Optimizing Federated Learning for Scalable Power-demand Forecasting in Microgrids

Real-time monitoring of power consumption in cities and micro-grids through the Internet of Things (IoT) can help forecast future demand and optimize grid operations. But moving all consumer-level usage data to the cloud for predictions and analysis at fine time scales can expose activity patterns. Federated Learning~(FL) is a privacy-sensitive collaborative DNN training approach that retains data on edge devices, trains the models on private data locally, and aggregates the local models in the cloud. But key challenges exist: (i) clients can have non-independently identically distributed~(non-IID) data, and (ii) the learning should be computationally cheap while scaling to 1000s of (unseen) clients. In this paper, we develop and evaluate several optimizations to FL training across edge and cloud for time-series demand forecasting in micro-grids and city-scale utilities using DNNs to achieve a high prediction accuracy while minimizing the training cost. We showcase the benefit of using exponentially weighted loss while training and show that it further improves the prediction of the final model. Finally, we evaluate these strategies by validating over 1000s of clients for three states in the US from the OpenEIA corpus, and performing FL both in a pseudo-distributed setting and a Pi edge cluster. The results highlight the benefits of the proposed methods over baselines like ARIMA and DNNs trained for individual consumers, which are not scalable.

Leveraging GNN to Enhance MEF Method in Predicting ENSO

Reliable long-lead forecasting of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains a long-standing challenge in climate science. The previously developed Multimodal ENSO Forecast (MEF) model uses 80 ensemble predictions by two independent deep learning modules: a 3D Convolutional Neural Network (3D-CNN) and a time-series module. In their approach, outputs of the two modules are combined using a weighting strategy wherein one is prioritized over the other as a function of global performance. Separate weighting or testing of individual ensemble members did not occur, however, which may have limited the model to optimize the use of high-performing but spread-out forecasts. In this study, we propose a better framework that employs graph-based analysis to directly model similarity between all 80 members of the ensemble. By constructing an undirected graph whose vertices are ensemble outputs and whose weights on edges measure similarity (via RMSE and correlation), we identify and cluster structurally similar and accurate predictions. From which we obtain an optimized subset of 20 members using community detection methods. The final prediction is then obtained by averaging this optimized subset. This method improves the forecast skill through noise removal and emphasis on ensemble coherence. Interestingly, our graph-based selection shows robust statistical characteristics among top performers, offering new ensemble behavior insights. In addition, we observe that while the GNN-based approach does not always outperform the baseline MEF under every scenario, it produces more stable and consistent outputs, particularly in compound long-lead situations. The approach is model-agnostic too, suggesting that it can be applied directly to other forecasting models with gargantuan ensemble outputs, such as statistical, physical, or hybrid models.

GeoOutageKG: A Multimodal Geospatiotemporal Knowledge Graph for Multiresolution Power Outage Analysis

Detecting, analyzing, and predicting power outages is crucial for grid risk assessment and disaster mitigation. Numerous outages occur each year, exacerbated by extreme weather events such as hurricanes. Existing outage data are typically reported at the county level, limiting their spatial resolution and making it difficult to capture localized patterns. However, it offers excellent temporal granularity. In contrast, nighttime light satellite image data provides significantly higher spatial resolution and enables a more comprehensive spatial depiction of outages, enhancing the accuracy of assessing the geographic extent and severity of power loss after disaster events. However, these satellite data are only available on a daily basis. Integrating spatiotemporal visual and time-series data sources into a unified knowledge representation can substantially improve power outage detection, analysis, and predictive reasoning. In this paper, we propose GeoOutageKG, a multimodal knowledge graph that integrates diverse data sources, including nighttime light satellite image data, high-resolution spatiotemporal power outage maps, and county-level timeseries outage reports in the U.S. We describe our method for constructing GeoOutageKG by aligning source data with a developed ontology, GeoOutageOnto. Currently, GeoOutageKG includes over 10.6 million individual outage records spanning from 2014 to 2024, 300,000 NTL images spanning from 2012 to 2024, and 15,000 outage maps. GeoOutageKG is a novel, modular and reusable semantic resource that enables robust multimodal data integration. We demonstrate its use through multiresolution analysis of geospatiotemporal power outages.

