Handover of In-Context Learning State Across Session Boundaries

This study investigates the methodological and theoretical properties of session handover in applications that use large language models. A task may continue in a new session when the context reaches the model's input limit, when the application restarts, or when another agent is asked to finish the task. The application must then decide which information from the earlier session to pass on. We formulate handover as the transfer of a task-relative in-context learning (ICL) state and distinguish exact recovery of earlier material from preservation of the target distribution. Under an exogeneity condition, predictive equivalence characterizes the coarsest deterministic sufficient handover and gives a fixed-length bit requirement. The analysis isolates the effects of the memory constraint, the writer, and the continuation procedure, and quantifies the cost of writing before the realized downstream query is known. We propose a three-part record that stores decisions and constraints exactly, uses task-justified statistics for repeated evidence, and retains original observations whose effect is not preserved by those statistics. Gaussian linear regression gives an exact finite-dimensional handover and finite-bit perturbation bounds, while nonparametric regression gives upper and lower bounds that relate memory to squared prediction error. These results provide a theory and method for deciding what a handover must retain and how its memory requirement depends on the continuation task.

Vector Search As Nearest Neighbor Matching: RAG-based Policy Learning in Causal Inference

We propose one-step and two-step methods for policy learning with retrieval-augmented generation (RAG). We formulate RAG-based action selection under the potential outcome framework. In the two-step method, vector search retrieves action-specific neighboring evidence in an embedding space, the generator estimates conditional expected outcomes or their contrasts, and a plug-in rule selects an action. This formulation connects action-specific vector search with nearest-neighbor matching in causal inference. We decompose the regret of the two-step method into candidate-generation regret and within-candidate choice regret, and we bound the latter using prediction-error guarantees for nearest-neighbor estimators and transformers. We evaluate the one-step method directly as a policy because its intermediate computation is unobserved.

Which Algorithm Specification Formats Help Language Models Implement Machine Learning Algorithms?

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to implement algorithms from research manuscripts, but papers often leave implementation choices implicit. This study examines how the written format of an algorithm specification affects first-pass LLM implementation accuracy. We compare ordinary prose, LaTeX algorithm-style pseudocode, PDF-like extracted pseudocode, Markdown fields, YAML-like specifications, JSON-like specifications, and Python code stubs across five machine learning tasks, three models, and four experimental settings, yielding 4,020 generated implementations. Hidden tests evaluate details that often determine correctness, including tie-breaking, array shapes, numerical rules, return structures, and invalid-input behavior. Under the core-information setting, LaTeX algorithm-style pseudocode has the largest average format effect, with YAML-like specifications and ordinary prose close behind. Under complete information, GPT-5.4 mini shows no format differences in the matched comparisons, whereas Gemma 3 4B and Llama 3.2 3B still do. Code stubs do not consistently improve correctness despite specifying the function signature. The results support a writing recommendation: authors should state the interface, computation steps, numerical rules, and boundary-case behavior explicitly, instead of relying on a particular surface format to carry those details.

AI Economist Agent: An Agentic Framework for Model-Grounded Economic Analysis with RAG, Knowledge Graphs, and Large Language Models

We propose a model-grounded RAG-based AI economist with an agentic framework for economic scenario analysis using large language models (LLMs) and knowledge graphs. While LLMs can generate fluent economic narratives, economists are often required to make economic claims grounded by economic theory and real-world data. Based on this motivation, this study proposes an RAG-based AI economist, which utilizes knowledge graphs including economic data and theory and LLM-based agents to plan the analysis, retrieve relevant evidence, select appropriate models, and generate reports. In our framework, we do not produce quantitative claims directly with the language model alone; instead, we generate narratives grounded in explicit model-based computations and linked to the retrieved evidence via AI agents. We refer to our framework as an AI economist agent. We evaluate the AI economist agent in two applications: economist report generation for U.S. inflation persistence and Federal Reserve policy, and bank stress-test narrative generation for U.S. commercial real estate refinancing stress. The results illustrate how grounding the generated reports improves their economic coherence and traceability.

