Time series analysis comprises statistical methods for analyzing a sequence of data points collected over an interval of time to identify interesting patterns and trends.
Passive dynamic walkers are widely adopted as a mathematical model to represent biped walking. The stable locomotion of these models is limited to tilted surfaces, requiring gravitational energy. Various techniques, such as actuation through the ankle and hip joints, have been proposed to extend the applicability of these models to level ground and rough terrain with improved locomotion efficiency. However, most of these techniques rely on impulsive energy injection schemes and torsional springs, which are quite challenging to implement in a physical platform. Here, a new model is proposed, named triggering controlled ankle actuated compass gait (TC-AACG), which allows non-instantaneous compliant ankle pushoff. The proposed technique can be implemented in physical platforms via series elastic actuators (SEAs). Our systematic examination shows that the proposed approach extends the locomotion capabilities of a biped model compared to impulsive ankle pushoff approach. We provide extensive simulation analysis investigating the locomotion speed, mechanical cost of transport, and basin of attraction of the proposed model.
This paper investigates the forecasting performance of Echo State Networks (ESNs) for univariate time series forecasting using a subset of the M4 Forecasting Competition dataset. Focusing on monthly and quarterly time series with at most 20 years of historical data, we evaluate whether a fully automatic, purely feedback-driven ESN can serve as a competitive alternative to widely used statistical forecasting methods. The study adopts a rigorous two-stage evaluation approach: a Parameter dataset is used to conduct an extensive hyperparameter sweep covering leakage rate, spectral radius, reservoir size, and information criteria for regularization, resulting in over four million ESN model fits; a disjoint Forecast dataset is then used for out-of-sample accuracy assessment. Forecast accuracy is measured using MASE and sMAPE and benchmarked against simple benchmarks like drift and seasonal naive and statistical models like ARIMA, ETS, and TBATS. The hyperparameter analysis reveals consistent and interpretable patterns, with monthly series favoring moderately persistent reservoirs and quarterly series favoring more contractive dynamics. Across both frequencies, high leakage rates are preferred, while optimal spectral radii and reservoir sizes vary with temporal resolution. In the out-of-sample evaluation, the ESN performs on par with ARIMA and TBATS for monthly data and achieves the lowest mean MASE for quarterly data, while requiring lower computational cost than the more complex statistical models. Overall, the results demonstrate that ESNs offer a compelling balance between predictive accuracy, robustness, and computational efficiency, positioning them as a practical option for automated time series forecasting.
This work proposes Bonnet, an ultra-fast sparse-volume pipeline for whole-body bone segmentation from CT scans. Accurate bone segmentation is important for surgical planning and anatomical analysis, but existing 3D voxel-based models such as nnU-Net and STU-Net require heavy computation and often take several minutes per scan, which limits time-critical use. The proposed Bonnet addresses this by integrating a series of novel framework components including HU-based bone thresholding, patch-wise inference with a sparse spconv-based U-Net, and multi-window fusion into a full-volume prediction. Trained on TotalSegmentator and evaluated without additional tuning on RibSeg, CT-Pelvic1K, and CT-Spine1K, Bonnet achieves high Dice across ribs, pelvis, and spine while running in only 2.69 seconds per scan on an RTX A6000. Compared to strong voxel baselines, Bonnet attains a similar accuracy but reduces inference time by roughly 25x on the same hardware and tiling setup. The toolkit and pre-trained models will be released at https://github.com/HINTLab/Bonnet.
Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) enables non-invasive brain disorder classification by capturing blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) signals. However, most existing methods rely on functional connectivity (FC) via Pearson correlation, which reduces 4D BOLD signals to static 2D matrices, discarding temporal dynamics and capturing only linear inter-regional relationships. In this work, we benchmark state-of-the-art temporal models (e.g., time-series models such as PatchTST, TimesNet, and TimeMixer) on raw BOLD signals across five public datasets. Results show these models consistently outperform traditional FC-based approaches, highlighting the value of directly modeling temporal information such as cycle-like oscillatory fluctuations and drift-like slow baseline trends. Building on this insight, we propose DeCI, a simple yet effective framework that integrates two key principles: (i) Cycle and Drift Decomposition to disentangle cycle and drift within each ROI (Region of Interest); and (ii) Channel-Independence to model each ROI separately, improving robustness and reducing overfitting. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DeCI achieves superior classification accuracy and generalization compared to both FC-based and temporal baselines. Our findings advocate for a shift toward end-to-end temporal modeling in fMRI analysis to better capture complex brain dynamics. The code is available at https://github.com/Levi-Ackman/DeCI.
Reservoir Computing (RC) has established itself as an efficient paradigm for temporal processing. However, its scalability remains severely constrained by (i) the necessity of processing temporal data sequentially and (ii) the prohibitive memory footprint of high-dimensional reservoirs. In this work, we revisit RC through the lens of structured operators and state space modeling to address these limitations, introducing Parallel Echo State Network (ParalESN). ParalESN enables the construction of high-dimensional and efficient reservoirs based on diagonal linear recurrence in the complex space, enabling parallel processing of temporal data. We provide a theoretical analysis demonstrating that ParalESN preserves the Echo State Property and the universality guarantees of traditional Echo State Networks while admitting an equivalent representation of arbitrary linear reservoirs in the complex diagonal form. Empirically, ParalESN matches the predictive accuracy of traditional RC on time series benchmarks, while delivering substantial computational savings. On 1-D pixel-level classification tasks, ParalESN achieves competitive accuracy with fully trainable neural networks while reducing computational costs and energy consumption by orders of magnitude. Overall, ParalESN offers a promising, scalable, and principled pathway for integrating RC within the deep learning landscape.