Will You Be Aware? Eye Tracking-Based Modeling of Situational Awareness in Augmented Reality

Augmented Reality (AR) systems, while enhancing task performance through real-time guidance, pose risks of inducing cognitive tunneling-a hyperfocus on virtual content that compromises situational awareness (SA) in safety-critical scenarios. This paper investigates SA in AR-guided cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), where responders must balance effective compressions with vigilance to unpredictable hazards (e.g., patient vomiting). We developed an AR app on a Magic Leap 2 that overlays real-time CPR feedback (compression depth and rate) and conducted a user study with simulated unexpected incidents (e.g., bleeding) to evaluate SA, in which SA metrics were collected via observation and questionnaires administered during freeze-probe events. Eye tracking analysis revealed that higher SA levels were associated with greater saccadic amplitude and velocity, and with reduced proportion and frequency of fixations on virtual content. To predict SA, we propose FixGraphPool, a graph neural network that structures gaze events (fixations, saccades) into spatiotemporal graphs, effectively capturing dynamic attentional patterns. Our model achieved 83.0% accuracy (F1=81.0%), outperforming feature-based machine learning and state-of-the-art time-series models by leveraging domain knowledge and spatial-temporal information encoded in ET data. These findings demonstrate the potential of eye tracking for SA modeling in AR and highlight its utility in designing AR systems that ensure user safety and situational awareness.

Causal Graph Fuzzy LLMs: A First Introduction and Applications in Time Series Forecasting

In recent years, the application of Large Language Models (LLMs) to time series forecasting (TSF) has garnered significant attention among researchers. This study presents a new frame of LLMs named CGF-LLM using GPT-2 combined with fuzzy time series (FTS) and causal graph to predict multivariate time series, marking the first such architecture in the literature. The key objective is to convert numerical time series into interpretable forms through the parallel application of fuzzification and causal analysis, enabling both semantic understanding and structural insight as input for the pretrained GPT-2 model. The resulting textual representation offers a more interpretable view of the complex dynamics underlying the original time series. The reported results confirm the effectiveness of our proposed LLM-based time series forecasting model, as demonstrated across four different multivariate time series datasets. This initiative paves promising future directions in the domain of TSF using LLMs based on FTS.

Lasso Penalization for High-Dimensional Beta Regression Models: Computation, Analysis, and Inference

Beta regression is commonly employed when the outcome variable is a proportion. Since its conception, the approach has been widely used in applications spanning various scientific fields. A series of extensions have been proposed over time, several of which address variable selection and penalized estimation, e.g., with an $\ell_1$-penalty (LASSO). However, a theoretical analysis of this popular approach in the context of Beta regression with high-dimensional predictors is lacking. In this paper, we aim to close this gap. A particular challenge arises from the non-convexity of the associated negative log-likelihood, which we address by resorting to a framework for analyzing stationary points in a neighborhood of the target parameter. Leveraging this framework, we derive a non-asymptotic bound on the $\ell_1$-error of such stationary points. In addition, we propose a debiasing approach to construct confidence intervals for the regression parameters. A proximal gradient algorithm is devised for optimizing the resulting penalized negative log-likelihood function. Our theoretical analysis is corroborated via simulation studies, and a real data example concerning the prediction of county-level proportions of incarceration is presented to showcase the practical utility of our methodology.

