Benchmarking Tabular Foundation Models for Conditional Density Estimation in Regression

Conditional density estimation (CDE) - recovering the full conditional distribution of a response given tabular covariates - is essential in settings with heteroscedasticity, multimodality, or asymmetric uncertainty. Recent tabular foundation models, such as TabPFN and TabICL, naturally produce predictive distributions, but their effectiveness as general-purpose CDE methods has not been systematically evaluated, unlike their performance for point prediction, which is well studied. We benchmark three tabular foundation model variants against a diverse set of parametric, tree-based, and neural CDE baselines on 39 real-world datasets, across training sizes from 50 to 20,000, using six metrics covering density accuracy, calibration, and computation time. Across all sample sizes, foundation models achieve the best CDE loss, log-likelihood, and CRPS on the large majority of datasets tested. Calibration is competitive at small sample sizes but, for some metrics and datasets, lags behind task-specific neural baselines at larger sample sizes, suggesting that post-hoc recalibration may be a valuable complement. In a photometric redshift case study using SDSS DR18, TabPFN exposed to 50,000 training galaxies outperforms all baselines trained on the full 500,000-galaxy dataset. Taken together, these results establish tabular foundation models as strong off-the-shelf conditional density estimators.

HandVQA: Diagnosing and Improving Fine-Grained Spatial Reasoning about Hands in Vision-Language Models

Understanding the fine-grained articulation of human hands is critical in high-stakes settings such as robot-assisted surgery, chip manufacturing, and AR/VR-based human-AI interaction. Despite achieving near-human performance on general vision-language benchmarks, current vision-language models (VLMs) struggle with fine-grained spatial reasoning, especially in interpreting complex and articulated hand poses. We introduce HandVQA, a large-scale diagnostic benchmark designed to evaluate VLMs' understanding of detailed hand anatomy through visual question answering. Built upon high-quality 3D hand datasets (FreiHAND, InterHand2.6M, FPHA), our benchmark includes over 1.6M controlled multiple-choice questions that probe spatial relationships between hand joints, such as angles, distances, and relative positions. We evaluate several state-of-the-art VLMs (LLaVA, DeepSeek and Qwen-VL) in both base and fine-tuned settings, using lightweight fine-tuning via LoRA. Our findings reveal systematic limitations in current models, including hallucinated finger parts, incorrect geometric interpretations, and poor generalization. HandVQA not only exposes these critical reasoning gaps but provides a validated path to improvement. We demonstrate that the 3D-grounded spatial knowledge learned from our benchmark transfers in a zero-shot setting, significantly improving accuracy of model on novel downstream tasks like hand gesture recognition (+10.33%) and hand-object interaction (+2.63%).

How Open Must Language Models be to Enable Reliable Scientific Inference?

How does the extent to which a model is open or closed impact the scientific inferences that can be drawn from research that involves it? In this paper, we analyze how restrictions on information about model construction and deployment threaten reliable inference. We argue that current closed models are generally ill-suited for scientific purposes, with some notable exceptions, and discuss ways in which the issues they present to reliable inference can be resolved or mitigated. We recommend that when models are used in research, potential threats to inference should be systematically identified along with the steps taken to mitigate them, and that specific justifications for model selection should be provided.

CREval: An Automated Interpretable Evaluation for Creative Image Manipulation under Complex Instructions

Instruction-based multimodal image manipulation has recently made rapid progress. However, existing evaluation methods lack a systematic and human-aligned framework for assessing model performance on complex and creative editing tasks. To address this gap, we propose CREval, a fully automated question-answer (QA)-based evaluation pipeline that overcomes the incompleteness and poor interpretability of opaque Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) scoring. Simultaneously, we introduce CREval-Bench, a comprehensive benchmark specifically designed for creative image manipulation under complex instructions. CREval-Bench covers three categories and nine creative dimensions, comprising over 800 editing samples and 13K evaluation queries. Leveraging this pipeline and benchmark, we systematically evaluate a diverse set of state-of-the-art open and closed-source models. The results reveal that while closed-source models generally outperform open-source ones on complex and creative tasks, all models still struggle to complete such edits effectively. In addition, user studies demonstrate strong consistency between CREval's automated metrics and human judgments. Therefore, CREval provides a reliable foundation for evaluating image editing models on complex and creative image manipulation tasks, and highlights key challenges and opportunities for future research.

