Topic:Time Series Analysis
What is Time Series Analysis? Time series analysis comprises statistical methods for analyzing a sequence of data points collected over an interval of time to identify interesting patterns and trends.
Papers and Code
May 02, 2025
Abstract:We study the problem of learning to stabilize (LTS) a linear time-invariant (LTI) system. Policy gradient (PG) methods for control assume access to an initial stabilizing policy. However, designing such a policy for an unknown system is one of the most fundamental problems in control, and it may be as hard as learning the optimal policy itself. Existing work on the LTS problem requires large data as it scales quadratically with the ambient dimension. We propose a two-phase approach that first learns the left unstable subspace of the system and then solves a series of discounted linear quadratic regulator (LQR) problems on the learned unstable subspace, targeting to stabilize only the system's unstable dynamics and reduce the effective dimension of the control space. We provide non-asymptotic guarantees for both phases and demonstrate that operating on the unstable subspace reduces sample complexity. In particular, when the number of unstable modes is much smaller than the state dimension, our analysis reveals that LTS on the unstable subspace substantially speeds up the stabilization process. Numerical experiments are provided to support this sample complexity reduction achieved by our approach.
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Apr 05, 2025
Abstract:Transformer models have revolutionized sequential learning across various domains, yet their self-attention mechanism incurs quadratic computational cost, posing limitations for real-time and resource-constrained tasks. To address this, we propose Quantum Adaptive Self-Attention (QASA), a novel hybrid architecture that enhances classical Transformer models with a quantum attention mechanism. QASA replaces dot-product attention with a parameterized quantum circuit (PQC) that adaptively captures inter-token relationships in the quantum Hilbert space. Additionally, a residual quantum projection module is introduced before the feedforward network to further refine temporal features. Our design retains classical efficiency in earlier layers while injecting quantum expressiveness in the final encoder block, ensuring compatibility with current NISQ hardware. Experiments on synthetic time-series tasks demonstrate that QASA achieves faster convergence and superior generalization compared to both standard Transformers and reduced classical variants. Preliminary complexity analysis suggests potential quantum advantages in gradient computation, opening new avenues for efficient quantum deep learning models.
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Apr 04, 2025
Abstract:Given the growing environmental challenges, accurate monitoring and prediction of changes in water bodies are essential for sustainable management and conservation. The Continuous Monitoring of Land Disturbance (COLD) algorithm provides a valuable tool for real-time analysis of land changes, such as deforestation, urban expansion, agricultural activities, and natural disasters. This capability enables timely interventions and more informed decision-making. This paper assesses the effectiveness of the algorithm to estimate water bodies and track pixel-level water trends over time. Our findings indicate that COLD-derived data can reliably estimate estimate water frequency during stable periods and delineate water bodies. Furthermore, it enables the evaluation of trends in water areas after disturbances, allowing for the determination of whether water frequency increases, decreases, or remains constant.
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Apr 14, 2025
Abstract:Accurate prediction of non-dispatchable renewable energy sources is essential for grid stability and price prediction. Regional power supply forecasts are usually indirect through a bottom-up approach of plant-level forecasts, incorporate lagged power values, and do not use the potential of spatially resolved data. This study presents a comprehensive methodology for predicting solar and wind power production at country scale in France using machine learning models trained with spatially explicit weather data combined with spatial information about production sites capacity. A dataset is built spanning from 2012 to 2023, using daily power production data from RTE (the national grid operator) as the target variable, with daily weather data from ERA5, production sites capacity and location, and electricity prices as input features. Three modeling approaches are explored to handle spatially resolved weather data: spatial averaging over the country, dimension reduction through principal component analysis, and a computer vision architecture to exploit complex spatial relationships. The study benchmarks state-of-the-art machine learning models as well as hyperparameter tuning approaches based on cross-validation methods on daily power production data. Results indicate that cross-validation tailored to time series is best suited to reach low error. We found that neural networks tend to outperform traditional tree-based models, which face challenges in extrapolation due to the increasing renewable capacity over time. Model performance ranges from 4% to 10% in nRMSE for midterm horizon, achieving similar error metrics to local models established at a single-plant level, highlighting the potential of these methods for regional power supply forecasting.
* 24 pages, 4 tables, 18 figures
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Apr 16, 2025
Abstract:The YOLO (You Only Look Once) series has been a leading framework in real-time object detection, consistently improving the balance between speed and accuracy. However, integrating attention mechanisms into YOLO has been challenging due to their high computational overhead. YOLOv12 introduces a novel approach that successfully incorporates attention-based enhancements while preserving real-time performance. This paper provides a comprehensive review of YOLOv12's architectural innovations, including Area Attention for computationally efficient self-attention, Residual Efficient Layer Aggregation Networks for improved feature aggregation, and FlashAttention for optimized memory access. Additionally, we benchmark YOLOv12 against prior YOLO versions and competing object detectors, analyzing its improvements in accuracy, inference speed, and computational efficiency. Through this analysis, we demonstrate how YOLOv12 advances real-time object detection by refining the latency-accuracy trade-off and optimizing computational resources.
