Bayesian Empirical Bayes: Simultaneous Inference from Probabilistic Symmetries

Empirical Bayes (EB) improves the accuracy of simultaneous inference "by learning from the experience of others" (Efron, 2012). Classical EB theory focuses on latent variables that are iid draws from a fitted prior (Efron, 2019). Modern applications, however, feature complex structure, like arrays, spatial processes, or covariates. How can we apply EB ideas to these settings? We propose a generalized approach to empirical Bayes based on the notion of probabilistic symmetry. Our method pairs a simultaneous inference problem-with an unknown prior-to a symmetry assumption on the joint distribution of the latent variables. Each symmetry implies an ergodic decomposition, which we use to derive a corresponding empirical Bayes method. We call this methodBayesian empirical Bayes (BEB). We show how BEB recovers the classical methods of empirical Bayes, which implicitly assume exchangeability. We then use it to extend EB to other probabilistic symmetries: (i) EB matrix recovery for arrays and graphs; (ii) covariate-assisted EB for conditional data; (iii) EB spatial regression under shift invariance. We develop scalable algorithms based on variational inference and neural networks. In simulations, BEB outperforms existing approaches to denoising arrays and spatial data. On real data, we demonstrate BEB by denoising a cancer gene-expression matrix and analyzing spatial air-quality data from New York City.

Theory and computation for structured variational inference

Structured variational inference constitutes a core methodology in modern statistical applications. Unlike mean-field variational inference, the approximate posterior is assumed to have interdependent structure. We consider the natural setting of star-structured variational inference, where a root variable impacts all the other ones. We prove the first results for existence, uniqueness, and self-consistency of the variational approximation. In turn, we derive quantitative approximation error bounds for the variational approximation to the posterior, extending prior work from the mean-field setting to the star-structured setting. We also develop a gradient-based algorithm with provable guarantees for computing the variational approximation using ideas from optimal transport theory. We explore the implications of our results for Gaussian measures and hierarchical Bayesian models, including generalized linear models with location family priors and spike-and-slab priors with one-dimensional debiasing. As a by-product of our analysis, we develop new stability results for star-separable transport maps which might be of independent interest.

GET-USE: Learning Generalized Tool Usage for Bimanual Mobile Manipulation via Simulated Embodiment Extensions

The ability to use random objects as tools in a generalizable manner is a missing piece in robots' intelligence today to boost their versatility and problem-solving capabilities. State-of-the-art robotic tool usage methods focused on procedurally generating or crowd-sourcing datasets of tools for a task to learn how to grasp and manipulate them for that task. However, these methods assume that only one object is provided and that it is possible, with the correct grasp, to perform the task; they are not capable of identifying, grasping, and using the best object for a task when many are available, especially when the optimal tool is absent. In this work, we propose GeT-USE, a two-step procedure that learns to perform real-robot generalized tool usage by learning first to extend the robot's embodiment in simulation and then transferring the learned strategies to real-robot visuomotor policies. Our key insight is that by exploring a robot's embodiment extensions (i.e., building new end-effectors) in simulation, the robot can identify the general tool geometries most beneficial for a task. This learned geometric knowledge can then be distilled to perform generalized tool usage tasks by selecting and using the best available real-world object as tool. On a real robot with 22 degrees of freedom (DOFs), GeT-USE outperforms state-of-the-art methods by 30-60% success rates across three vision-based bimanual mobile manipulation tool-usage tasks.

A Survey on Efficient Large Language Model Training: From Data-centric Perspectives

Post-training of Large Language Models (LLMs) is crucial for unlocking their task generalization potential and domain-specific capabilities. However, the current LLM post-training paradigm faces significant data challenges, including the high costs of manual annotation and diminishing marginal returns on data scales. Therefore, achieving data-efficient post-training has become a key research question. In this paper, we present the first systematic survey of data-efficient LLM post-training from a data-centric perspective. We propose a taxonomy of data-efficient LLM post-training methods, covering data selection, data quality enhancement, synthetic data generation, data distillation and compression, and self-evolving data ecosystems. We summarize representative approaches in each category and outline future research directions. By examining the challenges in data-efficient LLM post-training, we highlight open problems and propose potential research avenues. We hope our work inspires further exploration into maximizing the potential of data utilization in large-scale model training. Paper List: https://github.com/luo-junyu/Awesome-Data-Efficient-LLM

Stability of Mean-Field Variational Inference

Mean-field variational inference (MFVI) is a widely used method for approximating high-dimensional probability distributions by product measures. This paper studies the stability properties of the mean-field approximation when the target distribution varies within the class of strongly log-concave measures. We establish dimension-free Lipschitz continuity of the MFVI optimizer with respect to the target distribution, measured in the 2-Wasserstein distance, with Lipschitz constant inversely proportional to the log-concavity parameter. Under additional regularity conditions, we further show that the MFVI optimizer depends differentiably on the target potential and characterize the derivative by a partial differential equation. Methodologically, we follow a novel approach to MFVI via linearized optimal transport: the non-convex MFVI problem is lifted to a convex optimization over transport maps with a fixed base measure, enabling the use of calculus of variations and functional analysis. We discuss several applications of our results to robust Bayesian inference and empirical Bayes, including a quantitative Bernstein--von Mises theorem for MFVI, as well as to distributed stochastic control.

