PRISM: Privileged Probabilistic Latent Supervision for End-to-End Autonomous Driving Motion Planning

End-to-end autonomous driving (E2E AD) systems integrate perception, prediction, and planning into a single differentiable architecture. While these models show great promise, their standard training often relies on output-only supervision, which can lead to weak gradients for the hidden layers of increasingly complex models. Recent works have integrated vision-language model (VLM) supervision for latent features to address this, yielding substantial empirical gains, yet leaving the underlying theoretical mechanisms poorly understood. Our investigation into this methodology reveals that the resulting performance gains stem not from VLM reasoning capabilities, as previously assumed, but rather from the latent connections forged between the E2E AD model and ground-truth (GT) data during training. Building on this insight, we propose a probabilistic deep supervision framework that regularizes intermediate latent representations directly from GT data. By treating model latents as reparameterizable distributions, we optimize the architecture via the Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO). Our evaluations conducted on the nuScenes dataset demonstrate that supervising trajectory-related latents with future GT paths consistently improves planning performance. Using identical training data and E2E architectures, our method achieves an 8% reduction in planning L2 error and a 3% decrease in collision rates compared to competitive vectorized baselines, all while incurring negligible computational overhead.

Beyond Self-Play and Scale: A Behavior Benchmark for Generalization in Autonomous Driving

Recent Autonomous Driving (AD) works such as GigaFlow and PufferDrive have unlocked Reinforcement Learning (RL) at scale as a training strategy for driving policies. Yet such policies remain disconnected from established benchmarks, leaving the performance of large-scale RL for driving on standardized evaluations unknown. We present BehaviorBench -- a comprehensive test suite that closes this gap along three axes: Evaluation, Complexity, and Behavior Diversity. In terms of Evaluation, we provide an interface connecting PufferDrive to nuPlan, which, for the first time, enables policies trained via RL at scale to be evaluated on an established planning benchmark for autonomous driving. Complementarily, we offer an evaluation framework that allows planners to be benchmarked directly inside the PufferDrive simulation, at a fraction of the time. Regarding Complexity, we observe that today's standardized benchmarks are so simple that near-perfect scores are achievable by straight lane following with collision checking. We extract a meaningful, interaction-rich split from the Waymo Open Motion Dataset (WOMD) on which strong performance is impossible without multi-agent reasoning. Lastly, we address Behavior Diversity. Existing benchmarks commonly evaluate planners against a single rule-based traffic model, the Intelligent Driver Model (IDM). We provide a diverse suite of interactive traffic agents to stress-test policies under heterogeneous behaviors, beyond just using IDM. Overall, our benchmarking analysis uncovers the following insight: despite learning interactive behaviors in an emergent manner, policies trained via pure self-play under standard reward functions overfit to their training opponents and fail to generalize to other traffic agent behaviors. Building on this observation, we propose a hybrid planner that combines a PPO policy with a rule-based planner.

Uncertainty Matters: Structured Probabilistic Online Mapping for Motion Prediction in Autonomous Driving

Online map generation and trajectory prediction are critical components of the autonomous driving perception-prediction-planning pipeline. While modern vectorized mapping models achieve high geometric accuracy, they typically treat map estimation as a deterministic task, discarding structural uncertainty. Existing probabilistic approaches often rely on diagonal covariance matrices, which assume independence between points and fail to capture the strong spatial correlations inherent in road geometry. To address this, we propose a structured probabilistic formulation for online map generation. Our method explicitly models intra-element dependencies by predicting a dense covariance matrix, parameterized via a Low-Rank plus Diagonal (LRPD) covariance decomposition. This formulation represents uncertainty as a combination of a low-rank component, which captures global spatial structure, and a diagonal component representing independent local noise, thereby capturing geometric correlations without the prohibitive computational cost of full covariance matrices. Evaluations on the nuScenes dataset demonstrate that our uncertainty-aware framework yields consistent improvements in online map generation quality compared to deterministic baselines. Furthermore, our approach establishes new state-of-the-art performance for map-based motion prediction, highlighting the critical role of uncertainty in planning tasks. Code is published under link-available-soon.

Don't double it: Efficient Agent Prediction in Occlusions

Occluded traffic agents pose a significant challenge for autonomous vehicles, as hidden pedestrians or vehicles can appear unexpectedly, yet this problem remains understudied. Existing learning-based methods, while capable of inferring the presence of hidden agents, often produce redundant occupancy predictions where a single agent is identified multiple times. This issue complicates downstream planning and increases computational load. To address this, we introduce MatchInformer, a novel transformer-based approach that builds on the state-of-the-art SceneInformer architecture. Our method improves upon prior work by integrating Hungarian Matching, a state-of-the-art object matching algorithm from object detection, into the training process to enforce a one-to-one correspondence between predictions and ground truth, thereby reducing redundancy. We further refine trajectory forecasts by decoupling an agent's heading from its motion, a strategy that improves the accuracy and interpretability of predicted paths. To better handle class imbalances, we propose using the Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) to evaluate occupancy predictions. By considering all entries in the confusion matrix, MCC provides a robust measure even in sparse or imbalanced scenarios. Experiments on the Waymo Open Motion Dataset demonstrate that our approach improves reasoning about occluded regions and produces more accurate trajectory forecasts than prior methods.

