Predictability Shapes Adaptation: An Evolutionary Perspective on Modes of Learning in Transformers

Transformer models learn in two distinct modes: in-weights learning (IWL), encoding knowledge into model weights, and in-context learning (ICL), adapting flexibly to context without weight modification. To better understand the interplay between these learning modes, we draw inspiration from evolutionary biology's analogous adaptive strategies: genetic encoding (akin to IWL, adapting over generations and fixed within an individual's lifetime) and phenotypic plasticity (akin to ICL, enabling flexible behavioral responses to environmental cues). In evolutionary biology, environmental predictability dictates the balance between these strategies: stability favors genetic encoding, while reliable predictive cues promote phenotypic plasticity. We experimentally operationalize these dimensions of predictability and systematically investigate their influence on the ICL/IWL balance in Transformers. Using regression and classification tasks, we show that high environmental stability decisively favors IWL, as predicted, with a sharp transition at maximal stability. Conversely, high cue reliability enhances ICL efficacy, particularly when stability is low. Furthermore, learning dynamics reveal task-contingent temporal evolution: while a canonical ICL-to-IWL shift occurs in some settings (e.g., classification with many classes), we demonstrate that scenarios with easier IWL (e.g., fewer classes) or slower ICL acquisition (e.g., regression) can exhibit an initial IWL phase later yielding to ICL dominance. These findings support a relative-cost hypothesis for explaining these learning mode transitions, establishing predictability as a critical factor governing adaptive strategies in Transformers, and offering novel insights for understanding ICL and guiding training methodologies.

Recovering Event Probabilities from Large Language Model Embeddings via Axiomatic Constraints

Rational decision-making under uncertainty requires coherent degrees of belief in events. However, event probabilities generated by Large Language Models (LLMs) have been shown to exhibit incoherence, violating the axioms of probability theory. This raises the question of whether coherent event probabilities can be recovered from the embeddings used by the models. If so, those derived probabilities could be used as more accurate estimates in events involving uncertainty. To explore this question, we propose enforcing axiomatic constraints, such as the additive rule of probability theory, in the latent space learned by an extended variational autoencoder (VAE) applied to LLM embeddings. This approach enables event probabilities to naturally emerge in the latent space as the VAE learns to both reconstruct the original embeddings and predict the embeddings of semantically related events. We evaluate our method on complementary events (i.e., event A and its complement, event not-A), where the true probabilities of the two events must sum to 1. Experiment results on open-weight language models demonstrate that probabilities recovered from embeddings exhibit greater coherence than those directly reported by the corresponding models and align closely with the true probabilities.

Toward Efficient Exploration by Large Language Model Agents

A burgeoning area within reinforcement learning (RL) is the design of sequential decision-making agents centered around large language models (LLMs). While autonomous decision-making agents powered by modern LLMs could facilitate numerous real-world applications, such successes demand agents that are capable of data-efficient RL. One key obstacle to achieving data efficiency in RL is exploration, a challenge that we demonstrate many recent proposals for LLM agent designs struggle to contend with. Meanwhile, classic algorithms from the RL literature known to gracefully address exploration require technical machinery that can be challenging to operationalize in purely natural language settings. In this work, rather than relying on finetuning or in-context learning to coax LLMs into implicitly imitating a RL algorithm, we illustrate how LLMs can be used to explicitly implement an existing RL algorithm (Posterior Sampling for Reinforcement Learning) whose capacity for statistically-efficient exploration is already well-studied. We offer empirical results demonstrating how our LLM-based implementation of a known, data-efficient RL algorithm can be considerably more effective in natural language tasks that demand prudent exploration.

Identifying and Mitigating the Influence of the Prior Distribution in Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) sometimes fail to respond appropriately to deterministic tasks -- such as counting or forming acronyms -- because the implicit prior distribution they have learned over sequences of tokens influences their responses. In this work, we show that, in at least some cases, LLMs actually compute the information needed to perform these tasks correctly, and we identify some interventions that can allow them to access this information to improve their performance. First, we show that simply prompting the language model to not rely on its prior knowledge leads to dramatic improvements in prior-dominated tasks. We then use mechanistic interpretability techniques to localize the prior within the LLM and manipulate the extent to which that prior influences its responses. Specifically, we show that it is possible to identify layers of the underlying neural network that correlate with the prior probability of a response and that lightweight finetuning of these layers with basic prompts on prior-dominated tasks achieves high performance on held-out answers. These results suggest that the information required to produce a correct response is contained within the representations of the problems formed by the models. Furthermore, we show that this finetuning is significantly more effective for prior-dominated tasks, and that the error after finetuning is no longer correlated with the prior. Our results suggest that it may be possible to define effective methods for manipulating the extent to which LLMs rely upon their priors in solving problems, potentially increasing their performance in settings where LLMs hallucinate for reasons related to the prior probability of token sequences.

