Diabetes Prediction and Management Using Machine Learning Approaches

Diabetes has emerged as a significant global health issue, especially with the increasing number of cases in many countries. This trend Underlines the need for a greater emphasis on early detection and proactive management to avert or mitigate the severe health complications of this disease. Over recent years, machine learning algorithms have shown promising potential in predicting diabetes risk and are beneficial for practitioners. Objective: This study highlights the prediction capabilities of statistical and non-statistical machine learning methods over Diabetes risk classification in 768 samples from the Pima Indians Diabetes Database. It consists of the significant demographic and clinical features of age, body mass index (BMI) and blood glucose levels that greatly depend on the vulnerability against Diabetes. The experimentation assesses the various types of machine learning algorithms in terms of accuracy and effectiveness regarding diabetes prediction. These algorithms include Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbors, Naive Bayes, Support Vector Machine, Gradient Boosting and Neural Network Models. The results show that the Neural Network algorithm gained the highest predictive accuracy with 78,57 %, and then the Random Forest algorithm had the second position with 76,30 % accuracy. These findings show that machine learning techniques are not just highly effective. Still, they also can potentially act as early screening tools in predicting Diabetes within a data-driven fashion with valuable information on who is more likely to get affected. In addition, this study can help to realize the potential of machine learning for timely intervention over the longer term, which is a step towards reducing health outcomes and disease burden attributable to Diabetes on healthcare systems

Lightweight Sequential Transformers for Blood Glucose Level Prediction in Type-1 Diabetes

Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) affects millions worldwide, requiring continuous monitoring to prevent severe hypo- and hyperglycemic events. While continuous glucose monitoring has improved blood glucose management, deploying predictive models on wearable devices remains challenging due to computational and memory constraints. To address this, we propose a novel Lightweight Sequential Transformer model designed for blood glucose prediction in T1D. By integrating the strengths of Transformers' attention mechanisms and the sequential processing of recurrent neural networks, our architecture captures long-term dependencies while maintaining computational efficiency. The model is optimized for deployment on resource-constrained edge devices and incorporates a balanced loss function to handle the inherent data imbalance in hypo- and hyperglycemic events. Experiments on two benchmark datasets, OhioT1DM and DiaTrend, demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art methods in predicting glucose levels and detecting adverse events. This work fills the gap between high-performance modeling and practical deployment, providing a reliable and efficient T1D management solution.

Can Copulas Be Used for Feature Selection? A Machine Learning Study on Diabetes Risk Prediction

Accurate diabetes risk prediction relies on identifying key features from complex health datasets, but conventional methods like mutual information (MI) filters and genetic algorithms (GAs) often overlook extreme dependencies critical for high-risk subpopulations. In this study we introduce a feature-selection framework using the upper-tail dependence coefficient ({\lambda}U) of the novel A2 copula, which quantifies how often extreme higher values of a predictor co-occur with diabetes diagnoses (target variable). Applied to the CDC Diabetes Health Indicators dataset (n=253,680), our method prioritizes five predictors (self-reported general health, high blood pressure, body mass index, mobility limitations, and high cholesterol levels) based on upper tail dependencies. These features match or outperform MI and GA selected subsets across four classifiers (Random Forest, XGBoost, Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting), achieving accuracy up to 86.5% (XGBoost) and AUC up to 0.806 (Gradient Boosting), rivaling the full 21-feature model. Permutation importance confirms clinical relevance, with BMI and general health driving accuracy. To our knowledge, this is the first work to apply a copula's upper-tail dependence for supervised feature selection, bridging extreme-value theory and machine learning to deliver a practical toolkit for diabetes prevention.

The Role of AI in Early Detection of Life-Threatening Diseases: A Retinal Imaging Perspective

Retinal imaging has emerged as a powerful, non-invasive modality for detecting and quantifying biomarkers of systemic diseases-ranging from diabetes and hypertension to Alzheimer's disease and cardiovascular disorders but current insights remain dispersed across platforms and specialties. Recent technological advances in optical coherence tomography (OCT/OCTA) and adaptive optics (AO) now deliver ultra-high-resolution scans (down to 5 {\mu}m ) with superior contrast and spatial integration, allowing early identification of microvascular abnormalities and neurodegenerative changes. At the same time, AI-driven and machine learning (ML) algorithms have revolutionized the analysis of large-scale retinal datasets, increasing sensitivity and specificity; for example, deep learning models achieve > 90 \% sensitivity for diabetic retinopathy and AUC = 0.89 for the prediction of cardiovascular risk from fundus photographs. The proliferation of mobile health technologies and telemedicine platforms further extends access, reduces costs, and facilitates community-based screening and longitudinal monitoring. Despite these breakthroughs, translation into routine practice is hindered by heterogeneous imaging protocols, limited external validation of AI models, and integration challenges within clinical workflows. In this review, we systematically synthesize the latest OCT/OCT and AO developments, AI/ML approaches, and mHealth/Tele-ophthalmology initiatives and quantify their diagnostic performance across disease domains. Finally, we propose a roadmap for multicenter protocol standardization, prospective validation trials, and seamless incorporation of retinal screening into primary and specialty care pathways-paving the way for precision prevention, early intervention, and ongoing treatment of life-threatening systemic diseases.

