Characterizing Multimodal Long-form Summarization: A Case Study on Financial Reports

As large language models (LLMs) expand the power of natural language processing to handle long inputs, rigorous and systematic analyses are necessary to understand their abilities and behavior. A salient application is summarization, due to its ubiquity and controversy (e.g., researchers have declared the death of summarization). In this paper, we use financial report summarization as a case study because financial reports not only are long but also use numbers and tables extensively. We propose a computational framework for characterizing multimodal long-form summarization and investigate the behavior of Claude 2.0/2.1, GPT-4/3.5, and Command. We find that GPT-3.5 and Command fail to perform this summarization task meaningfully. For Claude 2 and GPT-4, we analyze the extractiveness of the summary and identify a position bias in LLMs. This position bias disappears after shuffling the input for Claude, which suggests that Claude has the ability to recognize important information. We also conduct a comprehensive investigation on the use of numeric data in LLM-generated summaries and offer a taxonomy of numeric hallucination. We employ prompt engineering to improve GPT-4's use of numbers with limited success. Overall, our analyses highlight the strong capability of Claude 2 in handling long multimodal inputs compared to GPT-4.

Hypothesis Generation with Large Language Models

Effective generation of novel hypotheses is instrumental to scientific progress. So far, researchers have been the main powerhouse behind hypothesis generation by painstaking data analysis and thinking (also known as the Eureka moment). In this paper, we examine the potential of large language models (LLMs) to generate hypotheses. We focus on hypothesis generation based on data (i.e., labeled examples). To enable LLMs to handle arbitrarily long contexts, we generate initial hypotheses from a small number of examples and then update them iteratively to improve the quality of hypotheses. Inspired by multi-armed bandits, we design a reward function to inform the exploitation-exploration tradeoff in the update process. Our algorithm is able to generate hypotheses that enable much better predictive performance than few-shot prompting in classification tasks, improving accuracy by 31.7% on a synthetic dataset and by 13.9%, 3.3% and, 24.9% on three real-world datasets. We also outperform supervised learning by 12.8% and 11.2% on two challenging real-world datasets. Furthermore, we find that the generated hypotheses not only corroborate human-verified theories but also uncover new insights for the tasks.

Quantifying the Uniqueness of Donald Trump in Presidential Discourse

Does Donald Trump speak differently from other presidents? If so, in what ways? Are these differences confined to any single medium of communication? To investigate these questions, this paper introduces a novel metric of uniqueness based on large language models, develops a new lexicon for divisive speech, and presents a framework for comparing the lexical features of political opponents. Applying these tools to a variety of corpora of presidential speeches, we find considerable evidence that Trump's speech patterns diverge from those of all major party nominees for the presidency in recent history. Some notable findings include Trump's employment of particularly divisive and antagonistic language targeting of his political opponents and his patterns of repetition for emphasis. Furthermore, Trump is significantly more distinctive than his fellow Republicans, whose uniqueness values are comparably closer to those of the Democrats. These differences hold across a variety of measurement strategies, arise on both the campaign trail and in official presidential addresses, and do not appear to be an artifact of secular time trends.

Clinical Notes Reveal Physician Fatigue

Physicians write notes about patients. In doing so, they reveal much about themselves. Using data from 129,228 emergency room visits, we train a model to identify notes written by fatigued physicians -- those who worked 5 or more of the prior 7 days. In a hold-out set, the model accurately identifies notes written by these high-workload physicians, and also flags notes written in other high-fatigue settings: on overnight shifts, and after high patient volumes. Model predictions also correlate with worse decision-making on at least one important metric: yield of testing for heart attack is 18% lower with each standard deviation increase in model-predicted fatigue. Finally, the model indicates that notes written about Black and Hispanic patients have 12% and 21% higher predicted fatigue than Whites -- larger than overnight vs. daytime differences. These results have an important implication for large language models (LLMs). Our model indicates that fatigued doctors write more predictable notes. Perhaps unsurprisingly, because word prediction is the core of how LLMs work, we find that LLM-written notes have 17% higher predicted fatigue than real physicians' notes. This indicates that LLMs may introduce distortions in generated text that are not yet fully understood.

Pragmatic Radiology Report Generation

When pneumonia is not found on a chest X-ray, should the report describe this negative observation or omit it? We argue that this question cannot be answered from the X-ray alone and requires a pragmatic perspective, which captures the communicative goal that radiology reports serve between radiologists and patients. However, the standard image-to-text formulation for radiology report generation fails to incorporate such pragmatic intents. Following this pragmatic perspective, we demonstrate that the indication, which describes why a patient comes for an X-ray, drives the mentions of negative observations and introduce indications as additional input to report generation. With respect to the output, we develop a framework to identify uninferable information from the image as a source of model hallucinations, and limit them by cleaning groundtruth reports. Finally, we use indications and cleaned groundtruth reports to develop pragmatic models, and show that they outperform existing methods not only in new pragmatics-inspired metrics (+4.3 Negative F1) but also in standard metrics (+6.3 Positive F1 and +11.0 BLEU-2).

