A Systematic Evaluation of Current Architectures in Wind Power Forecasting

Interval wind speed forecasting is essential for the efficient integration of wind energy into power systems, as it accounts for the inherent uncertainty of wind resources. This study presents a systematic literature review focused on hybrid approaches to interval forecasting of wind generation, exploring the combination of deep learning, modal decomposition, and statistical methods. To guide the paper selection, Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) was applied for topic modeling, enabling the identification of patterns and research trends. The findings emphasize that integrating hybrid models with decomposition techniques-such as Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD)-enhances forecast accuracy and reliability by narrowing prediction intervals without compromising coverage. Regarding interval construction, most studies adopt a dual-model strategy, independently forecasting the lower and upper bounds. Input data are commonly decomposed using techniques like EMD, EEMD, or VMD, which extract frequency-based components. These components serve as inputs to models such as LSTM or ELM, trained separately for each bound. This approach allows for targeted modeling of uncertainty, improving flexibility and precision, Interval quality is typically evaluated through metrics that balance coverage and interval width. The review also highlights challenges, including the lack of standardized evaluation metrics, computational complexity, and limited real-world validation. Overall, the study reinforces the value of interval forecasting for wind energy operations and offers insights for advancing model robustness and decision-making.

Long Live Fine-Tuning: Task-Specific Transformers Outperform Zero-Shot LLMs for Misinformation Response Classification on Reddit

As large language models (LLMs) become default tools for online information verification, an implicit assumption follows them: that scale and general capability are sufficient for nuanced classification of misinformation discourse. We test this assumption directly on 900 Reddit comments spanning three PolitiFact-verified misinformation claims (environment, health, immigration), labelled as belief (propagates the claim), fact-check (corrects it), or other. We compare nine models across three paradigms -- BART-MNLI, three Llama variants, three commercial frontier LLMs (Claude Haiku 4.5, Gemini Flash Lite 2.5, Claude Sonnet 4.6), and fine-tuned DistilBERT and RoBERTa -- under universal and topic-specific label schemas. The assumption does not hold. Fine-tuned RoBERTa reaches 0.62 macro-$F_1$ against a best zero-shot result of 0.50 (Claude Haiku 4.5), at a fraction of the per-query cost; the supervised advantage is concentrated on the belief class, the implicit, affective category every zero-shot model under-detects. Scaling does not help: Llama-3-8B matches Llama-3-70B, and Claude Sonnet 4.6 underperforms the smaller Haiku under generic labels, collapsing belief detection to 0.17 and refusing outright on a subset of comments flagged as sensitive. This is a safety-alignment artefact, not a capacity limit. Label schema and topic jointly shape zero-shot performance, with the same model varying by more than 0.13 macro-$F_1$ across topics under matched labels. In a verification context, where missing belief is the costlier error, task-specific fine-tuning remains the more reliable choice despite the proliferation of large generative models.

Revising Context, Shifting Simulated Stance: Auditing LLM-Based Stance Simulation in Online Discussions

Large language models are increasingly used to simulate social media users and infer how individuals may respond to online discussions. However, it remains unclear whether these simulations reflect precise user-specific beliefs or whether they are highly sensitive to semantically independent changes in conversational contexts. In this work, we study counterfactual context revision as a framework for auditing LLM-based stance simulation. Given an original online conversation, we first infer a target user's stance toward a specific topic. We then apply controlled revision strategies to the conversational context and simulate the user's stance again under the revised context. We compare text-only revision strategies with a multimodal one that incorporates meme-based context and evaluate two main effectiveness metrics, i.e., average directional stance shift and stance transition rate. The results reveal effective and robust stance transitions in both text-only and multimodal strategies across different polarization-preference mechanisms. Our study contributes an evaluation framework for understanding the context sensitivity of LLM-based stance simulation. More broadly, it highlights both the promise and risk of using LLMs to simulate online opinion dynamics.

Agent-Orchestrated Adaptive RAG: A Comparative Study on Structured and Multi-Hop Retrieval

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) enhances Large Language Models (LLMs) by grounding their responses in external knowledge, but conventional pipelines rely on static, single-step retrieval that limits performance on complex queries. This paper presents an Agent-Orchestrated Adaptive RAG framework that introduces dynamic query decomposition, iterative retrieval, and a bounded self-reflective evaluation loop. We evaluate the system across two complementary datasets: a domain-specific DevOps knowledge base and the multi-hop reasoning benchmark MuSiQue. Using metrics that include overall score, citation accuracy, mean reciprocal rank, and topic coverage, we find that query decomposition yields consistent gains in the structured domain (overall score $+0.04$, MRR $+0.17$ on DevOps) but degrades ranking precision on the multi-hop benchmark, while the reflection mechanism improves citation accuracy at a substantial latency cost. These contrasting results show that agentic enhancements are not universally beneficial and must be applied selectively according to query and domain characteristics. Our findings argue for adaptive, cost-aware orchestration rather than uniformly aggressive reasoning pipelines.