Unsupervised Latent Pattern Analysis for Estimating Type 2 Diabetes Risk in Undiagnosed Populations

The global prevalence of diabetes, particularly type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), is rapidly increasing, posing significant health and economic challenges. T2DM not only disrupts blood glucose regulation but also damages vital organs such as the heart, kidneys, eyes, nerves, and blood vessels, leading to substantial morbidity and mortality. In the US alone, the economic burden of diagnosed diabetes exceeded \$400 billion in 2022. Early detection of individuals at risk is critical to mitigating these impacts. While machine learning approaches for T2DM prediction are increasingly adopted, many rely on supervised learning, which is often limited by the lack of confirmed negative cases. To address this limitation, we propose a novel unsupervised framework that integrates Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) with statistical techniques to identify individuals at risk of developing T2DM. Our method identifies latent patterns of multimorbidity and polypharmacy among diagnosed T2DM patients and applies these patterns to estimate the T2DM risk in undiagnosed individuals. By leveraging data-driven insights from comorbidity and medication usage, our approach provides an interpretable and scalable solution that can assist healthcare providers in implementing timely interventions, ultimately improving patient outcomes and potentially reducing the future health and economic burden of T2DM.

Predicting Diabetes Using Machine Learning: A Comparative Study of Classifiers

Diabetes remains a significant health challenge globally, contributing to severe complications like kidney disease, vision loss, and heart issues. The application of machine learning (ML) in healthcare enables efficient and accurate disease prediction, offering avenues for early intervention and patient support. Our study introduces an innovative diabetes prediction framework, leveraging both traditional ML techniques such as Logistic Regression, SVM, Na\"ive Bayes, and Random Forest and advanced ensemble methods like AdaBoost, Gradient Boosting, Extra Trees, and XGBoost. Central to our approach is the development of a novel model, DNet, a hybrid architecture combining Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) layers for effective feature extraction and sequential learning. The DNet model comprises an initial convolutional block for capturing essential features, followed by a residual block with skip connections to facilitate efficient information flow. Batch Normalization and Dropout are employed for robust regularization, and an LSTM layer captures temporal dependencies within the data. Using a Kaggle-sourced real-world diabetes dataset, our model evaluation spans cross-validation accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and ROC-AUC. Among the models, DNet demonstrates the highest efficacy with an accuracy of 99.79% and an AUC-ROC of 99.98%, establishing its potential for superior diabetes prediction. This robust hybrid architecture showcases the value of combining CNN and LSTM layers, emphasizing its applicability in medical diagnostics and disease prediction tasks.

Predicting Diabetic Macular Edema Treatment Responses Using OCT: Dataset and Methods of APTOS Competition

Diabetic macular edema (DME) significantly contributes to visual impairment in diabetic patients. Treatment responses to intravitreal therapies vary, highlighting the need for patient stratification to predict therapeutic benefits and enable personalized strategies. To our knowledge, this study is the first to explore pre-treatment stratification for predicting DME treatment responses. To advance this research, we organized the 2nd Asia-Pacific Tele-Ophthalmology Society (APTOS) Big Data Competition in 2021. The competition focused on improving predictive accuracy for anti-VEGF therapy responses using ophthalmic OCT images. We provided a dataset containing tens of thousands of OCT images from 2,000 patients with labels across four sub-tasks. This paper details the competition's structure, dataset, leading methods, and evaluation metrics. The competition attracted strong scientific community participation, with 170 teams initially registering and 41 reaching the final round. The top-performing team achieved an AUC of 80.06%, highlighting the potential of AI in personalized DME treatment and clinical decision-making.

Interactive Diabetes Risk Prediction Using Explainable Machine Learning: A Dash-Based Approach with SHAP, LIME, and Comorbidity Insights

This study presents a web-based interactive health risk prediction tool designed to assess diabetes risk using machine learning models. Built on the 2015 CDC BRFSS dataset, the study evaluates models including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, KNN, and Neural Networks under original, SMOTE, and undersampling strategies. LightGBM with undersampling achieved the best recall, making it ideal for risk detection. The tool integrates SHAP and LIME to explain predictions and highlights comorbidity correlations using Pearson analysis. A Dash-based UI enables user-friendly interaction with model predictions, personalized suggestions, and feature insights, supporting data-driven health awareness.

Multimodal Fusion of Glucose Monitoring and Food Imagery for Caloric Content Prediction

Effective dietary monitoring is critical for managing Type 2 diabetes, yet accurately estimating caloric intake remains a major challenge. While continuous glucose monitors (CGMs) offer valuable physiological data, they often fall short in capturing the full nutritional profile of meals due to inter-individual and meal-specific variability. In this work, we introduce a multimodal deep learning framework that jointly leverages CGM time-series data, Demographic/Microbiome, and pre-meal food images to enhance caloric estimation. Our model utilizes attention based encoding and a convolutional feature extraction for meal imagery, multi-layer perceptrons for CGM and Microbiome data followed by a late fusion strategy for joint reasoning. We evaluate our approach on a curated dataset of over 40 participants, incorporating synchronized CGM, Demographic and Microbiome data and meal photographs with standardized caloric labels. Our model achieves a Root Mean Squared Relative Error (RMSRE) of 0.2544, outperforming the baselines models by over 50%. These findings demonstrate the potential of multimodal sensing to improve automated dietary assessment tools for chronic disease management.

A Conjoint Graph Representation Learning Framework for Hypertension Comorbidity Risk Prediction

The comorbidities of hypertension impose a heavy burden on patients and society. Early identification is necessary to prompt intervention, but it remains a challenging task. This study aims to address this challenge by combining joint graph learning with network analysis. Motivated by this discovery, we develop a Conjoint Graph Representation Learning (CGRL) framework that: a) constructs two networks based on disease coding, including the patient network and the disease difference network. Three comorbidity network features were generated based on the basic difference network to capture the potential relationship between comorbidities and risk diseases; b) incorporates computational structure intervention and learning feature representation, CGRL was developed to predict the risks of diabetes and coronary heart disease in patients; and c) analysis the comorbidity patterns and exploring the pathways of disease progression, the pathological pathogenesis of diabetes and coronary heart disease may be revealed. The results show that the network features extracted based on the difference network are important, and the framework we proposed provides more accurate predictions than other strong models in terms of accuracy.