Time series forecasting in real-world applications requires both high predictive accuracy and interpretable uncertainty quantification. Traditional point prediction methods often fail to capture the inherent uncertainty in time series data, while existing probabilistic approaches struggle to balance computational efficiency with interpretability. We propose a novel Multi-Expert Learning Distributional Labels (LDL) framework that addresses these challenges through mixture-of-experts architectures with distributional learning capabilities. Our approach introduces two complementary methods: (1) Multi-Expert LDL, which employs multiple experts with different learned parameters to capture diverse temporal patterns, and (2) Pattern-Aware LDL-MoE, which explicitly decomposes time series into interpretable components (trend, seasonality, changepoints, volatility) through specialized sub-experts. Both frameworks extend traditional point prediction to distributional learning, enabling rich uncertainty quantification through Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD). We evaluate our methods on aggregated sales data derived from the M5 dataset, demonstrating superior performance compared to baseline approaches. The continuous Multi-Expert LDL achieves the best overall performance, while the Pattern-Aware LDL-MoE provides enhanced interpretability through component-wise analysis. Our frameworks successfully balance predictive accuracy with interpretability, making them suitable for real-world forecasting applications where both performance and actionable insights are crucial.
Test-Time Scaling enhances the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models by allocating additional inference compute to broaden the exploration of the solution space. However, existing search strategies typically treat rollouts as disposable samples, where valuable intermediate insights are effectively discarded after each trial. This systemic memorylessness leads to massive computational redundancy, as models repeatedly re-derive discovered conclusions and revisit known dead ends across extensive attempts. To bridge this gap, we propose \textbf{Recycling Search Experience (RSE)}, a self-guided, training-free strategy that turns test-time search from a series of isolated trials into a cumulative process. By actively distilling raw trajectories into a shared experience bank, RSE enables positive recycling of intermediate conclusions to shortcut redundant derivations and negative recycling of failure patterns to prune encountered dead ends. Theoretically, we provide an analysis that formalizes the efficiency gains of RSE, validating its advantage over independent sampling in solving complex reasoning tasks. Empirically, extensive experiments on HMMT24, HMMT25, IMO-Bench, and HLE show that RSE consistently outperforms strong baselines with comparable computational cost, achieving state-of-the-art scaling efficiency.
Time series forecasting (TSF) faces challenges in modeling complex intra-channel temporal dependencies and inter-channel correlations. Although recent research has highlighted the efficiency of linear architectures in capturing global trends, these models often struggle with non-linear signals. To address this gap, we conducted a systematic receptive field analysis of convolutional neural network (CNN) TSF models. We introduce the "individual receptive field" to uncover granular structural dependencies, revealing that convolutional layers act as feature extractors that mirror channel-wise attention while exhibiting superior robustness to non-linear fluctuations. Based on these insights, we propose ACFormer, an architecture designed to reconcile the efficiency of linear projections with the non-linear feature-extraction power of convolutions. ACFormer captures fine-grained information through a shared compression module, preserves temporal locality via gated attention, and reconstructs variable-specific temporal patterns using an independent patch expansion layer. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that ACFormer consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance, effectively mitigating the inherent drawbacks of linear models in capturing high-frequency components.
Deep learning has achieved strong performance in Time Series Forecasting (TSF). However, we identify a critical representation paradox, termed Latent Chaos: models with accurate predictions often learn latent representations that are temporally disordered and lack continuity. We attribute this phenomenon to the dominant observation-space forecasting paradigm. Most TSF models minimize point-wise errors on noisy and partially observed data, which encourages shortcut solutions instead of the recovery of underlying system dynamics. To address this issue, we propose Latent Time Series Forecasting (LatentTSF), a novel paradigm that shifts TSF from observation regression to latent state prediction. Specifically, LatentTSF employs an AutoEncoder to project observations at each time step into a higher-dimensional latent state space. This expanded representation aims to capture underlying system variables and impose a smoother temporal structure. Forecasting is then performed entirely in the latent space, allowing the model to focus on learning structured temporal dynamics. Theoretical analysis demonstrates that our proposed latent objectives implicitly maximize mutual information between predicted latent states and ground-truth states and observations. Extensive experiments on widely-used benchmarks confirm that LatentTSF effectively mitigates latent chaos, achieving superior performance. Our code is available in https://github.com/Muyiiiii/LatentTSF.
This paper proposes a unified family of learnable Koopman operator parameterizations that integrate linear dynamical systems theory with modern deep learning forecasting architectures. We introduce four learnable Koopman variants-scalar-gated, per-mode gated, MLP-shaped spectral mapping, and low-rank Koopman operators which generalize and interpolate between strictly stable Koopman operators and unconstrained linear latent dynamics. Our formulation enables explicit control over the spectrum, stability, and rank of the linear transition operator while retaining compatibility with expressive nonlinear backbones such as Patchtst, Autoformer, and Informer. We evaluate the proposed operators in a large-scale benchmark that also includes LSTM, DLinear, and simple diagonal State-Space Models (SSMs), as well as lightweight transformer variants. Experiments across multiple horizons and patch lengths show that learnable Koopman models provide a favorable bias-variance trade-off, improved conditioning, and more interpretable latent dynamics. We provide a full spectral analysis, including eigenvalue trajectories, stability envelopes, and learned spectral distributions. Our results demonstrate that learnable Koopman operators are effective, stable, and theoretically principled components for deep forecasting.