A Conflict-Aware Penalty and Statistical Loss Framework for Balancing Modalities and Enhancing Stability in Multimodal Sentiment Analysis

Multimodal Sentiment Analysis (MSA) fuses text, acoustic, and visual streams to infer sentiment. Because pre-trained text encoders are far more expressive than their acoustic and visual counterparts, the text modality tends to dominate optimization, suppressing weaker modalities and inducing gradient norm conflicts that destabilize training. To address this, we propose a Conflict-aware Penalty (CP) that detects and penalizes gradient norm conflicts at each training step, and a Statistical Loss (SL) that aligns predicted distribution statistics with empirical input statistics. Crucially, CP prevents dominant modality gradients from interfering with the SL objective, enabling synergistic training within a unified framework incorporating adaptive modality encoding, gated cross-modal fusion, and unimodal auxiliary heads. Experiments on CMU-MOSI demonstrate state-of-the-art performance, with ablation studies confirming the effectiveness of each component.

Temporal Simultaneity Predicts Annotation Quality in Sentiment Corpora

Annotation quality is difficult to sustain when campaigns span weeks or months with small annotator pools. We present a Setswana sentiment dataset of 3,565 tweets annotated by three native-speaker annotators across eight batches and examine why inter-annotator agreement (IAA) declines over time. Despite an aggregate Randolph's free-marginal Kappa of $κ= 0.76$, "excellent," per-batch $κ$ falls by more than 32 points across the annotation task. Through six targeted analyses, we find that (i) label confusion concentrates on the negative/neutral boundary, (ii) two annotators show run-length drift consistent with autopilot labeling, and (iii) the dominant predictor of $κ$ is temporal simultaneity: tweets labeled within one minute achieve $κ= 0.98$, while those labeled more than a day apart reach only $κ= 0.65$. Annotation speed and tweet-level linguistic features show no meaningful association with $κ$. We benchmark three open multilingual encoders and proprietary models (GPT-5 and Gemini) on three-class sentiment classification; fine-tuning yields gains of 29 to 43 macro-F1 points over pretrained baselines, with GPT-5 few-shot leading overall (62.2 macro-F1). We release the dataset, per-annotation timestamps, and analysis code to support reproducible quality auditing for future African language NLP resources.

DunbaaBERT: From Sacrifice to Semantics

Large language models have achieved strong performance across many NLP tasks, yet Urdu remains comparatively underexplored due to limited resources and fragmented evaluation settings. To address this gap, we introduce DunbaaBERT, a family of Urdu RoBERTa-base models trained from scratch with Byte-BPE vocabularies of 32k, 52k, and 96k tokens on a deduplicated 17GB Urdu corpus. We evaluate DunbaaBERT across intrinsic and downstream Urdu NLP benchmarks covering linguistic acceptability, news classification, offensive language detection, and sentiment analysis while analyzing vocabulary-size effects on performance and efficiency trade-offs. Across benchmarks, the DunbaaBERT variants achieve competitive performance against strong multilingual baselines while consistently maintaining favorable efficiency trade-offs. Interestingly, larger vocabularies do not consistently improve downstream effectiveness, with DunbaaBERT$_{\text{32k}}$ repeatedly providing the strongest overall efficiency profile. Overall, our results demonstrate that carefully curated Urdu-specific encoder models can remain highly competitive despite comparatively compact model and training scales. All models are released under the MIT license.

Attribute-Based Diagnosis of LLM Alignment with Hate Speech Annotations

Hate speech annotation is costly, subjective, and prone to annotator disagreement, making large-scale dataset construction challenging. We systematically analyze how well large language models (LLMs) align with human judgments across ten theoretically grounded subjective attributes, such as dehumanization, violence, and sentiment, evaluating both small and large variants of Llama 3.1 and Qwen 2.5. Our analysis reveals a consistent split across all models: behaviorally explicit dimensions (insult, humiliate, attack-defend) correlate strongly with human annotations, while evaluative dimensions (respect, sentiment, hate speech) are systematically inverted. Demographic persona conditioning reduces model confidence without improving alignment. Building on these insights, we propose combining attribute-level LLM predictions via a confidence-weighted Ridge regression to reconstruct continuous hate speech scores from the Measuring Hate Speech corpus, achieving $R^2$ of up to 0.71 and outperforming direct prompting baselines, demonstrating that structured attribute decomposition recovers a richer and more human-aligned signal than end-to-end label prediction alone.