A Systematic Empirical Study of Grokking: Depth, Architecture, Activation, and Regularization

Grokking the delayed transition from memorization to generalization in neural networks remains poorly understood, in part because prior empirical studies confound the roles of architecture, optimization, and regularization. We present a controlled study that systematically disentangles these factors on modular addition (mod 97), with matched and carefully tuned training regimes across models. Our central finding is that grokking dynamics are not primarily determined by architecture, but by interactions between optimization stability and regularization. Specifically, we show: (1) \textbf{depth has a non-monotonic effect}, with depth-4 MLPs consistently failing to grok while depth-8 residual networks recover generalization, demonstrating that depth requires architectural stabilization; (2) \textbf{the apparent gap between Transformers and MLPs largely disappears} (1.11$\times$ delay) under matched hyperparameters, indicating that previously reported differences are largely due to optimizer and regularization confounds; (3) \textbf{activation function effects are regime-dependent}, with GELU up to 4.3$\times$ faster than ReLU only when regularization permits memorization; and (4) \textbf{weight decay is the dominant control parameter}, exhibiting a narrow ``Goldilocks'' regime in which grokking occurs, while too little or too much prevents generalization. Across 3--5 seeds per configuration, these results provide a unified empirical account of grokking as an interaction-driven phenomenon. Our findings challenge architecture-centric interpretations and clarify how optimization and regularization jointly govern delayed generalization.

Dynamic LIBRAS Gesture Recognition via CNN over Spatiotemporal Matrix Representation

This paper proposes a method for dynamic hand gesture recognition based on the composition of two models: the MediaPipe Hand Landmarker, responsible for extracting 21 skeletal keypoints of the hand, and a convolutional neural network (CNN) trained to classify gestures from a spatiotemporal matrix representation of dimensions 90 by 21 of those keypoints. The method is applied to the recognition of LIBRAS (Brazilian Sign Language) gestures for device control in a home automation system, covering 11 classes of static and dynamic gestures. For real-time inference, a sliding window with temporal frame triplication is used, enabling continuous recognition without recurrent networks. Tests achieved 95\% accuracy under low-light conditions and 92\% under normal lighting. The results indicate that the approach is effective, although systematic experiments with greater user diversity are needed for a more thorough evaluation of generalization.

Analysing Calls to Order in German Parliamentary Debates

Parliamentary debate constitutes a central arena of political power, shaping legislative outcomes and public discourse. Incivility within this arena signals political polarization and institutional conflict. This study presents a systematic investigation of incivility in the German Bundestag by examining calls to order (CtO; plural: CtOs) as formal indicators of norm violations. Despite their relevance, CtOs have received little systematic attention in parliamentary research. We introduce a rule-based method for detecting and annotating CtOs in parliamentary speeches and present a novel dataset of German parliamentary debates spanning 72 years that includes annotated CtO instances. Additionally, we develop the first classification system for CtO triggers and analyze the factors associated with their occurrence. Our findings show that, despite formal regulations, the issuance of CtOs is partly subjective and influenced by session presidents and parliamentary dynamics, with certain individuals disproportionately affected. An insult towards individuals is the most frequent cause of CtO. In general, male members and those belonging to opposition parties receive more calls to order than their female and coalition-party counterparts. Most CtO triggers were detected in speeches dedicated to governmental affairs and actions of the presidency. The CtO triggers dataset is available at: https://github.com/kalawinka/cto_analysis.

