from previous international institutions and existing proposals for international AI governance institutions, and, finally, we recommend concrete steps to advance the establishment of the proposed consortium: (i) solicit feedback from stakeholders, (ii) conduct additional research, (iii) conduct a workshop(s) for stakeholders, (iv) analyze feedback and create final proposal, (v) solicit funding, and (vi) create a consortium.

Predictable Artificial Intelligence

We introduce the fundamental ideas and challenges of Predictable AI, a nascent research area that explores the ways in which we can anticipate key indicators of present and future AI ecosystems. We argue that achieving predictability is crucial for fostering trust, liability, control, alignment and safety of AI ecosystems, and thus should be prioritised over performance. While distinctive from other areas of technical and non-technical AI research, the questions, hypotheses and challenges relevant to Predictable AI were yet to be clearly described. This paper aims to elucidate them, calls for identifying paths towards AI predictability and outlines the potential impact of this emergent field.

Inferring Capabilities from Task Performance with Bayesian Triangulation

As machine learning models become more general, we need to characterise them in richer, more meaningful ways. We describe a method to infer the cognitive profile of a system from diverse experimental data. To do so, we introduce measurement layouts that model how task-instance features interact with system capabilities to affect performance. These features must be triangulated in complex ways to be able to infer capabilities from non-populational data -- a challenge for traditional psychometric and inferential tools. Using the Bayesian probabilistic programming library PyMC, we infer different cognitive profiles for agents in two scenarios: 68 actual contestants in the AnimalAI Olympics and 30 synthetic agents for O-PIAAGETS, an object permanence battery. We showcase the potential for capability-oriented evaluation.

Compute and Energy Consumption Trends in Deep Learning Inference

The progress of some AI paradigms such as deep learning is said to be linked to an exponential growth in the number of parameters. There are many studies corroborating these trends, but does this translate into an exponential increase in energy consumption? In order to answer this question we focus on inference costs rather than training costs, as the former account for most of the computing effort, solely because of the multiplicative factors. Also, apart from algorithmic innovations, we account for more specific and powerful hardware (leading to higher FLOPS) that is usually accompanied with important energy efficiency optimisations. We also move the focus from the first implementation of a breakthrough paper towards the consolidated version of the techniques one or two year later. Under this distinctive and comprehensive perspective, we study relevant models in the areas of computer vision and natural language processing: for a sustained increase in performance we see a much softer growth in energy consumption than previously anticipated. The only caveat is, yet again, the multiplicative factor, as future AI increases penetration and becomes more pervasive.

Conditional Teaching Size

Recent research in machine teaching has explored the instruction of any concept expressed in a universal language. In this compositional context, new experimental results have shown that there exist data teaching sets surprisingly shorter than the concept description itself. However, there exists a bound for those remarkable experimental findings through teaching size and concept complexity that we further explore here. As concepts are rarely taught in isolation we investigate the best configuration of concepts to teach a given set of concepts, where those that have been acquired first can be reused for the description of new ones. This new notion of conditional teaching size uncovers new insights, such as the interposition phenomenon: certain prior knowledge generates simpler compatible concepts that increase the teaching size of the concept that we want to teach. This does not happen for conditional Kolmogorov complexity. Furthermore, we provide an algorithm that constructs optimal curricula based on interposition avoidance. This paper presents a series of theoretical results, including their proofs, and some directions for future work. New research possibilities in curriculum teaching in compositional scenarios are now wide open to exploration.

Automating Data Science: Prospects and Challenges

Given the complexity of typical data science projects and the associated demand for human expertise, automation has the potential to transform the data science process. Key insights: * Automation in data science aims to facilitate and transform the work of data scientists, not to replace them. * Important parts of data science are already being automated, especially in the modeling stages, where techniques such as automated machine learning (AutoML) are gaining traction. * Other aspects are harder to automate, not only because of technological challenges, but because open-ended and context-dependent tasks require human interaction.