Advances in Land Surface Model-based Forecasting: A comparative study of LSTM, Gradient Boosting, and Feedforward Neural Network Models as prognostic state emulators

Most useful weather prediction for the public is near the surface. The processes that are most relevant for near-surface weather prediction are also those that are most interactive and exhibit positive feedback or have key role in energy partitioning. Land surface models (LSMs) consider these processes together with surface heterogeneity and forecast water, carbon and energy fluxes, and coupled with an atmospheric model provide boundary and initial conditions. This numerical parametrization of atmospheric boundaries being computationally expensive, statistical surrogate models are increasingly used to accelerated progress in experimental research. We evaluated the efficiency of three surrogate models in speeding up experimental research by simulating land surface processes, which are integral to forecasting water, carbon, and energy fluxes in coupled atmospheric models. Specifically, we compared the performance of a Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) encoder-decoder network, extreme gradient boosting, and a feed-forward neural network within a physics-informed multi-objective framework. This framework emulates key states of the ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) land surface scheme, ECLand, across continental and global scales. Our findings indicate that while all models on average demonstrate high accuracy over the forecast period, the LSTM network excels in continental long-range predictions when carefully tuned, the XGB scores consistently high across tasks and the MLP provides an excellent implementation-time-accuracy trade-off. The runtime reduction achieved by the emulators in comparison to the full numerical models are significant, offering a faster, yet reliable alternative for conducting numerical experiments on land surfaces.

The Art of Imitation: Learning Long-Horizon Manipulation Tasks from Few Demonstrations

Task Parametrized Gaussian Mixture Models (TP-GMM) are a sample-efficient method for learning object-centric robot manipulation tasks. However, there are several open challenges to applying TP-GMMs in the wild. In this work, we tackle three crucial challenges synergistically. First, end-effector velocities are non-Euclidean and thus hard to model using standard GMMs. We thus propose to factorize the robot's end-effector velocity into its direction and magnitude, and model them using Riemannian GMMs. Second, we leverage the factorized velocities to segment and sequence skills from complex demonstration trajectories. Through the segmentation, we further align skill trajectories and hence leverage time as a powerful inductive bias. Third, we present a method to automatically detect relevant task parameters per skill from visual observations. Our approach enables learning complex manipulation tasks from just five demonstrations while using only RGB-D observations. Extensive experimental evaluations on RLBench demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance with 20-fold improved sample efficiency. Our policies generalize across different environments, object instances, and object positions, while the learned skills are reusable.

Latent Linear Quadratic Regulator for Robotic Control Tasks

Model predictive control (MPC) has played a more crucial role in various robotic control tasks, but its high computational requirements are concerning, especially for nonlinear dynamical models. This paper presents a $\textbf{la}$tent $\textbf{l}$inear $\textbf{q}$uadratic $\textbf{r}$egulator (LaLQR) that maps the state space into a latent space, on which the dynamical model is linear and the cost function is quadratic, allowing the efficient application of LQR. We jointly learn this alternative system by imitating the original MPC. Experiments show LaLQR's superior efficiency and generalization compared to other baselines.

UDUC: An Uncertainty-driven Approach for Learning-based Robust Control

Learning-based techniques have become popular in both model predictive control (MPC) and reinforcement learning (RL). Probabilistic ensemble (PE) models offer a promising approach for modelling system dynamics, showcasing the ability to capture uncertainty and scalability in high-dimensional control scenarios. However, PE models are susceptible to mode collapse, resulting in non-robust control when faced with environments slightly different from the training set. In this paper, we introduce the $\textbf{u}$ncertainty-$\textbf{d}$riven rob$\textbf{u}$st $\textbf{c}$ontrol (UDUC) loss as an alternative objective for training PE models, drawing inspiration from contrastive learning. We analyze the robustness of UDUC loss through the lens of robust optimization and evaluate its performance on the challenging Real-world Reinforcement Learning (RWRL) benchmark, which involves significant environmental mismatches between the training and testing environments.

PlanNetX: Learning an Efficient Neural Network Planner from MPC for Longitudinal Control

Model predictive control (MPC) is a powerful, optimization-based approach for controlling dynamical systems. However, the computational complexity of online optimization can be problematic on embedded devices. Especially, when we need to guarantee fixed control frequencies. Thus, previous work proposed to reduce the computational burden using imitation learning (IL) approximating the MPC policy by a neural network. In this work, we instead learn the whole planned trajectory of the MPC. We introduce a combination of a novel neural network architecture PlanNetX and a simple loss function based on the state trajectory that leverages the parameterized optimal control structure of the MPC. We validate our approach in the context of autonomous driving by learning a longitudinal planner and benchmarking it extensively in the CommonRoad simulator using synthetic scenarios and scenarios derived from real data. Our experimental results show that we can learn the open-loop MPC trajectory with high accuracy while improving the closed-loop performance of the learned control policy over other baselines like behavior cloning.

