Automating the Deep Space Network Data Systems; A Case Study in Adaptive Anomaly Detection through Agentic AI

The Deep Space Network (DSN) is NASA's largest network of antenna facilities that generate a large volume of multivariate time-series data. These facilities contain DSN antennas and transmitters that undergo degradation over long periods of time, which may cause costly disruptions to the data flow and threaten the earth-connection of dozens of spacecraft that rely on the Deep Space Network for their lifeline. The purpose of this study was to experiment with different methods that would be able to assist JPL engineers with directly pinpointing anomalies and equipment degradation through collected data, and continue conducting maintenance and operations of the DSN for future space missions around our universe. As such, we have researched various machine learning techniques that can fully reconstruct data through predictive analysis, and determine anomalous data entries within real-time datasets through statistical computations and thresholds. On top of the fully trained and tested machine learning models, we have also integrated the use of a reinforcement learning subsystem that classifies identified anomalies based on severity level and a Large Language Model that labels an explanation for each anomalous data entry, all of which can be improved and fine-tuned over time through human feedback/input. Specifically, for the DSN transmitters, we have also implemented a full data pipeline system that connects the data extraction, parsing, and processing workflow all together as there was no coherent program or script for performing these tasks before. Using this data pipeline system, we were able to then also connect the models trained from DSN antenna data, completing the data workflow for DSN anomaly detection. This was all wrapped around and further connected by an agentic AI system, where complex reasoning was utilized to determine the classifications and predictions of anomalous data.

One Joke to Rule them All? On the (Im)possibility of Generalizing Humor

Humor is a broad and complex form of communication that remains challenging for machines. Despite its broadness, most existing research on computational humor traditionally focused on modeling a specific type of humor. In this work, we wish to understand whether competence on one or more specific humor tasks confers any ability to transfer to novel, unseen types; in other words, is this fragmentation inevitable? This question is especially timely as new humor types continuously emerge in online and social media contexts (e.g., memes, anti-humor, AI fails). If Large Language Models (LLMs) are to keep up with this evolving landscape, they must be able to generalize across humor types by capturing deeper, transferable mechanisms. To investigate this, we conduct a series of transfer learning experiments across four datasets, representing different humor tasks. We train LLMs under varied diversity settings (1-3 datasets in training, testing on a novel task). Experiments reveal that models are capable of some transfer, and can reach up to 75% accuracy on unseen datasets; training on diverse sources improves transferability (1.88-4.05%) with minimal-to-no drop in in-domain performance. Further analysis suggests relations between humor types, with Dad Jokes surprisingly emerging as the best enabler of transfer (but is difficult to transfer to). We release data and code.

GeoOutageKG: A Multimodal Geospatiotemporal Knowledge Graph for Multiresolution Power Outage Analysis

Detecting, analyzing, and predicting power outages is crucial for grid risk assessment and disaster mitigation. Numerous outages occur each year, exacerbated by extreme weather events such as hurricanes. Existing outage data are typically reported at the county level, limiting their spatial resolution and making it difficult to capture localized patterns. However, it offers excellent temporal granularity. In contrast, nighttime light satellite image data provides significantly higher spatial resolution and enables a more comprehensive spatial depiction of outages, enhancing the accuracy of assessing the geographic extent and severity of power loss after disaster events. However, these satellite data are only available on a daily basis. Integrating spatiotemporal visual and time-series data sources into a unified knowledge representation can substantially improve power outage detection, analysis, and predictive reasoning. In this paper, we propose GeoOutageKG, a multimodal knowledge graph that integrates diverse data sources, including nighttime light satellite image data, high-resolution spatiotemporal power outage maps, and county-level timeseries outage reports in the U.S. We describe our method for constructing GeoOutageKG by aligning source data with a developed ontology, GeoOutageOnto. Currently, GeoOutageKG includes over 10.6 million individual outage records spanning from 2014 to 2024, 300,000 NTL images spanning from 2012 to 2024, and 15,000 outage maps. GeoOutageKG is a novel, modular and reusable semantic resource that enables robust multimodal data integration. We demonstrate its use through multiresolution analysis of geospatiotemporal power outages.

