Neuro-Inspired Information-Theoretic Hierarchical Perception for Multimodal Learning

Integrating and processing information from various sources or modalities are critical for obtaining a comprehensive and accurate perception of the real world in autonomous systems and cyber-physical systems. Drawing inspiration from neuroscience, we develop the Information-Theoretic Hierarchical Perception (ITHP) model, which utilizes the concept of information bottleneck. Different from most traditional fusion models that incorporate all modalities identically in neural networks, our model designates a prime modality and regards the remaining modalities as detectors in the information pathway, serving to distill the flow of information. Our proposed perception model focuses on constructing an effective and compact information flow by achieving a balance between the minimization of mutual information between the latent state and the input modal state, and the maximization of mutual information between the latent states and the remaining modal states. This approach leads to compact latent state representations that retain relevant information while minimizing redundancy, thereby substantially enhancing the performance of multimodal representation learning. Experimental evaluations on the MUStARD, CMU-MOSI, and CMU-MOSEI datasets demonstrate that our model consistently distills crucial information in multimodal learning scenarios, outperforming state-of-the-art benchmarks. Remarkably, on the CMU-MOSI dataset, ITHP surpasses human-level performance in the multimodal sentiment binary classification task across all evaluation metrics (i.e., Binary Accuracy, F1 Score, Mean Absolute Error, and Pearson Correlation).

Exploring Neuron Interactions and Emergence in LLMs: From the Multifractal Analysis Perspective

Prior studies on the emergence in large models have primarily focused on how the functional capabilities of large language models (LLMs) scale with model size. Our research, however, transcends this traditional paradigm, aiming to deepen our understanding of the emergence within LLMs by placing a special emphasis not just on the model size but more significantly on the complex behavior of neuron interactions during the training process. By introducing the concepts of "self-organization" and "multifractal analysis," we explore how neuron interactions dynamically evolve during training, leading to "emergence," mirroring the phenomenon in natural systems where simple micro-level interactions give rise to complex macro-level behaviors. To quantitatively analyze the continuously evolving interactions among neurons in large models during training, we propose the Neuron-based Multifractal Analysis (NeuroMFA). Utilizing NeuroMFA, we conduct a comprehensive examination of the emergent behavior in LLMs through the lens of both model size and training process, paving new avenues for research into the emergence in large models.

Guiding Large Language Models with Divide-and-Conquer Program for Discerning Problem Solving

Foundation models, such as Large language Models (LLMs), have attracted significant amount of interest due to their large number of applications. Existing works show that appropriate prompt design, such as Chain-of-Thoughts, can unlock LLM's powerful capacity in diverse areas. However, when handling tasks involving repetitive sub-tasks and/or deceptive contents, such as arithmetic calculation and article-level fake news detection, existing prompting strategies either suffers from insufficient expressive power or intermediate errors triggered by hallucination. To make LLM more discerning to such intermediate errors, we propose to guide LLM with a Divide-and-Conquer program that simultaneously ensures superior expressive power and disentangles task decomposition, sub-task resolution, and resolution assembly process. Theoretic analysis reveals that our strategy can guide LLM to extend the expressive power of fixed-depth Transformer. Experiments indicate that our proposed method can achieve better performance than typical prompting strategies in tasks bothered by intermediate errors and deceptive contents, such as large integer multiplication, hallucination detection and misinformation detection.

TEMPO: Prompt-based Generative Pre-trained Transformer for Time Series Forecasting

The past decade has witnessed significant advances in time series modeling with deep learning. While achieving state-of-the-art results, the best-performing architectures vary highly across applications and domains. Meanwhile, for natural language processing, the Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) has demonstrated impressive performance via training one general-purpose model across various textual datasets. It is intriguing to explore whether GPT-type architectures can be effective for time series, capturing the intrinsic dynamic attributes and leading to significant accuracy improvements. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, TEMPO, that can effectively learn time series representations. We focus on utilizing two essential inductive biases of the time series task for pre-trained models: (i) decomposition of the complex interaction between trend, seasonal and residual components; and (ii) introducing the selection-based prompts to facilitate distribution adaptation in non-stationary time series. TEMPO expands the capability for dynamically modeling real-world temporal phenomena from data within diverse domains. Our experiments demonstrate the superior performance of TEMPO over state-of-the-art methods on a number of time series benchmark datasets. This performance gain is observed not only in standard supervised learning settings but also in scenarios involving previously unseen datasets as well as in scenarios with multi-modal inputs. This compelling finding highlights TEMPO's potential to constitute a foundational model-building framework.

Neuro-Inspired Hierarchical Multimodal Learning

Integrating and processing information from various sources or modalities are critical for obtaining a comprehensive and accurate perception of the real world. Drawing inspiration from neuroscience, we develop the Information-Theoretic Hierarchical Perception (ITHP) model, which utilizes the concept of information bottleneck. Distinct from most traditional fusion models that aim to incorporate all modalities as input, our model designates the prime modality as input, while the remaining modalities act as detectors in the information pathway. Our proposed perception model focuses on constructing an effective and compact information flow by achieving a balance between the minimization of mutual information between the latent state and the input modal state, and the maximization of mutual information between the latent states and the remaining modal states. This approach leads to compact latent state representations that retain relevant information while minimizing redundancy, thereby substantially enhancing the performance of downstream tasks. Experimental evaluations on both the MUStARD and CMU-MOSI datasets demonstrate that our model consistently distills crucial information in multimodal learning scenarios, outperforming state-of-the-art benchmarks.