Localized Cultural Knowledge is Conserved and Controllable in Large Language Models

Just as humans display language patterns influenced by their native tongue when speaking new languages, LLMs often default to English-centric responses even when generating in other languages. Nevertheless, we observe that local cultural information persists within the models and can be readily activated for cultural customization. We first demonstrate that explicitly providing cultural context in prompts significantly improves the models' ability to generate culturally localized responses. We term the disparity in model performance with versus without explicit cultural context the explicit-implicit localization gap, indicating that while cultural knowledge exists within LLMs, it may not naturally surface in multilingual interactions if cultural context is not explicitly provided. Despite the explicit prompting benefit, however, the answers reduce in diversity and tend toward stereotypes. Second, we identify an explicit cultural customization vector, conserved across all non-English languages we explore, which enables LLMs to be steered from the synthetic English cultural world-model toward each non-English cultural world. Steered responses retain the diversity of implicit prompting and reduce stereotypes to dramatically improve the potential for customization. We discuss the implications of explicit cultural customization for understanding the conservation of alternative cultural world models within LLMs, and their controllable utility for translation, cultural customization, and the possibility of making the explicit implicit through soft control for expanded LLM function and appeal.

Convolutional Neural Networks Can (Meta-)Learn the Same-Different Relation

While convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have come to match and exceed human performance in many settings, the tasks these models optimize for are largely constrained to the level of individual objects, such as classification and captioning. Humans remain vastly superior to CNNs in visual tasks involving relations, including the ability to identify two objects as `same' or `different'. A number of studies have shown that while CNNs can be coaxed into learning the same-different relation in some settings, they tend to generalize poorly to other instances of this relation. In this work we show that the same CNN architectures that fail to generalize the same-different relation with conventional training are able to succeed when trained via meta-learning, which explicitly encourages abstraction and generalization across tasks.

Predicting Multi-Agent Specialization via Task Parallelizability

Multi-agent systems often rely on specialized agents with distinct roles rather than general-purpose agents that perform the entire task independently. However, the conditions that govern the optimal degree of specialization remain poorly understood. In this work, we propose that specialist teams outperform generalist ones when environmental constraints limit task parallelizability -- the potential to execute task components concurrently. Drawing inspiration from distributed systems, we introduce a heuristic to predict the relative efficiency of generalist versus specialist teams by estimating the speed-up achieved when two agents perform a task in parallel rather than focus on complementary subtasks. We validate this heuristic through three multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) experiments in Overcooked-AI, demonstrating that key factors limiting task parallelizability influence specialization. We also observe that as the state space expands, agents tend to converge on specialist strategies, even when generalist ones are theoretically more efficient, highlighting potential biases in MARL training algorithms. Our findings provide a principled framework for interpreting specialization given the task and environment, and introduce a novel benchmark for evaluating whether MARL finds optimal strategies.

Using the Tools of Cognitive Science to Understand Large Language Models at Different Levels of Analysis

Modern artificial intelligence systems, such as large language models, are increasingly powerful but also increasingly hard to understand. Recognizing this problem as analogous to the historical difficulties in understanding the human mind, we argue that methods developed in cognitive science can be useful for understanding large language models. We propose a framework for applying these methods based on Marr's three levels of analysis. By revisiting established cognitive science techniques relevant to each level and illustrating their potential to yield insights into the behavior and internal organization of large language models, we aim to provide a toolkit for making sense of these new kinds of minds.

On Benchmarking Human-Like Intelligence in Machines

Recent benchmark studies have claimed that AI has approached or even surpassed human-level performances on various cognitive tasks. However, this position paper argues that current AI evaluation paradigms are insufficient for assessing human-like cognitive capabilities. We identify a set of key shortcomings: a lack of human-validated labels, inadequate representation of human response variability and uncertainty, and reliance on simplified and ecologically-invalid tasks. We support our claims by conducting a human evaluation study on ten existing AI benchmarks, suggesting significant biases and flaws in task and label designs. To address these limitations, we propose five concrete recommendations for developing future benchmarks that will enable more rigorous and meaningful evaluations of human-like cognitive capacities in AI with various implications for such AI applications.

Teasing Apart Architecture and Initial Weights as Sources of Inductive Bias in Neural Networks

Artificial neural networks can acquire many aspects of human knowledge from data, making them promising as models of human learning. But what those networks can learn depends upon their inductive biases -- the factors other than the data that influence the solutions they discover -- and the inductive biases of neural networks remain poorly understood, limiting our ability to draw conclusions about human learning from the performance of these systems. Cognitive scientists and machine learning researchers often focus on the architecture of a neural network as a source of inductive bias. In this paper we explore the impact of another source of inductive bias -- the initial weights of the network -- using meta-learning as a tool for finding initial weights that are adapted for specific problems. We evaluate four widely-used architectures -- MLPs, CNNs, LSTMs, and Transformers -- by meta-training 430 different models across three tasks requiring different biases and forms of generalization. We find that meta-learning can substantially reduce or entirely eliminate performance differences across architectures and data representations, suggesting that these factors may be less important as sources of inductive bias than is typically assumed. When differences are present, architectures and data representations that perform well without meta-learning tend to meta-train more effectively. Moreover, all architectures generalize poorly on problems that are far from their meta-training experience, underscoring the need for stronger inductive biases for robust generalization.