Does Topic Sentiment Cause Perceived Ideology? Comparing Human and LLM Annotations in Political News Articles

We ask whether topic sentiment has a causal effect on perceived political ideology, and whether the answer depends on who assigns the ideology label. Using articles from AllSides, paired with shared sentiment annotations from Llama-3.3-70b-versatile, we compare ideology labels from expert human annotators, GPT-4o-mini (baseline and finetuned), and Llama-3.3-70B. We apply Double Machine Learning (DML) and community-level mediation analysis across all four annotation paradigms. Human annotations yield no significant causal effects at the community level. Fine-tuned GPT-4o-mini achieves the highest classification accuracy (F1=72.48) and is the only annotator paradigm that produces significant community-level treatment effects and significant natural direct effects (NDEs) in mediation. We interpret this as evidence of shortcut learning: fine-tuning on ideology-labeled data causes the model to internalise a spurious sentiment--ideology coupling not operative in human judgment for this task. This coupling is structurally invisible to F1-based evaluation, with implications for the use of LLM annotations as silver labels and as proxies for human judgment in downstream causal analyses.

Knowledge Manifold: A Riemannian Geometric Framework for Semantic Mapping and Geodesic Analysis of Scientific Literature

We present the knowledge manifold: a Riemannian geometric space in which a corpus of documents is arranged according to semantic positional relationships derived from character n-gram TF-IDF representations. The framework proceeds in five tightly coupled stages. First, each document is converted to a character-level n-gram TF-IDF vector (4-7 grams, up to 250,000 features, L2-normalized) and embedded in a two-dimensional knowledge map via constrained stress minimization with repulsion, variance, and centering regularizers. Second, knowledge at an arbitrary query point is estimated through Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) interpolation using a cubic-spline kernel, yielding an interpolated TF-IDF feature vector that can be linguistically characterized. Third, directional knowledge gradients at 0, 45, and 90 degrees are computed from the SPH interpolation map, and pairwise directional similarity is quantified via inner product and cosine similarity. Fourth, a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model, with a Constant x RBF + White kernel fitted on a 10-dimensional SVD projection, provides a Bayesian posterior mean, uncertainty estimate, and per-document contribution rate at the query point. Fifth, geodesics in the knowledge space are obtained by minimizing a discrete Riemannian path energy derived from the SPH-induced metric tensor, using L-BFGS-B with seven deterministic initial-path candidates. We apply the formulation to a corpus of 20 papers in fiber-reinforced composite materials and aerospace structural mechanics, showing that the semantic map recovers meaningful research clusters, geodesic paths reveal natural conceptual bridges between distant topics, and SPH/GPR interpolation enables the generation of virtual knowledge: hypothetical paper abstracts describing unstudied but geometrically predicted research directions.

When New Generators Arrive: Lifelong Machine-Generated Text Attribution via Ridge Feature Transfer

Machine-generated text (MGT) attribution aims to identify the specific generator responsible for a given text, thereby providing fine-grained evidence for model accountability and misuse investigation. As new large language models continue to emerge, attribution models must continuously incorporate new generators while preserving their ability to recognize previously seen ones. Prior works have shown that this lifelong MGT attribution setting is challenging, and existing methods often struggle to achieve a stable balance between adapting to new classes and retaining old ones. To address this issue, we propose RidgeFT, a lightweight analytic update framework that does not rely on exemplar replay. RidgeFT trains a task-aware encoder on the initial generator set, stores compact class-wise sufficient statistics when each generator class is first observed, and then freezes the encoder for replay-free closed-form updates. It then suppresses generator-irrelevant variation through covariance calibration, improves representation capacity with fixed random features, and updates new classes through closed-form ridge regression based on class-level sufficient statistics. Across multi-topic evaluations with varying initial generator setups, RidgeFT consistently outperforms baselines. It achieves the best macro-F1 across domains, backbones, and incremental protocols, while also improving both old-class retention and new-class adaptation. These results suggest that feature-stable analytic updates provide a simple yet effective approach to lifelong MGT attribution.