Detecting Out-of-Context Multimodal Misinformation with interpretable neural-symbolic model

Recent years have witnessed the sustained evolution of misinformation that aims at manipulating public opinions. Unlike traditional rumors or fake news editors who mainly rely on generated and/or counterfeited images, text and videos, current misinformation creators now more tend to use out-of-context multimedia contents (e.g. mismatched images and captions) to deceive the public and fake news detection systems. This new type of misinformation increases the difficulty of not only detection but also clarification, because every individual modality is close enough to true information. To address this challenge, in this paper we explore how to achieve interpretable cross-modal de-contextualization detection that simultaneously identifies the mismatched pairs and the cross-modal contradictions, which is helpful for fact-check websites to document clarifications. The proposed model first symbolically disassembles the text-modality information to a set of fact queries based on the Abstract Meaning Representation of the caption and then forwards the query-image pairs into a pre-trained large vision-language model select the ``evidences" that are helpful for us to detect misinformation. Extensive experiments indicate that the proposed methodology can provide us with much more interpretable predictions while maintaining the accuracy same as the state-of-the-art model on this task.

Estimating Treatment Effects from Irregular Time Series Observations with Hidden Confounders

Causal analysis for time series data, in particular estimating individualized treatment effect (ITE), is a key task in many real-world applications, such as finance, retail, healthcare, etc. Real-world time series can include large-scale, irregular, and intermittent time series observations, raising significant challenges to existing work attempting to estimate treatment effects. Specifically, the existence of hidden confounders can lead to biased treatment estimates and complicate the causal inference process. In particular, anomaly hidden confounders which exceed the typical range can lead to high variance estimates. Moreover, in continuous time settings with irregular samples, it is challenging to directly handle the dynamics of causality. In this paper, we leverage recent advances in Lipschitz regularization and neural controlled differential equations (CDE) to develop an effective and scalable solution, namely LipCDE, to address the above challenges. LipCDE can directly model the dynamic causal relationships between historical data and outcomes with irregular samples by considering the boundary of hidden confounders given by Lipschitz-constrained neural networks. Furthermore, we conduct extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets to demonstrate the effectiveness and scalability of LipCDE.

Coupled Multiwavelet Neural Operator Learning for Coupled Partial Differential Equations

Coupled partial differential equations (PDEs) are key tasks in modeling the complex dynamics of many physical processes. Recently, neural operators have shown the ability to solve PDEs by learning the integral kernel directly in Fourier/Wavelet space, so the difficulty for solving the coupled PDEs depends on dealing with the coupled mappings between the functions. Towards this end, we propose a \textit{coupled multiwavelets neural operator} (CMWNO) learning scheme by decoupling the coupled integral kernels during the multiwavelet decomposition and reconstruction procedures in the Wavelet space. The proposed model achieves significantly higher accuracy compared to previous learning-based solvers in solving the coupled PDEs including Gray-Scott (GS) equations and the non-local mean field game (MFG) problem. According to our experimental results, the proposed model exhibits a $2\times \sim 4\times$ improvement relative $L$2 error compared to the best results from the state-of-the-art models.

Estimating Treatment Effects in Continuous Time with Hidden Confounders

Estimating treatment effects plays a crucial role in causal inference, having many real-world applications like policy analysis and decision making. Nevertheless, estimating treatment effects in the longitudinal setting in the presence of hidden confounders remains an extremely challenging problem. Recently, there is a growing body of work attempting to obtain unbiased ITE estimates from time-dynamic observational data by ignoring the possible existence of hidden confounders. Additionally, many existing works handling hidden confounders are not applicable for continuous-time settings. In this paper, we extend the line of work focusing on deconfounding in the dynamic time setting in the presence of hidden confounders. We leverage recent advancements in neural differential equations to build a latent factor model using a stochastic controlled differential equation and Lipschitz constrained convolutional operation in order to continuously incorporate information about ongoing interventions and irregularly sampled observations. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets highlight the promise of continuous time methods for estimating treatment effects in the presence of hidden confounders.

DSLOB: A Synthetic Limit Order Book Dataset for Benchmarking Forecasting Algorithms under Distributional Shift

In electronic trading markets, limit order books (LOBs) provide information about pending buy/sell orders at various price levels for a given security. Recently, there has been a growing interest in using LOB data for resolving downstream machine learning tasks (e.g., forecasting). However, dealing with out-of-distribution (OOD) LOB data is challenging since distributional shifts are unlabeled in current publicly available LOB datasets. Therefore, it is critical to build a synthetic LOB dataset with labeled OOD samples serving as a testbed for developing models that generalize well to unseen scenarios. In this work, we utilize a multi-agent market simulator to build a synthetic LOB dataset, named DSLOB, with and without market stress scenarios, which allows for the design of controlled distributional shift benchmarking. Using the proposed synthetic dataset, we provide a holistic analysis on the forecasting performance of three different state-of-the-art forecasting methods. Our results reflect the need for increased researcher efforts to develop algorithms with robustness to distributional shifts in high-frequency time series data.