Large Language Model Agent: A Survey on Methodology, Applications and Challenges

The era of intelligent agents is upon us, driven by revolutionary advancements in large language models. Large Language Model (LLM) agents, with goal-driven behaviors and dynamic adaptation capabilities, potentially represent a critical pathway toward artificial general intelligence. This survey systematically deconstructs LLM agent systems through a methodology-centered taxonomy, linking architectural foundations, collaboration mechanisms, and evolutionary pathways. We unify fragmented research threads by revealing fundamental connections between agent design principles and their emergent behaviors in complex environments. Our work provides a unified architectural perspective, examining how agents are constructed, how they collaborate, and how they evolve over time, while also addressing evaluation methodologies, tool applications, practical challenges, and diverse application domains. By surveying the latest developments in this rapidly evolving field, we offer researchers a structured taxonomy for understanding LLM agents and identify promising directions for future research. The collection is available at https://github.com/luo-junyu/Awesome-Agent-Papers.

Adaptive Nonparametric Perturbations of Parametric Bayesian Models

Parametric Bayesian modeling offers a powerful and flexible toolbox for scientific data analysis. Yet the model, however detailed, may still be wrong, and this can make inferences untrustworthy. In this paper we study nonparametrically perturbed parametric (NPP) Bayesian models, in which a parametric Bayesian model is relaxed via a distortion of its likelihood. We analyze the properties of NPP models when the target of inference is the true data distribution or some functional of it, such as in causal inference. We show that NPP models can offer the robustness of nonparametric models while retaining the data efficiency of parametric models, achieving fast convergence when the parametric model is close to true. To efficiently analyze data with an NPP model, we develop a generalized Bayes procedure to approximate its posterior. We demonstrate our method by estimating causal effects of gene expression from single cell RNA sequencing data. NPP modeling offers an efficient approach to robust Bayesian inference and can be used to robustify any parametric Bayesian model.

Effect of Adaptation Rate and Cost Display in a Human-AI Interaction Game

As interactions between humans and AI become more prevalent, it is critical to have better predictors of human behavior in these interactions. We investigated how changes in the AI's adaptive algorithm impact behavior predictions in two-player continuous games. In our experiments, the AI adapted its actions using a gradient descent algorithm under different adaptation rates while human participants were provided cost feedback. The cost feedback was provided by one of two types of visual displays: (a) cost at the current joint action vector, or (b) cost in a local neighborhood of the current joint action vector. Our results demonstrate that AI adaptation rate can significantly affect human behavior, having the ability to shift the outcome between two game theoretic equilibrium. We observed that slow adaptation rates shift the outcome towards the Nash equilibrium, while fast rates shift the outcome towards the human-led Stackelberg equilibrium. The addition of localized cost information had the effect of shifting outcomes towards Nash, compared to the outcomes from cost information at only the current joint action vector. Future work will investigate other effects that influence the convergence of gradient descent games.

Target conversation extraction: Source separation using turn-taking dynamics

Extracting the speech of participants in a conversation amidst interfering speakers and noise presents a challenging problem. In this paper, we introduce the novel task of target conversation extraction, where the goal is to extract the audio of a target conversation based on the speaker embedding of one of its participants. To accomplish this, we propose leveraging temporal patterns inherent in human conversations, particularly turn-taking dynamics, which uniquely characterize speakers engaged in conversation and distinguish them from interfering speakers and noise. Using neural networks, we show the feasibility of our approach on English and Mandarin conversation datasets. In the presence of interfering speakers, our results show an 8.19 dB improvement in signal-to-noise ratio for 2-speaker conversations and a 7.92 dB improvement for 2-4-speaker conversations. Code, dataset available at https://github.com/chentuochao/Target-Conversation-Extraction.

MMEvalPro: Calibrating Multimodal Benchmarks Towards Trustworthy and Efficient Evaluation

Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) exhibit impressive cross-modal understanding and reasoning abilities, often assessed through multiple-choice questions (MCQs) that include an image, a question, and several options. However, many benchmarks used for such evaluations suffer from systematic biases. Remarkably, Large Language Models (LLMs) without any visual perception capabilities achieve non-trivial performance, undermining the credibility of these evaluations. To address this issue while maintaining the efficiency of MCQ evaluations, we propose MMEvalPro, a benchmark designed to avoid Type-I errors through a trilogy evaluation pipeline and more rigorous metrics. For each original question from existing benchmarks, human annotators augment it by creating one perception question and one knowledge anchor question through a meticulous annotation process. MMEvalPro comprises $2,138$ question triplets, totaling $6,414$ distinct questions. Two-thirds of these questions are manually labeled by human experts, while the rest are sourced from existing benchmarks (MMMU, ScienceQA, and MathVista). Compared with the existing benchmarks, our experiments with the latest LLMs and LMMs demonstrate that MMEvalPro is more challenging (the best LMM lags behind human performance by $31.73\%$, compared to an average gap of $8.03\%$ in previous benchmarks) and more trustworthy (the best LLM trails the best LMM by $23.09\%$, whereas the gap for previous benchmarks is just $14.64\%$). Our in-depth analysis explains the reason for the large performance gap and justifies the trustworthiness of evaluation, underscoring its significant potential for advancing future research.