The Gaining Paths to Investment Success: Information-Driven LLM Graph Reasoning for Venture Capital Prediction

Most venture capital (VC) investments fail, while a few deliver outsized returns. Accurately predicting startup success requires synthesizing complex relational evidence, including company disclosures, investor track records, and investment network structures, through explicit reasoning to form coherent, interpretable investment theses. Traditional machine learning and graph neural networks both lack this reasoning capability. Large language models (LLMs) offer strong reasoning but face a modality mismatch with graphs. Recent graph-LLM methods target in-graph tasks where answers lie within the graph, whereas VC prediction is off-graph: the target exists outside the network. The core challenge is selecting graph paths that maximize predictor performance on an external objective while enabling step-by-step reasoning. We present MIRAGE-VC, a multi-perspective retrieval-augmented generation framework that addresses two obstacles: path explosion (thousands of candidate paths overwhelm LLM context) and heterogeneous evidence fusion (different startups need different analytical emphasis). Our information-gain-driven path retriever iteratively selects high-value neighbors, distilling investment networks into compact chains for explicit reasoning. A multi-agent architecture integrates three evidence streams via a learnable gating mechanism based on company attributes. Under strict anti-leakage controls, MIRAGE-VC achieves +5.0% F1 and +16.6% PrecisionAt5, and sheds light on other off-graph prediction tasks such as recommendation and risk assessment. Code: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/MIRAGE-VC-323F.

AKG kernel Agent: A Multi-Agent Framework for Cross-Platform Kernel Synthesis

Modern AI models demand high-performance computation kernels. The growing complexity of LLMs, multimodal architectures, and recommendation systems, combined with techniques like sparsity and quantization, creates significant computational challenges. Moreover, frequent hardware updates and diverse chip architectures further complicate this landscape, requiring tailored kernel implementations for each platform. However, manual optimization cannot keep pace with these demands, creating a critical bottleneck in AI system development. Recent advances in LLM code generation capabilities have opened new possibilities for automating kernel development. In this work, we propose AKG kernel agent (AI-driven Kernel Generator), a multi-agent system that automates kernel generation, migration, and performance tuning. AKG kernel agent is designed to support multiple domain-specific languages (DSLs), including Triton, TileLang, CPP, and CUDA-C, enabling it to target different hardware backends while maintaining correctness and portability. The system's modular design allows rapid integration of new DSLs and hardware targets. When evaluated on KernelBench using Triton DSL across GPU and NPU backends, AKG kernel agent achieves an average speedup of 1.46$\times$ over PyTorch Eager baselines implementations, demonstrating its effectiveness in accelerating kernel development for modern AI workloads.

ML Compass: Navigating Capability, Cost, and Compliance Trade-offs in AI Model Deployment

We study how organizations should select among competing AI models when user utility, deployment costs, and compliance requirements jointly matter. Widely used capability leaderboards do not translate directly into deployment decisions, creating a capability -- deployment gap; to bridge it, we take a systems-level view in which model choice is tied to application outcomes, operating constraints, and a capability-cost frontier. We develop ML Compass, a framework that treats model selection as constrained optimization over this frontier. On the theory side, we characterize optimal model configurations under a parametric frontier and show a three-regime structure in optimal internal measures: some dimensions are pinned at compliance minima, some saturate at maximum levels, and the remainder take interior values governed by frontier curvature. We derive comparative statics that quantify how budget changes, regulatory tightening, and technological progress propagate across capability dimensions and costs. On the implementation side, we propose a pipeline that (i) extracts low-dimensional internal measures from heterogeneous model descriptors, (ii) estimates an empirical frontier from capability and cost data, (iii) learns a user- or task-specific utility function from interaction outcome data, and (iv) uses these components to target capability-cost profiles and recommend models. We validate ML Compass with two case studies: a general-purpose conversational setting using the PRISM Alignment dataset and a healthcare setting using a custom dataset we build using HealthBench. In both environments, our framework produces recommendations -- and deployment-aware leaderboards based on predicted deployment value under constraints -- that can differ materially from capability-only rankings, and clarifies how trade-offs between capability, cost, and safety shape optimal model choice.

