Reasoning-preserved Efficient Distillation of Large Language Models via Activation-aware Initialization

Efficient Distillation (EDistill) compresses large language models (LLMs) by structured pruning parameters and tuning lightweight modules with high training efficiency. Although these EDistilled LLMs achieve state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance on general ability benchmarks relative to similarly sized LLMs, we identify a severe degradation in their multi-step reasoning ability, which we term reasoning collapse. We systematically analyze the geometric origins of reasoning collapse and show that the SOTA EDistill method based on width-reducing projection matrices suffers from eRank collapse, in which the effective rank (eRank) of hidden representations drops. We theoretically explain how singular values of randomly initialized projection matrices become unevenly distributed, leading to eRank collapse and thus token indistinguishability. To address this issue, we propose RED (Reasoning-preserved Efficient Distillation) for LLMs, which introduces activation-aware initialization to initialize projection matrices as channel-selection matrices, thus theoretically mitigating eRank collapse. Experiments on Llama and Qwen series demonstrate that RED substantially recovers reasoning while maintaining high training efficiency and SOTA general ability.

Dr-CiK: A Testbed for Foresight-Driven Agents

Time series forecasting in real-world settings often depends not only on historical observations, but also on external context that must be actively discovered from noisy, heterogeneous information sources. Yet existing context-aided forecasting benchmarks typically assume that the supporting context is already provided, leaving open whether agents can identify it on their own. Therefore, we introduce Dr-CiK, a benchmark for evaluating whether agents can retrieve forecasting-relevant supporting context from a document corpus, filter out distractors, distill the retrieved context into forecast-useful evidence, and generate forecasts supported by that evidence. Through context ablations and evaluations of state-of-the-art deep research and forecasting methods paired together, we show that high-quality context substantially improves forecasting performance in Dr-CiK. However, most existing DR agents recover only a small fraction of the ground-truth supporting evidence (usually <5%), are frequently misled by distractors (>80% distractor citations), and can cause forecasters to perform worse with retrieved context than without context. Our results motivate research on foresight-driven agents that search for the right context to predict the future.

Bridge: Retrieval-Augmented Spatiotemporal Modeling for Urban Delivery Demand

Forecasting urban delivery demand becomes substantially more challenging when newly added service regions lack historical records. Existing spatiotemporal forecasters effectively model spatial dependence once sufficient node histories are available. Still, they remain parametric and therefore struggle to recover short-term operational dynamics in cold-start regions. Geospatial embeddings help identify where a region is and what function it serves, yet they do not directly reveal how a similar region behaves under a comparable temporal context. We propose Bridge, a retrieval-augmented spatiotemporal graph framework that combines an inductive contextual graph backbone with a time-aware memory of region-time windows. For each target region, Bridge retrieves future demand patterns from the memory using both regional context and recent dynamics, and refines the backbone forecast through a gated fusion mechanism. To align retrieval with forecasting utility, we further train the retriever with a future-aware objective that favors entries whose future trajectories best match the target. Experiments on four real-world delivery datasets show that Bridge consistently improves over competitive spatiotemporal baselines in both within-city cold-start and cross-city transfer with partial observations. The results show that retrieval augmentation provides a useful operational memory for cold-start urban demand forecasting when parametric graph generalization alone is insufficient.

An Empirical Study of Multi-Agent Collaboration for Automated Research

As AI agents evolve, the community is rapidly shifting from single Large Language Models (LLMs) to Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) to overcome cognitive bottlenecks in automated research. However, the optimal multi-agent coordination framework for these autonomous agents remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we present a systematic empirical study investigating the comparative efficacy of distinct multi-agent structures for automated machine learning optimization. Utilizing a rigorously controlled, execution-based testbed equipped with Git worktree isolation and explicit global memory, we benchmark a single-agent baseline against two multi-agent paradigms: a subagent architecture (parallel exploration with post-hoc consolidation) and an agent team architecture (experts with pre-execution handoffs). By evaluating these systems under strictly fixed computational time budgets, our findings reveal a fundamental trade-off between operational stability and theoretical deliberation. The subagent mode functions as a highly resilient, high-throughput search engine optimal for broad, shallow optimizations under strict time constraints. Conversely, the agent team topology exhibits higher operational fragility due to multi-author code generation but achieves the deep theoretical alignment necessary for complex architectural refactoring given extended compute budgets. These empirical insights provide actionable guidelines for designing future autoresearch systems, advocating for dynamically routed architectures that adapt their collaborative structures to real-time task complexity.