StakeBench: Evaluating Language Understanding Grounded in Market Commitment

Existing financial NLP benchmarks often rely on labels supplied by outside observers, measuring how language is perceived rather than what speakers have committed to in the market. We introduce StakeBench, an evaluation framework for language understanding grounded in market commitment. StakeBench links 560,876 comments from 2,261 resolved markets to verified position, action, and market-odds records across Polymarket and Manifold. Supervision is derived from observable market behavior. Position sides, post-comment trading actions, and market-odds trajectories replace human annotation. Four diagnostic tasks test whether models detect market commitment, identify the revealed side, anticipate future action, and perform collective odds projection. Three commitment-aware metrics measure alignment with revealed preferences rather than perceived sentiment. Validity audits and explicit interpretation boundaries help distinguish observable commitment signals from latent belief and causal market-odds impact. Across 15 LLMs and 18 topics and platform settings, models partially recover position-side signals, with Directed Accuracy from 0.506 to 0.599, but show structural failures on later tasks. Ten of the fifteen models collapse to one or two action labels in future action anticipation, and no model consistently improves on the naive odds-direction baseline in collective odds projection. Model scale is not correlated with performance, finance-domain tuning does not improve revealed-side identification, and platform incentives strongly shape higher-order results. StakeBench is packaged with evaluation code and dataset under CC-BY 4.0.

PolyGnosis 2.0: Enhancing LLM Reasoning via Agentic Harness Engineering for Polymarket and OSINT Insight Extraction

This paper introduces PolyGnosis 2.0, a pioneering multi-agent architecture designed to extract predictive intelligence by synthesizing Polymarket anomaly signals with global Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) streams, specifically Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT). We define and target "Perspective Mismatches", the narrative divergence between Polymarket sentiment and global media flows, as high-alpha trading signals. Moving beyond generic agentic superiority, we rigorously quantify the efficacy of "Harness Engineering" techniques, including reflection loops, tool-calling, divide-and-conquer partitioning (D&C), and chain-of-thought (CoT), within high-noise financial domains. Our empirical evaluation against human-expert benchmarks reveals that while structural partitioning is mandatory for multi-dimensional alignment, unconstrained terminal reflection actively induces logical drift. Furthermore, we identify a pervasive "consensus bias" across all agent configurations during narrative reasoning, necessitating deterministic validation. Ultimately, we isolate a Pareto-optimal configuration that achieves professional-grade analytical precision while minimizing latency and token overhead, providing a robust blueprint for autonomous intelligence in prediction markets.

A Controlled Synthetic Benchmark for Educational Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis

Educational aspect-based sentiment analysis (ABSA) can support course improvement, but public aspect-labeled student feedback remains scarce because educational reviews are private, institution-specific, and expensive to annotate. This study introduces a controlled synthetic benchmark for educational ABSA built from 10,000 synthetic course reviews with explicit train-validation-test splits and a 20-aspect pedagogical schema spanning instructional quality, assessment and course management, learning demand, learning environment, and engagement. The corpus is generated with sampled target labels, sampled nuance attributes, and a realism-tuned prompt refined through a three-cycle judge-editor procedure. On the resulting benchmark, local baselines with TF-IDF, two-step transformers, and joint encoders show that the task is nontrivial; the strongest untuned model, BERT, reaches a held-out detection micro-F1 of 0.2760, while a modest lower-rate BERT schedule improves this to 0.2930. Full-test GPT-based inference with gpt-5.2 reaches 0.2519 micro-F1 in zero-shot mode and 0.2501 with retrieval-based few-shot prompting, placing batch inference above the classical baseline and close to the compact joint encoders. A conservative external evaluation on 2,829 mapped student-feedback reviews from Herath et al. yields a micro-F1 of 0.4593 for BERT on a 9-aspect overlap, indicating partial synthetic-to-real transfer. Realism and faithfulness analyses are reported as generator diagnostics that clarify how the benchmark was stabilized and where label noise remains. The study therefore contributes a synthetic educational ABSA corpus, a documented generation procedure, and a reproducible benchmark setting for a domain in which public labeled data remain difficult to obtain.