Soft Robotic Technological Probe for Speculative Fashion Futures

Emerging wearable robotics demand design approaches that address not only function, but also social meaning. In response, we present Sumbrella, a soft robotic garment developed as a speculative fashion probe. We first detail the design and fabrication of the Sumbrella, including sequenced origami-inspired bistable units, fabric pneumatic actuation chambers, cable driven shape morphing mechanisms, computer vision components, and an integrated wearable system comprising a hat and bolero jacket housing power and control electronics. Through a focus group with twelve creative technologists, we then used Sumbrella as a technological probe to explore how people interpreted, interacted, and imagined future relationships with soft robotic wearables. While Sumbrella allowed our participants to engage in rich discussion around speculative futures and expressive potential, it also surfaced concerns about exploitation, surveillance, and the personal risks and societal ethics of embedding biosensing technologies in public life. We contribute to the Human-Robot Interaction (HRI) field key considerations and recommendations for designing soft robotic garments, including the potential for kinesic communication, the impact of such technologies on social dynamics, and the importance of ethical guidelines. Finally, we provide a reflection on our application of speculative design; proposing that it allows HRI researchers to not only consider functionality, but also how wearable robots influence definitions of what is considered acceptable or desirable in public settings.

Prompt engineering does not universally improve Large Language Model performance across clinical decision-making tasks

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated promise in medical knowledge assessments, yet their practical utility in real-world clinical decision-making remains underexplored. In this study, we evaluated the performance of three state-of-the-art LLMs-ChatGPT-4o, Gemini 1.5 Pro, and LIama 3.3 70B-in clinical decision support across the entire clinical reasoning workflow of a typical patient encounter. Using 36 case studies, we first assessed LLM's out-of-the-box performance across five key sequential clinical decision-making tasks under two temperature settings (default vs. zero): differential diagnosis, essential immediate steps, relevant diagnostic testing, final diagnosis, and treatment recommendation. All models showed high variability by task, achieving near-perfect accuracy in final diagnosis, poor performance in relevant diagnostic testing, and moderate performance in remaining tasks. Furthermore, ChatGPT performed better under the zero temperature, whereas LIama showed stronger performance under the default temperature. Next, we assessed whether prompt engineering could enhance LLM performance by applying variations of the MedPrompt framework, incorporating targeted and random dynamic few-shot learning. The results demonstrate that prompt engineering is not a one-size-fit-all solution. While it significantly improved the performance on the task with lowest baseline accuracy (relevant diagnostic testing), it was counterproductive for others. Another key finding was that the targeted dynamic few-shot prompting did not consistently outperform random selection, indicating that the presumed benefits of closely matched examples may be counterbalanced by loss of broader contextual diversity. These findings suggest that the impact of prompt engineering is highly model and task-dependent, highlighting the need for tailored, context-aware strategies for integrating LLMs into healthcare.

Causal-Policy Forest for End-to-End Policy Learning

This study proposes an end-to-end algorithm for policy learning in causal inference. We observe data consisting of covariates, treatment assignments, and outcomes, where only the outcome corresponding to the assigned treatment is observed. The goal of policy learning is to train a policy from the observed data, where a policy is a function that recommends an optimal treatment for each individual, to maximize the policy value. In this study, we first show that maximizing the policy value is equivalent to minimizing the mean squared error for the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) under $\{-1, 1\}$ restricted regression models. Based on this finding, we modify the causal forest, an end-to-end CATE estimation algorithm, for policy learning. We refer to our algorithm as the causal-policy forest. Our algorithm has three advantages. First, it is a simple modification of an existing, widely used CATE estimation method, therefore, it helps bridge the gap between policy learning and CATE estimation in practice. Second, while existing studies typically estimate nuisance parameters for policy learning as a separate task, our algorithm trains the policy in a more end-to-end manner. Third, as in standard decision trees and random forests, we train the models efficiently, avoiding computational intractability.

When Does Multi-Task Learning Fail? Quantifying Data Imbalance and Task Independence in Metal Alloy Property Prediction

Multi-task learning (MTL) assumes related material properties share underlying physics that can be leveraged for better predictions. We test this by simultaneously predicting electrical resistivity, Vickers hardness, and amorphous-forming ability using 54,028 alloy samples. We compare single-task models against standard and structured MTL. Results reveal a striking dichotomy: MTL significantly degrades regression performance (resistivity $R^2$: 0.897 $\to$ 0.844; hardness $R^2$: 0.832 $\to$ 0.694, $p < 0.01$) but improves classification (amorphous F1: 0.703 $\to$ 0.744, $p < 0.05$; recall +17%). Analysis shows near-zero inter-task weights, indicating property independence. Regression failure is attributed to negative transfer caused by severe data imbalance (52k vs. 800 samples). We recommend independent models for precise regression, while reserving MTL for classification tasks where recall is critical.

