Generalist vs Specialist Time Series Foundation Models: Investigating Potential Emergent Behaviors in Assessing Human Health Using PPG Signals

Foundation models are large-scale machine learning models that are pre-trained on massive amounts of data and can be adapted for various downstream tasks. They have been extensively applied to tasks in Natural Language Processing and Computer Vision with models such as GPT, BERT, and CLIP. They are now also increasingly gaining attention in time-series analysis, particularly for physiological sensing. However, most time series foundation models are specialist models - with data in pre-training and testing of the same type, such as Electrocardiogram, Electroencephalogram, and Photoplethysmogram (PPG). Recent works, such as MOMENT, train a generalist time series foundation model with data from multiple domains, such as weather, traffic, and electricity. This paper aims to conduct a comprehensive benchmarking study to compare the performance of generalist and specialist models, with a focus on PPG signals. Through an extensive suite of total 51 tasks covering cardiac state assessment, laboratory value estimation, and cross-modal inference, we comprehensively evaluate both models across seven dimensions, including win score, average performance, feature quality, tuning gain, performance variance, transferability, and scalability. These metrics jointly capture not only the models' capability but also their adaptability, robustness, and efficiency under different fine-tuning strategies, providing a holistic understanding of their strengths and limitations for diverse downstream scenarios. In a full-tuning scenario, we demonstrate that the specialist model achieves a 27% higher win score. Finally, we provide further analysis on generalization, fairness, attention visualizations, and the importance of training data choice.

Learning with Preserving for Continual Multitask Learning

Artificial intelligence systems in critical fields like autonomous driving and medical imaging analysis often continually learn new tasks using a shared stream of input data. For instance, after learning to detect traffic signs, a model may later need to learn to classify traffic lights or different types of vehicles using the same camera feed. This scenario introduces a challenging setting we term Continual Multitask Learning (CMTL), where a model sequentially learns new tasks on an underlying data distribution without forgetting previously learned abilities. Existing continual learning methods often fail in this setting because they learn fragmented, task-specific features that interfere with one another. To address this, we introduce Learning with Preserving (LwP), a novel framework that shifts the focus from preserving task outputs to maintaining the geometric structure of the shared representation space. The core of LwP is a Dynamically Weighted Distance Preservation (DWDP) loss that prevents representation drift by regularizing the pairwise distances between latent data representations. This mechanism of preserving the underlying geometric structure allows the model to retain implicit knowledge and support diverse tasks without requiring a replay buffer, making it suitable for privacy-conscious applications. Extensive evaluations on time-series and image benchmarks show that LwP not only mitigates catastrophic forgetting but also consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in CMTL tasks. Notably, our method shows superior robustness to distribution shifts and is the only approach to surpass the strong single-task learning baseline, underscoring its effectiveness for real-world dynamic environments.

Benchmarking Catastrophic Forgetting Mitigation Methods in Federated Time Series Forecasting

Catastrophic forgetting (CF) poses a persistent challenge in continual learning (CL), especially within federated learning (FL) environments characterized by non-i.i.d. time series data. While existing research has largely focused on classification tasks in vision domains, the regression-based forecasting setting prevalent in IoT and edge applications remains underexplored. In this paper, we present the first benchmarking framework tailored to investigate CF in federated continual time series forecasting. Using the Beijing Multi-site Air Quality dataset across 12 decentralized clients, we systematically evaluate several CF mitigation strategies, including Replay, Elastic Weight Consolidation, Learning without Forgetting, and Synaptic Intelligence. Key contributions include: (i) introducing a new benchmark for CF in time series FL, (ii) conducting a comprehensive comparative analysis of state-of-the-art methods, and (iii) releasing a reproducible open-source framework. This work provides essential tools and insights for advancing continual learning in federated time-series forecasting systems.