Hierarchical Insights: Exploiting Structural Similarities for Reliable 3D Semantic Segmentation

Safety-critical applications like autonomous driving call for robust 3D environment perception algorithms which can withstand highly diverse and ambiguous surroundings. The predictive performance of any classification model strongly depends on the underlying dataset and the prior knowledge conveyed by the annotated labels. While the labels provide a basis for the learning process, they usually fail to represent inherent relations between the classes - representations, which are a natural element of the human perception system. We propose a training strategy which enables a 3D LiDAR semantic segmentation model to learn structural relationships between the different classes through abstraction. We achieve this by implicitly modeling those relationships through a learning rule for hierarchical multi-label classification (HMC). With a detailed analysis we show, how this training strategy not only improves the model's confidence calibration, but also preserves additional information for downstream tasks like fusion, prediction and planning.

CellMixer: Annotation-free Semantic Cell Segmentation of Heterogeneous Cell Populations

In recent years, several unsupervised cell segmentation methods have been presented, trying to omit the requirement of laborious pixel-level annotations for the training of a cell segmentation model. Most if not all of these methods handle the instance segmentation task by focusing on the detection of different cell instances ignoring their type. While such models prove adequate for certain tasks, like cell counting, other applications require the identification of each cell's type. In this paper, we present CellMixer, an innovative annotation-free approach for the semantic segmentation of heterogeneous cell populations. Our augmentation-based method enables the training of a segmentation model from image-level labels of homogeneous cell populations. Our results show that CellMixer can achieve competitive segmentation performance across multiple cell types and imaging modalities, demonstrating the method's scalability and potential for broader applications in medical imaging, cellular biology, and diagnostics.

L(M)V-IQL: Multiple Intention Inverse Reinforcement Learning for Animal Behavior Characterization

In advancing the understanding of decision-making processes, mathematical models, particularly Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL), have proven instrumental in reconstructing animal's multiple intentions amidst complex behaviors. Given the recent development of a continuous-time multi-intention IRL framework, there has been persistent inquiry into inferring discrete time-varying reward functions with multiple intention IRL approaches. To tackle the challenge, we introduce the Latent (Markov) Variable Inverse Q-learning (L(M)V-IQL) algorithms, a novel IRL framework tailored for accommodating discrete intrinsic rewards. Leveraging an Expectation-Maximization approach, we cluster observed trajectories into distinct intentions and independently solve the IRL problem for each. Demonstrating the efficacy of L(M)V-IQL through simulated experiments and its application to different real mouse behavior datasets, our approach surpasses current benchmarks in animal behavior prediction, producing interpretable reward functions. This advancement holds promise for neuroscience and psychology, contributing to a deeper understanding of animal decision-making and uncovering underlying brain mechanisms.

On the Calibration of Uncertainty Estimation in LiDAR-based Semantic Segmentation

The confidence calibration of deep learning-based perception models plays a crucial role in their reliability. Especially in the context of autonomous driving, downstream tasks like prediction and planning depend on accurate confidence estimates. In point-wise multiclass classification tasks like sematic segmentation the model has to deal with heavy class imbalances. Due to their underrepresentation, the confidence calibration of classes with smaller instances is challenging but essential, not only for safety reasons. We propose a metric to measure the confidence calibration quality of a semantic segmentation model with respect to individual classes. It is calculated by computing sparsification curves for each class based on the uncertainty estimates. We use the classification calibration metric to evaluate uncertainty estimation methods with respect to their confidence calibration of underrepresented classes. We furthermore suggest a double use for the method to automatically find label problems to improve the quality of hand- or auto-annotated datasets.

Context-Conditional Navigation with a Learning-Based Terrain- and Robot-Aware Dynamics Model

In autonomous navigation settings, several quantities can be subject to variations. Terrain properties such as friction coefficients may vary over time depending on the location of the robot. Also, the dynamics of the robot may change due to, e.g., different payloads, changing the system's mass, or wear and tear, changing actuator gains or joint friction. An autonomous agent should thus be able to adapt to such variations. In this paper, we develop a novel probabilistic, terrain- and robot-aware forward dynamics model, termed TRADYN, which is able to adapt to the above-mentioned variations. It builds on recent advances in meta-learning forward dynamics models based on Neural Processes. We evaluate our method in a simulated 2D navigation setting with a unicycle-like robot and different terrain layouts with spatially varying friction coefficients. In our experiments, the proposed model exhibits lower prediction error for the task of long-horizon trajectory prediction, compared to non-adaptive ablation models. We also evaluate our model on the downstream task of navigation planning, which demonstrates improved performance in planning control-efficient paths by taking robot and terrain properties into account.