Deep End-to-end Causal Inference

Causal inference is essential for data-driven decision making across domains such as business engagement, medical treatment or policy making. However, research on causal discovery and inference has evolved separately, and the combination of the two domains is not trivial. In this work, we develop Deep End-to-end Causal Inference (DECI), a single flow-based method that takes in observational data and can perform both causal discovery and inference, including conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation. We provide a theoretical guarantee that DECI can recover the ground truth causal graph under mild assumptions. In addition, our method can handle heterogeneous, real-world, mixed-type data with missing values, allowing for both continuous and discrete treatment decisions. Moreover, the design principle of our method can generalize beyond DECI, providing a general End-to-end Causal Inference (ECI) recipe, which enables different ECI frameworks to be built using existing methods. Our results show the superior performance of DECI when compared to relevant baselines for both causal discovery and (C)ATE estimation in over a thousand experiments on both synthetic datasets and other causal machine learning benchmark datasets.

Optimal transport for causal discovery

Approaches based on Functional Causal Models (FCMs) have been proposed to determine causal direction between two variables, by properly restricting model classes; however, their performance is sensitive to the model assumptions, which makes it difficult for practitioners to use. In this paper, we provide a novel dynamical-system view of FCMs and propose a new framework for identifying causal direction in the bivariate case. We first show the connection between FCMs and optimal transport, and then study optimal transport under the constraints of FCMs. Furthermore, by exploiting the dynamical interpretation of optimal transport under the FCM constraints, we determine the corresponding underlying dynamical process of the static cause-effect pair data under the least action principle. It provides a new dimension for describing static causal discovery tasks, while enjoying more freedom for modeling the quantitative causal influences. In particular, we show that Additive Noise Models (ANMs) correspond to volume-preserving pressureless flows. Consequently, based on their velocity field divergence, we introduce a criterion to determine causal direction. With this criterion, we propose a novel optimal transport-based algorithm for ANMs which is robust to the choice of models and extend it to post-noninear models. Our method demonstrated state-of-the-art results on both synthetic and causal discovery benchmark datasets.

Identifiable Generative Models for Missing Not at Random Data Imputation

Real-world datasets often have missing values associated with complex generative processes, where the cause of the missingness may not be fully observed. This is known as missing not at random (MNAR) data. However, many imputation methods do not take into account the missingness mechanism, resulting in biased imputation values when MNAR data is present. Although there are a few methods that have considered the MNAR scenario, their model's identifiability under MNAR is generally not guaranteed. That is, model parameters can not be uniquely determined even with infinite data samples, hence the imputation results given by such models can still be biased. This issue is especially overlooked by many modern deep generative models. In this work, we fill in this gap by systematically analyzing the identifiability of generative models under MNAR. Furthermore, we propose a practical deep generative model which can provide identifiability guarantees under mild assumptions, for a wide range of MNAR mechanisms. Our method demonstrates a clear advantage for tasks on both synthetic data and multiple real-world scenarios with MNAR data.

VICause: Simultaneous Missing Value Imputation and Causal Discovery with Groups

Missing values constitute an important challenge in real-world machine learning for both prediction and causal discovery tasks. However, existing imputation methods are agnostic to causality, while only few methods in traditional causal discovery can handle missing data in an efficient way. In this work we propose VICause, a novel approach to simultaneously tackle missing value imputation and causal discovery efficiently with deep learning. Particularly, we propose a generative model with a structured latent space and a graph neural network-based architecture, scaling to large number of variables. Moreover, our method can discover relationships between groups of variables which is useful in many real-world applications. VICause shows improved performance compared to popular and recent approaches in both missing value imputation and causal discovery.

Discovering the Unknown Knowns: Turning Implicit Knowledge in the Dataset into Explicit Training Examples for Visual Question Answering

Visual question answering (VQA) is challenging not only because the model has to handle multi-modal information, but also because it is just so hard to collect sufficient training examples -- there are too many questions one can ask about an image. As a result, a VQA model trained solely on human-annotated examples could easily over-fit specific question styles or image contents that are being asked, leaving the model largely ignorant about the sheer diversity of questions. Existing methods address this issue primarily by introducing an auxiliary task such as visual grounding, cycle consistency, or debiasing. In this paper, we take a drastically different approach. We found that many of the "unknowns" to the learned VQA model are indeed "known" in the dataset implicitly. For instance, questions asking about the same object in different images are likely paraphrases; the number of detected or annotated objects in an image already provides the answer to the "how many" question, even if the question has not been annotated for that image. Building upon these insights, we present a simple data augmentation pipeline SimpleAug to turn this "known" knowledge into training examples for VQA. We show that these augmented examples can notably improve the learned VQA models' performance, not only on the VQA-CP dataset with language prior shifts but also on the VQA v2 dataset without such shifts. Our method further opens up the door to leverage weakly-labeled or unlabeled images in a principled way to enhance VQA models. Our code and data are publicly available at https://github.com/heendung/simpleAUG.