Echo State Networks for Bitcoin Time Series Prediction

Forecasting stock and cryptocurrency prices is challenging due to high volatility and non-stationarity, influenced by factors like economic changes and market sentiment. Previous research shows that Echo State Networks (ESNs) can effectively model short-term stock market movements, capturing nonlinear patterns in dynamic data. To the best of our knowledge, this work is among the first to explore ESNs for cryptocurrency forecasting, especially during extreme volatility. We also conduct chaos analysis through the Lyapunov exponent in chaotic periods and show that our approach outperforms existing machine learning methods by a significant margin. Our findings are consistent with the Lyapunov exponent analysis, showing that ESNs are robust during chaotic periods and excel under high chaos compared to Boosting and Na\"ive methods.

Marine Chlorophyll Prediction and Driver Analysis based on LSTM-RF Hybrid Models

Marine chlorophyll concentration is an important indicator of ecosystem health and carbon cycle strength, and its accurate prediction is crucial for red tide warning and ecological response. In this paper, we propose a LSTM-RF hybrid model that combines the advantages of LSTM and RF, which solves the deficiencies of a single model in time-series modelling and nonlinear feature portrayal. Trained with multi-source ocean data(temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, etc.), the experimental results show that the LSTM-RF model has an R^2 of 0.5386, an MSE of 0.005806, and an MAE of 0.057147 on the test set, which is significantly better than using LSTM (R^2 = 0.0208) and RF (R^2 =0.4934) alone , respectively. The standardised treatment and sliding window approach improved the prediction accuracy of the model and provided an innovative solution for high-frequency prediction of marine ecological variables.

AIS-LLM: A Unified Framework for Maritime Trajectory Prediction, Anomaly Detection, and Collision Risk Assessment with Explainable Forecasting

With the increase in maritime traffic and the mandatory implementation of the Automatic Identification System (AIS), the importance and diversity of maritime traffic analysis tasks based on AIS data, such as vessel trajectory prediction, anomaly detection, and collision risk assessment, is rapidly growing. However, existing approaches tend to address these tasks individually, making it difficult to holistically consider complex maritime situations. To address this limitation, we propose a novel framework, AIS-LLM, which integrates time-series AIS data with a large language model (LLM). AIS-LLM consists of a Time-Series Encoder for processing AIS sequences, an LLM-based Prompt Encoder, a Cross-Modality Alignment Module for semantic alignment between time-series data and textual prompts, and an LLM-based Multi-Task Decoder. This architecture enables the simultaneous execution of three key tasks: trajectory prediction, anomaly detection, and risk assessment of vessel collisions within a single end-to-end system. Experimental results demonstrate that AIS-LLM outperforms existing methods across individual tasks, validating its effectiveness. Furthermore, by integratively analyzing task outputs to generate situation summaries and briefings, AIS-LLM presents the potential for more intelligent and efficient maritime traffic management.

Optimizing Federated Learning for Scalable Power-demand Forecasting in Microgrids

Real-time monitoring of power consumption in cities and micro-grids through the Internet of Things (IoT) can help forecast future demand and optimize grid operations. But moving all consumer-level usage data to the cloud for predictions and analysis at fine time scales can expose activity patterns. Federated Learning~(FL) is a privacy-sensitive collaborative DNN training approach that retains data on edge devices, trains the models on private data locally, and aggregates the local models in the cloud. But key challenges exist: (i) clients can have non-independently identically distributed~(non-IID) data, and (ii) the learning should be computationally cheap while scaling to 1000s of (unseen) clients. In this paper, we develop and evaluate several optimizations to FL training across edge and cloud for time-series demand forecasting in micro-grids and city-scale utilities using DNNs to achieve a high prediction accuracy while minimizing the training cost. We showcase the benefit of using exponentially weighted loss while training and show that it further improves the prediction of the final model. Finally, we evaluate these strategies by validating over 1000s of clients for three states in the US from the OpenEIA corpus, and performing FL both in a pseudo-distributed setting and a Pi edge cluster. The results highlight the benefits of the proposed methods over baselines like ARIMA and DNNs trained for individual consumers, which are not scalable.