Authors Should Label Their Own Documents

Third-party annotation is the status quo for labeling text, but egocentric information such as sentiment and belief can at best only be approximated by a third-person proxy. We introduce author labeling, an annotation technique where the writer of the document itself annotates the data at the moment of creation. We collaborate with a commercial chatbot with over 20,000 users to deploy an author labeling annotation system. This system identifies task-relevant queries, generates on-the-fly labeling questions, and records authors' answers in real time. We train and deploy an online-learning model architecture for product recommendation with author-labeled data to improve performance. We train our model to minimize the prediction error on questions generated for a set of predetermined subjective beliefs using author-labeled responses. Our model achieves a 537% improvement in click-through rate compared to an industry advertising baseline running concurrently. We then compare the quality and practicality of author labeling to three traditional annotation approaches for sentiment analysis and find author labeling to be higher quality, faster to acquire, and cheaper. These findings reinforce existing literature that annotations, especially for egocentric and subjective beliefs, are significantly higher quality when labeled by the author rather than a third party. To facilitate broader scientific adoption, we release an author labeling service for the research community at https://academic.echollm.io.

Learning Multi-Modal Mobility Dynamics for Generalized Next Location Recommendation

The precise prediction of human mobility has produced significant socioeconomic impacts, such as location recommendations and evacuation suggestions. However, existing methods suffer from limited generalization capability: unimodal approaches are constrained by data sparsity and inherent biases, while multi-modal methods struggle to effectively capture mobility dynamics caused by the semantic gap between static multi-modal representation and spatial-temporal dynamics. Therefore, we leverage multi-modal spatial-temporal knowledge to characterize mobility dynamics for the location recommendation task, dubbed as \textbf{M}ulti-\textbf{M}odal \textbf{Mob}ility (\textbf{M}$^3$\textbf{ob}). First, we construct a unified spatial-temporal relational graph (STRG) for multi-modal representation, by leveraging the functional semantics and spatial-temporal knowledge captured by the large language models (LLMs)-enhanced spatial-temporal knowledge graph (STKG). Second, we design a gating mechanism to fuse spatial-temporal graph representations of different modalities, and propose an STKG-guided cross-modal alignment to inject spatial-temporal dynamic knowledge into the static image modality. Extensive experiments on six public datasets show that our proposed method not only achieves consistent improvements in normal scenarios but also exhibits significant generalization ability in abnormal scenarios.

Frozen LVLMs for Micro-Video Recommendation: A Systematic Study of Feature Extraction and Fusion

Frozen Large Video Language Models (LVLMs) are increasingly employed in micro-video recommendation due to their strong multimodal understanding. However, their integration lacks systematic empirical evaluation: practitioners typically deploy LVLMs as fixed black-box feature extractors without systematically comparing alternative representation strategies. To address this gap, we present the first systematic empirical study along two key design dimensions: (i) integration strategies with ID embeddings, specifically replacement versus fusion, and (ii) feature extraction paradigms, comparing LVLM-generated captions with intermediate decoder hidden states. Extensive experiments on representative LVLMs reveal three key principles: (1) intermediate hidden states consistently outperform caption-based representations, as natural-language summarization inevitably discards fine-grained visual semantics crucial for recommendation; (2) ID embeddings capture irreplaceable collaborative signals, rendering fusion strictly superior to replacement; and (3) the effectiveness of intermediate decoder features varies significantly across layers. Guided by these insights, we propose the Dual Feature Fusion (DFF) Framework, a lightweight and plug-and-play approach that adaptively fuses multi-layer representations from frozen LVLMs with item ID embeddings. DFF achieves state-of-the-art performance on two real-world micro-video recommendation benchmarks, consistently outperforming strong baselines and providing a principled approach to integrating off-the-shelf large vision-language models into micro-video recommender systems.