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Apr 25, 2025
Abstract:Traditional human reliability analysis (HRA) methods, such as IDHEAS-ECA, rely on expert judgment and empirical rules that often overlook the cognitive underpinnings of human error. Moreover, conducting human-in-the-loop experiments for advanced nuclear power plants is increasingly impractical due to novel interfaces and limited operational data. This study proposes a cognitive-mechanistic framework (COGMIF) that enhances the IDHEAS-ECA methodology by integrating an ACT-R-based human digital twin (HDT) with TimeGAN-augmented simulation. The ACT-R model simulates operator cognition, including memory retrieval, goal-directed procedural reasoning, and perceptual-motor execution, under high-fidelity scenarios derived from a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) simulator. To overcome the resource constraints of large-scale cognitive modeling, TimeGAN is trained on ACT-R-generated time-series data to produce high-fidelity synthetic operator behavior datasets. These simulations are then used to drive IDHEAS-ECA assessments, enabling scalable, mechanism-informed estimation of human error probabilities (HEPs). Comparative analyses with SPAR-H and sensitivity assessments demonstrate the robustness and practical advantages of the proposed COGMIF. Finally, procedural features are mapped onto a Bayesian network to quantify the influence of contributing factors, revealing key drivers of operational risk. This work offers a credible and computationally efficient pathway to integrate cognitive theory into industrial HRA practices.
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Apr 27, 2025
Abstract:High-quality preference data is essential for aligning foundation models with human values through preference learning. However, manual annotation of such data is often time-consuming and costly. Recent methods often adopt a self-rewarding approach, where the target model generates and annotates its own preference data, but this can lead to inaccuracies since the reward model shares weights with the target model, thereby amplifying inherent biases. To address these issues, we propose Anyprefer, a framework designed to synthesize high-quality preference data for aligning the target model. Anyprefer frames the data synthesis process as a cooperative two-player Markov Game, where the target model and the judge model collaborate together. Here, a series of external tools are introduced to assist the judge model in accurately rewarding the target model's responses, mitigating biases in the rewarding process. In addition, a feedback mechanism is introduced to optimize prompts for both models, enhancing collaboration and improving data quality. The synthesized data is compiled into a new preference dataset, Anyprefer-V1, consisting of 58K high-quality preference pairs. Extensive experiments show that Anyprefer significantly improves model alignment performance across four main applications, covering 21 datasets, achieving average improvements of 18.55% in five natural language generation datasets, 3.66% in nine vision-language understanding datasets, 30.05% in three medical image analysis datasets, and 16.00% in four visuo-motor control tasks.
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Apr 24, 2025
Abstract:Long-term time series forecasting plays a pivotal role in various real-world applications. Despite recent advancements and the success of different architectures, forecasting is often challenging due to non-stationary nature of the real-world data, which frequently exhibit distribution shifts and temporal changes in statistical properties like mean and variance over time. Previous studies suggest that this inherent variability complicates forecasting, limiting the performance of many models by leading to loss of non-stationarity and resulting in over-stationarization (Liu, Wu, Wang and Long, 2022). To address this challenge, we introduce a novel architecture, ChoronoAdaptive Network (CANet), inspired by style-transfer techniques. The core of CANet is the Non-stationary Adaptive Normalization module, seamlessly integrating the Style Blending Gate and Adaptive Instance Normalization (AdaIN) (Huang and Belongie, 2017). The Style Blending Gate preserves and reintegrates non-stationary characteristics, such as mean and standard deviation, by blending internal and external statistics, preventing over-stationarization while maintaining essential temporal dependencies. Coupled with AdaIN, which dynamically adapts the model to statistical changes, this approach enhances predictive accuracy under non-stationary conditions. CANet also employs multi-resolution patching to handle short-term fluctuations and long-term trends, along with Fourier analysis-based adaptive thresholding to reduce noise. A Stacked Kronecker Product Layer further optimizes the model's efficiency while maintaining high performance. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets validate CANet's superiority over state-of-the-art methods, achieving a 42% reduction in MSE and a 22% reduction in MAE. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/mertsonmezer/CANet.
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Apr 08, 2025
Abstract:Automatically assessing question quality is crucial for educators as it saves time, ensures consistency, and provides immediate feedback for refining teaching materials. We propose a novel methodology called STRIVE (Structured Thinking and Refinement with multiLLMs for Improving Verified Question Estimation) using a series of Large Language Models (LLMs) for automatic question evaluation. This approach aims to improve the accuracy and depth of question quality assessment, ultimately supporting diverse learners and enhancing educational practices. The method estimates question quality in an automated manner by generating multiple evaluations based on the strengths and weaknesses of the provided question and then choosing the best solution generated by the LLM. Then the process is improved by iterative review and response with another LLM until the evaluation metric values converge. This sophisticated method of evaluating question quality improves the estimation of question quality by automating the task of question quality evaluation. Correlation scores show that using this proposed method helps to improve correlation with human judgments compared to the baseline method. Error analysis shows that metrics like relevance and appropriateness improve significantly relative to human judgments by using STRIVE.
* 5 pages, 6 figures
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Apr 10, 2025
Abstract:We introduce a very general approach to the analysis of signals from their noisy measurements from the perspective of Topological Data Analysis (TDA). While TDA has emerged as a powerful analytical tool for data with pronounced topological structures, here we demonstrate its applicability for general problems of signal processing, without any a-priori geometric feature. Our methods are well-suited to a wide array of time-dependent signals in different scientific domains, with acoustic signals being a particularly important application. We invoke time-frequency representations of such signals, focusing on their zeros which are gaining salience as a signal processing tool in view of their stability properties. Leveraging state-of-the-art topological concepts, such as stable and minimal volumes, we develop a complete suite of TDA-based methods to explore the delicate stochastic geometry of these zeros, capturing signals based on the disruption they cause to this rigid, hyperuniform spatial structure. Unlike classical spatial data tools, TDA is able to capture the full spectrum of the stochastic geometry of the zeros, thereby leading to powerful inferential outcomes that are underpinned by a principled statistical foundation. This is reflected in the power and versatility of our applications, which include competitive performance in processing. a wide variety of audio signals (esp. in low SNR regimes), effective detection and reconstruction of gravitational wave signals (a reputed signal processing challenge with non-Gaussian noise), and medical time series data from EEGs, indicating a wide horizon for the approach and methods introduced in this paper.
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