Embedding-Space Data Augmentation to Prevent Membership Inference Attacks in Clinical Time Series Forecasting

Balancing strong privacy guarantees with high predictive performance is critical for time series forecasting (TSF) tasks involving Electronic Health Records (EHR). In this study, we explore how data augmentation can mitigate Membership Inference Attacks (MIA) on TSF models. We show that retraining with synthetic data can substantially reduce the effectiveness of loss-based MIAs by reducing the attacker's true-positive to false-positive ratio. The key challenge is generating synthetic samples that closely resemble the original training data to confuse the attacker, while also introducing enough novelty to enhance the model's ability to generalize to unseen data. We examine multiple augmentation strategies - Zeroth-Order Optimization (ZOO), a variant of ZOO constrained by Principal Component Analysis (ZOO-PCA), and MixUp - to strengthen model resilience without sacrificing accuracy. Our experimental results show that ZOO-PCA yields the best reductions in TPR/FPR ratio for MIA attacks without sacrificing performance on test data.

Probabilistic Textual Time Series Depression Detection

Accurate and interpretable predictions of depression severity are essential for clinical decision support, yet existing models often lack uncertainty estimates and temporal modeling. We propose PTTSD, a Probabilistic Textual Time Series Depression Detection framework that predicts PHQ-8 scores from utterance-level clinical interviews while modeling uncertainty over time. PTTSD includes sequence-to-sequence and sequence-to-one variants, both combining bidirectional LSTMs, self-attention, and residual connections with Gaussian or Student-t output heads trained via negative log-likelihood. Evaluated on E-DAIC and DAIC-WOZ, PTTSD achieves state-of-the-art performance among text-only systems (e.g., MAE = 3.85 on E-DAIC, 3.55 on DAIC) and produces well-calibrated prediction intervals. Ablations confirm the value of attention and probabilistic modeling, while comparisons with MentalBERT establish generality. A three-part calibration analysis and qualitative case studies further highlight the interpretability and clinical relevance of uncertainty-aware forecasting.

TimeSeriesScientist: A General-Purpose AI Agent for Time Series Analysis

Time series forecasting is central to decision-making in domains as diverse as energy, finance, climate, and public health. In practice, forecasters face thousands of short, noisy series that vary in frequency, quality, and horizon, where the dominant cost lies not in model fitting, but in the labor-intensive preprocessing, validation, and ensembling required to obtain reliable predictions. Prevailing statistical and deep learning models are tailored to specific datasets or domains and generalize poorly. A general, domain-agnostic framework that minimizes human intervention is urgently in demand. In this paper, we introduce TimeSeriesScientist (TSci), the first LLM-driven agentic framework for general time series forecasting. The framework comprises four specialized agents: Curator performs LLM-guided diagnostics augmented by external tools that reason over data statistics to choose targeted preprocessing; Planner narrows the hypothesis space of model choice by leveraging multi-modal diagnostics and self-planning over the input; Forecaster performs model fitting and validation and, based on the results, adaptively selects the best model configuration as well as ensemble strategy to make final predictions; and Reporter synthesizes the whole process into a comprehensive, transparent report. With transparent natural-language rationales and comprehensive reports, TSci transforms the forecasting workflow into a white-box system that is both interpretable and extensible across tasks. Empirical results on eight established benchmarks demonstrate that TSci consistently outperforms both statistical and LLM-based baselines, reducing forecast error by an average of 10.4% and 38.2%, respectively. Moreover, TSci produces a clear and rigorous report that makes the forecasting workflow more transparent and interpretable.

SERVIMON: AI-Driven Predictive Maintenance and Real-Time Monitoring for Astronomical Observatories

Objective: ServiMon is designed to offer a scalable and intelligent pipeline for data collection and auditing to monitor distributed astronomical systems such as the ASTRI Mini-Array. The system enhances quality control, predictive maintenance, and real-time anomaly detection for telescope operations. Methods: ServiMon integrates cloud-native technologies-including Prometheus, Grafana, Cassandra, Kafka, and InfluxDB-for telemetry collection and processing. It employs machine learning algorithms, notably Isolation Forest, to detect anomalies in Cassandra performance metrics. Key indicators such as read/write latency, throughput, and memory usage are continuously monitored, stored as time-series data, and preprocessed for feature engineering. Anomalies detected by the model are logged in InfluxDB v2 and accessed via Flux for real-time monitoring and visualization. Results: AI-based anomaly detection increases system resilience by identifying performance degradation at an early stage, minimizing downtime, and optimizing telescope operations. Additionally, ServiMon supports astrostatistical analysis by correlating telemetry with observational data, thus enhancing scientific data quality. AI-generated alerts also improve real-time monitoring, enabling proactive system management. Conclusion: ServiMon's scalable framework proves effective for predictive maintenance and real-time monitoring of astronomical infrastructures. By leveraging cloud and edge computing, it is adaptable to future large-scale experiments, optimizing both performance and cost. The combination of machine learning and big data analytics makes ServiMon a robust and flexible solution for modern and next-generation observational astronomy.