Ecologically Valid Explanations for Label Variation in NLI

Human label variation, or annotation disagreement, exists in many natural language processing (NLP) tasks, including natural language inference (NLI). To gain direct evidence of how NLI label variation arises, we build LiveNLI, an English dataset of 1,415 ecologically valid explanations (annotators explain the NLI labels they chose) for 122 MNLI items (at least 10 explanations per item). The LiveNLI explanations confirm that people can systematically vary on their interpretation and highlight within-label variation: annotators sometimes choose the same label for different reasons. This suggests that explanations are crucial for navigating label interpretations in general. We few-shot prompt large language models to generate explanations but the results are inconsistent: they sometimes produces valid and informative explanations, but it also generates implausible ones that do not support the label, highlighting directions for improvement.

FLamE: Few-shot Learning from Natural Language Explanations

Natural language explanations have the potential to provide rich information that in principle guides model reasoning. Yet, recent work by Lampinen et al. (2022) has shown limited utility of natural language explanations in improving classification. To effectively learn from explanations, we present FLamE, a two-stage few-shot learning framework that first generates explanations using GPT-3, and then finetunes a smaller model (e.g., RoBERTa) with generated explanations. Our experiments on natural language inference demonstrate effectiveness over strong baselines, increasing accuracy by 17.6% over GPT-3 Babbage and 5.7% over GPT-3 Davinci in e-SNLI. Despite improving classification performance, human evaluation surprisingly reveals that the majority of generated explanations does not adequately justify classification decisions. Additional analyses point to the important role of label-specific cues (e.g., "not know" for the neutral label) in generated explanations.

Language of Bargaining

Leveraging an established exercise in negotiation education, we build a novel dataset for studying how the use of language shapes bilateral bargaining. Our dataset extends existing work in two ways: 1) we recruit participants via behavioral labs instead of crowdsourcing platforms and allow participants to negotiate through audio, enabling more naturalistic interactions; 2) we add a control setting where participants negotiate only through alternating, written numeric offers.Despite the two contrasting forms of communication, we find that the average agreed prices of the two treatments are identical. But when subjects can talk, fewer offers are exchanged, negotiations finish faster, the likelihood of reaching agreement rises, and the variance of prices at which subjects agree drops substantially. We further propose a taxonomy of speech acts in negotiation and enrich the dataset with annotated speech acts. We set up prediction tasks to predict negotiation success and find that being reactive to the arguments of the other party is advantageous over driving the negotiation.

Language Models Can Improve Event Prediction by Few-Shot Abductive Reasoning

Large language models have shown astonishing performance on a wide range of reasoning tasks. In this paper, we investigate whether they could reason about real-world events and help improve the prediction accuracy of event sequence models. We design a modeling and prediction framework where a large language model performs abductive reasoning to assist an event sequence model: the event model proposes predictions on future events given the past; instructed by a few expert-annotated demonstrations, the language model learns to suggest possible causes for each proposal; a search module finds out the previous events that match the causes; a scoring function learns to examine whether the retrieved events could actually cause the proposal. Through extensive experiments on two challenging real-world datasets (Amazon Review and GDELT), we demonstrate that our framework -- thanks to the reasoning ability of language models -- could significantly outperform the state-of-the-art event sequence models.

Causal Reasoning and Large Language Models: Opening a New Frontier for Causality

The causal capabilities of large language models (LLMs) is a matter of significant debate, with critical implications for the use of LLMs in societally impactful domains such as medicine, science, law, and policy. We further our understanding of LLMs and their causal implications, considering the distinctions between different types of causal reasoning tasks, as well as the entangled threats of construct and measurement validity. LLM-based methods establish new state-of-the-art accuracies on multiple causal benchmarks. Algorithms based on GPT-3.5 and 4 outperform existing algorithms on a pairwise causal discovery task (97%, 13 points gain), counterfactual reasoning task (92%, 20 points gain), and actual causality (86% accuracy in determining necessary and sufficient causes in vignettes). At the same time, LLMs exhibit unpredictable failure modes and we provide some techniques to interpret their robustness. Crucially, LLMs perform these causal tasks while relying on sources of knowledge and methods distinct from and complementary to non-LLM based approaches. Specifically, LLMs bring capabilities so far understood to be restricted to humans, such as using collected knowledge to generate causal graphs or identifying background causal context from natural language. We envision LLMs to be used alongside existing causal methods, as a proxy for human domain knowledge and to reduce human effort in setting up a causal analysis, one of the biggest impediments to the widespread adoption of causal methods. We also see existing causal methods as promising tools for LLMs to formalize, validate, and communicate their reasoning especially in high-stakes scenarios. In capturing common sense and domain knowledge about causal mechanisms and supporting translation between natural language and formal methods, LLMs open new frontiers for advancing the research, practice, and adoption of causality.