When Correct Demonstrations Hurt: Rethinking the Role of Exemplars in In-Context Learning

In-context learning (ICL) is often motivated by the intuition that demonstrations help because they provide correct input-output examples. However, we reveal a counterintuitive phenomenon: correctness does not guarantee exemplar utility, and some correct demonstrations can even reduce ICL accuracy. To study this correctness-utility gap, we introduce task-preserving perturbations, where only the exemplar input is changed, while the example remains a correct instance of the same task. Concretely, each perturbed exemplar is assigned the target induced by the task mapping. This framework covers both label-updating perturbations, where task-relevant semantics change and targets are recomputed, and stricter target-preserving perturbations, where the original target remains valid. We formalize the resulting failure mode as contextual evidence shift: task-preserving perturbations can change the effective mixture of evidence used by the model for contextual inference, thereby separating exemplar correctness from exemplar utility. Across sentiment classification, logical reasoning, and math word problems, we find that task-preserving perturbed demonstrations can substantially degrade ICL performance, especially for smaller models, harder tasks, and higher perturbation ratios. Our results show that robust ICL requires evaluating not only whether demonstrations are correct, but also how they influence contextual inference. Code is available at https://github.com/Chenghao-Qiu/Task-Preserving-ICL.

Predicting Stock Price Direction on Earnings Announcement Days using Multi-modal Deep Learning

Predicting stock price movements during Earnings Announcements (EAs) is a significant challenge due to market noise and high-impact price discontinuities. In this study, we evaluate whether pre-announcement news sentiment, firm fundamentals, and recent market dynamics jointly predict the directional price movement of equities on EA days. We construct a multi-modal feature space combining 15 fundamental metrics, 3 price-based technical indicators and sentiment scores derived from financial news articles processed using FinBERT. We compare a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network and a Transformer-based architecture against a logistic regression baseline, and further assess all models with and without sentiment features to quantify their incremental value. Our results indicate that while the LSTM demonstrates higher precision through a conservative safe-bet strategy, the Transformer model exhibits superior sensitivity in identifying volatile movements, achieving a higher macro F1-score, with ablation experiments showing a consistent benefit from incorporating news sentiment.

ChainzRule: Sample-Efficient, Robust Deep Learning Across Tabular, NLP, and Vision Tasks

Production deep learning systems across enterprise domains operate under constraints that academic benchmarks routinely obscure: labeled data is expensive, inference budgets are tight, and models that cannot explain their behavior are difficult to trust and maintain. We present ChainzRule (CR), a neural architecture replacing typical activations with learnable polynomial layers governed by Differential Regularization (DREG), a layer-wise Jacobian penalty computed analytically during the forward pass at standard inference cost. The core claim is that bounding intermediate derivatives forces the network toward low-frequency, structurally stable representations, simultaneously reducing dependence on labeled data volume, improving robustness to distribution shift, and providing a measurable, gradient-based handle on model behavior. Evaluated across five domains, CR achieves $85.71\% \pm 2.01\%$ on Pima Diabetes (statistically superior to SVM and XGBoost), $46.20\% \pm 0.37\%$ on SST-5 sentiment classification with a frozen encoder (superior to RNTN using approximately 5\% of its training data), $55.79\%$ on SST-5 with a fine-tuned BERT backbone (versus BERT-base linear head at $54.9\%$), $70.17\%$ on Yelp Full ordinal regression with 3.2M parameters versus a 10-model average of $66.35\%$, and $+2.32\%$ mean corruption accuracy on CIFAR-10-C. All results with reported $p$-values fall below the $α= 0.05$ threshold after Bonferroni correction. CR maintains a gradient tail ratio $τ$ (p99/mean) of $1.01$--$1.02$ against $1.07$--$1.09$ for all typical activation function baselines across every data fraction, a structural invariant we propose as the mechanistic driver of sample efficiency and a deployment-time proxy for model reliability.