Noise or Signal? Deconstructing Contradictions and An Adaptive Remedy for Reversible Normalization in Time Series Forecasting

Reversible Instance Normalization (RevIN) is a key technique enabling simple linear models to achieve state-of-the-art performance in time series forecasting. While replacing its non-robust statistics with robust counterparts (termed R$^2$-IN) seems like a straightforward improvement, our findings reveal a far more complex reality. This paper deconstructs the perplexing performance of various normalization strategies by identifying four underlying theoretical contradictions. Our experiments provide two crucial findings: first, the standard RevIN catastrophically fails on datasets with extreme outliers, where its MSE surges by a staggering 683\%. Second, while the simple R$^2$-IN prevents this failure and unexpectedly emerges as the best overall performer, our adaptive model (A-IN), designed to test a diagnostics-driven heuristic, unexpectedly suffers a complete and systemic failure. This surprising outcome uncovers a critical, overlooked pitfall in time series analysis: the instability introduced by a simple or counter-intuitive heuristic can be more damaging than the statistical issues it aims to solve. The core contribution of this work is thus a new, cautionary paradigm for time series normalization: a shift from a blind search for complexity to a diagnostics-driven analysis that reveals not only the surprising power of simple baselines but also the perilous nature of naive adaptation.

Vacuum Spiker: A Spiking Neural Network-Based Model for Efficient Anomaly Detection in Time Series

Anomaly detection is a key task across domains such as industry, healthcare, and cybersecurity. Many real-world anomaly detection problems involve analyzing multiple features over time, making time series analysis a natural approach for such problems. While deep learning models have achieved strong performance in this field, their trend to exhibit high energy consumption limits their deployment in resource-constrained environments such as IoT devices, edge computing platforms, and wearables. To address this challenge, this paper introduces the \textit{Vacuum Spiker algorithm}, a novel Spiking Neural Network-based method for anomaly detection in time series. It incorporates a new detection criterion that relies on global changes in neural activity rather than reconstruction or prediction error. It is trained using Spike Time-Dependent Plasticity in a novel way, intended to induce changes in neural activity when anomalies occur. A new efficient encoding scheme is also proposed, which discretizes the input space into non-overlapping intervals, assigning each to a single neuron. This strategy encodes information with a single spike per time step, improving energy efficiency compared to conventional encoding methods. Experimental results on publicly available datasets show that the proposed algorithm achieves competitive performance while significantly reducing energy consumption, compared to a wide set of deep learning and machine learning baselines. Furthermore, its practical utility is validated in a real-world case study, where the model successfully identifies power curtailment events in a solar inverter. These results highlight its potential for sustainable and efficient anomaly detection.

Lightweight Ac Arc Fault Diagnosis via Fourier Transform Inspired Multi-frequency Neural Network

Lightweight online detection of series arc faults is critically needed in residential and industrial power systems to prevent electrical fires. Existing diagnostic methods struggle to achieve both rapid response and robust accuracy under resource-constrained conditions. To overcome the challenge, this work suggests leveraging a multi-frequency neural network named MFNN, embedding prior physical knowledge into the network. Inspired by arcing current curve and the Fourier decomposition analysis, we create an adaptive activation function with super-expressiveness, termed EAS, and a novel network architecture with branch networks to help MFNN extract features with multiple frequencies. In our experiments, eight advanced arc fault diagnosis models across an experimental dataset with multiple sampling times and multi-level noise are used to demonstrate the superiority of MFNN. The corresponding experiments show: 1) The MFNN outperforms other models in arc fault location, befitting from signal decomposition of branch networks. 2) The noise immunity of MFNN is much better than that of other models, achieving 14.51% over LCNN and 16.3% over BLS in test accuracy when SNR=-9. 3) EAS and the network architecture contribute to the excellent performance of MFNN.