AgentJet: A Flexible Swarm Training Framework for Agentic Reinforcement Learning

We present AgentJet, a distributed swarm training framework for large language model (LLM) agent reinforcement learning. Unlike centralized frameworks that tightly couple agent rollouts with model optimization, AgentJet adopts a decoupled multi-node architecture in which swarm server nodes host trainable models and run optimization on GPU clusters, whereas swarm client nodes execute arbitrary agents on arbitrary devices. This design provides capabilities that are difficult to support in centralized frameworks: (1) heterogeneous multi-model reinforcement learning, enabling the training of heterogeneous multi-agent teams with multiple LLM as brains; (2) multi-task cocktail training with isolated agent runtimes; (3) fault-tolerant execution that prevents external environment failures from interrupting the training process; and (4) live code iteration, which allows agents to be edited during training by replacing swarm client nodes. To support efficient RL in multi-model, multi-turn, and multi-agent settings, AgentJet introduces a context tracking module with timeline merging, which consolidates redundant context and achieves a 1.5-10x training speedup. Finally, AgentJet introduces an automated research system that takes a research topic as input and autonomously conducts long-horizon, multi-day RL studies on large-scale clusters. By leveraging the swarm architecture, this system reproduces key exploratory workflows of RL researchers without human intervention during execution.

Listening to the Workforce: Measuring Construction Worker Safety Attitudes from Social Media Discourse Using LLMs

Worker safety attitudes are key determinants of whether protective practices are applied or bypassed on construction sites. Yet measuring them at scale has remained out of reach. Safety attitudes are multidimensional, vary across topics, and surface most candidly in workers' own conversations. This study created and validated the Construction Safety Attitude Framework (CSAF), which integrates two components: a theory-grounded structure that characterizes safety attitudes along eight dimensions, and an operational codebook for measuring them in worker naturalistic discourse. Applying CSAF to 250 posts and comments from the r/Construction community on Reddit, trained coders reached strong agreement (Krippendorff's α = 0.85). Pairwise lift and conditional probability confirmed that the eight dimensions are related yet distinct. To apply the framework across large volumes of discourse, CSAF was operationalized through a large language model (LLM) classifier. On 450 r/Construction contributions, the classifier reproduced expert human coding (Cohen's \k{appa} = 0.90, precision = 0.98, recall = 0.98), and on 400 contributions from r/Roofing it retained that accuracy after transfer to a different trade community (\k{appa} = 0.89, precision = 0.98, recall = 0.97). A proof-of-value case study then applied the validated classifier to 10,346 contributions from r/Roofing, demonstrating that CSAF can distinguish multidimensional attitudes by safety topic, track how they shift over time, and trace the reasoning behind unfavorable ones. The study therefore provides a theoretically grounded, empirically vetted instrument for examining safety attitudes, offering a basis for targeted interventions that address the attitudes underlying unsafe practices.

Beyond Waveform Robustness: Robust Feature-Vocoder Adversarial Attacks on Automatic Speech Recognition

Automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems have become widely used for multilingual speech-to-text transcription. Their robustness to adversarial attacks has become an important topic for the community. Existing adversarial attacks directly add adversarial noise to the speech audio. However, prior work has shown that existing adversarial attacks face two limitations: they often transfer poorly to black-box ASR systems and are increasingly mitigated by defenses tailored to input-space perturbations. In this work, we propose a Clean-Referenced Feature-Vocoder Attack, a surrogate-based black-box attack that moves the adversarial search space from raw waveforms to self-supervised learning (SSL) representations. To address the transferability limitation, we perturb more generalizable acoustic-phonetic representations rather than low-level waveform samples, reducing dependence on surrogate-specific waveform gradients and encouraging adversarial perturbations that generalize across ASR systems. To bypass different defenses, we shift the adversarial signal from explicit additive waveform noise to SSL feature-space perturbations and reconstruct them through a vocoder into speech-like waveform adversarial signals, making the resulting samples less aligned with waveform-bounded defenses. Extensive experiments show that, when optimized only on raw Whisper-small as a public surrogate model, our attack transfers effectively to black-box ASR models with a +26.6 WER improvement over the SOTA baseline, while also remaining effective against multiple training defenses with a +36.2 WER improvement. These results reveal a blind spot in current ASR robustness evaluation.