Leveraging GNN to Enhance MEF Method in Predicting ENSO

Reliable long-lead forecasting of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains a long-standing challenge in climate science. The previously developed Multimodal ENSO Forecast (MEF) model uses 80 ensemble predictions by two independent deep learning modules: a 3D Convolutional Neural Network (3D-CNN) and a time-series module. In their approach, outputs of the two modules are combined using a weighting strategy wherein one is prioritized over the other as a function of global performance. Separate weighting or testing of individual ensemble members did not occur, however, which may have limited the model to optimize the use of high-performing but spread-out forecasts. In this study, we propose a better framework that employs graph-based analysis to directly model similarity between all 80 members of the ensemble. By constructing an undirected graph whose vertices are ensemble outputs and whose weights on edges measure similarity (via RMSE and correlation), we identify and cluster structurally similar and accurate predictions. From which we obtain an optimized subset of 20 members using community detection methods. The final prediction is then obtained by averaging this optimized subset. This method improves the forecast skill through noise removal and emphasis on ensemble coherence. Interestingly, our graph-based selection shows robust statistical characteristics among top performers, offering new ensemble behavior insights. In addition, we observe that while the GNN-based approach does not always outperform the baseline MEF under every scenario, it produces more stable and consistent outputs, particularly in compound long-lead situations. The approach is model-agnostic too, suggesting that it can be applied directly to other forecasting models with gargantuan ensemble outputs, such as statistical, physical, or hybrid models.

Will You Be Aware? Eye Tracking-Based Modeling of Situational Awareness in Augmented Reality

Augmented Reality (AR) systems, while enhancing task performance through real-time guidance, pose risks of inducing cognitive tunneling-a hyperfocus on virtual content that compromises situational awareness (SA) in safety-critical scenarios. This paper investigates SA in AR-guided cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), where responders must balance effective compressions with vigilance to unpredictable hazards (e.g., patient vomiting). We developed an AR app on a Magic Leap 2 that overlays real-time CPR feedback (compression depth and rate) and conducted a user study with simulated unexpected incidents (e.g., bleeding) to evaluate SA, in which SA metrics were collected via observation and questionnaires administered during freeze-probe events. Eye tracking analysis revealed that higher SA levels were associated with greater saccadic amplitude and velocity, and with reduced proportion and frequency of fixations on virtual content. To predict SA, we propose FixGraphPool, a graph neural network that structures gaze events (fixations, saccades) into spatiotemporal graphs, effectively capturing dynamic attentional patterns. Our model achieved 83.0% accuracy (F1=81.0%), outperforming feature-based machine learning and state-of-the-art time-series models by leveraging domain knowledge and spatial-temporal information encoded in ET data. These findings demonstrate the potential of eye tracking for SA modeling in AR and highlight its utility in designing AR systems that ensure user safety and situational awareness.

A Novel Modeling Framework and Data Product for Extended VIIRS-like Artificial Nighttime Light Image Reconstruction (1986-2024)

Artificial Night-Time Light (NTL) remote sensing is a vital proxy for quantifying the intensity and spatial distribution of human activities. Although the NPP-VIIRS sensor provides high-quality NTL observations, its temporal coverage, which begins in 2012, restricts long-term time-series studies that extend to earlier periods. Despite the progress in extending VIIRS-like NTL time-series, current methods still suffer from two significant shortcomings: the underestimation of light intensity and the structural omission. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel reconstruction framework consisting of a two-stage process: construction and refinement. The construction stage features a Hierarchical Fusion Decoder (HFD) designed to enhance the fidelity of the initial reconstruction. The refinement stage employs a Dual Feature Refiner (DFR), which leverages high-resolution impervious surface masks to guide and enhance fine-grained structural details. Based on this framework, we developed the Extended VIIRS-like Artificial Nighttime Light (EVAL) product for China, extending the standard data record backwards by 26 years to begin in 1986. Quantitative evaluation shows that EVAL significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art products, boosting the $\text{R}^2$ from 0.68 to 0.80 while lowering the RMSE from 1.27 to 0.99. Furthermore, EVAL exhibits excellent temporal consistency and maintains a high correlation with socioeconomic parameters, confirming its reliability for long-term analysis. The resulting EVAL dataset provides a valuable new resource for the research community and is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.11888/HumanNat.tpdc.302930.