Entropy-Based Uncertainty Modeling for Trajectory Prediction in Autonomous Driving

In autonomous driving, accurate motion prediction is essential for safe and efficient motion planning. To ensure safety, planners must rely on reliable uncertainty information about the predicted future behavior of surrounding agents, yet this aspect has received limited attention. This paper addresses the so-far neglected problem of uncertainty modeling in trajectory prediction. We adopt a holistic approach that focuses on uncertainty quantification, decomposition, and the influence of model composition. Our method is based on a theoretically grounded information-theoretic approach to measure uncertainty, allowing us to decompose total uncertainty into its aleatoric and epistemic components. We conduct extensive experiments on the nuScenes dataset to assess how different model architectures and configurations affect uncertainty quantification and model robustness.

Motion Forecasting via Model-Based Risk Minimization

Forecasting the future trajectories of surrounding agents is crucial for autonomous vehicles to ensure safe, efficient, and comfortable route planning. While model ensembling has improved prediction accuracy in various fields, its application in trajectory prediction is limited due to the multi-modal nature of predictions. In this paper, we propose a novel sampling method applicable to trajectory prediction based on the predictions of multiple models. We first show that conventional sampling based on predicted probabilities can degrade performance due to missing alignment between models. To address this problem, we introduce a new method that generates optimal trajectories from a set of neural networks, framing it as a risk minimization problem with a variable loss function. By using state-of-the-art models as base learners, our approach constructs diverse and effective ensembles for optimal trajectory sampling. Extensive experiments on the nuScenes prediction dataset demonstrate that our method surpasses current state-of-the-art techniques, achieving top ranks on the leaderboard. We also provide a comprehensive empirical study on ensembling strategies, offering insights into their effectiveness. Our findings highlight the potential of advanced ensembling techniques in trajectory prediction, significantly improving predictive performance and paving the way for more reliable predicted trajectories.

Sampling-Free Probabilistic Deep State-Space Models

Many real-world dynamical systems can be described as State-Space Models (SSMs). In this formulation, each observation is emitted by a latent state, which follows first-order Markovian dynamics. A Probabilistic Deep SSM (ProDSSM) generalizes this framework to dynamical systems of unknown parametric form, where the transition and emission models are described by neural networks with uncertain weights. In this work, we propose the first deterministic inference algorithm for models of this type. Our framework allows efficient approximations for training and testing. We demonstrate in our experiments that our new method can be employed for a variety of tasks and enjoys a superior balance between predictive performance and computational budget.

Can you text what is happening? Integrating pre-trained language encoders into trajectory prediction models for autonomous driving

In autonomous driving tasks, scene understanding is the first step towards predicting the future behavior of the surrounding traffic participants. Yet, how to represent a given scene and extract its features are still open research questions. In this study, we propose a novel text-based representation of traffic scenes and process it with a pre-trained language encoder. First, we show that text-based representations, combined with classical rasterized image representations, lead to descriptive scene embeddings. Second, we benchmark our predictions on the nuScenes dataset and show significant improvements compared to baselines. Third, we show in an ablation study that a joint encoder of text and rasterized images outperforms the individual encoders confirming that both representations have their complementary strengths.

Cheap and Deterministic Inference for Deep State-Space Models of Interacting Dynamical Systems

Graph neural networks are often used to model interacting dynamical systems since they gracefully scale to systems with a varying and high number of agents. While there has been much progress made for deterministic interacting systems, modeling is much more challenging for stochastic systems in which one is interested in obtaining a predictive distribution over future trajectories. Existing methods are either computationally slow since they rely on Monte Carlo sampling or make simplifying assumptions such that the predictive distribution is unimodal. In this work, we present a deep state-space model which employs graph neural networks in order to model the underlying interacting dynamical system. The predictive distribution is multimodal and has the form of a Gaussian mixture model, where the moments of the Gaussian components can be computed via deterministic moment matching rules. Our moment matching scheme can be exploited for sample-free inference, leading to more efficient and stable training compared to Monte Carlo alternatives. Furthermore, we propose structured approximations to the covariance matrices of the Gaussian components in order to scale up to systems with many agents. We benchmark our novel framework on two challenging autonomous driving datasets. Both confirm the benefits of our method compared to state-of-the-art methods. We further demonstrate the usefulness of our individual contributions in a carefully designed ablation study and provide a detailed runtime analysis of our proposed covariance approximations. Finally, we empirically demonstrate the generalization ability of our method by evaluating its performance on unseen scenarios.

Differentiable Implicit Layers

In this paper, we introduce an efficient backpropagation scheme for non-constrained implicit functions. These functions are parametrized by a set of learnable weights and may optionally depend on some input; making them perfectly suitable as learnable layer in a neural network. We demonstrate our scheme on different applications: (i) neural ODEs with the implicit Euler method, and (ii) system identification in model predictive control.