DoWhy: Addressing Challenges in Expressing and Validating Causal Assumptions

Estimation of causal effects involves crucial assumptions about the data-generating process, such as directionality of effect, presence of instrumental variables or mediators, and whether all relevant confounders are observed. Violation of any of these assumptions leads to significant error in the effect estimate. However, unlike cross-validation for predictive models, there is no global validator method for a causal estimate. As a result, expressing different causal assumptions formally and validating them (to the extent possible) becomes critical for any analysis. We present DoWhy, a framework that allows explicit declaration of assumptions through a causal graph and provides multiple validation tests to check a subset of these assumptions. Our experience with DoWhy highlights a number of open questions for future research: developing new ways beyond causal graphs to express assumptions, the role of causal discovery in learning relevant parts of the graph, and developing validation tests that can better detect errors, both for average and conditional treatment effects. DoWhy is available at https://github.com/microsoft/dowhy.

DeepPanoContext: Panoramic 3D Scene Understanding with Holistic Scene Context Graph and Relation-based Optimization

Panorama images have a much larger field-of-view thus naturally encode enriched scene context information compared to standard perspective images, which however is not well exploited in the previous scene understanding methods. In this paper, we propose a novel method for panoramic 3D scene understanding which recovers the 3D room layout and the shape, pose, position, and semantic category for each object from a single full-view panorama image. In order to fully utilize the rich context information, we design a novel graph neural network based context model to predict the relationship among objects and room layout, and a differentiable relationship-based optimization module to optimize object arrangement with well-designed objective functions on-the-fly. Realizing the existing data are either with incomplete ground truth or overly-simplified scene, we present a new synthetic dataset with good diversity in room layout and furniture placement, and realistic image quality for total panoramic 3D scene understanding. Experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms existing methods on panoramic scene understanding in terms of both geometry accuracy and object arrangement. Code is available at https://chengzhag.github.io/publication/dpc.

On Incorrectness Logic and Kleene Algebra With Top and Tests

Kleene algebra with tests (KAT) is a foundational equational framework for reasoning about programs, which has found applications in program transformations, networking and compiler optimizations, among many other areas. In his seminal work, Kozen proved that KAT subsumes propositional Hoare logic, showing that one can reason about the (partial) correctness of while programs by means of the equational theory of KAT. In this work, we investigate the support that KAT provides for reasoning about \emph{incorrectness}, instead, as embodied by Ohearn's recently proposed incorrectness logic. We show that KAT cannot directly express incorrectness logic. The main reason for this limitation can be traced to the fact that KAT cannot express explicitly the notion of codomain, which is essential to express incorrectness triples. To address this issue, we study Kleene algebra with Top and Tests (TopKAT), an extension of KAT with a top element. We show that TopKAT is powerful enough to express a codomain operation, to express incorrectness triples, and to prove all the rules of incorrectness logic sound. This shows that one can reason about the incorrectness of while-like programs by means of the equational theory of TopKAT.

Point-Voxel Transformer: An Efficient Approach To 3D Deep Learning

Due to the sparsity and irregularity of the 3D data, approaches that directly process points have become popular. Among all point-based models, Transformer-based models have achieved state-of-the-art performance by fully preserving point interrelation. However, most of them spend high percentage of total time on sparse data accessing (e.g., Farthest Point Sampling (FPS) and neighbor points query), which becomes the computation burden. Therefore, we present a novel 3D Transformer, called Point-Voxel Transformer (PVT) that leverages self-attention computation in points to gather global context features, while performing multi-head self-attention (MSA) computation in voxels to capture local information and reduce the irregular data access. Additionally, to further reduce the cost of MSA computation, we design a cyclic shifted boxing scheme which brings greater efficiency by limiting the MSA computation to non-overlapping local boxes while also preserving cross-box connection. Our method fully exploits the potentials of Transformer architecture, paving the road to efficient and accurate recognition results. Evaluated on classification and segmentation benchmarks, our PVT not only achieves strong accuracy but outperforms previous state-of-the-art Transformer-based models with 9x measured speedup on average. For 3D object detection task, we replace the primitives in Frustrum PointNet with PVT layer and achieve the improvement of 8.6%.

Toward Integrated Human-machine Intelligence for Civil Engineering: An Interdisciplinary Perspective

The purpose of this paper is to examine the opportunities and barriers of Integrated Human-Machine Intelligence (IHMI) in civil engineering. Integrating artificial intelligence's high efficiency and repeatability with humans' adaptability in various contexts can advance timely and reliable decision-making during civil engineering projects and emergencies. Successful cases in other domains, such as biomedical science, healthcare, and transportation, showed the potential of IHMI in data-driven, knowledge-based decision-making in numerous civil engineering applications. However, whether the industry and academia are ready to embrace the era of IHMI and maximize its benefit to the industry is still questionable due to several knowledge gaps. This paper thus calls for future studies in exploring the value, method, and challenges of applying IHMI in civil engineering. Our systematic review of the literature and motivating cases has identified four knowledge gaps in achieving effective IHMI in civil engineering. First, it is unknown what types of tasks in the civil engineering domain can be assisted by AI and to what extent. Second, the interface between human and AI in civil engineering-related tasks need more precise and formal definition. Third, the barriers that impede collecting detailed behavioral data from humans and contextual environments deserve systematic classification and prototyping. Lastly, it is unknown what expected and unexpected impacts will IHMI have on the AEC industry and entrepreneurship. Analyzing these knowledge gaps led to a list of identified research questions. This paper will lay the foundation for identifying relevant studies to form a research roadmap to address the four knowledge gaps identified.