Towards Explainable Deep Clustering for Time Series Data

Deep clustering uncovers hidden patterns and groups in complex time series data, yet its opaque decision-making limits use in safety-critical settings. This survey offers a structured overview of explainable deep clustering for time series, collecting current methods and their real-world applications. We thoroughly discuss and compare peer-reviewed and preprint papers through application domains across healthcare, finance, IoT, and climate science. Our analysis reveals that most work relies on autoencoder and attention architectures, with limited support for streaming, irregularly sampled, or privacy-preserved series, and interpretability is still primarily treated as an add-on. To push the field forward, we outline six research opportunities: (1) combining complex networks with built-in interpretability; (2) setting up clear, faithfulness-focused evaluation metrics for unsupervised explanations; (3) building explainers that adapt to live data streams; (4) crafting explanations tailored to specific domains; (5) adding human-in-the-loop methods that refine clusters and explanations together; and (6) improving our understanding of how time series clustering models work internally. By making interpretability a primary design goal rather than an afterthought, we propose the groundwork for the next generation of trustworthy deep clustering time series analytics.

Precision spectral estimation at sub-Hz frequencies: closed-form posteriors and Bayesian noise projection

We present a Bayesian method for estimating spectral quantities in multivariate Gaussian time series. The approach, based on periodograms and Wishart statistics, yields closed-form expressions at any given frequency for the marginal posterior distributions of the individual power spectral densities, the pairwise coherence, and the multiple coherence, as well as for the joint posterior distribution of the full cross-spectral density matrix. In the context of noise projection - where one series is modeled as a linear combination of filtered versions of the others, plus a background component - the method also provides closed-form posteriors for both the susceptibilities, i.e., the filter transfer functions, and the power spectral density of the background. Originally developed for the analysis of the data from the European Space Agency's LISA Pathfinder mission, the method is particularly well-suited to very-low-frequency data, where long observation times preclude averaging over large sets of periodograms, which would otherwise allow these to be treated as approximately normally distributed.

The Shape of Consumer Behavior: A Symbolic and Topological Analysis of Time Series

Understanding temporal patterns in online search behavior is crucial for real-time marketing and trend forecasting. Google Trends offers a rich proxy for public interest, yet the high dimensionality and noise of its time-series data present challenges for effective clustering. This study evaluates three unsupervised clustering approaches, Symbolic Aggregate approXimation (SAX), enhanced SAX (eSAX), and Topological Data Analysis (TDA), applied to 20 Google Trends keywords representing major consumer categories. Our results show that while SAX and eSAX offer fast and interpretable clustering for stable time series, they struggle with volatility and complexity, often producing ambiguous ``catch-all'' clusters. TDA, by contrast, captures global structural features through persistent homology and achieves more balanced and meaningful groupings. We conclude with practical guidance for using symbolic and topological methods in consumer analytics and suggest that hybrid approaches combining both perspectives hold strong potential for future applications.

A Novel Modeling Framework and Data Product for Extended VIIRS-like Artificial Nighttime Light Image Reconstruction (1986-2024)

Artificial Night-Time Light (NTL) remote sensing is a vital proxy for quantifying the intensity and spatial distribution of human activities. Although the NPP-VIIRS sensor provides high-quality NTL observations, its temporal coverage, which begins in 2012, restricts long-term time-series studies that extend to earlier periods. Despite the progress in extending VIIRS-like NTL time-series, current methods still suffer from two significant shortcomings: the underestimation of light intensity and the structural omission. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel reconstruction framework consisting of a two-stage process: construction and refinement. The construction stage features a Hierarchical Fusion Decoder (HFD) designed to enhance the fidelity of the initial reconstruction. The refinement stage employs a Dual Feature Refiner (DFR), which leverages high-resolution impervious surface masks to guide and enhance fine-grained structural details. Based on this framework, we developed the Extended VIIRS-like Artificial Nighttime Light (EVAL) product for China, extending the standard data record backwards by 26 years to begin in 1986. Quantitative evaluation shows that EVAL significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art products, boosting the $\text{R}^2$ from 0.68 to 0.80 while lowering the RMSE from 1.27 to 0.99. Furthermore, EVAL exhibits excellent temporal consistency and maintains a high correlation with socioeconomic parameters, confirming its reliability for long-term analysis. The resulting EVAL dataset provides a valuable new resource for the research community and is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.11888/HumanNat.tpdc.302930.