Overcoming the Modality Gap in Context-Aided Forecasting

Context-aided forecasting (CAF) holds promise for integrating domain knowledge and forward-looking information, enabling AI systems to surpass traditional statistical methods. However, recent empirical studies reveal a puzzling gap: multimodal models often fail to outperform their unimodal counterparts. We hypothesize that this underperformance stems from poor context quality in existing datasets, as verification is challenging. To address these limitations, we introduce a semi-synthetic data augmentation method that generates contexts both descriptive of temporal dynamics and verifiably complementary to numerical histories. This approach enables massive-scale dataset creation, resulting in CAF-7M, a corpus of 7 million context-augmented time series windows, including a rigorously verified test set. We demonstrate that semi-synthetic pre-training transfers effectively to real-world evaluation, and show clear evidence of context utilization. Our results suggest that dataset quality, rather than architectural limitations, has been the primary bottleneck in context-aided forecasting.

ADV-0: Closed-Loop Min-Max Adversarial Training for Long-Tail Robustness in Autonomous Driving

Deploying autonomous driving systems requires robustness against long-tail scenarios that are rare but safety-critical. While adversarial training offers a promising solution, existing methods typically decouple scenario generation from policy optimization and rely on heuristic surrogates. This leads to objective misalignment and fails to capture the shifting failure modes of evolving policies. This paper presents ADV-0, a closed-loop min-max optimization framework that treats the interaction between driving policy (defender) and adversarial agent (attacker) as a zero-sum Markov game. By aligning the attacker's utility directly with the defender's objective, we reveal the optimal adversary distribution. To make this tractable, we cast dynamic adversary evolution as iterative preference learning, efficiently approximating this optimum and offering an algorithm-agnostic solution to the game. Theoretically, ADV-0 converges to a Nash Equilibrium and maximizes a certified lower bound on real-world performance. Experiments indicate that it effectively exposes diverse safety-critical failures and greatly enhances the generalizability of both learned policies and motion planners against unseen long-tail risks.

When Context Is Not Enough: Modeling Unexplained Variability in Car-Following Behavior

Modeling car-following behavior is fundamental to microscopic traffic simulation, yet traditional deterministic models often fail to capture the full extent of variability and unpredictability in human driving. While many modern approaches incorporate context-aware inputs (e.g., spacing, speed, relative speed), they frequently overlook structured stochasticity that arises from latent driver intentions, perception errors, and memory effects -- factors that are not directly observable from context alone. To fill the gap, this study introduces an interpretable stochastic modeling framework that captures not only context-dependent dynamics but also residual variability beyond what context can explain. Leveraging deep neural networks integrated with nonstationary Gaussian processes (GPs), our model employs a scenario-adaptive Gibbs kernel to learn dynamic temporal correlations in acceleration decisions, where the strength and duration of correlations between acceleration decisions evolve with the driving context. This formulation enables a principled, data-driven quantification of uncertainty in acceleration, speed, and spacing, grounded in both observable context and latent behavioral variability. Comprehensive experiments on the naturalistic vehicle trajectory dataset collected from the German highway, i.e., the HighD dataset, demonstrate that the proposed stochastic simulation method within this framework surpasses conventional methods in both predictive performance and interpretable uncertainty quantification. The integration of interpretability and accuracy makes this framework a promising tool for traffic analysis and safety-critical applications.