Prediction-Powered Causal Inference by Automatic Debiased Machine Learning and Semi-Supervised Riesz Regression

This study investigates semiparametric efficient estimation of causal and structural parameters in a semi-supervised setting. In our setting, unlabeled auxiliary regressors are available in addition to labeled observations consisting of outcomes and regressors. Our goal is to construct estimators of causal and structural parameters whose asymptotic variances are smaller than those of estimators constructed using only labeled data. We refer to this framework as prediction-powered causal inference (PPCI). We first derive the efficient influence function and the efficiency bound, which imply that the use of auxiliary regressors can attain a smaller asymptotic variance than the efficiency bound attainable from labeled observations alone. Then, by combining the efficient influence function with the debiased machine learning (DML) framework, we propose methods that we call DML-PPCI. If we construct an estimating-equation estimator, we refer to the method as EE-DML-PPCI; if we construct a targeted-learning estimator, we refer to the method as TMLE-DML-PPCI. The asymptotic variances of both estimators match our derived efficiency bound. In the construction of the estimators, estimation of the efficient influence function plays an important role. In our study, the efficient influence function is also a Neyman orthogonal score, which depends on the Riesz representer and the regression function. For Riesz representer estimation, we develop semi-supervised generalized Riesz regression with convergence rate guarantees.

Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning

This position paper argues that, in debiased machine learning, balancing functions should be derived from the Neyman orthogonal score, not chosen only as functions of covariates. Covariate balancing is effective when the regression error entering the score can be represented by functions of covariates alone, and it is the natural finite-dimensional approximation for targets such as ATT counterfactual means. For ATE estimation under treatment effect heterogeneity, however, the score error generally contains treatment-specific components because the outcome regression is a function of the full regressor $X=(D,Z)$. In that case, balancing common functions of $Z$ can leave the treatment-specific component unbalanced. We therefore advocate regressor balancing, implemented by Riesz regression with basis functions of $X$, as the general balancing principle for DML. The position is not that covariate balancing is invalid, but that covariate balancing should be understood as the special case that is appropriate when the score-relevant regression error is a function of covariates alone.

Sequential Audit Sampling with Statistical Guarantees

Financial statement auditing is conducted under a risk-based evidence approach to obtain reasonable assurance. In practice, auditors often perform additional sampling or related procedures when an initial sample does not provide a sufficient basis for a conclusion. Across jurisdictions, current standards and practice manuals acknowledge such extensions, while the statistical design of sequential audit procedures has not been fully explored. This study formulates audit sampling with additional, sequentially collected items as a sequential testing problem for a finite population under sampling without replacement. We define null and alternative hypotheses in terms of a tolerable deviation rate, specify stopping and decision rules, and formulate exact sequential boundary conditions in terms of finite-population error probabilities. For practical implementation, we calibrate those boundaries by Monte Carlo simulation at least-favorable deviation rates. The exact design yields ex ante control of decision error probabilities, and the simulation-based implementation approximates that design while allowing the computation of expected stopping times. The framework is most naturally suited to attribute auditing and deviation-rate auditing, especially tests of controls, and it can be extended to one-sided, two-stage, and truncated designs.

Conformal Prediction for Nonparametric Instrumental Regression

We propose a method for constructing distribution-free prediction intervals in nonparametric instrumental variable regression (NPIV), with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Building on the conditional guarantee framework in conformal inference, we reformulate conditional coverage as marginal coverage over a class of IV shifts $\mathcal{F}$. Our method can be combined with any NPIV estimator, including sieve 2SLS and other machine-learning-based NPIV methods such as neural networks minimax approaches. Our theoretical analysis establishes distribution-free, finite-sample coverage over a practitioner-chosen class of IV shifts.

Causality Elicitation from Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) are trained on enormous amounts of data and encode knowledge in their parameters. We propose a pipeline to elicit causal relationships from LLMs. Specifically, (i) we sample many documents from LLMs on a given topic, (ii) we extract an event list from from each document, (iii) we group events that appear across documents into canonical events, (iv) we construct a binary indicator vector for each document over canonical events, and (v) we estimate candidate causal graphs using causal discovery methods. Our approach does not guarantee real-world causality. Rather, it provides a framework for presenting the set of causal hypotheses that LLMs can plausibly assume, as an inspectable set of variables and candidate graphs.

General Bayesian Policy Learning

This study proposes the General Bayes framework for policy learning. We consider decision problems in which a decision-maker chooses an action from an action set to maximize its expected welfare. Typical examples include treatment choice and portfolio selection. In such problems, the statistical target is a decision rule, and the prediction of each outcome $Y(a)$ is not necessarily of primary interest. We formulate this policy learning problem by loss-based Bayesian updating. Our main technical device is a squared-loss surrogate for welfare maximization. We show that maximizing empirical welfare over a policy class is equivalent to minimizing a scaled squared error in the outcome difference, up to a quadratic regularization controlled by a tuning parameter $ζ>0$. This rewriting yields a General Bayes posterior over decision rules that admits a Gaussian pseudo-likelihood interpretation. We clarify two Bayesian interpretations of the resulting generalized posterior, a working Gaussian view and a decision-theoretic loss-based view. As one implementation example, we introduce neural networks with tanh-squashed outputs. Finally, we provide theoretical guarantees in a PAC-Bayes style.