Hidden State Variability of Pretrained Language Models Can Guide Computation Reduction for Transfer Learning

While transferring a pretrained language model, common approaches conventionally attach their task-specific classifiers to the top layer and adapt all the pretrained layers. We investigate whether one could make a task-specific selection on which subset of the layers to adapt and where to place the classifier. The goal is to reduce the computation cost of transfer learning methods (e.g. fine-tuning or adapter-tuning) without sacrificing its performance. We propose to select layers based on the variability of their hidden states given a task-specific corpus. We say a layer is already "well-specialized" in a task if the within-class variability of its hidden states is low relative to the between-class variability. Our variability metric is cheap to compute and doesn't need any training or hyperparameter tuning. It is robust to data imbalance and data scarcity. Extensive experiments on the GLUE benchmark demonstrate that selecting layers based on our metric can yield significantly stronger performance than using the same number of top layers and often match the performance of fine-tuning or adapter-tuning the entire language model.

HYPRO: A Hybridly Normalized Probabilistic Model for Long-Horizon Prediction of Event Sequences

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

Bellman Meets Hawkes: Model-Based Reinforcement Learning via Temporal Point Processes

We consider a sequential decision making problem where the agent faces the environment characterized by the stochastic discrete events and seeks an optimal intervention policy such that its long-term reward is maximized. This problem exists ubiquitously in social media, finance and health informatics but is rarely investigated by the conventional research in reinforcement learning. To this end, we present a novel framework of the model-based reinforcement learning where the agent's actions and observations are asynchronous stochastic discrete events occurring in continuous-time. We model the dynamics of the environment by Hawkes process with external intervention control term and develop an algorithm to embed such process in the Bellman equation which guides the direction of the value gradient. We demonstrate the superiority of our method in both synthetic simulator and real-world problem.

Transformer Embeddings of Irregularly Spaced Events and Their Participants

We propose an approach to modeling irregularly spaced sequences of discrete events. We begin with a continuous-time variant of the Transformer, which was originally formulated (Vaswani et al., 2017) for sequences without timestamps. We embed a possible event (or other boolean fact) at time $t$ by using attention over the events that occurred at times $< t$ (and the facts that were true when they occurred). We control this attention using pattern-matching logic rules that relate events and facts that share participants. These rules determine which previous events will be attended to, as well as how to transform the embeddings of the events and facts into the attentional queries, keys, and values. Other logic rules describe how to change the set of facts in response to events. Our approach closely follows Mei et al. (2020a), and adopts their Datalog Through Time formalism for logic rules. As in that work, a domain expert first writes a set of logic rules that establishes the set of possible events and other facts at each time $t$. Each possible event or other fact is embedded using a neural architecture that is derived from the rules that established it. Our only difference from Mei et al. (2020a) is that we derive a flatter, attention-based neural architecture whereas they used a more serial LSTM architecture. We find that our attention-based approach performs about equally well on the RoboCup dataset, where the logic rules play an important role in improving performance. We also compared these two methods with two previous attention-based methods (Zuo et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2020a) on simpler synthetic and real domains without logic rules, and found our proposed approach to be at least as good, and sometimes better, than each of the other three methods.

Noise-Contrastive Estimation for Multivariate Point Processes

The log-likelihood of a generative model often involves both positive and negative terms. For a temporal multivariate point process, the negative term sums over all the possible event types at each time and also integrates over all the possible times. As a result, maximum likelihood estimation is expensive. We show how to instead apply a version of noise-contrastive estimation---a general parameter estimation method with a less expensive stochastic objective. Our specific instantiation of this general idea works out in an interestingly non-trivial way and has provable guarantees for its optimality, consistency and efficiency. On several synthetic and real-world datasets, our method shows benefits: for the model to achieve the same level of log-likelihood on held-out data, our method needs considerably fewer function evaluations and less wall-clock time.

Neural Datalog Through Time: Informed Temporal Modeling via Logical Specification

Learning how to predict future events from patterns of past events is difficult when the set of possible event types is large. Training an unrestricted neural model might overfit to spurious patterns. To exploit domain-specific knowledge of how past events might affect an event's present probability, we propose using a temporal deductive database to track structured facts over time. Rules serve to prove facts from other facts and from past events. Each fact has a time-varying state---a vector computed by a neural net whose topology is determined by the fact's provenance, including its experience of past events. The possible event types at any time are given by special facts, whose probabilities are neurally modeled alongside their states. In both synthetic and real-world domains, we show that neural probabilistic models derived from concise Datalog programs improve prediction by encoding appropriate domain knowledge in their architecture.

Imputing Missing Events in Continuous-Time Event Streams

Events in the world may be caused by other, unobserved events. We consider sequences of events in continuous time. Given a probability model of complete sequences, we propose particle smoothing---a form of sequential importance sampling---to impute the missing events in an incomplete sequence. We develop a trainable family of proposal distributions based on a type of bidirectional continuous-time LSTM: Bidirectionality lets the proposals condition on future observations, not just on the past as in particle filtering. Our method can sample an ensemble of possible complete sequences (particles), from which we form a single consensus prediction that has low Bayes risk under our chosen loss metric. We experiment in multiple synthetic and real domains, using different missingness mechanisms, and modeling the complete sequences in each domain with a neural Hawkes process (Mei & Eisner 2017). On held-out incomplete sequences, our method is effective at inferring the ground-truth unobserved events, with particle smoothing consistently improving upon particle filtering.

On the Idiosyncrasies of the Mandarin Chinese Classifier System

While idiosyncrasies of the Chinese classifier system have been a richly studied topic among linguists (Adams and Conklin, 1973; Erbaugh, 1986; Lakoff, 1986), not much work has been done to quantify them with statistical methods. In this paper, we introduce an information-theoretic approach to measuring idiosyncrasy; we examine how much the uncertainty in Mandarin Chinese classifiers can be reduced by knowing semantic information about the nouns that the classifiers modify. Using the empirical distribution of classifiers from the parsed Chinese Gigaword corpus (Graff et al., 2005), we compute the mutual information (in bits) between the distribution over classifiers and distributions over other linguistic quantities. We investigate whether semantic classes of nouns and adjectives differ in how much they reduce uncertainty in classifier choice, and find that it is not fully idiosyncratic; while there are no obvious trends for the majority of semantic classes, shape nouns reduce uncertainty in classifier choice the most.

Halo: Learning Semantics-Aware Representations for Cross-Lingual Information Extraction

Cross-lingual information extraction (CLIE) is an important and challenging task, especially in low resource scenarios. To tackle this challenge, we propose a training method, called Halo, which enforces the local region of each hidden state of a neural model to only generate target tokens with the same semantic structure tag. This simple but powerful technique enables a neural model to learn semantics-aware representations that are robust to noise, without introducing any extra parameter, thus yielding better generalization in both high and low resource settings.

The Neural Hawkes Process: A Neurally Self-Modulating Multivariate Point Process

Many events occur in the world. Some event types are stochastically excited or inhibited---in the sense of having their probabilities elevated or decreased---by patterns in the sequence of previous events. Discovering such patterns can help us predict which type of event will happen next and when. We model streams of discrete events in continuous time, by constructing a neurally self-modulating multivariate point process in which the intensities of multiple event types evolve according to a novel continuous-time LSTM. This generative model allows past events to influence the future in complex and realistic ways, by conditioning future event intensities on the hidden state of a recurrent neural network that has consumed the stream of past events. Our model has desirable qualitative properties. It achieves competitive likelihood and predictive accuracy on real and synthetic datasets, including under missing-data conditions.