Towards Generalizable Robotic Data Flywheel: High-Dimensional Factorization and Composition

The lack of sufficiently diverse data, coupled with limited data efficiency, remains a major bottleneck for generalist robotic models, yet systematic strategies for collecting and curating such data are not fully explored. Task diversity arises from implicit factors that are sparsely distributed across multiple dimensions and are difficult to define explicitly. To address this challenge, we propose F-ACIL, a heuristic factor-aware compositional iterative learning framework that enables structured data factorization and promotes compositional generalization. F-ACIL decomposes the data distribution into structured factor spaces such as object, action, and environment. Based on the factorized formulation, we develop a factor-wise data collection and an iterative training paradigm that promotes compositional generalization over the high-dimensional factor space, leading to more effective utilization of real-world robotic demonstrations. With extensive real-world experiments, we show that F-ACIL can achieve more than 45% performance gains with 5-10$\times$ fewer demonstrations comparing to that of which without the strategy. The results suggest that structured factorization offers a practical pathway toward efficient compositional generalization in real-world robotic learning. We believe F-ACIL can inspire more systematic research on building generalizable robotic data flywheel strategies. More demonstrations can be found at: https://f-acil.github.io/

The Limits of Learning from Pictures and Text: Vision-Language Models and Embodied Scene Understanding

What information is sufficient to learn the full richness of human scene understanding? The distributional hypothesis holds that the statistical co-occurrence of language and images captures the conceptual knowledge underlying visual cognition. Vision-language models (VLMs) are trained on massive paired text-image corpora but lack embodied experience, making them an ideal test of the distributional hypothesis. We report two experiments comparing descriptions generated by 18 VLMs to those of over 2000 human observers across 15 high-level scene understanding tasks, spanning general knowledge, affordances, sensory experiences, affective responses, and future prediction. Because many tasks lack ground truth answers, we developed a Human-Calibrated Cosine Distance (HCD) metric that measures VLM output similarity to the distribution of human responses, scaled by within-human variability. In Experiment 1, VLMs approached human-level performance on general knowledge tasks, but showed a robust deficit for affordance tasks that resisted prompt engineering and did not improve with newer model releases. In Experiment 2, we tested six mechanistic hypotheses for explaining this affordance gap, finding that the deficit was structural rather than stylistic and was not resolved by providing explicit spatial information. Corpus analyses revealed that image captioning datasets contain sparse agent-addressed affordance language, consistent with Gricean accounts of why embodied knowledge may be systematically underrepresented in language. Together, these findings suggest that distributional learning from images and text is insufficient for affordance-based scene understanding, implying that some dimensions of human visual cognition may require the kind of agent-centered, three-dimensional experience that no photograph or caption can encode.

TopoPilot: Reliable Conversational Workflow Automation for Topological Data Analysis and Visualization

Recent agentic systems demonstrate that large language models can generate scientific visualizations from natural language. However, reliability remains a major limitation: systems may execute invalid operations, introduce subtle but consequential errors, or fail to request missing information when inputs are underspecified. These issues are amplified in real-world workflows, which often exceed the complexity of standard benchmarks. Ensuring reliability in autonomous visualization pipelines therefore remains an open challenge. We present TopoPilot, a reliable and extensible agentic framework for automating complex scientific visualization workflows. TopoPilot incorporates systematic guardrails and verification mechanisms to ensure reliable operation. While we focus on topological data analysis and visualization as a primary use case, the framework is designed to generalize across visualization domains. TopoPilot adopts a reliability-centered two-agent architecture. An orchestrator agent translates user prompts into workflows composed of atomic backend actions, while a verifier agent evaluates these workflows prior to execution, enforcing structural validity and semantic consistency. This separation of interpretation and verification reduces code-generation errors and enforces correctness guarantees. A modular architecture further improves robustness by isolating components and enabling seamless integration of new descriptors and domain-specific workflows without modifying the core system. To systematically address reliability, we introduce a taxonomy of failure modes and implement targeted safeguards for each class. In evaluations simulating 1,000 multi-turn conversations across 100 prompts, including adversarial and infeasible requests, TopoPilot achieves a success rate exceeding 99%, compared to under 50% for baselines without comprehensive guardrails and checks.