Markov Regime-Switching Intelligent Driver Model for Interpretable Car-Following Behavior

Accurate and interpretable car-following models are essential for traffic simulation and autonomous vehicle development. However, classical models like the Intelligent Driver Model (IDM) are fundamentally limited by their parsimonious and single-regime structure. They fail to capture the multi-modal nature of human driving, where a single driving state (e.g., speed, relative speed, and gap) can elicit many different driver actions. This forces the model to average across distinct behaviors, reducing its fidelity and making its parameters difficult to interpret. To overcome this, we introduce a regime-switching framework that allows driving behavior to be governed by different IDM parameter sets, each corresponding to an interpretable behavioral mode. This design enables the model to dynamically switch between interpretable behavioral modes, rather than averaging across diverse driving contexts. We instantiate the framework using a Factorial Hidden Markov Model with IDM dynamics (FHMM-IDM), which explicitly separates intrinsic driving regimes (e.g., aggressive acceleration, steady-state following) from external traffic scenarios (e.g., free-flow, congestion, stop-and-go) through two independent latent Markov processes. Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to jointly estimate the regime-specific parameters, transition dynamics, and latent state trajectories. Experiments on the HighD dataset demonstrate that FHMM-IDM uncovers interpretable structure in human driving, effectively disentangling internal driver actions from contextual traffic conditions and revealing dynamic regime-switching patterns. This framework provides a tractable and principled solution to modeling context-dependent driving behavior under uncertainty, offering improvements in the fidelity of traffic simulations, the efficacy of safety analyses, and the development of more human-centric ADAS.

AgentThink: A Unified Framework for Tool-Augmented Chain-of-Thought Reasoning in Vision-Language Models for Autonomous Driving

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) show promise for autonomous driving, yet their struggle with hallucinations, inefficient reasoning, and limited real-world validation hinders accurate perception and robust step-by-step reasoning. To overcome this, we introduce \textbf{AgentThink}, a pioneering unified framework that, for the first time, integrates Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning with dynamic, agent-style tool invocation for autonomous driving tasks. AgentThink's core innovations include: \textbf{(i) Structured Data Generation}, by establishing an autonomous driving tool library to automatically construct structured, self-verified reasoning data explicitly incorporating tool usage for diverse driving scenarios; \textbf{(ii) A Two-stage Training Pipeline}, employing Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) with Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) to equip VLMs with the capability for autonomous tool invocation; and \textbf{(iii) Agent-style Tool-Usage Evaluation}, introducing a novel multi-tool assessment protocol to rigorously evaluate the model's tool invocation and utilization. Experiments on the DriveLMM-o1 benchmark demonstrate AgentThink significantly boosts overall reasoning scores by \textbf{53.91\%} and enhances answer accuracy by \textbf{33.54\%}, while markedly improving reasoning quality and consistency. Furthermore, ablation studies and robust zero-shot/few-shot generalization experiments across various benchmarks underscore its powerful capabilities. These findings highlight a promising trajectory for developing trustworthy and tool-aware autonomous driving models.

Large Language Models for Data Synthesis

Generating synthetic data that faithfully captures the statistical structure of real-world distributions is a fundamental challenge in data modeling. Classical approaches often depend on strong parametric assumptions or manual structural design and struggle in high-dimensional or heterogeneous domains. Recent progress in Large Language Models (LLMs) reveals their potential as flexible, high-dimensional priors over real-world distributions. However, when applied to data synthesis, standard LLM-based sampling is inefficient, constrained by fixed context limits, and fails to ensure statistical alignment. Given this, we introduce LLMSynthor, a general framework for data synthesis that transforms LLMs into structure-aware simulators guided by distributional feedback. LLMSynthor treats the LLM as a nonparametric copula simulator for modeling high-order dependencies and introduces LLM Proposal Sampling to generate grounded proposal distributions that improve sampling efficiency without requiring rejection. By minimizing discrepancies in the summary statistics space, the iterative synthesis loop aligns real and synthetic data while gradually uncovering and refining the latent generative structure. We evaluate LLMSynthor in both controlled and real-world settings using heterogeneous datasets in privacy-sensitive domains (e.g., e-commerce, population, and mobility) that encompass both structured and unstructured formats. The synthetic data produced by LLMSynthor shows high statistical fidelity, practical utility, and cross-data adaptability, positioning it as a valuable tool across economics, social science, urban studies, and beyond.